Formed | March 20 and 25, 1948 |
---|---|
Tornadoes confirmed | 2 |
Max. rating1 | F3 tornado |
Fatalities | Several injuries |
Damage | $16 million [1] (1948) ($203 million 2023) |
Areas affected | Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
1Most severe tornado damage; see Fujita scale |
The 1948 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes were two tornadoes which struck Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on March 20 and 25, 1948. Both are estimated to have been equivalent to F3 in intensity on the modern Fujita scale of tornado intensity, [2] which was not devised until 1971. [3] The March 20 tornado was the costliest tornado in Oklahoma history at the time. [4] On March 25, meteorologists at the base noticed the extreme similarity between the weather conditions of that day and March 20, and later in the day issued a "tornado forecast", which was verified when a tornado struck the base that evening. This was the first official tornado forecast, as well as the first successful tornado forecast, in recorded history. [1]
F3 tornado | |
---|---|
Max. rating1 | F3 tornado |
Fatalities | Several injuries |
Damage | $10 million (1948 USD) |
1Most severe tornado damage; see Fujita scale |
Weather forecasting was still crude and prone to large errors in the era before weather satellites and computer modeling. Thunderstorms were not even in the forecast for the evening of March 20. However, around 9:30 pm storms were reported about 20 miles (32 km) to the southwest, and at 9:52 a tornado was sighted near Will Rogers Airport 7 miles (11 km) away, along with a 92-mile-per-hour (148 km/h) wind gust, moving northeast towards the base. [5]
At 10:00, the tornado reached the southwest corner of the base. Illuminated by nearly constant lightning, the tornado was highly visible as it bisected the base, tossing around planes which were parked in the open. The control tower reported a 78-mile-per-hour (126 km/h) wind gust before the windows shattered, injuring several personnel with flying glass. The tornado dissipated at the northeast corner of the base. [5]
The tornado missed most structures on the base, but the damage to expensive military aircraft was substantial. The total damage cost came to around $10 million, or $127 million in 2023 United States dollars. [1] This was the most damaging tornado in Oklahoma up to that date. [6]
In the aftermath of the first tornado, an official inquiry was conducted into the failure to predict the destructive tornado. Air Force investigators came to the conclusion that "due to the nature of the storm it was not forecastable given the present state of the art." They also made recommendations that the meteorological community determine a tornado warning system for the public, as well as a protocol for protecting life and property at military bases. [5]
Both of these investigations began almost immediately. In the days following the tornado, Tinker's meteorologists Major Ernest J. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller investigated surface and upper-air weather data from this and past tornado outbreaks, hoping to be able to identify conditions which were favorable for tornadoes. By March 24, they had compiled several possible tornado indicators, and decided it would be difficult, but possible, to identify large tornado threat areas in the future. [5]
On the morning of March 25, base meteorologists noticed that weather charts for the day were strikingly similar to those before the March 20 tornado. Forecasts issued by the Weather Bureau indicated that almost the same conditions would be present in the evening of March 25 as were present on March 20. In the morning, they issued a forecast for "heavy thunderstorms" effective for 5–6 pm that evening. This would allow the base's commander to alert base personnel that they may institute their brand-new tornado precautions. [5]
As the day wore on, conditions appeared more and more favorable for thunderstorms, and more and more similar to the events of March 20. Weather radar images showed a severe squall line had formed to the west, and weather stations to the west reported cumulonimbus clouds and thunderstorms. In an afternoon meeting, under some pressure from their commanding officer, base meteorologists composed and issued the first official tornado forecast. Although they were aware of the small chance of success, they felt they had no choice, since the conditions were so similar to March 20. [5] Equipment, which could be, was moved to bomb-proof shelters, and base personnel were moved to safer areas. [6]
F3 tornado | |
---|---|
Max. rating1 | F3 tornado |
Fatalities | None |
Damage | $6 million (1948 USD) |
1Most severe tornado damage; see Fujita scale |
Although storms were relatively benign up to the point where they reached Tinker, a supercell formed just west of the base, and at around 6 pm a tornado touched down on the base for the second time in six days. [7] This second tornado caused $6 million in damage, or $76 million in 2023 dollars. However, due to precautions enacted because of the tornado forecast, no injuries were reported, and damage totals could have been much higher. [5] [6]
The tornado prediction proved to be successful, even if its precision was mostly due to chance. Before this point, the Weather Bureau had a policy against issuing tornado warnings, mainly due to fear of panic by the public, and subsequent complacency if forecasts turned out to be false alarms. [6]
Due to lives and costs saved, Fawbush and Miller continued their tornado forecasts, which verified at quite a high rate over the next three years. [6] At first, they kept their forecasts secret. In the spring and summer of 1949, they issued eighteen forecasts for tornadoes within a 100-square-mile (260 km2) area, and all eighteen proved successful. [6] In the subsequent years, while not explicitly using the word "tornado", the Weather Bureau used the pair's forecasts to predict "severe local storms". [6]
The synoptic pattern which occurred on March 25 later became known as the "Miller type-B" pattern and is recognized as one of the most potent severe weather setups. [8]
A tornado is a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the Earth and a cumulonimbus cloud or, in rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud. It is often referred to as a twister, whirlwind or cyclone, although the word cyclone is used in meteorology to name a weather system with a low-pressure area in the center around which, from an observer looking down toward the surface of the Earth, winds blow counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern. Tornadoes come in many shapes and sizes, and they are often visible in the form of a condensation funnel originating from the base of a cumulonimbus cloud, with a cloud of rotating debris and dust beneath it. Most tornadoes have wind speeds less than 180 kilometers per hour, are about 80 meters across, and travel several kilometers before dissipating. The most extreme tornadoes can attain wind speeds of more than 480 kilometers per hour (300 mph), can be more than 3 kilometers (2 mi) in diameter, and can stay on the ground for more than 100 km (62 mi).
A tornado warning is a public warning that is issued by weather forecasting agencies to an area in the direct path of a tornado, or a severe thunderstorm capable of producing one, and advises individuals in that area to take cover. Modern weather surveillance technology such as Doppler weather radar can detect rotation in a thunderstorm, allowing for early warning before a tornado develops. They are also commonly issued based on reported visual sighting of a tornado, funnel cloud, or wall cloud, typically from weather spotters or the public, but also law enforcement or local emergency management. When radar is unavailable or insufficient, such ground truth is crucial. In particular, a tornado can develop in a gap of radar coverage, of which there are several known in the United States.
A tornado watch is a statement issued by weather forecasting agencies to advise the public that atmospheric conditions in a given region may lead to the development of tornadoes within the region over a period of several hours. In addition to the potential for tornado development, thunderstorms that develop within the watch area may contain large hail, straight-line winds, intense rainfall and/or flooding that pose a similar damage risk as the attendant tornado threat.
A severe thunderstorm watch is a statement issued by weather forecasting agencies to advise the public that atmospheric conditions in a given region may lead to the development of severe thunderstorms within the region over a period of several hours. The criteria for issuing a watch varies by country, and may also include torrential rainfall and tornadoes. A watch may also be issued several hours ahead of the arrival of a mature and organized complex of storms, or more clustered or discrete storm activity.
The National Weather Service (NWS) is an agency of the United States federal government that is tasked with providing weather forecasts, warnings of hazardous weather, and other weather-related products to organizations and the public for the purposes of protection, safety, and general information. It is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) branch of the Department of Commerce, and is headquartered in Silver Spring, Maryland, within the Washington metropolitan area. The agency was known as the United States Weather Bureau from 1891 until it adopted its current name in 1970.
On March 18, 1925, one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in recorded history generated at least 12 significant tornadoes and spanned a large portion of the midwestern and southern United States. In all, at least 751 men, women and children were killed and more than 2,298 were injured, making the outbreak the deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. The outbreak generated several destructive tornadoes in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana on the same day, as well as significant tornadoes in Alabama and Kansas. In addition to confirmed tornadoes, there were undoubtedly others with lesser impacts, the occurrences of which have been lost to history.
The 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak was a historic severe weather event that affected the Midwestern and Southeastern United States on April 10–12, 1965. The tornado outbreak produced 55 confirmed tornadoes in one day and 16 hours. The worst part of the outbreak occurred during the afternoon hours of April 11 into the overnight hours going into April 12. The second-largest tornado outbreak on record at the time, this deadly series of tornadoes inflicted a swath of destruction from Cedar County, Iowa, to Cuyahoga County, Ohio, and a swath 450 miles long (724 km) from Kent County, Michigan, to Montgomery County, Indiana. The main part of the outbreak lasted 16 hours and 35 minutes and is among the most intense outbreaks, in terms of tornado strength, ever recorded, including at least four "double/twin funnel" tornadoes. In all, the outbreak killed 266 people, injured 3,662 others, and caused $1.217 billion in damage. In 2023, tornado expert Thomas P. Grazulis created the outbreak intensity score (OIS) as a way to rank various tornado outbreaks. The 1965 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak received an OIS of 238, making it the fourth worst tornado outbreak in recorded history.
From May 2 to 8, 1999, a large tornado outbreak took place across much of the Central and parts of the Eastern United States, as well as southern Canada. During this week-long event, 152 tornadoes touched down in these areas. The most dramatic events unfolded during the afternoon of May 3 through the early morning hours of May 4 when more than half of these storms occurred. Oklahoma experienced its largest tornado outbreak on record, with 70 confirmed. The most notable of these was the F5 Bridge Creek–Moore tornado which devastated Oklahoma City and suburban communities. The tornado killed 36 people and injured 583 others; losses amounted to $1 billion, making it the first billion-dollar tornado in history. Overall, 50 people lost their lives during the outbreak and damage amounted to $1.4 billion. For these reasons, the outbreak is known in Oklahoma as the May 3rd outbreak or the Oklahoma tornado outbreak of 1999.
This article lists various tornado records. The most "extreme" tornado in recorded history was the Tri-State tornado, which spread through parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana on March 18, 1925. It is considered an F5 on the Fujita Scale, holds records for longest path length at 219 miles (352 km) and longest duration at about 3+1⁄2 hours. The 1974 Guin tornado had the highest forward speed ever recorded in a violent tornado, at 75 mph (121 km/h). The deadliest tornado in world history was the Daulatpur–Saturia tornado in Bangladesh on April 26, 1989, which killed approximately 1,300 people. In the history of Bangladesh, at least 19 tornadoes killed more than 100 people each, almost half of the total for the world. The most extensive tornado outbreak on record was the 2011 Super Outbreak, which resulted in 367 tornadoes and 324 tornadic fatalities, whereas the 1974 Super Outbreak was the most intense tornado outbreak on tornado expert Thomas P. Grazulis's outbreak intensity score with 578, as opposed to the 2011 outbreak's 378.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC).
The 1994 Palm Sunday tornado outbreak was the third notable US tornado outbreak to occur on Palm Sunday and the second to take place in the Southeastern United States. The outbreak produced 29 tornadoes from Texas to North Carolina, killing 40 people and injuring 491, and causing $140 million in damage. The deadliest storm of the outbreak, as well as in the US in 1994, was an F4 tornado that devastated Piedmont, Alabama. It struck the Goshen United Methodist Church right in the middle of the Palm Sunday service, collapsing the roof on the congregation and killing 20 people inside, including the Rev. Kelly Clem's 4-year-old daughter Hannah. Two other houses of worship were also destroyed mid-service. The supercell that formed this tornado tracked for 200 miles (322 km) to South Carolina.
On March 28, 1920, a large outbreak of at least 37 tornadoes, 31 of which were significant, took place across the Midwestern and Southern United States. The tornadoes left at least 153 dead and at least 1,215 injured. Many communities and farmers alike were caught off-guard as the storms moved to the northeast at speeds that reached over 60 mph (97 km/h). Most of the fatalities occurred in Georgia (37), Ohio (28), and Indiana (21), while the other states had lesser totals. Little is known about many of the specific tornadoes that occurred, and the list below is only partial.
Joseph G. Galway, was an American meteorologist pioneering in the fields of severe convective storm forecasting and research. He was one of the first forecasters for the Severe Local Storms Unit and the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, and developed widely used synoptic predictors associated with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, such as the jet streak and lifted index.
Convective storm detection is the meteorological observation, and short-term prediction, of deep moist convection (DMC). DMC describes atmospheric conditions producing single or clusters of large vertical extension clouds ranging from cumulus congestus to cumulonimbus, the latter producing thunderstorms associated with lightning and thunder. Those two types of clouds can produce severe weather at the surface and aloft.
From May 3 to May 11, 2003, a prolonged and destructive series of tornado outbreaks affected much of the Great Plains and Eastern United States. Most of the severe activity was concentrated between May 4 and May 10, which saw more tornadoes than any other week-long span in recorded history; 335 tornadoes occurred during this period, concentrated in the Ozarks and central Mississippi River Valley. Additional tornadoes were produced by the same storm systems from May 3 to May 11, producing 363 tornadoes overall, of which 62 were significant. Six of the tornadoes were rated F4, and of these four occurred on May 4, the most prolific day of the tornado outbreak sequence; these were the outbreak's strongest tornadoes. Damage caused by the severe weather and associated flooding amounted to US$4.1 billion, making it the costliest U.S. tornado outbreak of the 2000s. A total of 50 deaths and 713 injuries were caused by the severe weather, with a majority caused by tornadoes; the deadliest tornado was an F4 that struck Madison and Henderson counties in Tennessee, killing 11. In 2023, tornado expert Thomas P. Grazulis created the outbreak intensity score (OIS) as a way to rank various tornado outbreaks. The tornado outbreak sequence of May 2003 received an OIS of 232, making it the fourth worst tornado outbreak in recorded history.
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