2004 Taiwanese legislative election

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2004 Taiwanese legislative election
Flag of the Republic of China.svg
  2001 11 December 2004 2008  

All 225 seats to the Legislative Yuan
113 seats needed for a majority
 Majority partyMinority party
  Zong Tong Chen Shui Bian Xian Sheng Yu Zhao  (Guo Min Da Hui Shi Lu ).jpg Lian Zhan Yuan Chang  (cropped).jpg
Leader Chen Shui-bian Lien Chan
Party DPP Kuomintang
Alliance Pan-Green Pan-Blue
Leader since21 July 200220 March 2000
Last election33.38%, 87 seats28.56%, 68 seats
Seats won8979
Seat changeIncrease2.svg2Increase2.svg11
Popular vote3,471,4293,190,081
Percentage35.72%32.83%
SwingIncrease2.svg2.34pp Increase2.svg4.27pp

 Third partyFourth party
  James Soong election infobox.jpg Huang Wen Zhu .jpg
Leader James Soong Huang Chu-wen
Party People First TSU
Alliance Pan-Blue Pan-Green
Leader since31 March 200012 August 2001
Last election18.57%, 46 seats7.76%, 13 seats
Seats won3412
Seat changeDecrease2.svg12Decrease2.svg1
Popular vote1,350,613756,712
Percentage13.90%7.79%
SwingDecrease2.svg4.67pp Increase2.svg0.03pp

2004 Legislative Yuan election.svg

2004 ROCLY cartogram.svg
Elected member party by seat

President before election

Wang Jin-pyng
Kuomintang

Elected President

Wang Jin-pyng
Kuomintang

The 2004 Taiwanese legislative election was held on 11 December 2004. All 225 seats of the Legislative Yuan were up for election: 168 elected by single non-transferable vote, 41 elected through party-list Proportional representation, eight elected from overseas Chinese constituencies on the basis of the proportion of nationwide votes received by participating political parties, eight elected by popular vote among the aboriginal populations. Members served three-year terms beginning on 1 February 2005, and ending 31 January 2008. The next term served four years.

This was the first election following Pan-Blue coalition candidate Lien Chen's narrow defeat in the presidential election in March. With the results of the presidential election still contested, many saw the legislative election as a referendum on Chen Shui-bian's Government and on the Pan-Blue Coalition's electoral viability. With the failure of the Pan-Green Coalition to win a majority, President Chen Shui-bian found it difficult, as in the past, to enact his policies.[ citation needed ]

Campaign issues

In the 5th Legislative Yuan (2002–2005), the opposition pan-blue coalition held a narrow majority, resulting in much of government-sponsored bills being deadlocked or heavily amended. The pan-blue coalition strongly argued that having a majority pan-green legislature would lead to a "super-president" while the pan-green coalition stated that a majority pan-green legislature was necessary to prevent deadlock and chaos and to finally eliminate the vestiges of the KMT's previous authoritarian government on Taiwan.

A major issue of the election was whether to amend or replace the Constitution of the Republic of China. In his second inaugural address in May 2004, President Chen Shui-bian proposed to hold a referendum in 2006 on an entirely new constitution to be adopted in 2008. The Pan-Green Coalition argued that the current constitution, drafted by the Kuomintang in mainland China in 1947, is outdated and unfit for Taiwan as it was originally designed for all of China. Though President Chen promised not to change the sovereignty status of the Republic of China (which still officially claims all of mainland China and Mongolia), the symbols of the Republic of China, or to declare an independent Taiwan, this proposal drew intense criticism from the People's Republic of China, which saw a new Constitution as a means to further the separation of Taiwan from the mainland. In Taiwan there is a general consensus across party lines that the Constitution needs reworking, but disagreement on the degree and type of reform. The Pan-Blue Coalition opposes enacting a new constitution, seeing the act as unnecessary, but supports amending it. In the summer of 2004, the legislature overwhelmingly passed a series of proposed constitutional amendments to halve the size of the legislature and abolish the National Assembly, among other measures. These measures will have to be approved by the National Assembly (elected ad hoc from the results of the 2004 election).

In addition, other issues were Chen's accusations of a soft coup after his March 2004 victory, as well as legal efforts (which most consider unlikely to succeed) by the leaders of the pan-blue coalition to overturn the results of the March presidential election. In a related issue, there were concerns that the 3-19 shooting incident was staged; an investigatory committee established by the legislature (only by overriding a cabinet veto) was criticized by the pan-green coalition, which refused to appoint any of its members to the committee as mandated by law.

Another initiative that was discussed was a US$18 billion arms deal with the United States. President Chen regarded the arms deal as necessary for the defense of Taiwan against China, but the Pan-Blue Coalition has blocked the deal from passing the legislature, arguing the money should be spent on other measures.

President Chen also complained that the party emblem of the KMT is too similar to the national emblem of the Republic of China, and if the KMT does not change its emblem, a newly elected pan-green legislature will force it. (In response, the KMT noted that its emblem has existed before the ROC and challenged the government to change the national emblem instead.) Chen announced on December 5 that state-owned enterprises and foreign offices bearing the name "China", such as the Chinese Petroleum Corporation, would be renamed to bear the name "Taiwan". The U.S. government objected to this proposal, saying it would "unilaterally change Taiwan's status", but the DPP argued it is meant to avoid confusion and was not politically motivated. Chen reacted to the American concerns by blasting the United States. This appeared to cause a great deal of consternation among American officials with one analyst[ who? ] stating bluntly that President George W. Bush was "more than a little irritated" by Chen.

During the campaign, the KMT had been laying off workers and shedding millions of dollars' worth of assets it accumulated when it monopolized power. Analysts[ who? ] say the downsizing was prompted by fear that a DPP-controlled legislature might call for new investigations of the party's finances.

Campaign tactics

The legislative elections were the last in Taiwan using the single non-transferable vote, as a constitutional amendment was passed in 2005 to convert the election format in the next legislative elections. The new electoral system supported by KMT and DPP, created interesting strategies such as vote allocation, as parties did not want to nominate too many candidates for a district, out of fear that it would divide party votes among too many candidates. In addition, the voting method resulted in complex negotiations between parties with similar ideological beliefs. The need to allocate votes resulted in a system in which political parties took out newspaper ads telling supporters how to vote based on their birthday.

The leaders of the KMT, PFP, and New Party, which all share similar political views, expressed concern over overcrowding. In 2001 elections, the DPP won 40% of the seats even though they only polled 36% of the vote, due in large part to the inability of the KMT, PFP, and New Party to coordinate their electoral strategies. To maintain its majority of the Pan-Blue Coalition, Kuomintang Chairman Lien Chan and People First Party Chairman James Soong proposed in May 2004 to merge their parties. In the election, the New Party ran seven of its eight candidates (the minimum number required to form a legislative caucus) under the KMT banner to avoid splitting the vote though their campaigns were funded and organized by the New Party. However, one candidate—Wu Cheng-tien of Kinmen, whose strongly Chinese unification-supporting district was considered safe—ran and won as a New Party candidate to signify the party's continued existence.

Similarly, negotiations between TSU "Spiritual Leader" Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian occurred, presumably over calls for the TSU and DPP avoid splitting up their votes but not much occurred towards this result.

However, the dynamics of the election have permitted intra-coalition competition, either from candidates not wanting to be "sacrificed" to more popular candidates in another party or from party leaders seeking to increase their proportional representation. For example, the Lee Teng-hui criticized President Chen Shui-bian for equating the "Republic of China" with "Taiwan" saying "If we continue to use the "Republic of China" as the nation's title, China may view our nation (as a rebellion group)...Taiwan itself is a nation" while campaigning for a TSU candidate in danger of losing the race to five other DPP candidates.

Faced with defections by independence supporters to the TSU accusing the DPP as being too moderate (President Chen's senior adviser for international affairs, Lai Shin-yuan, resigned from the administration and won a seat as a TSU candidate), President Chen seemed to be moving his party's campaign towards stronger support for Taiwan independence, calling for the renaming of state-owned enterprises. This strategy seemed to have worked in preventing defections to the TSU—the TSU, predicted to increase its presence to as many as 20 seats instead lost its membership by one seat. However, this might have alienated the center of the electorate and contributed to Pan-Green's overall defeat.

Results

Election results 2004 Taiwan Legislator Election.svg
Election results

The pro Republic of China conservative Pan-Blue Coalition (consisting of the Kuomintang, People First Party, and New Party) retained its majority in the legislature, winning 114 seats, compared to 101 seats won by the Taiwan independence-leaning Pan-Green Coalition (consisting of the Democratic Progressive Party and Taiwan Solidarity Union). The remaining ten seats went to independents and other groups.

A significant result was that voter participation was only 59% and was markedly lower than in previous elections (80% in the previous presidential election). Many commentators were concerned about this as it seemed to reflect public disillusionment with the tone of politics on Taiwan. The election also appeared to call into question the accuracy of public opinion polls, most of which failed to project a pan-blue victory just as they failed to predict the election of Chen Shui-bian. The DPP itself predicted that the pan-green coalition would capture 113 seats, and the TSU predicted that it would win at least 25 seats. On the other hand, the KMT underestimated itself by predicting that the pan-blue coalition altogether would win 109 seats.

Among the notable candidates elected, independent candidate Li Ao won a legislative seat, whereas former DPP chairmen turned pan-blue supporter Shi Ming-teh and Hsu Hsing-liang failed to get elected in their seats. Also of interest is a non-party legislator from Yunlin County, Chang Li-shan, the sister of the former county magistrate who was captured by the police the day before the election on corruption charges.

In their post-election speeches, all of the party spokesman called for moderation as well as unity and cooperation between the parties. Significantly, the pan-blue coalition consistently referred to the country by its legal name of the Republic of China whereas pan-green referred to the country with the term Taiwan.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Democratic Progressive Party 3,471,42935.7289+2
Kuomintang 3,190,08132.8379+11
People First Party 1,350,61313.9034–12
Taiwan Solidarity Union 756,7127.7912–1
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union 353,1643.636New
New Party 12,1370.1210
Labor & Education Worker's Alliance3,1760.030New
Taiwan Independence Party 1,9350.0200
Wisdom Action Party8200.0100
Independents577,2925.944–5
Total9,717,359100.002250
Valid votes9,717,35999.19
Invalid/blank votes78,9400.81
Total votes9,796,299100.00
Registered voters/turnout16,559,25459.16
Source: Election Study Center, CEC

Analysis

Although the party strengths were similar to the election of the 2001 ROC legislative election, but the results were widely seen as a major defeat for President Chen Shui-bian, who had campaigned hoping for an absolute majority for the pan green coalition. Reasons for the result included:

Although the pan-green coalition improved both their seat totals and their vote percentage over the last election, the legislative elections were widely interpreted as a major defeat for the pan-green coalition, given their goal of gaining a majority of seats in the Legislative Yuan. In the aftermath of the election, Chen Shui-bian resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party and was replaced by Su Tseng-Chang.

Some of the consequences of the election were:

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