Of the 34 seats in Parliament, 17 are awarded via a proportional system, where, United Ossetia, the long-time formerly ruling party of former President Anatoly Bibilov, won the most votes, at 31.75%, with Nykhaz of incumbent president Alan Gagloev coming in a close second with 30.59%, with both parties winning 6 seats.[3] However, the other 17 seats are determined via constituencies, where Nykhaz won an additional 4 seats outright to United Ossetia's 1, putting the total seat share at 10 for Nykhaz, making them the largest party, and 7 for United Ossetia.[3] Additionally, 3 independents that were elected announced that they would caucus with Nykhaz in Parliament, increasing their seats to 13, which, coupled with their coalition partner in the People's Party winning 5 seats, puts the governing coalition at 18 seats, the exact amount needed for a majority.[3]
2024 proved to be a pivotal year in the south Caucasus, namely due to the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh resolving the longstanding Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, allowing for normalization between Russia and Turkey, meaning that there will likely be a reduction, or even removal, of Russian peacekeepers from the region altogether.[4] Additionally, Russia has been using a softer approach regarding South Ossetia when compared to Abkhazia, hoping that this will allow for easier harmonization with the Georgian government, which has been notably more conciliatory towards Russia in recent years.[5] Namely, Russia is seemingly supportive of a softer, less Russophilic, South Ossetia if it means a détente with the Georgian Dream-led Georgia. However, should Georgian Dream lose the October Georgian election, this would likely result in the new Georgian government to rally towards the return of control of their borders and evict Russia and their separatists from Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[6] However, several high ranking South Ossetian officials have been in talks with the Russian government regarding the annexation of South Ossetia should Georgia dramatically move in a pro-western direction.[7]
Alan Gagloev has been the President of South Ossetia since his election in 2022. Gagloev, president of the Nykhaz party, was a leading figure of the South Ossetian opposition, characterized for their more pragmatic approach with Russia and the support of domestic economic ventures.[2] However, parliament remained under control of Gagloev's opposition, the South Ossetian political establishment, United Ossetia.[2] Gagloyev is facing opposition from both the Russian government and the South Ossetian public due to Gagloyev's scandalous cabinet which has failed to resolve, and worsened, many of the republic's economic problems.[2] However, the Russian government remains non-committal in their opposition, as Gagloyev has been supportive of South Ossetians fighting in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with by the end of 2023, hundreds of South Ossetians dying in battle there.[2] Pundits from the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute (CACI) have speculated that Russia is going to have to make the choice to either support Gagloyev and redirect funds from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine to keep South Ossetia supportive of the war effort.[2] Or oppose Gagloyev for a more traditional South Ossetian government at the cost of South Ossetia's aid in the war.[2] Additionally, CACI speculated on a third outcome, a status quo, which would cripple the Republic until the 2027 South Ossetian presidential election and could spell total political collapse.[2]
New parties
Since the 2019 election, and namely with Gagloev reverting many of the restrictive election laws, seven new political parties were created to compete in the 2024 election. These include:
On 6 May 2024, Gagloev reinstated many of the repressive election laws, limiting participation to just Nykhas, United Ossetia, the Communist Party, the People’s Party, Unity of the People, Ira Farn, and Unity as well as ending the ability for Ossetians abroad in Abkhazia, a United Ossetia stronghold, to vote, closing its polling station in Sukhumi citing “the impracticality of its operation.”[10] Former allies of Gagloev, Garri Muldarov and David Sanakoyev, who founded the For Justice party, protested being excluded. Claiming that "The ruling party ‘Nykhas’ blatantly disregards the law" and that "The election campaign is conducted outside the boundaries of both law and decency."[10]
After the preliminary results were released Nykhas declared a "decisive" victory in the election, claiming a parliamentary majority.[20] Nykhas was largely supported in the rural countryside, while United Ossetia saw its support from South Ossetia's urban core of Tskhinvali.[21]
During the election, supporters of United Ossetia posted to Telegram claiming fraud, stating that voting stations in United Ossetia strongholds were outfitted with disappearing ink.[20] This, combined with the Central Election Commission (CEC) widely changing the reported vote share several times during the counting exasperated issues; initially United Ossetia was reported to have won 45.67% to Nykhas' 29.59%, before changing the report to say United Ossetia won 32% to Nykhas' 29.93%, while Nykhas has maintained it received 31.17%.[20] United Ossetia's leadership from the front steps of their headquarters demanded that the results from the Vladikavkaz polling station, where supporters claimed disappearing ink pens were used, be nullified and rejected by the CEC, otherwise they would reject the election, and any subsequent government, as legitimate.[20] CEC head Emilia Gagieva refused the demands.[20] On 13 June 2024, the State Information Agency issued a statement from the CEC where they reported that the CEC took the accusations seriously and launched a comprehensive investigation into the allegations of fraud that United Ossetia levied, but that the investigation showed no signs of foul play.[22]
Both the Communist Party and the Ira Farn Party denounced calls for a violent overthrow of the Nykhaz regime, urging for calm and for all parties to observe order and not provoke new crises.[21]Caucasian Knot, interviewing a number of locals and political scientists, concluded that the results of the election were genuine, and that United Ossetia had simply underestimated the power of the rural voter that Nykhaz has centered its regime on.[21]
With the results there is only one opposition party in South Ossetia, United Ossetia, with the People's Party retaining their spot in the governing coalition, and with the Communist Party continuing their policy of supporting the President, regardless of their political affiliation.[23] Nykhas also saw a large overturn in its MPs, with most of the party list being newcomers loyal to Gagloev’s circle.[23] This includes Alan Margiev, Gagloev’s head of the presidential administration, Alan Pliev, Gagloev’s presidential aide, and Ruslan Khubezov, the chairman of Nykhas' committee for youth policy and sports. Additional Nykhas member district representatives are almost exclusively newcomers. [23]
Following the CEC's refusal to investigate their allegations of voter fraud, United Ossetia boycotted the opening of Parliament, at which, Alan Margiev was named the Speaker, and the three vice speaker positions went to Nykhaz's chairwoman Zita Besayeva, and the chairmen of the People's Party and the Communists respectively.[24] Despite this, the CEC's chairwoman refused to certify the results of the election, and held a recount, which saw the Communists drop below the 7% threshold to enter parliament, but where still awarded two seats (one from district results, and the other being the vice speaker since he was already sworn in), while both Nykhaz and United Ossetia had their mandates drop from 7 seats to 6 each.[24] United Osstia continued to claim fraud, claiming that there where only 500 registered voters in the Leningor district but over 700 voted, and accused Nykhaz of being Kartvelophiles, and alleged they bussed in Georgians to vote in the election there.[24] United Ossetia also claimed that four polling stations in Tskhinvali, their stronghold, reported a 0% turnout. The CEC also stated that they issued 20,033 ballots, but received 22,983.[24]
Following the deceleration of victory by Georgian Dream in the 2024 Georgian parliamentary election and its increasing Russophilic positions, the situation in South Ossetia has been described by the Carnegie Endowment as "Present[ing] Moscow With a Difficult Choice."[25] One of the positions that Georgian Dream has taken is that now that they have warmed relations with Russia, that they can reincorporate South Ossetia and Abkhazia with Russian permission.[25]
Sergei Prikhodko had previously outlined a series of steps the Georgian government would need to take to have Russia's blessing to reincorporate the territory as: "The Georgian government changes. That the new leadership designates Saakashvili a war criminal, jails him, and admits that Tbilisi’s actions in August 2008 were a mistake, perhaps even criminal. Then this new government shows it’s ready to turn away from the West toward Russia, return to the Commonwealth of Independent States, reject accession to NATO and even the European Union, instead joining the Collective Security Treaty Organization."[25] To this end, since he made these comments the Georgian Government has changed, Saakashvili has been arrested, and Georgian Dream has "postponed" further negotiations with the EU until 2027 and Georgian Dream leader Bidzina Ivanishvili promised to investigate Saakashvili and other Georgian officials for war crimes due to the 2008 war.[25]
However, this has worried the local politicians and figures from South Ossetia and Abkazhia, who worry about the elimination of their special political status should Russia resign their independence to Georgia.[26]Irakli Kobakhidze claimed by 2030 South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be reintegrated into Georgia.[25] Should this be the case Russia would lose its ability to project power in the Caucuses, towards Turkey, and therefore the only reason they'd permit Georgia to retake control of the territories is if Georgia becomes a staunch Russian ally and allows Russia to station troops within their borders.[26]
Additionally, during the protests due to the 2024–2025 Georgian constitutional crisis South Ossetia cooperated with Georgian authorities and crossed the Georgian-South Ossetian border and arrested two anti-Georgian Dream protesters in Kvemo Nikozi, holding them in a prison in Tskhinvali, for attempting to "organize a channel for the illegal transfer across the South Ossetian-Georgian border of Vladimir Anzorovich Mamardashvili, a serviceman of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation born in 1999, who had deserted from the zone of special military operation.”[27]
Reactions
Abkhazia:[a] Deputy Chairman of the People's Assembly – Parliament of the Republic of Abkhazia Committee on International, Inter-parliamentary Relations and Relations with Compatriots "The elections are being held within the framework of the law, no any violations have been identified. There is very high organization at the polling stations. Falsifications and any manipulations are impossible, because observers from each party are represented at the polling stations, each of whom signs on the back of the ballots. Everything is very transparent".[28]
South Ossetia:[a]Patrick Poppel[de], an AustrianRussophile who is currently employed for the South Ossetian foreign ministry, stated that the elections should be "an example for other countries." Denouncing the Austrian election system for its lack of electable political independents, and praising South Ossetia for the inverse. He also stated that "Western democracy is just bombs and missiles" and denounced "Western Culture."[29]
Azerbaijan: MFA of Azerbaijan "reaffirms its support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and does not recognize the so-called “parliamentary elections” [30]
Estonia: MFA of Estonia "condemns the illegitimate parliamentary elections in Georgia’s South Ossetia region."[31]
Georgia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia condemned "so called elections", stated that it "blatantly violates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia within its internationally recognized borders."[32]
Iceland: MFA of Iceland "unequivocally condemns the sham "parliamentary elections" in Georgia’s occupied South Ossetia" and that “Russia must live up to its obligations under the 2008 cease-fire agreement, withdraw its occupation forces from Georgia and respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”[33]
Japan: The Embassy of Japan in Georgia issued a statement that "Japan does not recognize legitimacy of the so-called parliamentary elections held in Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia on June 9" and that "Japan opposes any attempt to change the internationally recognized borders of Georgia."[34]
Latvia: MFA of Latvia stated that "Latvia condemns and does not recognize holding of the so-called parliamentary elections under Russia’s occupation on 9 June in Georgia’s region of South Ossetia. Latvia strongly supports Georgia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty within its internationally recognised border".[35]
Lithuania: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania published the statement of Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis who "condemns the so-called "parliamentary elections" in occupied Georgia's Tskhinvali region" [36]
Sweden: MFA of Sweden "does not recognize the so-called ‘parliamentary elections’ held in the Georgian region of South Ossetia on 9 June. Sweden fully supports Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity."[37]
United Kingdom: Embassy of UK in Georgia stated that UK doesn't recognize legitimacy of "so called" elections and continues to support Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty within its internationally recognized border.[38]
United States: Assistant of the Secretary of State Department Jim O'Brien stated that "The United States condemns and will not recognize sham parliamentary elections in Russia-occupied South Ossetia being conducted without Georgia's consent. We fully support Georgia's territorial integrity and sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders."[39]
Russia: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia announced that the elections were held in "strict accordance" with national electoral legislation. They also stated that the election was a step towards strengthening South Ossetia's democratic institutions and statehood, and hoped that the new government would choose to continue to pursue bilateral ties with Russia.[40]
Notes
1 2 3 All but six UN members recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of Georgia under illegal occupation by Russian forces
The Communist Party of South Ossetia is a communist party in South Ossetia. The party was founded in 1993. As of 2004, the party claimed a membership of 1,500. The party seeks recognition of the Republic of South Ossetia, which is internationally recognized by most countries as a part of Georgia.
The Republic of South Ossetia – the State of Alania is a partially recognized state in the South Caucasus that declared independence from Georgia during the South Ossetia War (1991–1992). At the time, the Soviet Union had only just recently collapsed. Since 1991, South Ossetia has sought recognition as a sovereign state from the international community. South Ossetia is considered by most of the international community to be a part of Georgia.
The Parliament of South Ossetia is the unicameral legislature of the partially recognized Republic of South Ossetia. The 34 members of parliament are elected using a mixed system of Party-list proportional representation (17) and single-member districts (17). South Ossetia has a multi-party system, and currently 5 political parties are represented in parliament and has 6 independent MPs elected through single-member districts. The parliament is headed by a speaker, who is elected from among the members. Since 15 September 2022 the speaker of parliament is Alan Alborov, one of the four deputees of the Nykhaz party of president Alan Gagloev, after Alan Tadtaev of United Ossetia was forced to resign.
South Ossetia elects on the national level a head of state—the President—and a legislature. The president is elected for a five-year term by the people. The Parliament of South Ossetia has 34 members, elected for a five-year term using party-list proportional representation.
South Ossetian passports are issued to inhabitants of South Ossetia for the purpose of international travel and for the purpose of legal identification within South Ossetia. They were first issued on August 15, 2006. Since South Ossetia is only recognised by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria, many South Ossetians also have Russian passports, which are more practical for international travel.
Parliamentary elections were held in Abkhazia on 10 March 2012, with a second round on 24 March. Voters elected the fifth convocation of the People's Assembly.
Visa requirements for South Ossetian citizens are administrative entry restrictions imposed on citizens of South Ossetia by the authorities of other states.
Lieutenant General Ibrahim Alimbegovich Gazseev is a South Ossetian military leader and government official. He served as the Minister of Defence of South Ossetia from 2016 to 2022.
South Ossetia–Transnistria relations Russian: Приднестровско-югоосетинские отношения) is the bilateral relationship between South Ossetia and the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic (Transnistria). South Ossetia is recognized by five United Nations member states and Transnistria by none. The bilateral relations are mostly symbolic.
Alan Eduardovich Gagloev, also transliterated as Gagloyev, is a South Ossetian politician and former intelligence officer, who is the fifth and current president of South Ossetia since 2022. He also served as chairman of the Nykhaz party from 2020 to 2023.
Nykhas is a political party in South Ossetia founded in 2013 by supporters of Independent president Leonid Tibilov. Its members and supporters are referred to as Nykhasovites in local media.
Konstantin Khasanovich Dzhussoev is a South Ossetian politician serving as the Prime Minister of South Ossetia since 2022.
David Georgievich Sanakoev is an Ossetian separatist, indicted war criminal, politician, diplomat, and international fugitive, who served as Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Ossetia from 2012 to 2015, during the presidency of Leonid Tibilov.
Alan Alborov is an Ossetian politician from partially recognized South Ossetia and former speaker of the Parliament of South Ossetia from September 2022 to June 2024. Alborov has served as the founding chairman of the Nykhaz political party, as well as the mayor of the capital city of Tskhinvali.
Yuri Dzitstsoity , also known by his patronymic, Yuri Albertovich, is an Ossetian politician from the partially recognized Caucasian Republic of South Ossetia, which most of the UN recognizes as part of Georgia, occupied by Russia.
For Justice is a political party in the partially recognized Caucasian republic of South Ossetia. Founded in 2023 by Member of Parliament and former journalist, Harry Muldarov, the primary goal of the party was stated as fighting for truth and justice in South Ossetia. Muldarov also stated that the primary demographic of the new party is the younger generations, and that social media has been one of their key avenues for spreading their messages.
Alan Margiev is an Ossetian politician from the small partially recognized Republic of South Ossetia who, since June 24, 2024, has been the Speaker of the Parliament of South Ossetia.
Ira Farn is a political party in the from the partially recognized Caucasian Republic of South Ossetia, which most of the UN recognizes as part of Georgia, occupied by Russia.
The Development Party is a political party in the partially recognized Caucasian republic of South Ossetia that was formed in the buildup to the 2024 parliamentary election.
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