Elmwood—Transcona

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Elmwood—Transcona
Flag of Manitoba.svg Manitoba electoral district
Elmwood--Transcona 2013 Riding.png
Elmwood—Transcona in relation to other Manitoba federal electoral districts as of the 2013 Representation Order. Dotted line shows Winnipeg city limits.
Federal electoral district
Legislature House of Commons
MP
 
 
 
Leila Dance
New Democratic
District created1987
First contested 1988
Last contested 2024 by-election
District webpage profile, map
Demographics
Population (2021) [1] 101,691
Electors (2015)64,395
Area (km²) [1] 50
Pop. density (per km²)2,033.8
Census division(s) Division No. 11
Census subdivision(s) Winnipeg (part), Springfield (part)

Elmwood—Transcona (formerly Winnipeg—Transcona) is a federal electoral district in Manitoba, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1988. Its population in 2021 was 101,691.

Contents

History

The riding was created in 1987 from Winnipeg North Centre and Winnipeg—Birds Hill ridings.

It was previously named Winnipeg—Transcona from 1987 to 2003. [2]

The riding gained territory from Kildonan—St. Paul and a fraction from Saint Boniface during the 2012 electoral redistribution.

Following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, the riding will lose the area north of Leighton Avenue and west of Raleigh Street to Kildonan—St. Paul and will gain the Navin, Norcan and Dugald areas from Provencher,

Geography

Elmwood–Transcona is located in the northeastern corner of Winnipeg, covering the East Kildonan, Elmwood, Transcona and part of the North Kildonan sections of the city. It covers the neighbourhoods of Chalmers, Eaglemere, East Elmwood, Glenelm, Grassie, Kern Park, Canterbury Park, Kildonan Crossing, Meadows, Munroe East, Munroe West, Peguis, Raidisson, Regent, Rossmere, Transcona South, Mission Gardens, Melrose, Kildare-Redonda, Kildonan Drive, Talbot-Grey, Transcona Yards, Tyne-Tees, Valley Gardens and Victoria West. It covers 50 km2.

In the 2019 and 2021 elections, the NDP have been stronger in the western, more urban part of the riding, especially in Elmwood. Their best neighbourhood in both elections was Glenelm in the West Elmwood Area. The Conservatives saw their best results in the eastern, more suburban part of the riding. Their best neighbourhood in both elections was the Transcona South/Transcona Yards area.

Demographics

As of the Canada 2021 Census

Languages: 75.4% English, 4.5% Tagalog, 4.2% Punjabi, 2.6% French, 1.5% German, 1.4% Spanish, 1.0% Ukrainian
Religions: 50.9% Christian (21.8% Catholic, 4.0% United Church, 2.4% Anglican, 2.4% Lutheran, 2.1% Pentecostal, 1.7% Christian Orthodox, 1.3% Anabaptist, 15.2% Other), 4.2% Sikh, 2.2% Muslim, 1.4% Hindu, 39.4% None
Median income: $40,800 (2020)
Average income: $46,120 (2020)

Racial groups in Elmwood—Transcona (2011−2021)
Racial group2021 [3] 2016 [4] 2011 [5]
Pop. %Pop.%Pop.%
European [a] 57,70559,23062,565
Indigenous 14,23012,39510,385
Filipino 8,6556,7653,725
Southeast Asian 1,4701,0301,065
Black 6,7353,9101,915
South Asian 6,4253,8501,800
Latin American 1,8751,4401,615
Chinese 1,035990865
Korean 115170100
Japanese 160215125
Arab 595260150
West Asian 250220195
Other/multiracial [b] 1,290695455
Total responses100,54091,18584,960
Total population101,69192,73885,906
Notes: Totals greater than 100% due to multiple origin responses.
Demographics based on 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution riding boundaries.

Riding associations

Riding associations are the local branches of political parties:

PartyAssociation nameCEOHQ address
Conservative Elmwood–Transcona Conservative AssociationDaniel Mulder
Liberal Elmwood–Transcona Federal Liberal AssociationDavid Engel
New Democratic Elmwood–Transcona Federal NDP Riding AssociationMichelle Scebenski

Members of Parliament

ParliamentYearsMemberParty
Winnipeg—Transcona
Riding created from Winnipeg North Centre and Winnipeg—Birds Hill
34th  1988–1993   Bill Blaikie New Democratic
35th  1993–1997
36th  1997–2000
37th  2000–2004
Elmwood—Transcona
38th  2004–2006   Bill Blaikie New Democratic
39th  2006–2008
40th  2008–2011 Jim Maloway
41st  2011–2015   Lawrence Toet Conservative
42nd  2015–2019   Daniel Blaikie New Democratic
43rd  2019–2021
44th  2021–2024
 2024–present Leila Dance

Election results

Graph of election results in Elmwood—Transcona (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)
2025 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Leila Dance
Conservative Colin Reynolds
Liberal Ian MacIntyre
People's Collin Watson
Total valid votes/Expense limit
Total rejected ballots
Turnout
Eligible voters
Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024
Resignation of Daniel Blaikie
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
New Democratic Leila Dance 13,59748.18-1.51
Conservative Colin Reynolds12,41544.00+15.87
Liberal Ian MacIntyre1,3624.83-9.92
Green Nicolas Geddert3601.28-0.34
People's Sarah Couture3531.25-4.57
Canadian Future Zbig Strycharz1320.47
Total valid votes28,21999.62
Total rejected ballots1070.38
Turnout28,32639.16-20.46
Eligible voters72,325
New Democratic hold Swing -8.73
Source: Elections Canada [6]
2021 federal election redistributed results [7]
PartyVote %
  New Democratic 20,00149.12
  Conservative 11,58528.45
  Liberal 6,05714.88
  People's 2,4235.95
  Green 6471.59
 Others50.01
2021 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Daniel Blaikie 20,79149.69+4.07$63,992.50
Conservative Rejeanne Caron11,76828.13-9.32$53,284.18
Liberal Sara Mirwaldt6,16914.74+2.42$10,073.29
People's Jamie Cumming2,4355.82+4.64$276.86
Green Devlin Hinchey6761.62-1.80$0.00
Total valid votes/expense limit41,83999.26$106,782.98
Total rejected ballots3140.74+0.03
Turnout42,15359.62-2.72
Eligible voters70,701
New Democratic hold Swing +6.69
Source: Elections Canada [8]
2019 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Daniel Blaikie 19,78645.63+11.49$84,787.58
Conservative Lawrence Toet 16,24037.45+3.45$90,425.22
Liberal Jennifer Malabar5,34612.33-17.18$35,581.50
Green Kelly Manweiler1,4803.41+1.05none listed
People's Noel Gautron5121.18$2,119.25
Total valid votes/expense limit43,36499.28
Total rejected ballots3130.72+0.30
Turnout43,67762.34-3.26
Eligible voters70,062
New Democratic hold Swing +4.02
Source: Elections Canada [9]
2015 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Daniel Blaikie 14,70934.14-10.67$109,753.17
Conservative Lawrence Toet 14,64834.00-12.92$127,718.93
Liberal Andrea Richardson-Lipon12,71329.51+24.32$23,842.58
Green Kim Parke1,0162.36-0.71
Total valid votes/expense limit43,08699.58 $199,824.02
Total rejected ballots1820.42
Turnout43,26866.60
Eligible voters65,961
New Democratic gain from Conservative Swing +1.12
Source: Elections Canada [10] [11] [12]
2011 federal election redistributed results [13]
PartyVote %
  Conservative 16,08646.91
  New Democratic 15,36444.81
  Liberal 1,7795.19
  Green 1,0533.07
 Others70.02
2011 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
Conservative Lawrence Toet 15,29846.40+5.66
New Democratic Jim Maloway 14,99845.49-0.29
Liberal Ilona Niemczyk1,6605.03-1.59
Green Ellen Young1,0173.08-2.78
Total valid votes/expense limit32,97399.66 
Total rejected ballots1120.34+0.02
Turnout33,08555.93+1.89
Eligible voters59,154
Conservative gain from New Democratic Swing +2.97

Source: Elections Canada

2008 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Jim Maloway 14,35545.77−5.07$73,584.88
Conservative Thomas Steen 12,77640.74+8.61$60,628.72
Liberal Wes Penner2,0796.63−5.68$30,542.33
Green Chris Hrynkow1,8395.86+2.23$847.16
Christian Heritage Robert Scott3120.99−0.09$2,735.85
Total valid votes/expense limit31,36199.68$77,369.61
Total rejected ballots1000.32−0.08
Turnout31,46154.04−4.16
Electors on the lists58,216
New Democratic hold Swing −6.84
2006 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Bill Blaikie 16,96750.85−1.14$40,314.57
Conservative Linda West 10,72032.13+6.02$68,007.66
Liberal Tanya Parks4,10812.31−4.50$12,622.61
Green Tanja Hutter1,2113.63+1.17$240.77
Christian Heritage Robert Scott3631.09−0.23$706.54
Total valid votes33,36999.60
Total rejected ballots1330.40+0.12
Turnout33,50258.20+7.55
Electors on the lists57,561
New Democratic hold Swing −3.58
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.
2004 Canadian federal election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Bill Blaikie 15,22151.99+3.84$37,459.54
Conservative Bryan McLeod7,64426.11−5.58$33,737.79
Liberal Tanya Parks4,92316.81−1.55$20,165.52
Green Elijah Gair7192.46$204.72
Christian Heritage Robert Scott3861.32$2,599.64
Marijuana Gavin Whittaker3111.06
Communist Paul Sidon740.25$654.57
Total valid votes29,27899.73
Total rejected ballots800.27
Turnout29,35850.65
Electors on the lists57,965
New Democratic hold Swing +4.71
Percentage change figures are factored for redistribution. Conservative Party percentages are contrasted with the combined Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative percentages from 2000.
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.
2000 federal election redistributed results [14]
PartyVote %
  New Democratic 15,20548.15
  Canadian Alliance 7,96725.23
  Liberal 5,80118.37
  Progressive Conservative 2,0416.46
 Others5661.79

Winnipeg—Transcona, 1996–2003

Map of Winnipeg--Transcona in use from 1996 to 2003 199646014 Winnipeg--Transcona.svg
Map of Winnipeg—Transcona in use from 1996 to 2003
2000 Canadian federal election : Winnipeg—Transcona
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Bill Blaikie 15,68047.85−2.42$35,468.07
Alliance Shawn Rattai8,33625.44+8.21$21,800.25
Liberal Bret Dobbin6,04118.43−3.03$17,596.32
Progressive Conservative Chris Brewer2,1336.51−2.46
Green C. David Nickarz2290.70
Christian Heritage Robert Scott1460.45−0.83$3,639.93
Independent Theresa Ducharme 1180.36−0.13
Communist James Hogaboam870.27$263.77
Total valid votes32,77099.61
Total rejected ballots1270.39−0.21
Turnout32,89758.38−1.97
Electors on the lists56,345
New Democratic hold Swing −5.31
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.
1997 Canadian federal election : Winnipeg—Transcona
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Bill Blaikie 16,64050.27+11.01$37,996
Liberal Rosemary Broadbent7,10521.46−16.90$25,771
Reform Helen Sterzer5,70317.23+3.42$19,506
Progressive Conservative Glenn Buffie2,9688.97+4.01$7,682
Christian Heritage Robert Scott4231.28$3,633
Independent Theresa Ducharme 1610.49$111
Marxist–Leninist Ken Kalturnyk1040.31 $11
Total valid votes33,10499.40
Total rejected ballots1990.60
Turnout33,30360.36
Electors on the lists55,177
New Democratic hold Swing +13.95
Percentage change figures are factored for redistribution.
Sources: Official Results, Elections Canada and Financial Returns, Elections Canada.
1993 federal election redistributed results [15]
PartyVote %
  New Democratic 15,73139.26
  Liberal 15,37138.36
  Reform 5,53113.80
  Progressive Conservative 1,9854.95
 Others1,4533.63

Winnipeg—Transcona, 1987–1996

Map of Winnipeg--Transcona used from 1987 to 1996 198746014 Winnipeg Transcona.svg
Map of Winnipeg—Transcona used from 1987 to 1996
1993 Canadian federal election : Winnipeg—Transcona
PartyCandidateVotes%±%Expenditures
New Democratic Bill Blaikie 16,07438.86−2.26$33,353
Liberal Art Miki 15,85538.33+6.45$45,977
Reform Helen Sterzer5,82914.09$7,111
Progressive Conservative Brett Eckstein2,1125.11−20.51$13,422
National Marnie Johnston9002.18$14,483
Christian Heritage Robert Scott3620.88$2,688
Natural Law Geoff Danyluk1500.36$78
Marxist–Leninist Ken Kalturnyk420.10−0.17$216
Canada Party Bill Tataryn390.09$0
Total valid votes41,363100.00
Total rejected ballots1440.35+0.04
Turnout41,50770.15−5.32
Electors on the lists59,169
New Democratic hold Swing −4.36
Source: Thirty-fifth General Election, 1993: Official Voting Results, Published by the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada. Financial figures taken from official contributions and expenses provided by Elections Canada.
1988 Canadian federal election : Winnipeg—Transcona
PartyCandidateVotes%
New Democratic Bill Blaikie 17,36141.13
Liberal Shirley Timm-Rudolph 13,46031.88
Progressive Conservative Mike Thompson10,81525.62
Western Independence Fred Cameron3080.73
Independent Gerry West1560.37
Marxist–Leninist Karen Naylor1150.27
Total valid votes42,215100.00
Total rejected ballots1300.31
Turnout42,34575.47
Electors on the lists56,110

See also

References

Notes

  1. Statistic includes all persons that did not make up part of a visible minority or an indigenous identity.
  2. Statistic includes total responses of "Visible minority, n.i.e." and "Multiple visible minorities" under visible minority section on census.
  1. 1 2 Statistics Canada: 2012
  2. CBC News (September 20, 2010). "Elmwood - Transcona". CBC News.
  3. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 26, 2022). "Census Profile, 2021 Census of Population". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  4. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (October 27, 2021). "Census Profile, 2016 Census". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  5. Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (November 27, 2015). "NHS Profile". www12.statcan.gc.ca. Retrieved October 22, 2023.
  6. "Election Night Results - Electoral Districts". Elections Canada . Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  7. "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders". Elections Canada . Retrieved April 9, 2024.
  8. "Elmwood—Transcona forty-fourth general election 2021 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada . Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  9. "Elmwood—Transcona forty-third general election 2019 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  10. Elections Canada – Confirmed candidates for Elmwood—Transcona, 30 September 2015
  11. Elections Canada – Preliminary Election Expenses Limits for Candidates Archived August 15, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  12. "Elmwood—Transcona forty-second general election 2015 — Poll-by-poll results". Elections Canada. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  13. Pundits' Guide to Canadian Elections
  14. Election Prediction Project
  15. Pundit's Guide to Canadian Elections - Internet Archive

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