Illegal immigrant population of the United States

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Two men scale the Mexico-United States barrier, 2009 US Navy 090317-N-5253T-016 Two men scale the border fence into Mexico a few hundred yards away from where Seabees from Naval Mobile Construction Battalions (NMCB) 133 and NMCB-14 are building a 1,500 foot-long concrete-lined dr.jpg
Two men scale the Mexico–United States barrier, 2009

The actual size and the origin of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States is uncertain and is difficult to ascertain because of difficulty in accurately counting individuals in this population. Figures from national surveys, administrative data and other sources of information vary widely. By all measures, the population of undocumented immigrants in the USA has declined substantially since 2007. [1] [2] [3] The number of border apprehensions has substantially declined since 2000, the peak year, but more than doubled in the most recent fiscal year to approach 2007 levels. [4]

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Size

Until the last few years, the population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. and southwestern border apprehensions had declined significantly over the previous decade; since then border apprehensions have almost returned to 2007 levels. Selected Unauthorized Immigration Statistics.png
Until the last few years, the population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. and southwestern border apprehensions had declined significantly over the previous decade; since then border apprehensions have almost returned to 2007 levels.

The number of undocumented immigrants peaked at about 12 million in 2007 and since that time has declined. [3] According to the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, the number rose rapidly in the 1990s, "from an estimated 3.5 million in 1990 to a peak of 12.2 million in 2007," then dropped sharply during the Great Recession before stabilizing in 2009. [6] Pew estimated the total population to be 11.1 million in 2014, or approximately 3 percent of the U.S. population. [7] [6] [8] This "is in the same ballpark" as figures from the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which estimated that 11.4 million undocumented immigrants lived in the United States in January 2012. [3] [9] The estimate and trends are also consistent with figures reported by the Center for Migration Studies, which reported that the U.S. illegal immigrant population fell to 10.9 million by January 2016, the lowest number since 2003. [10] A 2018 paper by three Yale School of Management professors estimated that the undocumented immigrant population was in the range of 16 million to 29 million, [11] however the methodology presented in this study has been criticized as leading to vastly overstated results. [11]

Estimation method

The "residual method" is widely used to estimate the undocumented immigrant population of the US. With this method, the known number of legally documented immigrants to the United States is subtracted from the reported U.S. Census number of self-proclaimed foreign-born people (based on immigration records and adjusted by projections of deaths and out-migration) to obtain the total, undocumented immigrant (residual) population. [12] This methodology is used by the US Department of Homeland Security, [13] the Pew Hispanic Center, the Center for Immigration Studies, [14] and the U.S. Census Bureau. Since undocumented immigrants have many reasons for not answering the U.S. Census correctly and since penalties for answering the U.S. Census incorrectly are rarely enforced, it is accepted that it under-counts the number of undocumented immigrants. The users of this methodology assume that 10% of undocumented immigrants are not counted by census takers. [14] The 10% assumption is based on a 2001 University of California survey asked of 829 people born in Mexico and living in Los Angeles whether they responded to census interviewers in the 2000 census with 40% of queried households refusing to answer the survey. [14] Critics claim that the estimate is unreliable for a number of reasons: figures for outmigration are not tracked by the federal government; the proportion of undocumented immigrants who respond to the Census is unknown; the estimate that 10% of undocumented immigrants do not respond to the census is arbitrary and unsupported by a sufficient sample size and geographic spread; and that the self reporting of where one was born relies on the honesty of the person being questioned. [14]

The Pew Research Center estimated in 2016 that there were 11.1 million undocumented immigrants in the US in 2014. [15] These estimates are based on modeling using data from the American Community Survey (ACS) or the Current Population Survey conducted by the United States Census Bureau each year. [16] [11]

A 2018 paper by three Yale School of Management professors yielded similar trajectories of the undocumented immigrant population, with peak growth in the 1990s and early 2000s followed by a plateau from approximately 2008 onward. [16] [11] However, their model yielded an estimate of the numbers of undocumented immigrants of 22.1 million undocumented immigrants as the mean — roughly twice as great as the estimates based on the ACS. [16] [11] Moreover, according to the three authors, their estimate has a 95 percent probability range of 16 million to 29 million. That result, however, was criticized for vastly overstating the true number and for failing to account for the circular flow rate. [16] [11]

Impact of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009

The 2008 global financial crisis has had a large impact on the United States. The construction sector and other areas undocumented immigrants traditionally seek employment shrunk. The recession also led to a surplus of American labor, driving down the benefit of hiring undocumented immigrants. [17] According to the Pew Research Center, in 2007 the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants peaked at 6.9 million and has dropped by more than 1 million to an estimated 5.6 million in 2014. [18]

After the Great Recession, more immigrants actually returned to Mexico rather than migrated to the United States. [7] From 2009 to 2014, 1 million Mexicans and their families left the U.S. for Mexico. U.S. census data for the same period show an estimated 870,000 Mexican nationals left Mexico to return to the U.S. [7] It is hard to track of this because there is no official number of immigrants going to the United States or returning to Mexico every year.

Characteristics

Since about 2014, most undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. have been long-term residents. In 2014, about two-thirds (66%) had been in the U.S. for ten years or more, while just 14% had been in the U.S. for less than five years. [8] [7]

Just as the total population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. has declined since 2007, the proportion of undocumented immigrants in the workforce has also declined; in 2012, illegal immigrants made up 5.1% of the U.S.'s civilian labor force. Unauthorized immigrant workers are over-represented in certain economic sectors, making up 26% of farming, fisheries, and forest workers; 17% of cleaning, maintenance, and groundskeeping workers; 14% of construction workers; and 11% of food preparation workers. [19]

Origins

As of 2017, the majority of undocumented immigrants are not Mexicans, with the percentage of illegal immigrants that are Mexican steadily declining over recent years. [20]

The number of Mexican documented and undocumented immigrants in the United States grew quite rapidly over the 35 years between 1970 and 2004; increasing almost 15-fold from about 760,000 in the 1970 Census to more than 11 million in 2004—an average annual growth rate of more than 8 percent, maintained over more than three decades.[ citation needed ] On average the net Mexican population, both documented and undocumented, living in the United States has grown by about 500,000 per year from 1995 to 2005 with 80 to 85 percent of the growth attributed to unauthorized immigration. [21] There was a net gain of 2,270,000 Mexican immigrants to the US between 1995 and 2000; a net loss of about 20,000 between 2005 and 2010; and a net loss of 140,000 between 2009 and 2014. [18]

The total number of Mexicans residing in the US, with and without authorization, was 11.7 million in 2014, down from the peak of 12.8 million in 2007. [18] The drop is primarily the result of the decrease in the number of unauthorized migrants—which make up 48% of the Mexican population in the US in 2014, down from 54% in 2007. [18]

2014 status

  1. Out of the entire workforce in the United States, 8 million were undocumented immigrants. This number includes immigrants who either found work illegally or are working in people's households under their order. Five percent of those immigrants were unemployed and looking for work. [7]
  2. Mexicans made up 52% of all undocumented immigrants in 2014. There were 5.8 million Mexican undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. that year, down from 6.4 million in 2009, according to the latest Pew Research Center estimates. [7]
  3. California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois accounted for 59% of undocumented immigrants in 2014. [7]


See also

Related Research Articles

Immigration to the United States Overview of immigration to the United States

Immigration to the United States is the international movement of non-United States nationals to reside permanently in the country. Immigration has been a major source of population growth and cultural change throughout much of the United States. history. All Americans, except for Native Americans, can trace their ancestry to immigrants from other nations around the world.

Demographics of the United States Overview of the topic

The United States had an official resident population of 331,449,281 on April 1, 2020, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This figure includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia but excludes the population of five unincorporated U.S. territories as well as several minor island possessions. The United States is the third most populous country in the world. The Census Bureau showed a population increase of 0.8% for the twelve-month period ending in July 2012. Though high by industrialized country standards, this is below the world average annual rate of 1.1%. The total fertility rate in the United States estimated for 2020 is 1.638 children per woman, which is below the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1.

Migrant deaths along the Mexico–United States border

Hundreds of migrants die per year as they attempt to cross into the United States from Mexico illegally. The US Border Patrol reported 294 migrant deaths in the fiscal year 2017, which was lower than in 2016 (322), and any year during the period 2003–2014. Exposure were the leading cause.

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986

The Immigration Reform and Control Act was passed by the 99th United States Congress and signed into law by U.S. President Ronald Reagan on November 6, 1986.

Illegal immigration to the United States is the process of migrating into the United States in violation of federal immigration laws. This can include foreign nationals (aliens) who have entered the United States unlawfully, as well as those who lawfully entered but then remained after the expiration of their visas, parole, TPS, etc. Illegal immigration has been a matter of intense debate in the United States since the 1980s.

Honduran Americans are Americans or US citizens of Honduran heritage, who belong to one or more ethnic groups such as mestizo, white, Lenca, Ladino people, Miskito people, Garifuna, and Creole peoples. The Honduran population at the 2010 Census was 837,694. Hondurans are the eighth largest Latino group in the United States and the third largest Central American population, after Salvadorans and Guatemalans.

Illegal immigration Migration of people across national borders without legal authority

Illegal immigration refers to the migration of people into a country in violation of the immigration laws of that country, or the continued residence without the legal right to live in that country. Illegal immigration tends to be financially upward, from poorer to richer countries. Illegal residence in another country creates the risk of detention, deportation, and/or other sanctions.

Non-Hispanic or Latino whites American ethnic group

Non-Hispanic whites or Non-Latino whites are European Americans, Middle Eastern Americans, and North African Americans as defined by the United States Census Bureau. Americans of European ancestry represent ethnic groups and more than half of the white population are German, Irish, English, Italian and Polish Americans. In the United States, this population was first derived from English settlement of the Americas, as well as settlement by other Europeans such as the Germans and Dutch that began in the 17th century. Continued growth since the early 19th century is attributed to sustained very high birth rates alongside relatively low death rates among settlers and natives alike as well as periodically massive immigration from European countries, especially Germany, Ireland, England, Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, France and Wales, as well as Poland, Russia, and many more countries. It typically refers to an English-speaking American in distinction to Spanish speakers in Mexico and the Southwestern states. In some parts of the country, the term Anglo-American is used to refer to non-Hispanic white English speakers as distinct from Spanish speakers although the term is more frequently used to refer to people of British or English descent and might include white people of Hispanic descent who no longer speak Spanish.

Emigration from Mexico Mexicans moving abroad

Emigration from Mexico is the movement of people from Mexico to other countries. The top destination by far is the United States, by a factor of over 150 to 1 compared to the second most popular destination, Canada.

There are thought to be over half a million undocumented immigrants residing in New York City. They come from many parts of the world, especially Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Caribbean. About 70% of them have paid work, in catering, construction, retail, driving, cleaning, and many other trades; at least in catering, their wages tend to be lower than those of comparable workers.

The economic impact of undocumented immigrants in the United States is challenging to measure, and politically contentious. Research shows that undocumented immigrants increase the size of the U.S. economy/contribute to economic growth, enhance the welfare of natives, contribute more in tax revenue than they collect, reduce American firms' incentives to offshore jobs and import foreign-produced goods, and benefit consumers by reducing the prices of goods and services. Economists estimate that legalization of the undocumented immigrant population would increase the immigrants' earnings and consumption considerably, and increase U.S. gross domestic product.

Second-generation immigrants in the United States are individuals born and raised in the United States who have at least one foreign born parent. Although the term is an oxymoron which is often used ambiguously, this definition is cited by major research centers including the United States Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center.

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Immigration policy for unlawfully present immigrants within the U.S. who entered as minors

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Undocumented youth in the United States are young people living in the United States without U.S. citizenship or other legal immigration status. An estimated 1.1 million undocumented minors resided in the U.S. as of 2010, making up 16% of the undocumented population of 11 million. Undocumented students face unique legal uncertainties and limitations within the United States educational system. They are sometimes called the 1.5 generation, as they have spent a majority of their lives in the United States.

This article delineates the issue of immigration in different countries.

2014 American immigration crisis Surge in immigration along US southern border

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A considerable portion of the United States' population is foreign-born. Undocumented immigrants make up about 28% of the foreign-born residents. A model analyzing data from 1990-2016 estimates the number of undocumented immigrants in the US range from 16.7 million to 22.1 million.

Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement American federal agency

The Victims of Immigration Crime Engagement (VOICE) Office was a U.S. government agency established within the Department of Homeland Security under the Trump administration in February 2017. President Donald Trump directed it be established by Executive Order 13768. The office was dissolved by the Biden administration on June 11, 2021, replaced by the Victims Engagement and Services Line (VESL).

The issue of crimes committed by illegal immigrants to the United States is a topic that is often asserted and debated in politics and the media when discussing Immigration policy in the United States.

References

Specific
  1. 1 2 Department of Homeland Security-Border Security Metrics Report-May 2018
  2. 1 2 Pew Research Center-U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Total Dips to Lowest Level in a Decade-November 2018
  3. 1 2 3 Amy Sherman, Donald Trump wrongly says the number of undocumented immigrants is 30 million or higher, Politifact (July 28, 2015).
  4. ↑ "whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-5-charts". pewresearch.org. November 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2020.
  5. ↑ "whats-happening-at-the-u-s-mexico-border-in-5-charts". pewresearch.org. November 1, 2019. Retrieved May 31, 2020.
  6. 1 2 Jeffrey S. Passel & D'Vera Cohn, Unauthorized immigrant population stable for half a decade, Pew Research Center (September 21, 2016).
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Gonzalez-Barrera, Ana (November 19, 2015). "More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S." Pew Research Center's Hispanic Trends Project. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
  8. 1 2 Jens Manuel Krogstad, Jeffrey S. Passel & D'Vera Cohn (November 3, 2016). "5 facts about illegal immigration in the U.S." Pew Research Center.CS1 maint: uses authors parameter (link)
  9. ↑ Bryan Baker & Nancy Rytina, Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: January 2012, United States Department of Homeland Security (March 2013).
  10. ↑ Jerry Markon (January 20, 2016). "U.S. illegal immigrant population falls below 11 million, continuing nearly decade-long decline, report says". Washington Post.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Fazel-Zarandi M, Feinstein JS, Kaplan EH (September 21, 2018). "The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016". PLoS One . 13 (9): e0201193. Bibcode:2018PLoSO..1301193F. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201193 . PMC   6150478 . PMID   30240392.
  12. ↑ Jeffrey S. Passel (June 2005). "Unauthorized Migrants: Numbers and Characteristics" (PDF). Pew Hispanic Center. p. 7. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 1, 2009. Retrieved January 3, 2007.
  13. ↑ Michael Hoeffer; Christopher Campbell; Nancy Rytina (January 2015). "Estimates of the Unauthorized Immigrant Population Residing in the United States: May 2006" (PDF). US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, Policy Directorate.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Bialik, Carl (May 8, 2010). "In Counting Illegal Immigrants, Certain Assumptions Apply". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 27, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Overall Number of U.S. Unauthorized Immigrants Holds Steady Since 2009". Pew Research Center. September 20, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2019.
  16. 1 2 3 4 Fazel-Zarandi M, Feinstein JS, Kaplan EH (September 21, 2018). "Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates". Yale Insights . Yale School of Management . Retrieved November 2, 2018.
  17. ↑ Preston, Julia (July 31, 2008). "Decline Seen in Numbers of People Here Illegally". The New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2010.
  18. 1 2 3 4 Gonzalez-Barrera, Ana (November 19, 2015). "More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S." Pew Research Center. Retrieved August 4, 2016.
  19. ↑ Jeffrey S. Passel & D'Vera Cohn, Share of Unauthorized Immigrant Workers in Production, Construction Jobs Falls Since 2007: In States, Hospitality, Manufacturing and Construction Are Top Industries, Pew Research Center (March 26, 2015).
  20. ↑ "5 facts about illegal immigration in the U.S."
  21. ↑ Jeffrey S. Passel (March 7, 2006). "Pew Hispanic Center: "The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. – Estimates Based on the March 2005 Current Population Survey"" (PDF). The Mexican-born population in the United States, including both legal and unauthorized migrants, grew by about 500,000 people a year for the past decade. Of the Mexican migrants in the U.S. less than 10 years, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates that approximately 80 to 85% are unauthorized
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