Post-election pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election

Last updated

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election. [1]

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

Liberal/National seats (54)
Marginal
East Hills Glenn Brookes LIB0.4%
Upper Hunter Michael Johnsen NAT2.2%
Monaro John Barilaro NAT2.5%
Lismore Thomas George NAT2.9 v GRN
Coogee Bruce Notley-Smith LIB2.9%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT3.2%
Fairly safe
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB6.2%
Goulburn Pru Goward LIB6.6%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB6.6%
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB6.7%
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB7.6%
Bega Andrew Constance LIB8.2%
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB8.7%
Seven Hills Mark Taylor LIB8.7%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT8.7%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB9.0%
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB9.6%
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB9.7%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT9.7%
Safe
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT10.0% v IND
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT10.9%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB11.5%
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB12.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB12.9%
Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire LIB12.9%
Barwon Kevin Humphries NAT12.9%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB13.0%
Albury Greg Aplin LIB13.2%
Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser NAT14.3%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT15.8%
Epping Damien Tudehope LIB16.2%
Wollondilly Jai Rowell LIB17.3%
Hawkesbury Dominic Perrottet LIB17.8%
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB17.8%
Camden Chris Patterson LIB18.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB18.8%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB18.9%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT19.0%
Cootamundra Katrina Hodgkinson NAT20.4%
Dubbo Troy Grant NAT20.4%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB20.9%
North Shore Jillian Skinner LIB21.2% v GRN
Orange Andrew Gee NAT21.7%
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB21.8%
Murray Adrian Piccoli NAT22.7% v IND
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB22.9% v GRN
Ku-ring-gai Alister Henskens LIB23.0%
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB24.4% v GRN
Manly Mike Baird LIB24.5% v GRN
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB25.2%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB25.7% v GRN
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT27.1%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB28.8% v GRN
Castle Hill Ray Williams LIB29.4%
Labor seats (34)
Marginal
Gosford Kathy Smith ALP0.2%
The Entrance David Mehan ALP0.4%
Strathfield Jodi McKay ALP1.8%
Granville Julia Finn ALP2.1%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP3.4%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP4.7%
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP4.8%
Auburn Luke Foley ALP5.9%
Fairly safe
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP6.9%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP7.3%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP7.4%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP8.1%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP8.1%
Wyong David Harris ALP8.7%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP8.8%
Wollongong Noreen Hay ALP8.9% v IND
Safe
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP10.5 v GRN
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP10.8%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP12.9%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP13.0%
Blacktown John Robertson ALP13.2%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP13.8%
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP14.0%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP14.1%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP15.4%
Canterbury Linda Burney ALP15.7%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP17.0%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP17.2%
Keira Ryan Park ALP17.4%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP17.8%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP20.8%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP20.9%
Lakemba Jihad Dib ALP21.6%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP22.0%
Crossbench seats (5)
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN3.1% v NAT
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN4.7% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND8.1 v LIB
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN9.3% v ALP
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND10.7 v ALP

Related Research Articles

The Division of Mayo is an Australian electoral division located to the east and south of Adelaide, South Australia. Created in the state redistribution of 3 September 1984, the division is named after Helen Mayo, a social activist and the first woman elected to an Australian University Council. The 9,315 km2 rural seat covers an area from the Barossa Valley in the north to Cape Jervis in the south. Taking in the Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island regions, its largest population centre is Mount Barker. Its other population centres are Aldgate, Bridgewater, Littlehampton, McLaren Vale, Nairne, Stirling, Strathalbyn and Victor Harbor, and its smaller localities include American River, Ashbourne, Balhannah, Brukunga, Carrickalinga, Charleston, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon, Crafers, Cudlee Creek, Currency Creek, Delamere, Echunga, Forreston, Goolwa, Gumeracha, Hahndorf, Houghton, Inglewood, Kersbrook, Kingscote, Langhorne Creek, Lobethal, Macclesfield, McLaren Flat, Meadows, Middleton, Milang, Mount Compass, Mount Pleasant, Mount Torrens, Mylor, Myponga, Normanville, Norton Summit, Oakbank, Penneshaw, Piccadilly, Port Elliot, Second Valley, Springton, Summertown, Uraidla, Willunga, Woodchester, Woodside, Yankalilla, and parts of Birdwood, Old Noarlunga and Upper Sturt.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007. The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2006 Victorian state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for theNew South Wales state election 2007.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 Victorian state election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis. The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swings usually tend to cancel each other out. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2009 Queensland state election.

The following is a pendulum based on the outcome of the 2010 federal election and changes since, including the redistributions of seats in South Australia and Victoria. It is a Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, which works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament according to the percentage point margin on a two-candidate-preferred basis. The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. The swings for South Australian and Victorian seats are notional, based on calculations by the AEC.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2002 Victorian state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election.

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Based upon the outcome of the 2007 federal election and changes before the 2010 election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 9 National, and 3 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two party preferred basis.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2014 Victorian state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2015 Queensland state election.

This is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2016 Australian federal election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election.

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2020 Queensland state election.

References

  1. Green, Antony. "New South Wales 2015 Pendulum". ABC Election Blog.