South West Norfolk in the 2024 general election

Last updated

2024 United Kingdom general election
in South West Norfolk
Flag of the United Kingdom.svg
←  2019 4 July 2024
South West Norfolk
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Lab
 Official portrait of Liz Truss (cropped).jpg
Ref
Candidate Terry Jermy Liz Truss Toby McKenzie
Party Labour Conservative Reform UK
Popular vote11,84711,2179,958
Percentage26.7%25.3%22.4%
SwingIncrease2.svg 8.6 pp Decrease2.svg 43.7 pp New
MP before election

Liz Truss
Conservative

Elected MP

Terry Jermy
Labour

An election took place in the East Anglia constituency of South West Norfolk on 4 July 2024, as part of the 2024 United Kingdom general election. Liz Truss, the shortest serving British prime minister in history, was standing for re-election as MP and, despite her having won 70% of the vote at the previous election, she lost her seat with a 43.7% fall in the Conservative vote share. The Spectator labelled the result a "Portillo moment". [1]

Contents

On 2 July, a national poll of voters by Portland Communications showed that Truss was the politician most people (28%) would like to see lose their seat. [2]

Background

Truss had been the Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) for South West Norfolk since 2010. At the 2019 general election she achieved a majority of 26,195 over her nearest rival, [3] making it the 11th safest Conservative seat in the country. [4] Serving as Prime Minister for only 49 days in 2022, Truss's tenure caused chaos in the financial markets. [3] South West Norfolk elected a Labour MP for the first time in the landslide of 1945, like most of the seats in Norfolk. [5] Since 1964 it has been a Conservative constituency.

Though there were a number of major Conservative politicians, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, who were almost certain to lose their seats in 2024, Truss was the only former prime minister standing in the election and it was believed her defeat could be "the ultimate Portillo moment". [6] South West Norfolk had been held by the Conservatives since 1964 and would need a 25% swing to the Labour Party in the 2024 election for them to lose the seat. [4]

A Survation poll on 22 June predicted that every Conservative in the Norfolk area would lose their seat. [7]

Candidates

Liz Truss (Conservative) had been the sitting MP for the constituency since 2010.

James Bagge (Independent) had been part of the local Conservative Party that had tried to stop Truss from being selected for the seat in 2009. A former High Sheriff of Norfolk, Bagge was unhappy with the lack of attention Truss had given to the constituency and had resigned as Deputy Lieutenant of Norfolk in January 2024 in preparation to stand against her in the forthcoming election. [8] [9]

Terry Jermy (Labour) was a councillor for Thetford on Breckland District Council and Norfolk County Council. [3]

Pallavi Devulapalli (Green) was a councillor on King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council, a GP and her party's national spokesperson on health. [3]

Toby McKenzie (Reform) was a former teacher. [3]

Josie Radcliffe (Liberal Democrats) was a councillor for Downham East on King's Lynn and West Norfolk Borough Council and had stood for her party in the 2019 general election. [3]

Campaign

When the election was announced, Truss listed her local achievements in a Facebook post, including securing £20 million of regeneration funding for the town of Thetford. [10] She went to the constituency to campaign in person and, as a former prime minister, was accompanied by close protection officers. [3] She visited a number of towns and villages in the constituency, also attending a D-Day commemoration event in Pickenham. [11] She avoided the one hustings event that took place. [12]

The other candidates tried to make the election into a referendum about Truss's record. They argued that Truss had spent little time on constituency issues and had been a poor constituency MP. A spokesperson for Truss pointed out she held constituency surgeries, but did not advertise them for security reasons. [13]

Jermy received little support from the national Labour Party campaign and had to raise £15,000 for his local campaign via crowdfunding. [12]

Bagge launched his campaign, as a "moderate" Independent candidate, on the same date in April 2024 that Truss launched her latest book Ten Years to Save the West . [12] He received endorsements from former Conservative ministers David Gauke and Rory Stewart. Former minister Dominic Grieve campaigned in the constituency with him. [12]

McKenzie could only campaign for Reform at the weekends because he had a full-time job. He said he was realistically hoping to raise the profile of Reform in the constituency. [14]

On 30 June, there were mixed reports about the likely result. A polling prediction by the Financial Times showed that Labour could beat the Conservatives into second place by a small 1.7% margin, with 32.1% of the vote. [4] [15] Many voters were unenthusiastic or undecided. Though Bagge was unlikely to win the seat as an Independent, it was felt that the traditional Conservative vote might be split, allowing the Labour candidate to win. [4]

Results

General election 2024: South West Norfolk [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Terry Jermy 11,847 26.7 +8.6
Conservative Liz Truss [17] 11,21725.3−43.7
Reform UK Toby McKenzie9,95822.4New
Independent James Bagge [18] [19] 6,28214.2New
Liberal Democrats Josie Ratcliffe2,6185.9−2.2
Green Pallavi Devulapalli1,8384.1+1.1
Monster Raving Loony Earl Elvis of East Anglia3380.7−0.9
Heritage Gary Conway1600.4New
Communist Lorraine Douglas770.2New
Majority6301.4−49.5
Turnout 44,33559−7
Labour gain from Conservative Swing +26.2

South West Norfolk was the final result to be declared in Norfolk and Truss arrived at the count on Friday morning with only seconds to spare. [20] She lost the seat to Labour by 630 votes and did not give a concession speech. [21]

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References

  1. ↑ Steerpike (5 July 2024). "Watch: Liz Truss loses her seat". The Spectator. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  2. ↑ Schofield, Kevin (2 July 2024). "Exclusive: Voters Want Liz Truss To Be This Election's 'Michael Portillo Moment'". Huffington Post . Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Worden, Clare (18 June 2024). "Liz Truss: 'People surprised to see me on doorstep'". BBC News. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Bristow, Tom (30 June 2024). "Liz Truss battles to save her skin at UK election". Politico . Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  5. ↑ "General Election: Battle heats up in South Norfolk". BBC News. 21 June 2024. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  6. ↑ Ford, Robert (30 June 2024). "Ten things to watch as the UK general election results roll in". The Observer. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  7. ↑ Storey, Eleanor (22 June 2024). "Tories could face wipeout in Norfolk, according to new poll". Diss Express. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  8. ↑ Storey, Eleanor (6 January 2024). "Turnip Taliban's James Bagge to stand against Liz Truss". Eastern Daily Press. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  9. ↑ Walters, Simon (6 January 2024). "Turnip Taliban bid to unseat Liz Truss". Independent.co.uk. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  10. ↑ Bardsley, Daniel (30 May 2024). "With her reputation battered, can 49-day prime minister Liz Truss win another term as MP?". The National UK . Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  11. ↑ Johnston, Kris (30 June 2024). "General election 2024: Liz Truss insists she is 'not complacent' ahead of South West Norfolk vote". Fenland Citizen. Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  12. 1 2 3 4 Ben, Riley-Smith (2 July 2024). "The unlikely revolutionary hoping to unseat Liz Truss". The Telegraph . Retrieved 4 July 2024.
  13. ↑ McCaffrey, Darren (23 June 2024). "Liz Truss' constituency hangs in the balance after voters look to cast ballots on her record as PM". Sky News. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
  14. ↑ Kris, Johnston (28 June 2024). "Election Exclusives: Reform UK candidate Toby McKenzie 'in it to win it' against Liz Truss in South West Norfolk". Lynn News. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  15. ↑ "Predict the UK general election result - South West Norfolk". Financial Times . Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  16. ↑ "Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll" (PDF). Borough Council of King's Lynn and West Norfolk . 7 June 2024. Retrieved 8 June 2024.
  17. ↑ "Liz Truss reselected as South West Norfolk election candidate". BBC News. 22 February 2023. Retrieved 2 December 2023.
  18. ↑ "Former high sheriff of Norfolk and 'Turnip Taliban' member James Bagge reveals intention to stand as Independent candidate in challenge to Liz Truss for South West Norfolk constituency". Lynne News. 8 January 2024. Retrieved 15 April 2024.
  19. ↑ "Why Norfolk's true-blue Tories are on a mission to unseat Liz Truss". The Times. 14 April 2024. Retrieved 15 April 2024.
  20. ↑ "Truss loses seat on bruising night for Tories in Norfolk". BBC News. 5 July 2024. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
  21. ↑ Stacey, Kiran (5 July 2024). "Former Tory prime minister Liz Truss loses her seat to Labour". theguardian.com. Retrieved 5 July 2024.
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