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The 2024 United Kingdom general election will be held on 4 July 2024. These are the target seats for each of the political parties, according to notional results from the previous election in 2019. [1] These marginal seats are listed by notional swing required for each party to gain the seat. [2] They are not necessarily the seats that the parties are choosing to target. [3]
Due to boundary changes following the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, these target seats are determined by notional results of the previous election using the new constituencies as if they were contested in 2019. [4]
The target seats for Reform UK are based on results of the Brexit Party in 2019. [10] The party didn't contest Conservative-held seats so their target seats based on the 2019 result are primarily in North East England and Wales. [11]
Scottish National Party target seats [15] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Conservative Party | 0.79% | |||
2 | Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative Party | 1.48% | |||
3 | Aberdeenshire North and Moray East [note 5] | Conservative Party | 2.61% | |||
4 | Edinburgh West | Liberal Democrats | 2.62% | |||
5 | Gordon and Buchan [note 5] [note 22] | Conservative Party | 3.39% | |||
6 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Conservative Party | 4.26% | |||
7 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Conservative Party | 4.84% | |||
8 | Orkney and Shetland | Liberal Democrats | 5.41% | |||
9 | Edinburgh South | Labour Party | 10.18% | |||
Other seats the SNP is targeting | ||||||
- | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross [note 23] | Scottish National Party [note 23] | 5.00% | |||
- | North East Fife [note 24] | Scottish National Party [note 24] | 1.00% | |||
- | Rutherglen and Hamilton West [note 25] | Scottish National Party [note 25] | 15% [note 25] |
Plaid Cymru target seats [16] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Ynys Mon | Conservative Party | 3.48% | |||
2 | Caerfyrddin [note 5] | Conservative Party | 4.25% | |||
3 | Llanelli | Labour Party | 9.53% | |||
4 | Caerphilly | Labour Party | 14.59% | |||
5 | Pontypridd | Labour Party | 17.87% | |||
6 | Neath and Swansea East [note 5] | Labour Party | 19.70% |
Green Party of England and Wales, Green Party Northern Ireland and Scottish Greens target seats [17] | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing required | Winning party 2024 | ||
1 | Bristol Central [note 5] | Labour Party | 16.23% | |||
2 | Isle of Wight West [note 5] | Conservative Party | 19.30% | |||
3 | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scottish National Party | 20.26% | |||
4 | West Tyrone [ citation needed ] | Sinn Féin | 20.53% | |||
5 | Dunfermline and Dollar [note 5] | Scottish National Party | 21.35% | |||
6 | Frome and East Somerset [note 5] | Conservative Party | 21.61% | |||
7 | Isle of Wight East [note 5] | Conservative Party | 21.70% | |||
8 | Hampstead and Highgate [note 5] | Labour Party | 21.99% | |||
9 | East Kilbride and Strathaven [note 5] | Scottish National Party | 22.24% | |||
10 | Livingston | Scottish National Party | 22.34% | |||
11 | Bathgate and Linlithgow [note 5] | Scottish National Party | 22.46% | |||
12 | Edinburgh South West | Scottish National Party | 22.60% | |||
Other seats Greens are targeting [18] | ||||||
82 | Waveney Valley | Conservative Party | 26.45% | |||
- | North Herefordshire | Conservative Party | - |
Target seats requiring swings of under 10%:
Ulster Unionist Party [19] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing needed |
1. | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 0.49% |
2. | South Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 3.56% |
Sinn Féin [20] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing needed |
1. | Upper Bann | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.05% |
Democratic Unionist Party [21] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing needed |
1. | North Down | Alliance Party of Northern Ireland | 3.09% |
2. | Belfast North | Sinn Féin | 3.88% |
3. | South Down | Sinn Féin | 9.06% |
4. | West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 9.20% |
Social Democratic and Labour Party [22] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing needed |
1. | South Down | Sinn Féin | 1.80% |
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland [23] | |||
Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing needed |
1. | Belfast East | Democratic Unionist Party | 2.91% |
2. | Strangford | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.07% |
3. | East Antrim | Democratic Unionist Party | 7.96% |
4. | Lagan Valley | Democratic Unionist Party | 8.12% |
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