Tim Palmer | |
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Born | Timothy Noel Palmer 31 December 1952[ citation needed ] Kingston upon Thames, Surrey, England |
Alma mater |
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Awards |
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Scientific career | |
Thesis | Covariant conservation equations and their relation to the energy- momentum concept in general relativity (1977) |
Doctoral advisor | Dennis William Sciama [2] |
Website | www2 |
Timothy Noel Palmer CBE FRS [1] (born 31 December 1952) is a mathematical physicist by training. He has spent most of his career working on the dynamics and predictability of weather and climate. Among various research achievements, he pioneered the development of probabilistic ensemble forecasting techniques for weather and climate prediction (at the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). [3] These techniques are now standard in operational weather and climate prediction around the world, and are central for reliable decision making for many commercial and humanitarian applications.
Palmer was born in Kingston upon Thames, Surrey in 1952. [4] He received a 1st Class Joint Honours Degree in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bristol [2] and a Doctor of Philosophy in General Relativity Theory from the University of Oxford. [5]
Palmer’s research has focused on the nonlinear predictability and dynamics of the climate system. He co-discovered the world's largest breaking waves, [6] and proposed a nonlinear framework for the regional manifestation of climate change, based on the nonlinear dynamics of quasi-stationary weather regimes. [7] He was among the first to propose the importance of developing unified or "seamless" weather and climate prediction models. [8] As of 2016 [update] Palmer's research is focussed on the development of stochastic parametrisations in weather and climate simulators, [1] and the application of inexact computing [9] techniques for developing ultra-high resolution climate models. [10] Palmer believes strongly that human and computing resources must be pooled internationally to develop reliable climate prediction systems.[ citation needed ] He remains active in the area of fundamental physics, promoting the synergistic "Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate" as a primitive geometric principle for physics of the large and small. [11]
After a chance meeting with geophysicist Raymond Hide, he became interested in climate and was employed by the Met Office – including a year at the University of Washington.[ citation needed ] In 1986 he joined the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts where he led the newly formed Predictability and Diagnostics Division, where he led the development of the ECMWF medium-range ensemble prediction system and the European DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal climate prediction system. [12] In 2010 Palmer became a Professor of Climate Physics at the University of Oxford, [13] being one of the "2010 Anniversary" Royal Society Research Professors, created to celebrate the Royal Society's 350th Anniversary. At Oxford, Palmer is additionally co-director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Modelling and Predicting Climate [14] and is a professorial fellow at Jesus College, Oxford. [15]
Palmer was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) in 2003, [1] and was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in the 2015 New Year Honours for services to science. [16] [17] Other awards include:
In October 2022 Palmer published a popular science book on the science of uncertainty called The Primacy of Doubt. [30] Without equations, it described the physics and mathematics of chaos, applying it to weather, climate, economics, pandemics, conflict, human creativity, free will and consciousness. It also discussed the question of whether, at the deepest level, quantum uncertainty is different from chaotic uncertainty - Palmer believes not. The book received favourable blurbs from Roger Penrose, Martin Rees, Syukuro Manabe and Sabine Hossenfelder. Brian Clegg of Popular Science wrote “This is quite possibly the best popular science book I've ever read (and I’ve read many hundreds)." [31]
The Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal is the highest award for atmospheric science of the American Meteorological Society. It is presented to individual scientists, who receive a medal. Named in honor of meteorology and oceanography pioneer Carl-Gustaf Rossby, who was also its second (1953) recipient.
The Royal Meteorological Society is a long-established institution that promotes academic and public engagement in weather and climate science. Fellows of the Society must possess relevant qualifications, but Members can be lay enthusiasts. Its Quarterly Journal is one of the world's leading sources of original research in the atmospheric sciences. The chief executive officer is Liz Bentley.
Professor Sir Brian John Hoskins, CBE FRS, is a British dynamical meteorologist and climatologist based at the Imperial College London and the University of Reading. He is a recipient of the 2024 Japan Prize along with Professor John Michael Wallace in the field of "Resources, Energy, the Environment, and Social Infrastructure" for "Establishment of a scientific foundation for understanding and predicting extreme weather events". He is a mathematician by training, his research has focused on understanding atmospheric motion from the scale of fronts to that of the Earth, using a range of theoretical and numerical models. He is perhaps best known for his work on the mathematical theory of extratropical cyclones and frontogenesis, particularly through the use of potential vorticity. He has also produced research across many areas of meteorology, including the Indian monsoon and global warming, recently contributing to the Stern review and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
Sir John Theodore Houghton was a Welsh atmospheric physicist who was the co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) scientific assessment working group which shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 with Al Gore. He was lead editor of the first three IPCC reports. He was professor in atmospheric physics at the University of Oxford, former Director General at the Met Office and founder of the Hadley Centre.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.
Edward Norton Lorenz was an American mathematician and meteorologist who established the theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology. He is best known as the founder of modern chaos theory, a branch of mathematics focusing on the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.
Myles Robert Allen is an English climate scientist. He is Professor of Geosystem Science in the University of Oxford's School of Geography and the Environment, and head of the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department.
Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set of forecasts is produced. This set of forecasts aims to give an indication of the range of possible future states of the atmosphere.
Joseph Smagorinsky was an American meteorologist and the first director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).
Lennart Bengtsson is a Swedish meteorologist. His research interests include climate sensitivity, extreme events, climate variability and climate predictability.
Sir Basil John Mason was an expert on cloud physics and former Director-General of the Meteorological Office from 1965 to 1983 and Chancellor of the University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST) from 1994 to 1996.
Raymond Hide was a British physicist, who was a professor of physics at the University of Oxford and, since 2000, senior research investigator at Imperial College, London.
The invariant set postulate concerns the possible relationship between fractal geometry and quantum mechanics and in particular the hypothesis that the former can assist in resolving some of the challenges posed by the latter. It is underpinned by nonlinear dynamical systems theory and black hole thermodynamics.
Joanna Dorothy Haigh is a British physicist and academic. Before her retirement in 2019 she was Professor of Atmospheric Physics at Imperial College London, and co-director of the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment. She served as head of the department of physics at Imperial College London. She is a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS), and a served as president of the Royal Meteorological Society.
Julia Mary Slingo is a British meteorologist and climate scientist. She was Chief Scientist at the Met Office from 2009 until 2016. She is also a visiting professor in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, where she held, prior to appointment to the Met Office, the positions of Director of Climate Research in the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) National Centre for Atmospheric Science and founding director of the Walker Institute for Climate System Research.
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. The NAEFS combines the Canadian MSC and the US NWS global ensemble prediction systems, improving probabilistic operational guidance over what can be built from any individual country's ensemble. Model guidance from the NAEFS is incorporated into the forecasts of the respective national agencies.
Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office. He is also a professor at Exeter University. Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 250 peer reviewed studies on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science and academic books on meteorology.
Keith John Beven is a British hydrologist and distinguished emeritus professor in hydrology at Lancaster University. According to Lancaster University he is the most highly cited hydrologist.
Michael Ghil is an American and European mathematician and physicist, focusing on the climate sciences and their interdisciplinary aspects. He is a founder of theoretical climate dynamics, as well as of advanced data assimilation methodology. He has systematically applied dynamical systems theory to planetary-scale flows, both atmospheric and oceanic. Ghil has used these methods to proceed from simple flows with high temporal regularity and spatial symmetry to the observed flows, with their complex behavior in space and time. His studies of climate variability on many time scales have used a full hierarchy of models, from the simplest ‘toy’ models all the way to atmospheric, oceanic and coupled general circulation models. Recently, Ghil has also worked on modeling and data analysis in population dynamics, macroeconomics, and the climate–economy–biosphere system.
Peter John Webster is a meteorologist and climate dynamicist relating to the dynamics of large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere systems of the tropics, notably the Asian monsoon. Webster holds degrees in applied physics, mathematics and meteorology. Webster studies the basic dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropics and has applied this basic knowledge to developing warning systems for extreme weather events in Asia. He has served on a number of prestigious national and international committees including the World Climate Research Program's Joint Scientific Committee (1983-1987), chaired the international Tropical Ocean Global Atmospheric (TOGA) organizing committee (1988–94) and was co-organizer of the multinational TOGA Couple Ocean-Atmosphere (1993). He is Emeritus Professor in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology and co-founder and Chief Scientist of Climate Forecast Applications Network LLC, a weather and climate services company.
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