Backstop resources

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Backstop resources theory states that as a heavily used limited resource becomes expensive, alternative resources will become cheap by comparison, therefore making the alternatives economically viable options. In the long term, the theory implies faith that technological progress will allow backstop resources to be essentially unlimited (see also Cornucopian), and that need will cause the development of new technologies to become cost effective. This idea is supported by economist Robert Solow who claimed that four-fifths of US economic growth could be attributed to technological development (the other fifth being accounted for by expansion of labor and capital).

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Implications to peak oil

Peak Oil derives from the Hubbert peak theory, which theorizes that production of any finite resource over time will have roughly inverse curves before and after the peak of the resource's production (creating an approximately bell shaped curve). Hubbert's theory is used to predict when a resource will reach its peak of production by studying past resource discovery and production trends. Peak Oil advocates often show only crude oil production which may have set a global peak in 2005.

Backstop resource theory maintains that alternatives will be developed as they are needed.

Historical examples

Cuba, during its Special Period following the collapse of the Soviet Union, increased sugar cane ethanol production to offset lost crude oil imports from the Soviet Union.[ citation needed ]

Canada is the largest single source of oil imports for the United States. [1] As oil prices spiked following the 1979 energy crisis, Canada began significant production of oil derived from tar sands, also known as bitumen. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) states that historic Canadian Tar Sand production rose from 200,000 barrels per day (32,000 m3/d) in 1980 to 1,100,000 barrels per day (170,000 m3/d) in 2004. [2] EIA's 2007 International Energy Outlook estimates that tar sand production will climb to 2,300,000 bbl/d (370,000 m3/d) in 2015 and 3.6 million barrels per day (570×10^3 m3/d) in 2030.

South Africa responded to anti-apartheid embargoes by switching from imported crude oil to coal liquefaction producing gasoline and diesel profitably from coal and natural gas using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.[ citation needed ] The EIA estimates global coal-to-liquids production will climb to 600,000 bbl/d (95,000 m3/d) in 2015 and 2,400,000 bbl/d (380,000 m3/d) in 2030.[ citation needed ]

Criticism

Environmental economists and critics of globalized capitalism take issue with this theory for a number of reasons. Environmentalists disagree with Solow's conclusion about the role of technology because it neglects to consider the increases in exploitation of natural resources which may be responsible for much of the growth attributed to technology. Anti-globalists apply a similar argument, but tend to focus on exploitation of third world societies rather than the environment.

The theory also neglects to account for certain requisite properties of the resources in question and the development of necessary infrastructure. It may be possible to design a car to run on hydrogen, but widescale construction of a hydrogen infrastructure is a far more complex problem, especially in a scenario in which the major resource is already becoming scarce.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Petroleum</span> Naturally occurring flammable liquid

Petroleum, also known as crude oil, or simply oil, is a naturally occurring yellowish-black liquid mixture of mainly hydrocarbons, and is found in geological formations. The name petroleum covers both naturally occurring unprocessed crude oil and petroleum products that consist of refined crude oil. A fossil fuel, petroleum is formed when large quantities of dead organisms, mostly zooplankton and algae, are buried underneath sedimentary rock and subjected to both prolonged heat and pressure.

The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil sands</span> Type of unconventional oil deposit

Oil sands, tar sands, crude bitumen, or bituminous sands, are a type of unconventional petroleum deposit. Oil sands are either loose sands or partially consolidated sandstone containing a naturally occurring mixture of sand, clay, and water, soaked with bitumen, a dense and extremely viscous form of petroleum.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hubbert peak theory</span> One of the primary theories on peak oil

The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Peak oil</span> Point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum extraction is reached

Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price. A secular decline in oil extraction could be caused both by depletion of accessible reserves and by reductions in demand that reduce the price relative to the cost of extraction, as might be induced to reduce carbon emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2000s energy crisis</span> Sixfold rise in oil prices, peaking in 2008

From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under US$25/barrel in 2008 dollars. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including Middle East tension, soaring demand from China, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports showing a decline in petroleum reserves, worries over peak oil, and financial speculation.

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Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area. The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that the production curves of non-renewing resources approximate a bell curve. Thus, according to this theory, when the peak of production is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Petroleum industry in Canada</span>

Petroleum production in Canada is a major industry which is important to the economy of North America. Canada has the third largest oil reserves in the world and is the world's fourth largest oil producer and fourth largest oil exporter. In 2019 it produced an average of 750,000 cubic metres per day (4.7 Mbbl/d) of crude oil and equivalent. Of that amount, 64% was upgraded from unconventional oil sands, and the remainder light crude oil, heavy crude oil and natural-gas condensate. Most of Canadian petroleum production is exported, approximately 600,000 cubic metres per day (3.8 Mbbl/d) in 2019, with 98% of the exports going to the United States. Canada is by far the largest single source of oil imports to the United States, providing 43% of US crude oil imports in 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hubbert linearization</span>

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Energy in Kazakhstan describes energy and electricity production, consumption and import in Kazakhstan and the politics of Kazakhstan related to energy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Predicting the timing of peak oil</span>

Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil reserves in Canada</span>

Oil reserves in Canada were estimated at 172 billion barrels as of the start of 2015 . This figure includes the oil sands reserves that are estimated by government regulators to be economically producible at current prices using current technology. According to this figure, Canada's reserves are third only to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. Over 95% of these reserves are in the oil sands deposits in the province of Alberta. Alberta contains nearly all of Canada's oil sands and much of its conventional oil reserves. The balance is concentrated in several other provinces and territories. Saskatchewan and offshore areas of Newfoundland in particular have substantial oil production and reserves. Alberta has 39% of Canada's remaining conventional oil reserves, offshore Newfoundland 28% and Saskatchewan 27%, but if oil sands are included, Alberta's share is over 98%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Oil reserves in the United States</span> Oil reserves located in the USA

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainability measurement</span>

Sustainability measurement are a set of frameworks or indicators to measure how sustainable something is. This includes processes, products, services and businesses. Sustainability is difficult to quantify. It may even be impossible to measure. To measure sustainability, the indicators consider environmental, social and economic domains. The metrics are still evolving. They include indicators, benchmarks and audits. They include sustainability standards and certification systems like Fairtrade and Organic. They also involve indices and accounting. And they can include assessment, appraisal and other reporting systems. These metrics are used over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Sustainability measures include corporate sustainability reporting, Triple Bottom Line accounting. They include estimates of the quality of sustainability governance for individual countries. These use the Environmental Sustainability Index and Environmental Performance Index. Some methods let us track sustainable development. These include the UN Human Development Index and ecological footprints.

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In the United States, synthetic fuels are of increasing importance due to the price of crude oil, and geopolitical and economic considerations.

References

  1. U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports
  2. "International Energy Outlook 2013 - Energy Information Administration". Eia.doe.gov. 2013-07-25. Retrieved 2014-03-23.