Business statistics

Last updated

"Business statistics is the science of good decision making in the face of uncertainty and is used in many disciplines such as econometrics, auditing and production and operations, including services improvement and marketing research". [1]

Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference". An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships". The first known use of the term "econometrics" was by Polish economist Paweł Ciompa in 1910. Jan Tinbergen is considered by many to be one of the founding fathers of econometrics. Ragnar Frisch is credited with coining the term in the sense in which it is used today.

Contents

These sources feature regular repetitive publication of series of data. This makes the topic of time series especially important for business statistics. It is also a branch of applied statistics working mostly on data collected as a by-product of doing business or by government agencies. It provides knowledge and skills to interpret and use statistical techniques in a variety of business applications.

Time series Sequence of data over time

A time series is a series of data points indexed in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Examples of time series are heights of ocean tides, counts of sunspots, and the daily closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

A typical business statistics course is intended for business majors, and covers statistical study, descriptive statistics (collection, description, analysis, and summary of data), probability, and the binomial and normal distributions, test of hypotheses and confidence intervals, linear regression, and correlation. [2]

Normal distribution probability distribution

In probability theory, the normaldistribution is a very common continuous probability distribution. Normal distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the natural and social sciences to represent real-valued random variables whose distributions are not known. A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.

Linear regression statistical approach for modeling the relationship between a scalar dependent variable and one or more explanatory variables

In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach to modeling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables. The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression. For more than one explanatory variable, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable.

See also

Economic data or economic statistics are data describing an actual economy, past or present. These are typically found in time-series form, that is, covering more than one time period or in cross-sectional data in one time period. Data may also be collected from surveys of for example individuals and firms or aggregated to sectors and industries of a single economy or for the international economy. A collection of such data in table form comprises a data set.

Economic statistics is a topic in applied statistics that concerns the collection, processing, compilation, dissemination, and analysis of economic data. It is also common to call the data themselves 'economic statistics', but for this usage see economic data. The data of concern to economic statistics may include those of an economy of region, country, or group of countries. Economic statistics may also refer to a subtopic of official statistics for data produced by official organizations. Analyses within economic statistics both make use of and provide the empirical data needed in economic research, whether descriptive or econometric. They are a key input for decision making as to economic policy. The subject includes statistical analysis of topics and problems in microeconomics, macroeconomics, business, finance, forecasting, data quality, and policy evaluation. It also includes such considerations as what data to collect in order to quantify some particular aspect of an economy and of how best to collect in any given instance.

Data collection process of gathering and measuring information

Data collection is the process of gathering and measuring information on targeted variables in an established system, which then enables one to answer relevant questions and evaluate outcomes. Data collection is a component of research in all fields of study including physical and social sciences, humanities, and business. While methods vary by discipline, the emphasis on ensuring accurate and honest collection remains the same. The goal for all data collection is to capture quality evidence that allows analysis to lead to the formulation of convincing and credible answers to the questions that have been posed.

Notes

Related Research Articles

Lawrence Klein American economist

Lawrence Robert Klein was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks.

The Journal of Business & Economic Statistics is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal published by the American Statistical Association. The journal covers a broad range of applied problems in business and economic statistics, including forecasting, seasonal adjustment, applied demand and cost analysis, applied econometric modeling, empirical finance, analysis of survey and longitudinal data related to business and economic problems, the impact of discrimination on wages and productivity, the returns to education and training, the effects of unionization, and applications of stochastic control theory to business and economic problems.

The following tables compare general and technical information for a number of statistical analysis packages.

Sir David Forbes Hendry, FBA CStat is a British econometrician, currently a professor of economics and from 2001–2007 was head of the Economics Department at the University of Oxford. He is also a professorial fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford.

Neil Shephard British economist

Neil Shephard, FBA, is an econometrician, currently Frank B. Baird, Jr. Professor of Science in the Department of Economics and the Department of Statistics at Harvard University.

Eric Ghysels is a Belgian economist with particular interest in finance and time series econometrics who works in the field of financial econometrics, and is currently the Edward M. Bernstein Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of North Carolina and a Professor of Finance at the Kenan-Flagler Business School.

The Journal of Econometrics is a scholarly journal in econometrics. It was first published in 1973. Its current editors are A. Ronald Gallant, John Geweke, Cheng Hsiao, and Peter M. Robinson.

Structural break

In econometrics and statistics, a structural break is an unexpected change over time in the parameters of regression models, which can lead to huge forecasting errors and unreliability of the model in general. This issue was popularised by David Hendry, who argued that lack of stability of coefficients frequently caused forecast failure, and therefore we must routinely test for structural stability. Structural stability − i.e., the time-invariance of regression coefficients − is a central issue in all applications of linear regression models.

AREMOS was a data management and econometrics software package released by Global Insight. It was most popular in the late 1980s and 1990s, when it was used by leading economists. Developed as a DOS application by Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates - WEFA now IHS Markit, it has gone through many iterations. Thomsons' Datastream macroeconomic databases which were accessible with AREMOS, were a key selling point.

The Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, also known as the School of Informatics and Statistics, is the fourth of six faculties at University of Economics, Prague. The faculty was established in 1991, following the dissolution of the Faculty of Direction. Its academic focus is informatics, statistics, econometrics and other mathematical methods applied to business practice. The faculty has eight departments and several research laboratories, and hosts around 3,500 students across its programs.

LIMDEP Computer software

LIMDEP is an econometric and statistical software package with a variety of estimation tools. In addition to the core econometric tools for analysis of cross sections and time series, LIMDEP supports methods for panel data analysis, frontier and efficiency estimation and discrete choice modeling. The package also provides a programming language to allow the user to specify, estimate and analyze models that are not contained in the built in menus of model forms.

Philippus Henricus Benedictus Franciscus "Philip Hans" Franses is a Dutch economist and Professor of Applied Econometrics and Marketing Research at the Erasmus University Rotterdam, and dean of the Erasmus School of Economics, especially known for his 1998 work on "Nonlinear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance."

Francis X. Diebold is an American economist known for his work in predictive econometric modeling, financial econometrics, and macroeconometrics. He earned both his B.S. and Ph.D. degrees at the University of Pennsylvania ("Penn"), where his doctoral committee included Marc Nerlove, Lawrence Klein, and Peter Pauly. He has spent most of his career at Penn, where he has mentored approximately 75 Ph.D. students. Presently he is Paul F. and Warren S. Miller Professor of Social Sciences and Professor of Economics at Penn’s School of Arts and Sciences, and Professor of Finance and Professor of Statistics at Penn’s Wharton School. He is also a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and author of the No Hesitations blog.

Agustín Maravall Spanish economist

Agustín Maravall Herrero is a Spanish economist known for his contributions in statistics and econometrics time series analysis, in particular seasonal adjustment and in the estimation of signals in economic time series. He has completed a methodology and several computer programs that are used throughout the world by analysts, researchers, and data producers. An important use is official production of series adjusted for seasonality and (perhaps) other undesirable effects such as noise, outliers, or missing observations. Maravall has received several awards and distinctions and retired in December 2014 from the Bank of Spain.

References

International Standard Book Number Unique numeric book identifier

The International Standard Book Number (ISBN) is a numeric commercial book identifier which is intended to be unique. Publishers purchase ISBNs from an affiliate of the International ISBN Agency.