List of futurologists

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"Futurology" as a term was coined in the twentieth century. What counts under that term has changed over time; as such, this list is a jumble, and is intended to be suggestive, not definitive. Notable futurologists include:

NameBirthDeathField or notable accomplishment
Abishur Prakash 1991livinggeopolitical futurist, author
Adrian Berry 19372016writer, journalist
Alan Marshall 1975livingacademic, environmentalist, social scientist, writer
Aldous Huxley 18941963writer of Brave New World , psychedelic prophet
Alvin & Heidi Toffler 1928/19292016/2019wrote Future Shock , and sequels, technological singularity
Anders Sandberg 1972livinghuman enhancement
Andrey Korotayev 1961livingmathematical modeling of global future [1]
Archibald Low 18881956space
Arthur C. Clarke 19172008writer
Ash Koosha 1985livingFuturist Composer and Producer [2]
Ashis Nandy 1937livingwriter on colonialism
Ben Goertzel 1966livingartificial general intelligence researcher, OpenCog
Bertrand de Jouvenel 19031987economist
Bill Joy 1954livingUNIX, technology dangers
Bruce Sterling 1954livingliving design, information technology
Buckminster Fuller 18951983architect, cosmologist, whole-systems thinker, designer/inventor
Carl Sagan 19341996astronomer
Clement Bezold 1948livinghealthcare
Dandridge M. Cole 19211965 space colonization
Daniel Bell 19192011"Post-Industrial Society"
Daniel Burrus 1947livingfuturist, business advisor, author
Darla Jane Gilroy livingfuturist, trendspotting
David Passig 1957livinganticipatory anthropology
Deane Hutton 1941livingcommunicator
Dennis Gabor 19001979holography
Dirk HR Spennemann living space heritage
Donald Prell 19242020 venture capital, strategic foresight, technological singularity
Donella Meadows 19412001 systems thinking, leverage points, sustainability
Douglas Engelbart 19252013hypertext, mouse, interactive computing
Douglas Rushkoff 1961living
Fabienne Goux-Baudiment 1960living strategic foresight [3] [4] [5] media theorist, writer, columnist, lecturer, graphic novelist, and documentarian, early cyberpunk culture, open source
Edward Bellamy 18501898wrote Looking Backward: 2000–1887 , a utopia about the future year 2000, economic reorganization
Eliezer Yudkowsky 1979living friendly artificial intelligence
Erich Jantsch 19291980book The Self-Organizing Universe: Scientific and Human Implications of the Emerging Paradigm of Evolution
Faith Popcorn 1948livingpopcorn report
FM-2030 19302000transhumanist, essayist
Fred Polak 19071985social studies, wrote The Image of the Future
Freeman Dyson 19232020nuclear engineering, disarmament advocate, ideas of Dyson sphere, nuclear space-flight
Gaston Berger 18961960 cognitive science
Gene Roddenberry 19211991creator of the Star Trek franchise.
Genevieve Bell 1968livingcultural anthropologist and technologist
George Dvorsky 1970livingtranshumanist
George Friedman 1949livinggeopolitics
George Gilder 1939livingsociety
George Orwell 19031950writer (wrote 1984 )
Gerald Celente 1946living trend forecaster
Gerard K. O'Neill 19271992envisioned space colonization
Gianroberto Casaleggio 19542016politics, internet
Grace Hopper 19061992 women in computing, COBOL
H. G. Wells 18661946writer, historian, among the first to think of himself as a futurist
Hans Moravec 1948living robotics, AI
Harlan Cleveland 19182008diplomacy
Hazel Henderson 19332022cooperative economics
Herman Kahn 19221983military strategist, econo-technical predictions
Hugo de Garis 1947livingAI
Hugo Gernsback 18841967invented the term "science fiction", wrote the novel Ralph 124C 41+, started science fiction magazines. After him the Hugo Awards are named.
Isaac Arthur 1980livingLong term future of the space industry and colonization, physicist, YouTube personality
Isaac Asimov 19201992writer of science and science fiction, created the Three Laws of Robotics.
Jacque Fresco 19162017architect, resource economics, model maker, envisioner of cornucopian world
James Hughes 1961livingethics
James Lovelock 19192022environmentalist, Gaia hypothesis, Global warming theorist
Jean Fourastié 19071990economist
John McHale 19221978artist, sociologist
Jeremy Rifkin 1945livingeconomist, science and tech. critic of various sorts, writer
Jerry Fishenden livingMicrosoft future
Jim Dator livingpolitics
Joanne Pransky 19592023 robotics
Joël de Rosnay 1937livingmolecular biology
John Michael Godier livingauthor, science communicator, futurist, YouTube personality
John Naisbitt 19292021wrote Megatrends
José Luis Cordeiro 1962livingengineer, economist, and author of La Muerte de la Muerte
Jules Verne 18281905previsioned aviation, spaceflight, submarine travel
Karel Čapek 18901938fiction writer who invented the word robot
Karl Marx 18181883predicted societal and economic development on the basis of dialectical materialism [6]
Kevin Kelly 1952livingfounding executive editor of Wired magazine and author of multiple futurology books
Kevin Warwick 1954living robotics
Kim Stanley Robinson 1952livingnovelist known for Mars Trilogy, 2312 (novel), Aurora (novel), and the forthcoming 'New York, 2140'
Krafft Arnold Ehricke 19171984 space colonization
Leonardo da Vinci 14521519engineer, inventor, scientist
Lidewij Edelkoort 1950livingfashion
M. G. Gordon 19151969social studies
Magda Cordell McHale 19212008painter, educator
Mahdi Elmandjra 19332014economist, sociologist
Mark Pesce 1962livinginventor, writer, engineer
Mark Satin 1946livingpolitical theory
Mark Stevenson 1971livingauthor, entrepreneur, geo-technology
Marshall Brain 19612024 robotics, transhumanism
Marshall McLuhan 19111980communications
Martin Ford 1963livingartificial intelligence, robotics, author of New York Times bestseller Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
Matthew Simmons 19432010 peak oil, oil reserves
Max More 1964living Extropy Institute
Meredith Thring 19152006inventor
Michael Crichton 19422008writer; implications of progress in science
Michael Rogers livingNew York Times futurist; MSNBC commentator
Michel Saloff Coste 1955livingart, Club of Budapest
Michio Kaku 1947living string field theory, expositor
Mitchell Joachim 1972livingecological design

Michel de Nostredame

Natasha Vita-More 1950living Humanity+
Neal Stephenson 1959livingnovelist known for Snow Crash , Anathem , and Seveneves
Nicholas Negroponte 1943living OLPC, new technological media
Nick Bostrom 1973living [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, superintelligence risks, the reversal test, and consequentialism
Nicolas De Santis 1966livingCorporate Visioning, author, tech entrepreneur, founder Opodo
Nikola Tesla 18561943energy, inventor
Nikolai Fyodorovich Fyodorov 18291903renewable energy, life extension/immortality, tranhumanism, space colonization
Orrin H. Pilkey 1934livingcritic of environmentalists [ citation needed ], coastline erosion
Ossip K. Flechtheim 19091998political scientist
Patrick Dixon 1957livingbusiness
Peter C. Bishop 1944livingeducator - strategic foresight
Peter Diamandis 1961living Singularity University
Peter Newman 1945livingsustainability, transport systems, cars and cities
Peter Schwartz 1946livingChina, climate change, business, technology
Phil Salin 19491991cyberspace and the Internet
Philip K. Dick 19281982writer who produced the novels behind Blade Runner and Minority Report
Ray Kurzweil 1948livingAI, transhumanism, technological singularity, life extension
Raymond Spencer Rodgers 19352007 telesphere, food-chain
Renzo Provinciali 18951981anarchist
Richard Feynman 19181988physicist, originator of concept of nanotechnology
Richard Moran 1950livingsocial scientist
Richard Neville 19412016author, reporter
Richard Slaughter 1940livingsociologist
Robert A. Heinlein 19071988novelist
Robert Anton Wilson 19322007 psychonaut, novelist, essayist
Robert Jastrow 19252008NASA scientist, author, spaceflight
Robert Jungk 19131994journalist
Robert Theobald 19291999economics
Robin Hanson 1959living prediction markets, singularity, transhumanism
Roger Bacon 12201292 Franciscan Friar, Natural Philosopher
Ross Dawson 1962livingfuturist, speaker, author
Scott Smith 1967living"flatpack futures"
Sinead Bovell1989livingBlogger
Sohail Inayatullah 1958livingpolitical scientist
Stanisław Lem 19212006novelist
Stephen Hawking 19422018astrophysics, cosmology [14] [15]
Stewart Brand 1938living cognitive science, environmental philosophy, whole systems
Sydney Jay Mead 19332019 visual futurist
Terence McKenna 19462000philosopher, psychonaut, speaker, ethnobotanist
Ted Nelson 1937livingwriter, philosopher, creator of hypertext concept and Xanadu project
Theodore Modis 1943livingbusiness, physics
Thomas Frey 1954livingfuturist speaker, technology, future jobs, future of work, future crimes, future of transportation, unanswerable question
Tim Cannon 1979livingtechnology, transhumanist
Timothy Leary 19201996psychologist, psychedelics enthusiast, transhumanist, space migration, life extension
Vannevar Bush 18901974analog computing, envisioned Memex, similar to what the internet is now
W. Warren Wagar 19322004historian
Walt Disney 19011966filmmaker, businessman, [16] created "Tomorrowland" and a concept Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow (referred to by acronym EPCOT)
Walter Greiling 19001986chemist, sociologist
Warren Ellis 1968livingwriter
Wendell Bell 19242019sociology
William Gibson 1948livingnovelist (cyberpunk)
William Gilpin 18131894politician
Willis Harman 19181997 sociocultural evolution
Ziauddin Sardar 1951living Muslim thought

See also

Related Research Articles

The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable consequences for human civilization. According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, I. J. Good's intelligence explosion model of 1965, an upgradable intelligent agent could eventually enter a positive feedback loop of self-improvement cycles, each successive; and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing a rapid increase ("explosion") in intelligence which would ultimately result in a powerful superintelligence, qualitatively far surpassing all human intelligence.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nick Bostrom</span> Philosopher and writer (born 1973)

Nick Bostrom is a philosopher known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation, superintelligence risks, and the reversal test. He was the founding director of the now dissolved Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford and is now Principal Researcher at the Macrostrategy Research Initiative.

Singularitarianism is a movement defined by the belief that a technological singularity—the creation of superintelligence—will likely happen in the medium future, and that deliberate action ought to be taken to ensure that the singularity benefits humans.

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a type of artificial intelligence (AI) that matches or surpasses human cognitive capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks. This contrasts with narrow AI, which is limited to specific tasks. Artificial superintelligence (ASI), on the other hand, refers to AGI that greatly exceeds human cognitive capabilities. AGI is considered one of the definitions of strong AI.

A superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of problem-solving systems whether or not these high-level intellectual competencies are embodied in agents that act in the world. A superintelligence may or may not be created by an intelligence explosion and associated with a technological singularity.

The Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), formerly the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI), is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. MIRI's work has focused on a friendly AI approach to system design and on predicting the rate of technology development.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">AI takeover</span> Hypothetical outcome of artificial intelligence

An AI takeover is an imagined scenario in which artificial intelligence (AI) emerges as the dominant form of intelligence on Earth and computer programs or robots effectively take control of the planet away from the human species, which relies on human intelligence. Possible scenarios include replacement of the entire human workforce due to automation, takeover by a superintelligent AI (ASI), and the notion of a robot uprising. Stories of AI takeovers have been popular throughout science fiction, but recent advancements have made the threat more real. Some public figures, such as Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk, have advocated research into precautionary measures to ensure future superintelligent machines remain under human control.

Futurists are people whose specialty or interest is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Futures studies</span> Study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures

Futures studies, futures research, futurism research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Future of Humanity Institute</span> Defunct Oxford interdisciplinary research centre

The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) was an interdisciplinary research centre at the University of Oxford investigating big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects. It was founded in 2005 as part of the Faculty of Philosophy and the Oxford Martin School. Its director was philosopher Nick Bostrom, and its research staff included futurist Anders Sandberg and Giving What We Can founder Toby Ord.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global catastrophic risk</span> Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk

A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's existence or potential is known as an "existential risk".

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to futures studies:

In futurology, a singleton is a hypothetical world order in which there is a single decision-making agency at the highest level, capable of exerting effective control over its domain, and permanently preventing both internal and external threats to its supremacy. The term was first defined by Nick Bostrom.

In the field of artificial intelligence (AI) design, AI capability control proposals, also referred to as AI confinement, aim to increase our ability to monitor and control the behavior of AI systems, including proposed artificial general intelligences (AGIs), in order to reduce the danger they might pose if misaligned. However, capability control becomes less effective as agents become more intelligent and their ability to exploit flaws in human control systems increases, potentially resulting in an existential risk from AGI. Therefore, the Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom and others recommend capability control methods only as a supplement to alignment methods.

Machine ethics is a part of the ethics of artificial intelligence concerned with adding or ensuring moral behaviors of man-made machines that use artificial intelligence, otherwise known as artificial intelligent agents. Machine ethics differs from other ethical fields related to engineering and technology. It should not be confused with computer ethics, which focuses on human use of computers. It should also be distinguished from the philosophy of technology, which concerns itself with technology's grander social effects.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Roman Yampolskiy</span> Latvian computer scientist (born 1979)

Roman Vladimirovich Yampolskiy is a Latvian computer scientist at the University of Louisville, mostly known for his work on AI safety and cybersecurity. He holds a PhD from the University at Buffalo (2008). He is the founder and current director of Cyber Security Lab, in the department of Computer Engineering and Computer Science at the Speed School of Engineering of the University of Louisville.

<i>Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</i> 2014 book by Nick Bostrom

Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies is a 2014 book by the philosopher Nick Bostrom. It explores how superintelligence could be created and what its features and motivations might be. It argues that superintelligence, if created, would be difficult to control, and that it could take over the world in order to accomplish its goals. The book also presents strategies to help make superintelligences whose goals benefit humanity. It was particularly influential for raising concerns about existential risk from artificial intelligence.

Instrumental convergence is the hypothetical tendency for most sufficiently intelligent, goal-directed beings to pursue similar sub-goals, even if their ultimate goals are quite different. More precisely, agents may pursue instrumental goals—goals which are made in pursuit of some particular end, but are not the end goals themselves—without ceasing, provided that their ultimate (intrinsic) goals may never be fully satisfied.

In January 2015, Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and dozens of artificial intelligence experts signed an open letter on artificial intelligence calling for research on the societal impacts of AI. The letter affirmed that society can reap great potential benefits from artificial intelligence, but called for concrete research on how to prevent certain potential "pitfalls": artificial intelligence has the potential to eradicate disease and poverty, but researchers must not create something which is unsafe or uncontrollable. The four-paragraph letter, titled "Research Priorities for Robust and Beneficial Artificial Intelligence: An Open Letter", lays out detailed research priorities in an accompanying twelve-page document.

Existential risk from artificial intelligence refers to the idea that substantial progress in artificial general intelligence (AGI) could lead to human extinction or an irreversible global catastrophe.

References

  1. ↑ Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth.
  2. ↑ Miles Bowe (2016-03-02). "Iranian futurist Ash Koosha is pushing electronic music into a virtual reality". Fact Magazine.
  3. ↑ "Focus Magazine Issues 23-25". 2002. Retrieved 26 December 2016.
  4. ↑ "The Silicon Valley Skeptic" . Retrieved 26 December 2016.
  5. ↑ "What will 2015 bring? 4 futurists weigh in". Geektime. Retrieved 26 December 2016.
  6. ↑ Shahibzadeh, Yadullah (2016). Islamism and Post-Islamism in Iran: An Intellectual History. New York: Springer. p. 22. ISBN   9781137578259 . Retrieved 2019-05-26. 'Marxism has founded the main pillars of the science of futurology.' [...] Ehsan Tabari, Marksism va shenakht-e ayandah, Donia (Winter 1967)
  7. ↑ "What Are the Odds We Are Living in a Computer Simulation?". The New Yorker . 9 June 2016.
  8. ↑ Yampolskiy, Roman V. (17 June 2015). Artificial Superintelligence: A Futuristic Approach. CRC Press. ISBN   9781482234442 – via Google Books.
  9. ↑ Parsons, Paul (16 August 2012). The Rough Guide to Surviving the End of the World. Rough Guides Limited. ISBN   9781409360063 – via Google Books.
  10. ↑ "Review of Superintelligence by Nick Bostrom".
  11. ↑ Müller, Vincent C. (23 August 2012). Philosophy and Theory of Artificial Intelligence. Springer Science & Business Media. ISBN   9783642316746 – via Google Books.
  12. ↑ "What's It All About? on RTE Radio 1, Life, Death & Beyond (Episode 3)". 4 June 2014.
  13. ↑ Yampolskiy, Roman V. 'Leakproofing the Singularity'
  14. ↑ Nick Paton Walsh (2 September 2001). "Alter our DNA or robots will take over, warns Hawking". The Guardian.
  15. ↑ "BBC NEWS - UK - Move to new planet, says Hawking". bbc.co.uk. 30 November 2006.
  16. ↑ Rose, Steve (21 May 2015). "Tomorrowland: how Walt Disney's strange utopia shaped the world of tomorrow". The Guardian.
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