Opinion polling for the 2012 Taiwanese presidential election

Last updated

Nationwide public opinion polling have been commissioned in the leadup to the Taiwanese presidential election of 2012 by various organisations, including the Apple Daily , China Times , Global Views Magazine , Liberty Times , Era News and TVBS News. Election forecasts have also been released by various organisations, including the National Chengchi University, China Times, "Gallup" Market Research (not part of the global Gallup organization), [1] Global Views Magazine, and TVBS News, through the use of different forecasting models.

Contents

It is important to note that in terms of political orientation, sources such as TVBS News, United Daily News, and China Times are considered to be pro-unification, while sources such as Liberty Times are considered to be pro-independence.

Opinion polling

Two-way race

Poll SourceDate of completionMa Ying-jeouTsai Ing-wenUndecided
Democratic Progressive Party April 26, 201136.23%41.16%22.61%
Trendspotting Survey and Research April 26, 201133.45%43.35%23.20%
Master Survey and Research April 26, 201133.81%43.11%23.08%
All Dimension Survey and Research April 26, 201135.87%42.93%21.20%
Era News April 26, 201135.86%41.97%22.17%
China Times April 27, 201133.0%33.4%33.6%
United Daily News April 27, 201136%37%26%
Apple Daily April 27, 201129.38%56.21%14.41%
TVBS News April 27, 201143%42%15%
Shih Hsin University May 7, 201144.2%38.3%17.5%
Global Views Survey and Research May 10, 201138.9%38.6%22.6%
Apple Daily May 13, 201153.76%31.97%14.27%
Master Survey and Research May 16, 201140.6%41.3%18.1%
China Times May 18, 201134.9%26.9%37.7%
United Daily News May 18, 201145%27%27%
Liberty Times May 19, 201129.45%31.55%39.00%
TVBS News May 19, 201145%44%10%
Liberty Times May 24, 201131.34%34.57%34.08%
TVBS News May 30, 201146%42%10%
Democratic Progressive Party June 9, 201140.0%41.3%18.7%
Apple Daily June 14, 201143.02%46.27%10.71%
Global Views Survey and Research June 15, 201141.2%36.3%22.5%
TVBS News June 20, 201144%39%16%
Era News June 20, 201134.90%37.35%27.76%
Liberty Times June 28, 201127.12%31.66%41.22%
Trend Survey and Research June 30, 201142.4%38.8%18.8%
TVBS News July 7, 201144%36%17%
Era News July 9, 201138.6%33.1%28.4%
I-tel Survey and Research July 12, 201149.64%50.36%
United Daily News July 13, 201143%37%20%
Global Views Survey and Research July 15, 201137.3%37.2%25.5%
Apple Daily July 15, 201142.57%40.80%16.63%
Trend Survey and Research July 17, 201141.6%36.3%22.1%
TVBS News July 21, 201145%38%16%
Liberty Times July 26, 201136.39%34.29%29.32%
Democratic Progressive Party July 27, 201149.9%50.1%
China Times August 3, 201133.5%29.2%37.3%
Era News August 5, 201133.1%30.1%36.8%
I-tel Survey and Research [ permanent dead link ]August 11, 201150.45%49.55%
Apple Daily August 12, 201144.27%33.73%22.00%
United Daily News August 14, 201144%36%18%
TVBS News August 15, 201146%39%14%
US Congress Report August 15, 201137%37%26%
Global Views Survey and Research August 16, 201139.6%38.1%22.3%
Trend Survey and Research August 24, 201145.7%40.2%14.1%
TVBS News August 30, 201146%37%17%
Focus Survey and Research August 31, 201141.1%39.4%19.5%
Era News September 3, 201136.9%30.4%32.8%
Liberty Times September 7, 201136.87%33.92%29.21%
Democratic Progressive Party September 9, 201144.0%43.6%12.4%
China Times September 9, 201143.6%33.7%22.7%
Apple Daily September 9, 201130.69%51.29%18.02%
TVBS News September 14, 201148%37%16%
United Daily News September 14, 201146%39%14%
Liberty Times September 16, 201136.26%36.70%27.04%
Focus Survey and Research September 16, 201142.8%34.6%22.6%
Apple Daily September 17, 201142.59%33.92%23.49%
Era News September 17, 201141.5%32.7%25.7%
China Times September 18, 201141%36%23%
Global Views Survey and Research September 19, 201139.2%38.3%22.5%
Democratic Progressive Party September 19, 201142.8%44.3%12.9%
TVBS News September 20, 201147%35%18%
TVBS News September 22, 201147%37%17%
TVBS News September 28, 201146%38%17%
Focus Survey and Research September 28, 201143.2%35.9%11.9%
China Times October 2, 201141.7%37.1%21.2%
China Times October 3, 201142.3%35.3%22.4%
China Times October 4, 201142.7%35.8%21.5%
China Times October 5, 201143.2%34.8%22.0%
China Times October 6, 201142.4%34.1%23.5%
TVBS News October 6, 201145%38%17%
China Times October 7, 201143.0%34.5%22.5%
China Times October 8, 201142.0%34.1%23.9%
Trend Survey and Research October 8, 201142.9%33.9%23.2%
China Times October 9, 201140.9%34.1%25.0%
China Times October 10, 201141.0%32.4%26.5%
China Times October 11, 201141.4%33.3%25.3%
Focus Survey and Research October 12, 201140.6%32.0%27.4%
China Times October 12, 201142.5%32.5%25.0%
TVBS News October 12, 201143%38%19%
China Times October 13, 201143.3%33.3%23.4%
China Times October 14, 201143.5%33.8%22.7%
United Daily News October 15, 201146%36%18%
China Times October 15, 201142.7%36.3%21.0%
Taipei University of Education October 15, 201136.5%30.6%32.9%
China Times October 16, 201142.4%35.1%22.5%
China Times October 17, 201143.1%35.5%21.4%
China Times October 18, 201143.6%35.5%20.9%
China Times October 19, 201144.2%35.7%20.1%
China Times October 20, 201144.1%36.0%19.9%
TVBS News October 20, 201145%39%16%
China Times October 21, 201144.6%36.1%19.3%
China Times October 22, 201144.6%36.6%18.8%
China Times October 23, 201143.9%38.4%17.7%
China Times October 24, 201143.2%38.6%18.2%
China Times October 25, 201144.1%38.6%17.3%
Liberty Times October 26, 201135.60%36.10%28.30%
TVBS News October 26, 201144%39%17%
China Times October 26, 201144.2%39.6%16.2%
China Times October 27, 201144.0%38.7%17.3%
China Times October 28, 201143.6%39.0%17.4%
China Times October 29, 201144.4%38.5%17.1%
Decision Making Research October 29, 201137.3%40.1%22.6%
China Times October 30, 201144.2%39.0%16.8%
TVBS News October 31, 201146%39%15%
China Times November 3, 201143.5%39.7%16.8%
TVBS News November 3, 201147%42%10%
Focus Survey and Research November 7, 201137.8%36.1%26.1%
China Times November 7, 201145.4%41.0%13.6%
China Times November 8, 201144.1%40.9%15.0%
Liberty Times November 9, 201137.17%36.29%26.54%
TVBS News November 10, 201145%44%11%
China Times November 11, 201142.9%38.9%18.2%
United Daily News November 12, 201145%39%16%
China Times November 14, 201142.4%39.2%18.4%
TVBS News November 16, 201146%45%9%
China Times November 17, 201145.0%39.3%15.7%
China Times November 22, 201146.1%41.7%12.2%
Liberty Times November 23, 201136.58%39.61%23.81%

Three-way race

Poll SourceDate of CompletionMa Ying-jeouTsai Ing-wenJames SoongUndecided
Era News July 1, 201135.8%33.9%8.6%21.6%
Trend Survey and Research July 17, 201135.8%32.3%10.0%21.9%
TVBS News July 21, 201138%36%13%12%
China Times August 3, 201133.0%28.6%10.3%28.0%
Era News August 5, 201129.3%27.7%15.4%27.6%
Apple Daily August 12, 201138.82%27.82%18.95%14.41%
United Daily News August 14, 201138%31%15%16%
TVBS News August 15, 201139%35%16%9%
Global Views Survey and Research August 16, 201135.1%33.9%14.0%17.0%
Trend Survey and Research August 24, 201137.2%31.9%16.7%14.2%
TVBS News August 30, 201140%32%17%12%
Focus Survey and Research August 31, 201133.1%32.4%12.7%21.8%
Era News September 3, 201135.2%28.6%14.3%21.9%
Liberty Times September 7, 201131.46%28.23%14.68%25.63%
I-tel Survey and Research September 8, 201141.38%40.89%17.73%
China Times September 1, 201138.8%31.5%13.6%16.1%
TVBS News September 14, 201142%34%14%10%
United Daily News September 14, 201140%32%13%14%
Liberty Times September 16, 201131.61%31.61%13.44%23.34%
Focus Survey and Research September 16, 201133.4%27.9%11.4%27.4%
Apple Daily September 17, 201139.70%29.64%16.21%14.45%
Era News September 17, 201136.3%28.5%11.2%24.1%
China Times September 18, 201139%32%11%18%
Global Views Survey and Research September 11, 201135.8%36.0%10.0%18.2%
Democratic Progressive Party September 11, 201136.2%37.4%12.4%14.0%
TVBS News September 20, 201143%32%14%11%
TVBS News September 22, 201142%32%15%11%
TVBS News September 28, 201140%33%14%13%
Focus Survey and Research September 28, 201133.6%29.8%11.5%16.9%
Trend Survey and Research September 28, 201136.2%28.4%9.7%25.7%
China Times October 2, 201139.5%36.0%11.7%12.8%
China Times October 3, 201138.7%34.7%11.1%15.5%
China Times October 4, 201138.5%35.1%12.1%14.3%
China Times October 5, 201138.4%33.5%12.8%15.3%
China Times October 6, 201137.5%32.2%13.7%16.6%
Master Survey and Research October 6, 201137.3%36.1%12.6%13.9%
TVBS News October 6, 201140%35%13%13%
China Times October 7, 201137.5%31.7%13.6%17.2%
China Times October 8, 201137.7%31.9%13.2%17.2%
Trend Survey and Research October 8, 201136.2%28.4%9.7%25.7%
China Times October 1, 201137.9%31.6%13.4%17.1%
China Times October 10, 201138.0%30.6%13.2%18.2%
China Times October 11, 201138.9%31.4%12.0%17.7%
Focus Survey and Research October 12, 201137.0%30.5%13.3%19.2%
China Times October 12, 201140.0%31.0%11.4%17.6%
TVBS News October 12, 201138%34%15%13%
China Times October 13, 201139.7%30.3%12.6%17.4%
China Times October 14, 201139.0%31.4%11.7%17.9%
United Daily News October 15, 201143%32%11%14%
China Times October 15, 201139.5%32.7%11.3%16.5%
Taipei University of Education October 15, 201134.0%26.4%10.2%29.4%
China Times October 16, 201139.9%32.5%10.3%17.3%
China Times October 17, 201140.9%32.4%11.0%15.7%
China Times October 18, 201142.0%33.7%9.4%14.9%
China Times October 11, 201143.7%33.7%9.1%13.5%
China Times October 20, 201142.0%34.8%9.3%13.8%
TVBS News October 20, 201143%35%12%10%
I-tel Survey and Research October 21, 201143.72%42.95%13.33%
China Times October 21, 201142.3%35.1%9.7%12.9%
China Times October 22, 201142.3%35.8%9.4%12.5%
China Times October 23, 201141.6%36.3%10.6%11.5%
China Times October 24, 201140.6%36.9%10.6%11.9%
China Times October 25, 201142.1%37.0%10.1%10.8%
Liberty Times October 26, 201131.91%30.28%11.13%26.67%
TVBS News October 26, 201142%33%13%12%
China Times October 26, 201142.1%37.5%9.5%10.9%
China Times October 27, 201142.2%37.4%8.5%11.9%
China Times October 28, 201141.3%38.0%8.3%12.4%
China Times October 21, 201142.1%37.0%9.3%11.6%
Decision Making Research October 21, 201132.2%35.9%13.7%18.2%
China Times October 30, 201141.3%37.1%10.0%11.6%
China Times October 31, 201141.8%36.0%10.4%11.8%
TVBS News October 31, 201139%33%9%20%
China Times November 1, 201141.3%35.8%11.0%11.9%
China Times November 2, 201142.0%33.8%11.4%12.8%
Focus Survey and Research November 2, 201138.0%30.7%9.7%21.6%
TVBS News November 3, 201138%35%14%13%
China Times November 3, 201141.2%35.3%11.3%12.2%
Master Survey and Research November 4, 201139.5%38.6%12.9%9.1%
China Times November 4, 201142.0%35.6%10.6%11.8%
China Times November 5, 201141.4%37.3%10.1%11.2%
China Times November 6, 201141.7%38.2%10.4%9.7%
Gallup Market Research November 6, 201132.4%25.6%8.2%33.8%
Focus Survey and Research November 7, 201135.0%33.2%13.1%18.7%
China Times November 7, 201142.3%39.1%9.7%8.9%
China Times November 8, 201142.0%39.3%9.3%9.4%
Liberty Times November 1, 201133.58%32.97%11.17%22.27%
China Times November 1, 201141.4%38.5%10.3%9.8%
TVBS News November 10, 201139%38%9%14%
China Times November 10, 201141.6%38.1%10.7%9.6%
China Times November 11, 201141.6%38.3%9.5%10.6%
United Daily News November 12, 201141%36%9%13%
China Times November 14, 201141.2%39.0%9.4%10.4%
China Times November 15, 201142.4%38.1%9.5%10.0%
TVBS News November 16, 201139%39%9%12%
China Times November 16, 201143.3%37.9%9.1%9.7%
China Times November 17, 201143.4%37.6%9.4%9.6%
Taipei University of Education November 18, 201137.2%30.2%7.7%24.9%
China Times November 18, 201143.2%37.6%10.0%9.2%
Master Survey and Research November 18, 201138.7%39.6%11.7%10.0%
Decision Making Research November 20, 201133.5%40.1%11.2%15.2%
China Times November 21, 201144.7%36.8%9.7%8.8%
China Times November 22, 201143.6%38.7%9.8%7.9%
Liberty Times November 23, 201133.39%35.79%9.80%21.02%
Focus Survey and Research November 23, 201139.0%35.8%9.9%14.8%
China Times November 23, 201142.0%39.8%9.4%8.8%
TVBS News November 23, 201140%38%7%15%
China Times November 24, 201140.7%40.3%10.3%8.7%
China Times November 25, 201142.6%39.2%9.3%8.9%
United Daily News November 27, 201141%35%10%14%
China Times November 28, 201142.7%37.6%9.5%10.2%
YouGov Market Research November 28, 201134%26%10%30%
China Times November 29, 201143.0%35.2%8.4%13.4%
China Times November 30, 201141.8%35.1%8.3%14.8%
Focus Survey and Research November 30, 201136.7%32.1%10.0%21.2%
TVBS News December 1, 201140%34%7%19%
China Times December 2, 201143.5%36.1%7.0%13.4%
China Times December 2, 201143.4%37.5%7.7%11.4%
TVBS News December 3, 201138%32%12%18%
United Daily News December 3, 201139%32%10%17%
Apple Daily December 3, 201147.04%36.90%12.11%3.95%
China Times December 3, 201139.9%32.6%8.9%18.6%
Focus Survey and Research December 5, 201139.0%32.9%7.0%21.2%
China Times December 5, 201143.7%37.2%8.3%10.8%
Shih Hsin University December 5, 201133.9%28.6%8.3%30.7%
China Times December 6, 201142.0%36.9%9.8%11.3%
China Times December 7, 201143.2%36.3%9.0%11.5%
Taipei University of Education December 7, 201135.5%27.7%7.2%29.6%
TVBS News December 7, 201141%37%8%14%
Master Survey and Research December 8, 201135.4%35.9%10.8%17.9%
China Times December 8, 201143.9%35.9%8.9%11.3%
China Times December 9, 201143.2%36.4%8.7%11.7%
TVBS News December 10, 201139%39%6%16%
China Times December 10, 201142.7%35.1%7.1%15.1%
United Daily News December 10, 201140%33%10%16%
United Daily News December 12, 201142%35%10%13%
China Times December 12, 201141.3%36.8%8.4%13.5%
Focus Survey and Research December 12, 201136.3%36.0%5.9%20.1%
China Times December 13, 201140.1%39.1%8.0%12.8%
TVBS News December 14, 201140%38%7%15%
China Times December 14, 201139.7%38.7%8.2%13.4%
Liberty Times December 15, 201134.50%33.26%10.81%21.43%
China Times December 15, 201141.8%37.1%8.2%13.8%
China Times December 16, 201141.8%36.7%8.2%14.2%
TVBS News December 17, 201140%36%7%17%
China Times December 17, 201138.5%37.7%7.7%16%
United Daily News December 17, 201141%33%10%15%
China Times December 19, 201141.9%37.3%7.2%13.6%
Focus Survey and Research December 19, 201136.5%33.4%8.5%21.6%
China Times December 20, 201142.2%36.8%7.4%13.6%
China Times December 21, 201142.3%37.1%6.6%14.0%
Taipei University of Education December 21, 201140.2%32.2%5.5%22.1%
China Times December 22, 201142.3%36.0%7.0%14.7%
Liberty Times December 22, 201135.77%35.05%9.70%19.48%
TVBS December 22, 201141%35%8%16%
China Times December 23, 201142.2%36.2%6.8%14.8%
Master Survey and Research December 24, 201139.5%39.1%11.1%10.3%
Decision Making Research December 24, 201138.3%40.4%7.3%14.0%
China Times December 26, 201141.3%37.1%7.5%14.1%
China Times December 26, 201141.6%36.8%6.8%14.8%
Trendspotting Survey and Research December 26, 201133.3%29.0%7.0%30.7%
TVBS News December 27, 201144%38%6%12%
China Times December 27, 201140.7%38.0%7.7%13.6%
China Times December 28, 201141.3%38.5%6.6%13.6%
TVBS News December 29, 201144%35%7%13%
Focus Survey and Research December 29, 201137.6%31.5%6.6%24.4%
Focus Survey and Research December 30, 201135.9%32.6%7.3%24.4%
Taipei University of Education December 30, 201142.2%35.7%6.2%15.9%
Focus Survey and Research December 31, 201137.1%33.3%6.9%22.7%
Master Survey and Research December 31, 201138.8%37.8%11.6%11.8%
Focus Survey and Research January 1, 201137.2%33.1%7.2%22.5%
United Daily News January 2, 2012 44%36%7%13%
China Times January 2, 201239.536.5%5.8%18.2%
Focus Survey and Research January 2, 201237.2%33.1%7.2%22.5%
TVBS News January 2, 201245%37%6%13%
China Times January 2, 201243.3%38.4%6.8%11.5%

Television debates performance rating

Note that the percentages reflect the proportion of valid respondents who rated a particular candidate as performing the best during the presidential and vice-presidential television debates.

Presidential debates

Forecast SourceDate of ReleaseMa Ying-jeouTsai Ing-wenJames SoongUndecided
China Times December 3, 201131.7%29.8%13.6%24.9%
Apple Daily December 3, 201147.61%35.49%14.37%2.53%
United Daily News December 3, 201139%25%15%6%
TVBS News December 3, 201130%27%20%23%
Shih Hsin University December 3, 201130.5%31.0%14.5%24.1%
China Times December 17, 201129.1%32.1%12.5%26.3%
United Daily News December 17, 201136%29%17%4%
TVBS News December 17, 201128%33%15%24%
Focus Survey and Research December 19, 201133.9%37.7%14.1%14.3%
I-tel Survey and Research December 20, 201140.10%50.61%9.29%

Vice-presidential debates

Forecast SourceDate of ReleaseWu Den-yihSu Jia-chyuanLin Ruey-shiungUndecided
China Times December 10, 201135.3%33.7%4.4%26.6%
TVBS News December 10, 201138%39%6%17%
United Daily News December 10, 201140%30%9%5%
Focus Survey and Research December 12, 201133.8%38.4%6.5%21.3%

Election forecasting

Polling firm forecasts

Forecast SourceDate of ReleaseVoter TurnoutTsai Ing-wenMa Ying-jeouJames Soong
Global Views Survey and Research June 15, 201175.3%51.8%48.2%
Global Views Survey and Research June 22, 201153.2%46.8%
Democratic Progressive Party July 27, 201175%50.1%49.9%
Global Views Survey and Research August 16, 201153%47%
Global Views Survey and Research October 12, 201152%48%
China Times November 1, 201141%47%12%
Gallup Market Research November 6, 201143.1%44.2%12.8%
China Times November 10, 201142.2%46.0%11.8%
TVBS News November 10, 201176.8%47.3%45.8%6.9%
Gallup Market Research December 1, 201142.16%46.13%11.71%
TVBS News December 7, 201178.9%47%48%5%
Gallup Market Research December 14, 201141.6%48.2%10.3%
TVBS News December 22, 201180.3%46%48%6%
TVBS News December 29, 201177.9%45%50%5%
Democratic Progressive Party January 2, 201279%48%47%5%

Prediction market forecasts

Note that as the election forecast reports released by the National Chengchi University are based on models that involve the use of prediction markets as raw data, as opposed to opinion polling, the percentages may not add up to 100%. [2]

Forecast SourceDate of ReleaseTsai Ing-wenMa Ying-jeouJames Soong
National Chengchi University April 27, 201150.5%49.9%
National Chengchi University May 4, 201150.6%47.9%
National Chengchi University May 20, 201151.3%48.0%
National Chengchi University June 13, 201150.9%48.4%
National Chengchi University August 1, 201146.8%49.4%
National Chengchi University August 8, 201146.3%48.2%
National Chengchi University August 15, 201145.7%48.5%
National Chengchi University August 29, 201149.4%50.3%
National Chengchi University September 9, 201147.9%51.4%
National Chengchi University September 27, 201147.2%49.5%
National Chengchi University October 11, 201146.2%51.5%
National Chengchi University October 21, 201149.2%49.6%
National Chengchi University October 26, 201149.6%49.6%
National Chengchi University November 1, 201148.9%48.4%4.4%
National Chengchi University November 7, 201149.5%48.3%7.5%
National Chengchi University November 11, 201149.9%46.1%7.5%
National Chengchi University November 15, 201149.5%46.1%8.4%
National Chengchi University November 17, 201150.0%46.1%8.1%
National Chengchi University November 22, 201148.6%44.1%8.2%
National Chengchi University November 28, 201150.0%43.2%10.1%
National Chengchi University December 2, 201149.9%41.9%11.7%
National Chengchi University December 4, 201150.1%42.1%10.8%
National Chengchi University December 7, 201150.1%42.6%11.2%
National Chengchi University December 11, 201150.3%41.6%10.9%
National Chengchi University December 16, 201151.7%41.4%9.1%
National Chengchi University December 18, 201151.9%41.6%8.6%
National Chengchi University December 21, 201151.3%42.0%8.3%
National Chengchi University December 26, 201150.4%43.0%7.7%
National Chengchi University December 29, 201150.5%44.1%7.4%
National Chengchi University January 2, 201250.3%43.6%10.1%
National Chengchi University January 3, 201249.8%42.6%10.7%

Election forecast maps

Forecast Source National Chengchi University National Chengchi University National Chengchi University
Date of ReleaseSeptember 9, 2011September 27, 2011November 11, 2011
Forecast Map 20110909-Xfuture-forecast.png 20110927-Xfuture-forecast.png 20111111-Xfuture-forecast.png
Date of ReleaseNovember 17, 2011December 16, 2011December 21, 2011
Forecast Map 20111117-Xfuture-forecast.png 20111218-Xfuture-forecast.png 20111221-Xfuture-forecast.png
Forecast Source National Chengchi University [ permanent dead link ] National Chengchi University [ permanent dead link ] National Chengchi University [ permanent dead link ]
Date of ReleaseDecember 26, 2011January 2, 2012January 3, 2012
Forecast Map 20111226-Xfuture-forecast.png 20111117-Xfuture-forecast.png 20111117-Xfuture-forecast.png
Legend
  Municipalities, counties and cities where Tsai Ing-Wen is forecast to lead.
  Municipalities, counties and cities where Ma Ying-Jeou is forecast to lead.
  Municipalities, counties and cities where James Soong is forecast to lead.

Related Research Articles

George Gallup American statistician

George Horace Gallup was an American pioneer of survey sampling techniques and inventor of the Gallup poll, a successful statistical method of survey sampling for measuring public opinion.

Opinion poll type of survey

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.

An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even months to count.

2008 Taiwanese presidential election

The 12th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China was held on 22 March 2008. Kuomintang (KMT) nominee Ma Ying-jeou won with 58% of the vote, ending eight years of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rule. Along with the 2008 legislative election, Ma's landslide victory brought the Kuomintang back to power in Taiwan.

In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were introduced by George Gallup in the late 1930s to gauge public support for the president of the United States during their term. An approval rating is a percentage determined by a polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Typically, an approval rating is given to a politician based on responses to a poll in which a sample of people are asked whether they approve or disapprove of that particular political figure. A question might ask:

Warren J. Mitofsky was an American political pollster.

Gallup, Inc. is an American analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Starting in the 1980s, Gallup transitioned its business to focus on providing analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition to its analytics, management consulting, and Gallup Poll, the company also offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.

Rasmussen Reports is a Right Wing American polling company, founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings.

FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008 as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus.

Political forecasting aims at predicting the outcome of elections.

Claude E. Robinson (1900–1961) was an American pioneer in advertising research and opinion survey research techniques. Along with George Gallup, he was instrumental in developing many scientific sampling techniques that were later used in Gallup polls and other public opinion research surveys.

2010 Taiwanese local elections

Local elections were held in Taiwan on 27 November 2010 to elect mayors, councillors, and village chiefs of special-municipalities, known as the Five Municipalities Elections. Mayoral candidates for the Kuomintang were elected in New Taipei, Taipei, and Taichung, while candidates for the Democratic Progressive Party were elected in Kaohsiung and Tainan. On the eve of the election, Sean Lien, son of former Vice President Chan Lien, was shot in face when he was campaigning for a Kuomintang New Taipei councillor candidate.

This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election. The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.

Insights West is a full service Canadian market research and polling company. It was established in 2012 by Steve Mossop to provide services to private and public sector clients across Western Canada.

In the run-up to the general election on 8 June 2017, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

Voter segments in political polling in the United States consist of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters.

American Research Group, Incorporated is a U.S. opinion polling and marketing research company based in Manchester, New Hampshire, and founded in 1985. The president is Lafell Dickinson Bennett, known as Dick Bennett, who was the pollster for presidential candidate John B. Anderson in 1980.

This is a list of opinion polls taken on the Presidency of Donald Trump in 2018.

References

  1. Stewart, Chris (December 23, 2006). "Gallup vs Gallup Taiwan". Taipei Times. Retrieved January 11, 2012.
  2. The Exchange of Future Events, The Center for Prediction Markets, National Chengchi University, November 17, 2011


National Emblem of the Republic of China.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
the Republic of China
Flag of the Republic of China.svg Taiwanportal