Passer rating

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Passer rating (also known as quarterback rating, QB rating, or passing efficiency in college football) is a measure of the performance of passers, primarily quarterbacks, in gridiron football. [1] There are two formulas currently in use: one used by both the National Football League (NFL) and Canadian Football League (CFL), and the other used in NCAA football. Passer rating is calculated using a player's passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Passer rating in the NFL is on a scale from 0 to 158.3. Passing efficiency in college football is on a scale from −731.6 to 1261.6.

Contents

Since 1973, passer rating has been the official formula used by the NFL to determine its passing leader. [2]

History

Before the development of the passer rating, the NFL struggled with how to crown a passing leader. In the mid-1930s, it was the quarterback with the most passing yardage. From 1938 to 1940, it was the quarterback with the highest completion percentage. In 1941, a system was created that ranked the league's quarterbacks relative to their peers' performance. Over the next thirty years the criteria used to crown a passing leader changed several times, but the ranking system made it impossible to determine a quarterback's rank until all the other quarterbacks were done playing that week, or to compare quarterback performances across multiple seasons. In 1971, NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle asked the league's statistical committee to develop a better system. [3] The committee was headed by Don Smith of the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Seymour Siwoff of the Elias Sports Bureau, and NFL executive Don Weiss. Smith and Siwoff established passing performance standards based on data from all qualified pro football passers between 1960 and 1970, and used those data to create the passer rating. The formula was adopted by the NFL in 1973. [2]

NFL and CFL formula

The NFL passer rating formula includes five variables: pass attempts, completions, passing yards, touchdowns passes, and interceptions. Each of those variables is scaled to a value between 0 and 2.375, with 1.0 being statistically average (based on league data between 1960–1970). When the formula was first created, a 66.7 rating indicated an average performance, and a 100+ rating indicated an excellent performance. [3] However, passing performance has improved steadily since then and in 2017 the league average rating was 88.6. [4]

The four separate calculations can be expressed in the following equations:


where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TD = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions

If the result of any calculation is greater than 2.375, it is set to 2.375. If the result is a negative number, it is set to zero.

Then, the above calculations are used to complete the passer rating:

A perfect passer rating (158.33) requires at least: [1] A minimum rating (0.0) requires at best:

77.5% completion percentage (31 completions in 40 attempts)
12.5 yards per attempt
11.875% TD/ATT (1 TD/8.421ATT)
No interceptions

30.0% completion percentage
3.0 yards per attempt
No touchdowns
9.5% INT/ATT (1INT/10.526ATT)

NCAA formula

The NCAA passing efficiency formula is similar to that of the NFL passer rating, but does not impose limits on the four components: [5]

where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TD = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions

The NCAA passer rating has an upper limit of 1,261.6 (every attempt is a 99-yard completion for a touchdown), and a lower limit of −731.6 (every attempt is completed, but results in a 99-yard loss). A passer who throws only interceptions will have a −200 rating, as would a passer who only throws completed passes losing an average of 35.714 yards.

Advantages

In 2011, Sports Illustrated published an article by Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts highlighting the importance of passer rating in determining a team's success. [6] "Put most simply," the article states, "you cannot be a smart football analyst and dismiss passer rating. In fact, it's impossible to look at the incredible correlation of victory to passer rating and then dismiss it. You might as well dismiss the score of a game when determining a winner. [...] Few, if any, are more indicative of wins and losses than passer rating. Teams that posted a higher passer rating went 203–53 (.793) in 2010 and an incredible 151–29 (.839) after Week 5." Byrne made an expanded defense of the passer rating and its importance for the Pro Football Researchers Association in 2012. [7] The study showed that all of the eight teams since 1940 that led the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating won championships. [8]

Flaws

The biggest criticism of passer rating is that it is too simple a stat that fails to take into account more the full scope of a quarterback’s contributions to the team's performance. For example, the equation does not take into account a quarterback’s rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, sacks, or fumbles and favors quarterbacks that are efficient over effective. [9] Pro Football Focus writer Nathan Jahnke provides a good example of this phenomenon in the following scenario of two different quarterbacks:

Average NFL passer rating by year. Data from: Pro Football Reference Passer-rating-averages-by-year.jpg
Average NFL passer rating by year. Data from: Pro Football Reference

If Quarterback A completes three passes for three yards in a row, then they would have a passer rating of 79.17.

Meanwhile, Quarterback B throws three straight passes, with the first two falling incomplete, while the third is caught for a 30-yard gain. The quarterback's passer rating in this circumstance is 43.75. [10]

Albeit, Quarterback A does have a greater completion rate and is more efficient than Quarterback B, they still failed to gain 10 yards on the play and reward their team with a first down. On the other hand, Quarterback B wasn't necessarily efficient in his throws, but on their last throw, they were able to make a completion of 30 yards and effectively gives their offense a new set of downs and are now likely on their opponent's half of the field as well.

Due to new rules that favor NFL offenses, such as the roughing the passer penalty, an increase in the number of games, most recently in 1978, and teams opting to pass more than ever, almost all of the passer rating leaders are quarterbacks from the past two decades. Since 1950, there have been 93 quarterbacks who have finished the season with a passer rating of greater than 100.0, yet 9 of those seasons happened in 2018 alone. Moreover, Steve Young and Joe Montana are the only two quarterbacks whose careers ended prior to 2000 and are among the top 25 passer ratings in NFL history. The graph on the right shows a good visual representation of the passer rating inflation since 1950. [9]

Therefore, passer rating is not a valid stat when comparing quarterbacks from two different eras. However, within an era and season itself, passer rating is a much more accurate and reliable stat to measure the true effectiveness of a quarterback.

Other Measurements

Total Quarterback Rating (QBR)

ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating is a proprietary statistic that was first introduced in 2011 and is designed to measure the total effectiveness and performance of a quarterback. The metric takes into account all of a quarterback's contribution to a game, including: passing, rushing, sacks, penalties, touchdowns, and turnovers. [11] Moreover, each play is weighted based on its "difficulty", the context of the game, and the strength of the opposing defense. This means that statistics in garbage time of a blowout game hold less merit than statistics in a close game. Also, a quarterback who throws for four touchdowns and 300 yards against a strong defense will have a higher QBR than a quarterback who has the same stat line against the worst defense in the NFL. [11]

QBR functions on a 0–100 scale, where an average NFL quarterback typically has around a 50 QBR, while a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback will have approximately a 75. This scale also represents a percentile of overall quarterback performances since 2006. Meaning that if a quarterback has a QBR of 90, then their performance in that game is, on average, better than 90% of other quarterback performances. [12]

It is also very common for there to be significant differences between QBR and passer rating leaders, especially since passer rating favors yardage and pure volume of passing attempts rather than efficiency and performance. For example, in 2019 Lamar Jackson had a league leading QBR of 83.0 and earned MVP honors. However, Jackson finished 3rd in passer rating (113.3) behind Ryan Tannehill (117.5) and Drew Brees (116.3) who finished 9th and 3rd for QBR.

PFF Player Grades

Pro Football Focus (PFF) is a football website that conducts in-depth analysis on NFL and NCAA games and players. Part of this analysis is assigning each football player in the NFL and NCAA teams in the Power Five a grade that indicates the performance of said player. [13]

According to the PFF website, the group's algorithm analyzes every play for each individual player and measures the impact that said player has while on the field. A player's impact is then given a grade between −2 to +2 in 0.5 increments. [13] Each position has a scale with a unique algorithm and rules. The scale also takes into account game context, so a strong play in the fourth quarter of a close matchup will be graded higher than one in the 2nd quarter of a blowout game.

A 0 player grade on any given play represents any position player performing at an expected level and in a manner that neither positively nor negatively impacts their team. An example of this is a running back taking a carry through the correct hole and picking up 3 – 4 yards on first and ten. Meanwhile, a +2 represents an incredible performance on a play that shifts the dynamic of a game in favor of the player's team. Brandon Graham's, a defensive end for the Philadelphia Eagles, strip sack on Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII would have easily been a +2 rating. [13] On the other hand a −2 is a play that catastrophically hinders a team's chance of winning, such as a quarterback throwing a pick-six in the fourth quarter of a close game. Ambiguous plays where the outcome is unclear on how a player impacted their team are typically given a 0.

The sum of these plus-minuses are then converted on a 0–100 scale and produce a grade for a single game. However, a player's season grade is not the average of the 16 grades a player receives each game. Instead, PFF credits a player's entire body of work and longevity throughout the season. It is, therefore, possible for a player to have a higher season grade than any individual grade that a player received in any game he played in. [13]

Records

NFL

Wide receiver Antwaan Randle El, with a passer rating of 157.5 from 21 completed passes of a possible 26, has the highest career rating of any non-QB with more than twenty attempts. [16] Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning hold the record for the most games with a perfect passer rating (4). As of 2019, 74 NFL quarterbacks have completed a game with a perfect passer rating of 158.3, and seven have done so multiple times. Phil Simms holds the record for the highest passer rating in a Super Bowl, at 150.92 in Super Bowl XXI.

All-Time NFL Passer Rating Leaders

+ means Hall of Famer.

1 Patrick Mahomes 108.72017-2020KC
2 Deshaun Watson 104.52017-2020HOU
3 Aaron Rodgers 103.92005–2020GB
4 Russell Wilson 101.72012–2020SEA
5 Drew Brees 98.72001–20202TM
6 Dak Prescott 97.32016–2020DAL
7 Tony Romo 97.12004–2016DAL
8 Tom Brady 97.02000–20202TM
9 Kirk Cousins 96.82012–20202TM
Steve Young+96.81985–19992TM
11 Peyton Manning+96.51998–20152TM
12 Philip Rivers 95.02004–20202TM
13 Matt Ryan 94.82008–2020ATL
14 Ben Roethlisberger 94.32004–2020PIT
15 Kurt Warner+93.71998–20093TM
16 Jared Goff 92.32016–2020LAR
Joe Montana+92.31979–19942TM
18 Derek Carr 92.12014–2020LV
19 Ryan Tannehill 91.22012–20202TM
20 Chad Pennington 90.12000–20102TM
Carson Wentz 90.12016–2020PHI
22 Marcus Mariota 89.62015–20192TM
23 Andrew Luck 89.52012–2018IND
Matt Schaub 89.52004–20194TM
Matthew Stafford 89.52009–2020DET
26 Colin Kaepernick 88.92011–2016SF
27 Carson Palmer 87.92003–20175TM

[17]

NCAA

See also

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References

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  8. 1941 Bears, 1943 Bears, 1949 Eagles, 1955 Browns, 1958 Colts, 1959 Colts, 1966 Packers, and 1996 Packers
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