Post-election pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1992 Victorian state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Liberal/National seats
Marginal
Frankston East Peter McLellan LIB0.2%
Geelong Ann Henderson LIB0.7%
Bendigo West Max Turner LIB1.1%
Essendon Ian Davis LIB1.2%
Tullamarine Bernie Finn LIB1.5%
Ballarat East Barry Traynor LIB1.6%
Ballarat West Paul Jenkins LIB2.7%
Oakleigh Denise McGill LIB2.9%
Ivanhoe Vin Heffernan LIB4.3%
Cranbourne Gary Rowe LIB4.7%
Monbulk Steve McArthur LIB5.3%
Narracan John Delzoppo LIB5.4%
Fairly safe
Knox Hurtle Lupton LIB6.1%
Berwick Robert Dean LIB7.0%
Ripon Steve Elder LIB7.1%
Bayswater Gordon Ashley LIB7.1%
Mordialloc Geoff Leigh LIB7.3%
Prahran Don Hayward LIB7.8%
Bellarine Garry Spry LIB7.9%
Bentleigh Inga Peulich LIB8.2%
Mitcham Roger Pescott LIB8.5%
Bendigo East Michael John LIB9.1%
Burwood Jeff Kennett LIB9.3%
Safe
Eltham Wayne Philips LIB10.0%
Mooroolbark Lorraine Elliott LIB10.1%
South Barwon Alister Paterson LIB10.8%
Seymour Marie Tehan LIB11.0%
Bennettswood Geoff Coleman LIB11.8%
Dromana Tony Hyams LIB12.0%
Gisborne Tom Reynolds LIB12.9%
Mornington Robin Cooper LIB12.9%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB13.2%
Caulfield Ted Tanner LIB13.9%
Wantirna Kim Wells LIB14.1%
Pakenham Rob Maclellan LIB14.4%
Benambra Tony Plowman LIB14.7%
Evelyn Jim Plowman LIB15.2%
Forest Hill John Richardson LIB15.3%
Polwarth Ian Smith LIB15.8%
Warrandyte Phil Honeywood LIB16.7%
Portland Denis Napthine LIB17.1%
Frankston Graeme Weideman LIB17.5%
Gippsland West Alan Brown LIB17.9%
Doncaster Victor Perton LIB18.1%
Bulleen David Perrin LIB18.2%
Hawthorn Phil Gude LIB18.4%
Glen Waverley Ross Smith LIB19.5%
Shepparton Don Kilgour NAT19.5%
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB19.9%
Very safe
Benalla Pat McNamara NAT20.8%
Mildura Craig Bildstien LIB20.9%
Kew Jan Wade LIB21.5%
Malvern Robert Doyle LIB22.5%
Brighton Alan Stockdale LIB22.8%
Gippsland East David Treasure NAT23.4%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT23.9%
Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT24.0%
Warrnambool John McGrath NAT25.8%
Rodney Noel Maughan NAT26.0%
Swan Hill Barry Steggall NAT29.4%
Wimmera Bill McGrath NAT29.6%
Labor seats
Marginal
Dandenong North Jan Wilson ALP0.1%
Carrum Mal Sandon ALP0.9%
Bundoora Sherryl Garbutt ALP1.1%
Yan Yean Andre Haermeyer ALP1.9%
Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP3.1%
Niddrie Bob Sercombe [4] ALP3.6%
Morwell Keith Hamilton ALP4.0%
Albert Park John Thwaites ALP5.8%
Fairly safe
Pascoe Vale Kelvin Thomson [4] ALP8.0%
Springvale Eddie Micallef ALP8.0%
Werribee Ken Coghill ALP8.3%
Clayton Gerard Vaughan ALP8.4%
Keilor George Seitz ALP8.9%
Geelong North Peter Loney ALP9.6%
Safe
Melton David Cunningham ALP10.0%
Altona Carole Marple ALP10.9%
Williamstown Steve Bracks [3] ALP11.0%
Coburg Tom Roper [2] ALP11.2%
Melbourne Neil Cole ALP12.1%
Mill Park Alex Andrianopoulos ALP12.3%
Richmond Demetri Dollis ALP13.3%
Sunshine Ian Baker ALP13.3%
Williamstown Joan Kirner [3] ALP14.2%
Northcote Tony Sheehan ALP15.2%
Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP16.2%
Preston Michael Leighton ALP16.2%
Coburg Carlo Carli [2] ALP16.3%
Broadmeadows John Brumby [1] ALP16.8% (primary)
Broadmeadows Jim Kennan [1] ALP19.4%
Very safe
Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP20.0%
Niddrie Rob Hulls [4] ALPUnopp

Notes

1 On 28 June 1993, the Labor member for Broadmeadows, Jim Kennan, resigned. Labor candidate John Brumby won the resulting by-election on 18 September 1993. No two-party count was performed for the by-election.
2 In March 1994, the Labor member for Coburg, Tom Roper, resigned. Labor candidate Carlo Carli won the resulting by-election on 14 May 1994.
3 On 27 May 1994, the Labor member for Williamstown and former Premier of Victoria, Joan Kirner, resigned. Labor candidate Steve Bracks won the resulting by-election on 13 August 1994.
4 Bob Sercombe and Kelvin Thomson, respectively the Labor members for Niddrie and Pascoe Vale, resigned in February 1996 to contest seats at the 1996 federal election. Rob Hulls was elected unopposed to Niddrie at the close of nominations on 29 February 1996. Two nominations were received for Pascoe Vale by 29 February for a March 30 by-election, but the by-election was cancelled when the state election was called for the same day.

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