The preparedness paradox is the proposition that if a society or individual acts effectively to mitigate a potential disaster such as a pandemic, natural disaster or other catastrophe so that it causes less harm, the avoided danger will be perceived as having been much less serious because of the limited damage actually caused. The paradox is the incorrect perception that there had been no need for careful preparation as there was little harm, although in reality the limitation of the harm was due to preparation. Several cognitive biases can consequently hamper proper preparation for future risks. [1]
The term "preparedness paradox" has been used occasionally since at least 1949 [2] in different contexts, usually in the military and financial system. [3] [4] The term regained traction in reference to the COVID-19 pandemic and to the overall government response worldwide. [5] [6]
Another notable citation of the term was in 2017 by Roland Berger regarding executives in the aerospace and defense industry: almost two thirds of those surveyed reported that they were well-prepared for geopolitical changes, about which they could do nothing, while feeling unprepared in areas such as changes in technology and innovation, to which they should be much more able to respond. In contrast, other surveys found that boards and financial professionals were increasingly concerned about geopolitical risk. Berger concluded that there was an urgent need for more and better business strategies throughout industry to close this gap in preparedness. [4]
Organisms with faster life histories and shorter lives are disproportionately affected by chaotic or hostile environments. These types of organisms innately have a greater fear of environmental disasters or emergencies. However, organisms with slower life histories, such as humans, may have less urgency in dealing with these types of events. Instead, they have more time and ability to prepare for such emergencies. [7]
Cognitive biases play a large role in the lack of urgency in preparation, hampering efforts to prevent disasters. [8] These include over-optimism, in which the degree of disaster is underestimated, and the fact that many disasters do not reach their breaking point until it is too late to take action. [9] In over-optimism and normalcy bias, people believe that disasters will happen elsewhere, and even if they do happen locally only their neighbors will be affected. [8]
Another obstacle to preparedness is the interval between disasters. When there is a long time between disasters, there is less urgency to prepare. This is due to fewer people remembering the last disaster, which reduces its emotional impact on the group. [8] This effect is heightened when some measure of action is taken to prevent the disaster, which further reduces the memory of the original danger and consequences. [10]
Financial concerns can also contribute to the preparedness paradox. There is a tendency to over-value known short-term costs, as well as to under-value unknown long-term rewards. [8] The fact that preparing for disasters is expensive in the short term and its value in the long term cannot be determined could lead to catastrophic consequences if the choice is made to not prepare. [2]
Levees are structures which run parallel to rivers and are meant to offer protection from flooding. The long-term safety afforded by them can lead to the misperception that an area protected by them is "flood free", leading to unsafe land development in the floodplain. [10]
Preparing for a pandemic is an example of the preparedness paradox. If sufficient investment in preparation meant that a small outbreak could be identified and contained before it could spread, then no mass deaths or economic failure would occur as a result, and there would no clear evidence that the preparation had been warranted. [9]
Earth's ozone hole and acid rain were significantly mitigated, but in 2022, right-wing political commentator Matt Walsh pointed to the current lack of public discourse on them to suggest that those threats were never anything to worry about. [11]
Historical perspective can also contribute to the preparedness paradox. From the point of view of historians after the Year 2000 problem, the preventative action taken has been described as an "overreaction", instead of a successful effort to prepare for an upcoming problem. [1]
Biosecurity refers to measures aimed at preventing the introduction and/or spread of harmful organisms intentionally or unintentionally outside their native range and/or within new environments. In agriculture, these measures are aimed at protecting food crops and livestock from pests, invasive species, and other organisms not conducive to the welfare of the human population. The term includes biological threats to people, including those from pandemic diseases and bioterrorism. The definition has sometimes been broadened to embrace other concepts, and it is used for different purposes in different contexts.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is an agency of the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS), initially created under President Jimmy Carter by Presidential Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1978 and implemented by two Executive Orders on April 1, 1979. The agency's primary purpose is to coordinate the response to a disaster that has occurred in the United States and that overwhelms the resources of local and state authorities. The governor of the state in which the disaster occurs must declare a state of emergency and formally request from the President that FEMA and the federal government respond to the disaster. The only exception to the state's gubernatorial declaration requirement occurs when an emergency or disaster takes place on federal property or to a federal asset—for example, the 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, or the Space Shuttle Columbia in the 2003 return-flight disaster.
Survivalism is a social movement of individuals or groups who proactively prepare for emergencies, such as natural disasters, and other disasters causing disruption to social order caused by political or economic crises. Preparations may anticipate short-term scenarios or long-term, on scales ranging from personal adversity, to local disruption of services, to international or global catastrophe. There is no bright line dividing general emergency preparedness from prepping in the form of survivalism, but a qualitative distinction is often recognized whereby preppers/survivalists prepare especially extensively because they have higher estimations of the risk of catastrophes happening. Nonetheless, prepping can be as limited as preparing for a personal emergency, or it can be as extensive as a personal identity or collective identity with a devoted lifestyle.
A humanitarian crisis is defined as a singular event or a series of events that are threatening in terms of health, safety or well-being of a community or large group of people. It may be an internal or external conflict and usually occurs throughout a large land area. Local, national and international responses are necessary in such events.
Emergency management is a science and a system charged with creating the framework within which communities reduce vulnerability to hazards and cope with disasters. Emergency management, despite its name, does not actually focus on the management of emergencies; emergency management or disaster management can be understood as minor events with limited impacts and are managed through the day-to-day functions of a community. Instead, emergency management focuses on the management of disasters, which are events that produce more impacts than a community can handle on its own. The management of disasters tends to require some combination of activity from individuals and households, organizations, local, and/or higher levels of government. Although many different terminologies exist globally, the activities of emergency management can be generally categorized into preparedness, response, mitigation, and recovery, although other terms such as disaster risk reduction and prevention are also common. The outcome of emergency management is to prevent disasters and where this is not possible, to reduce their harmful impacts.
Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects. The normalcy bias causes many people to prepare inadequately for natural disasters, market crashes, and calamities caused by human error. About 80% of people reportedly display normalcy bias during a disaster.
Hurricane preparedness in New Orleans has been an issue since the city's early settlement because of its location.
Hurricane Katrina struck the United States on August 29, 2005, causing over a thousand deaths and extreme property damage, particularly in New Orleans. The incident affected numerous areas of governance, including disaster preparedness and environmental policy.
Preparedness is a set of actions that are taken as precautionary measures in the face of potential disasters. Being prepared helps in achieving goals and in avoiding and mitigating negative outcomes.
Risk communication is a complex cross-disciplinary academic field that is part of risk management and related to fields like crisis communication. The goal is to make sure that targeted audiences understand how risks affect them or their communities by appealing to their values.
The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) is a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) office responsible for the procurement and development of medical countermeasures, principally against bioterrorism, including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats, as well as pandemic influenza and emerging diseases. BARDA was established in 2006 through the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) and reports to the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR). The office manages Project BioShield, which funds the research, development and stockpiling of vaccines and treatments that the government could use during public health emergencies such as chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attacks.
On December 19, 2006, the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA), Public Law No. 109-417, was signed into law by President George W. Bush. First introduced in the House by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) and Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-CA), PAHPA had broad implications for the United States Department of Health and Human Services's (HHS) preparedness and response activities. Among other things, the act amended the Public Health Service Act to establish within the department a new Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR); provided new authorities for a number of programs, including the advanced development and acquisitions of medical countermeasures; and called for the establishment of a quadrennial National Health Security Strategy.
Ready Georgia is a statewide emergency preparedness campaign in the U.S. state of Georgia instituted by the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) and Governor Sonny Perdue in conjunction with the national Ready America campaign sponsored by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Ready Georgia is supported by The Ad Council, local volunteer organizations, and corporate partnerships.
"Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse" is a blog post made in May 2011 by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that uses a zombie apocalypse to raise public awareness of emergency preparedness. In a blog post titled "Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse", the director of the CDC's Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response, Rear Admiral Ali S. Khan writes: "Take a zombie apocalypse for example. That's right, I said z-o-m-b-i-e a-p-o-c-a-l-y-p-s-e. You may laugh now, but when it happens you'll be happy you read this, and hey, maybe you'll even learn a thing or two about how to prepare for a real emergency." Comparing the upcoming hurricane season and possible pandemics to "flesh-eating zombies" from the horror film Night of the Living Dead and the video game series Resident Evil, Khan recommends Americans prepare for natural disasters as they would have prepared for "ravenous monsters". The blog post was part of a larger zombie-themed campaign retired by mid-2022 and replaced with the Prep Your Health CDC website.
Biosecurity in the United States is governed by the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, which is part of the US Department of State. It obtains guidance and advice on specific matters relating to biosecurity from various other government agencies.
In emergency management, higher learning institutions must frequently adapt broad, varied policies to deal with the unique scope of disasters that can occur in on-campus settings. Hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and wildfires are among some of the most common natural disasters that possess the capacity for large losses of life and property, with the potential to effectively destroy a university community. Man-made crises also can pose a serious threat to life and property, as was evident in the case of the 2007 Virginia Tech shooting. In order to preemptively reduce or prevent the severity of emergency situations, universities must coordinate and implement policies to effectively eliminate unnecessary risks' and decrease potential losses.
Vulnerability refers to "the quality or state of being exposed to the possibility of being attacked or harmed, either physically or emotionally." The understanding of social and environmental vulnerability, as a methodological approach, involves the analysis of the risks and assets of disadvantaged groups, such as the elderly. The approach of vulnerability in itself brings great expectations of social policy and gerontological planning. Types of vulnerability include social, cognitive, environmental, emotional or military.
Disaster preparedness in museums, galleries, libraries, archives and private collections, involves any actions taken to plan for, prevent, respond or recover from natural disasters and other events that can cause damage or loss to cultural property. 'Disasters' in this context may include large-scale natural events such as earthquakes, flooding or bushfire, as well as human-caused events such as theft and vandalism. Increasingly, anthropogenic climate change is a factor in cultural heritage disaster planning, due to rising sea levels, changes in rainfall patterns, warming average temperatures, and more frequent extreme weather events.
Howard Charles Kunreuther was an American economist. He was the James G. Dinan professor emeritus of decision sciences and public policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters is a nonfiction book about anticipating disasters, written by Juliette Kayyem and published by PublicAffairs, Kayyem observes that disasters are increasing, inevitable, and managing risk before and after disasters is important. The book also emphasizes situational awareness to help with mitigation.
General Bradley | There is a preparedness paradox that continually confronts military planners. On one had, we are constantly aware of the tremendous expense of military preparedness ... if we spend more annually than we can afford, we could let our expenditures for preparedness lead us into bankruptcy ... On the other hand, the tremendous expense ... is necessary if we are to have the Army ready for the performance of the missions we have been assigned.
A preparedness paradox exists. On the one hand, to prepare the public to be able to act [in a CBRN terrorism crisis] ... On the other hand, lack of trust in and underestimation of the abilities of the public to act ...