Queensland state election, 1998

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Queensland state election, 1998
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  1995 13 June 1998 (1998-06-13) 2001  →
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority

 First partySecond partyThird party
  Peter Beattie August 2013 (cropped).jpg One Nation placeholder-01.png
Leader Peter Beattie Rob Borbidge Heather Hill
Party Labor National/Liberal coalition One Nation
Leader since20 February 1996 (1996-02-20)10 December 19911998
Leader's seat Brisbane Central Surfers Paradise Contested Ipswich [1] (lost)
Last election45 seats43 seats–
Seats won44 seats32 seats11 seats
Seat changeDecrease2.svg1Decrease2.svg11Increase2.svg11
Percentage38.86%31.26%22.68%
SwingDecrease2.svg4.03Decrease2.svg17.73Increase2.svg22.68
Premier before election

Rob Borbidge
National/Liberal coalition

Resulting Premier

Peter Beattie
Labor

Elections were held in the Australian state of Queensland on 13 June 1998 to elect the 89 members of the state's Legislative Assembly.

Contents

The result of the election was a second consecutive hung parliament, with the Labor Party forming minority government after receiving the support of independent Peter Wellington. This election was the first in which One Nation supporters were elected to state Parliament, with the controversial party winning 11 seats. With nearly 23% of the vote, One Nation gained a higher percentage of the vote than any other third party (i.e. not Labor or Coalition) at the state or territory level since Federation. This was also the only election at which a third party gained more votes than both the Liberal Party and the National Party considered separately. Unlike in previous elections, no attempt was made to calculate the statewide two-party preferred vote (2PP), because the One Nation vote was so high that any 2PP result would have been meaningless.

A few months after the election, the One Nation member for Mulgrave, Charles Rappolt resigned. Labor won the ensuing by-election, allowing it to form government with a bare majority of 45 seats.

The fact that the Coalition Government came to office as a direct result of the 1996 Mundingburra by-election instead of the general election the previous year, as well as its failure to win in its own right at the 1998 election, meant that the 1998 election was the fourth consecutive election victory for the Queensland Branch of the ALP, which had won every election since 1989.

Background

The previous state election had resulted in one of the narrowest margins of any Australian election. The Coalition won a slim majority of the two-party vote. However, the Coalition's majority was wasted on massive landslides in its rural heartland, while Labor won 31 seats in Brisbane. Labor Premier Wayne Goss' government thus clung to life by a single seat. This was brought undone when the Court of Disputed Returns ordered a new election in the disputed seat of Mundingburra, which the Liberals won on a modest swing. The balance of power rested with newly elected Independent MLA Liz Cunningham, who announced her support for the Coalition. Goss resigned, and Nationals leader Rob Borbidge was appointed as Premier.

The Borbidge government's popularity suffered in the later part of its term due to the federal Howard government's GST plans. Seeking to create a more definite majority, Borbidge called a new election on 19 May 1998. [2] Although early polling showed the government to be strongly competitive with Labor, led by Peter Beattie, later polls saw Labor gain a substantial lead. [2]

However, the debate between the two parties was rapidly sidelined by One Nation's emerging support. Formed in 1997 by federal Independent MP for Oxley Pauline Hanson, One Nation gained significant support on a platform of economic nationalism, anti-immigration sentiments and opposition to native title. Its platform was particularly well received in the Nationals' heartland of rural Queensland; indeed, at the time the writs were dropped, there had been fears over the past two years that One Nation would sweep the Nationals out of existence. One Nation stood candidates in 79 seats, all largely political novices. The issue of preference allocations to One Nation, under Queensland's optional preferential voting (OPV) system, became a major campaign issue, with eventual poor results for the Liberals attributed to opposition from many of their traditional voters over their decision not to put One Nation last on preferences.

Borbidge had been well aware of the threat from One Nation. He tried to have One Nation preferenced last on Coalition how-to-vote cards. However, the national Liberal and National organisations pressured their Queensland counterparts to preference One Nation ahead of Labor. They apparently thought that One Nation's populism would peel off enough Labor voters to allow the Coalition to win another term.

Key dates

DateEvent
19 May 1998Writs were issued by the Governor to proceed with an election. [3]
23 May 1998Close of electoral rolls.
26 May 1998Close of nominations.
13 June 1998Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm.
25 June 1998 Peter Wellington announced that he would support a minority Labor government.
26 June 1998The Borbidge Ministry resigned and the interim Beattie Ministry was sworn in. [4]
29 June 1998The full Beattie Ministry was sworn in.
27 July 1998The writ was returned and the results formally declared.

Results

One Nation won 11 seats and finished second (after preferences) in 23 seats. Seven of One Nation's seats would have gone to Labor had it not been for leakage of Coalition preferences; had Labor won those seats, it would have been able to form government in its own right. [5]

Queensland state election, 13 June 1998 [6] [7]
Legislative Assembly
<< 1995–2001 >>

Enrolled voters2,115,977
Votes cast1,964,778 Turnout 92.85+1.42
Informal votes28,438Informal1.45–0.30
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes%SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 773,58538.86–4.0344± 0
  One Nation 439,12122.68+22.6811+11
  Liberal 311,51416.09–6.659– 5
  Nationals 293,83915.17–11.0823– 7
  Greens 45,7092.36–0.510± 0
  Democrats 31,1191.61+0.360± 0
  Australia First 9,5600.49+0.490± 0
  Reform 7,6580.40+0.400± 0
  Christian Democrats 2,0980.110± 0
  Shooters 1,0580.05+0.050± 0
  Women's Party 2990.01+0.010± 0
  Independent 41,9912.17–1.302+ 1
Total1,936,340  89 

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-1998SwingPost-1998
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Barambah  National Trevor Perrett 24.4-30.35.9 Dorothy Pratt One Nation 
Barron River  Liberal Lyn Warwick 0.4-1.00.6 Lesley Clark Labor 
Burdekin  National Mark Stoneman 10.6-20.09.4 Jeff Knuth One Nation 
Caboolture  Labor Jon Sullivan 2.3-5.02.7 Bill Feldman One Nation 
Greenslopes  Liberal Ted Radke 0.1-5.35.2 Gary Fenlon Labor 
Hervey Bay  Labor Bill Nunn 1.9-7.25.3 David Dalgleish One Nation 
Ipswich West  Labor Don Livingstone 5.5-7.31.9 Jack Paff One Nation 
Lockyer  National Tony Fitzgerald 20.8-24.53.7 Peter Prenzler One Nation 
Mansfield  Liberal Frank Carroll 6.7-6.90.2 Phil Reeves Labor 
Maryborough  Labor Bob Dollin 0.4-8.78.3 John Kingston One Nation 
Mount Ommaney  Liberal Bob Harper 1.7-3.61.9 Julie Attwood Labor 
Mulgrave  National Naomi Wilson 0.5-4.64.1 Charles Rappolt One Nation 
Mundingburra Liberal Frank Tanti 2.8-6.63.8 Lindy Nelson-Carr Labor 
Nicklin  National Neil Turner 12.8-18.55.7 Peter Wellington Independent 
Springwood  Liberal Luke Woolmer 10.8-11.40.6 Grant Musgrove Labor 
Tablelands  National Tom Gilmore 23.0-23.30.3 Shaun Nelson One Nation 
Thuringowa  Labor Ken McElligott 1.4-8.06.6 Ken Turner One Nation 
Whitsunday  Labor Lorraine Bird 0.1-1.81.7 Harry Black One Nation 

Post-election pendulum

GOVERNMENT SEATS (45)
Marginal
Mansfield Phil Reeves ALP0.2%
Barron River Lesley Clark ALP0.6%
Springwood Grant Musgrove ALP0.6%
Mount Ommaney Julie Attwood ALP1.9%
Bundaberg Nita Cunningham ALP2.0% v ONP
Cairns Desley Boyle ALP2.3% v ONP
Redcliffe Ray Hollis ALP2.3%
Currumbin Merri Rose ALP2.8%
Ipswich David Hamill ALP3.4% v ONP
Mundingburra Lindy Nelson-Carr ALP3.8%
Kallangur Ken Hayward ALP3.9% v ONP
Murrumba Dean Wells ALP5.0% v ONP
Greenslopes Gary Fenlon ALP5.2%
Waterford Tom Barton ALP5.2% v ONP
Nicklin Peter Wellington IND5.7% v NAT
Fairly safe
Everton Rod Welford ALP6.0%
Ashgrove Jim Fouras ALP6.1%
Bundamba Bob Gibbs ALP6.2% v ONP
Cleveland Darryl Briskey ALP6.4%
Mackay Tim Mulherin ALP6.5% v ONP
Mount Gravatt Judy Spence ALP7.2%
Townsville Mike Reynolds ALP7.7%
Sunnybank Stephen Robertson ALP8.2%
Logan John Mickel ALP8.4% v ONP
Ferny Grove Geoff Wilson ALP8.6%
Chatsworth Terry Mackenroth ALP8.7%
Chermside Terry Sullivan ALP9.0%
Rockhampton Robert Schwarten ALP9.6% v ONP
Safe
Mount Coot-tha Wendy Edmond ALP10.5%
Fitzroy Jim Pearce ALP10.7% v ONP
Archerfield Karen Struthers ALP11.7%
Yeronga Matt Foley ALP12.5%
Kurwongbah Linda Lavarch ALP13.2%
Woodridge Bill D'Arcy ALP13.5% v ONP
Capalaba Jim Elder ALP13.7%
Kedron Paul Braddy ALP14.1%
Brisbane Central Peter Beattie ALP15.1%
Cook Steve Bredhauer ALP15.5% v ONP
Mount Isa Tony McGrady ALP15.6% v ONP
Sandgate Gordon Nuttall ALP16.0%
South Brisbane Anna Bligh ALP16.3%
Lytton Paul Lucas ALP17.4%
Nudgee Neil Roberts ALP17.4%
Bulimba Pat Purcell ALP19.5%
Inala Henry Palaszczuk ALP27.4%
OPPOSITION SEATS (32)
Marginal
Indooroopilly Denver Beanland LIB0.7%
Crows Nest Russell Cooper NAT0.9% v ONP
Redlands John Hegarty NAT1.0%
Gympie Len Stephan NAT1.7% v ONP
Aspley John Goss LIB1.8%
Callide Jeff Seeney NAT2.3% v ONP
Burnett Doug Slack NAT2.3% v ONP
Mirani Ted Malone NAT2.7%
Keppel Vince Lester NAT3.6%
Charters Towers Rob Mitchell NAT3.7%
Southport Mick Veivers NAT3.8%
Beaudesert Kev Lingard NAT4.1%
Albert Bill Baumann NAT4.8%
Fairly safe
Clayfield Santo Santoro LIB6.5%
Toowoomba North Graham Healy NAT8.2%
Burleigh Judy Gamin NAT8.5%
Hinchinbrook Marc Rowell NAT8.6% v ONP
Cunningham Tony Elliott NAT8.9% v ONP
Moggill David Watson LIB8.9%
Western Downs Brian Littleproud NAT9.4% v ONP
Broadwater Allan Grice NAT9.8%
Noosa Bruce Davidson LIB9.9%
Safe
Caloundra Joan Sheldon LIB10.7%
Nerang Ray Connor LIB11.0%
Warwick Lawrence Springborg NAT11.9% v ONP
Gregory Vaughan Johnson NAT13.1%
Toowoomba South Mike Horan NAT13.4%
Merrimac Bob Quinn LIB14.7%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson NAT15.1% v ONP
Warrego Howard Hobbs NAT15.3%
Mooloolah Bruce Laming LIB15.9%
Surfers Paradise Rob Borbidge NAT22.3%
CROSSBENCH SEATS (12)
Tablelands Shaun Nelson ONP0.3% v NAT
Gladstone Liz Cunningham IND1.4% v ALP
Whitsunday Harry Black ONP1.7% v ALP
Ipswich West Jack Paff ONP1.9% v ALP
Caboolture Bill Feldman ONP2.7% v ALP
Lockyer Peter Prenzler ONP3.7% v NAT
Mulgrave Charles Rappolt ONP4.1% v ALP
Hervey Bay David Dalgleish ONP5.3% v ALP
Barambah Dorothy Pratt ONP5.9% v NAT
Thuringowa Ken Turner ONP6.6% v ALP
Maryborough John Kingston ONP8.3% v ALP
Burdekin Jeff Knuth ONP9.4% v ALP

Polling

Although the Coalition Government initially enjoyed strong levels of support subsequent to assuming office in 1996, support was quickly lost. From 1997, Labor opened a consistent, albeit narrow, lead in the polls and by 1998 Labor was enjoying a commanding lead. The Coalition was eventually disadvantaged by what was commonly deemed to be poor government performance and the rapid rise of One Nation support, which under the state's optional preferential voting, fractured the Conservative vote. The Coalition vote significantly plummeted, whilst Labor essentially withstood the swing to One Nation.

Legislative Assembly opinion polling [8]
Primary vote
DateALPL/NPONPOTH
1998 election38.9%31.3%22.7%7.1%
10–11 Jun 199841.5%33%18.5%7%
29–31 May 199844%34%15%7%
Apr–May 199841%39%10%10%
Jan–Mar 199841%39%5%15%
Oct–Dec 199743%38%19%
Jul–Sep 199740%41%19%
Apr–Jun 199741%41%18%
Jan–Mar 199744%41%15%
Oct–Dec 199641%46%13%
Jul–Sep 199642%49%9%

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "2009 Queensland Election - ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". ABC. 2009-03-21. Retrieved 2012-01-25.
  2. 1 2 "1998 Queensland Election (Current Issues Brief 2 1998-99)". Aph.gov.au. Archived from the original on August 10, 2011. Retrieved 2012-01-25.
  3. ↑ Electoral Commission of Queensland (1998). Queensland Election 1998: Statistical Returns. p. 8. ISBN   0-7242-5023-9.
  4. ↑ Queensland Parliamentary Library (2009). Queensland Parliamentary Record: the 52nd parliament. pp. 114–115. ISSN   1449-2083.
  5. ↑ Green, Antony. Queensland election preview. Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 2012-01-25.
  6. ↑ Wanna, John (December 1998). "Australian Political Chronicle: January–June 1998". Australian Journal of Politics and History. 44 (4): 593. ISSN   0004-9522.
  7. ↑ Hughes, Colin A. (2002). A handbook of Australian government and politics, 1985-1999. Federation Press. p. 329. ISBN   978-1-86287-434-3.
  8. ↑ QLD Newspoll
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