Queensland state election, 2015

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Queensland state election, 2015
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  2012 31 January 2015 2017  →
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority

 First partySecond partyThird party
  Annastacia Palaszczuk 2016.jpg Campbell Newman being interviewed (cropped).jpg
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Campbell Newman Ray Hopper
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since28 March 2012 (2012-03-28)22 March 2011 (2011-03-22)29 November 2012 (2012-11-29)
Leader's seat Inala Ashgrove (lost seat) Condamine;
contested Nanango (lost seat)
Last election7 seats78 seats2 seats
Seats won44 seats42 seats2 seats
Seat changeIncrease2.svg35Decrease2.svg34Steady2.svg
Popular vote983,0541,084,06050,588
Percentage37.47%41.32%1.93%
SwingIncrease2.svg10.81Decrease2.svg8.33Decrease2.svg9.61
TPP 51.1%48.9%n/a
TPP swingIncrease2.svg14.0Decrease2.svg14.0n/a
Queensland state election, 2015.svg
Results by electoral division.
Premier before election

Campbell Newman
Liberal National

Premier after election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The 2015 Queensland state election was held on 31 January 2015 to elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland.

Legislative Assembly of Queensland Chamber of the unicameral Parliament of Queensland

The Legislative Assembly of Queensland is the sole chamber of the unicameral Parliament of Queensland. Elections are held every four years. Voting is by the full-preferential voting form of the alternative vote system. The Assembly has 93 members, who have used the letters MP after their names since 2000.

Contents

The centre-right Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Premier Campbell Newman, attempted to win a second term but was defeated by the opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP), led by Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk. Labor formed a minority government with the support of the lone independent MP in the chamber, Peter Wellington. It is only the seventh change of government in Queensland since 1915, and only the third time since 1932 that a sitting government in the state has failed to win a second term. Furthermore, Annastacia Palaszczuk became the first woman to win government from opposition in a state election (eventual Chief Minister Clare Martin led the Labor Party to victory from opposition in 2001 at an election in a territory).

The Liberal National Party of Queensland (LNP) is a political party in Queensland, Australia. It was formed in 2008 by a merger of the Queensland divisions of the Liberal Party and the National Party. At a federal level and in most other states the two parties remain distinct and operate as a more or less permanent Coalition. The LNP is a full member of the Liberal Party of Australia, and has observer status within the National Party of Australia.

Premier of Queensland head of government for the state of Queensland, Australia

The Premier of Queensland is the head of government in the Australian state of Queensland.

Campbell Newman Australian politician

Campbell Kevin Thomas Newman is a former Australian politician who served as the 38th Premier of Queensland from 26 March 2012 to 14 February 2015. Newman served as the Member for Ashgrove in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland between March 2012 and 31 January 2015. He was the Leader of the Liberal National Party (LNP) from 2 April 2011 to 7 February 2015, and was the 15th Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 27 March 2004 to 3 April 2011.

The previous election saw Labor, which had governed the state for all but two years since 1989, suffer the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh retired from politics and was succeeded as party leader by her former Transport Minister, Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats. Although Labor hoped to regain much of what it lost in its severe defeat of three years earlier, most polls pointed to the LNP being returned for another term with a reduced majority.

A majority government refers to one or multiple governing parties that hold an absolute majority of seats in legislature. This is as opposed to a minority government, where the largest party in a legislature only has a plurality of seats.

Katter's Australian Party (KAP) is a political party in Australia. It was formed by the independent and former Nationals Member of Parliament for Kennedy, Bob Katter, with a registration application lodged to the Australian Electoral Commission in 2011. Katter has been the party's federal parliamentary leader since that time, while his son Robbie is the leader in Queensland.

On election night, the outcome of the election was inconclusive, though most political analysts projected that the LNP had lost its majority after suffering what ended up being a record 14-point two-party swing. [1] Newman was defeated in his seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor, Kate Jones—only the second time since Federation that a sitting Queensland premier has lost their own seat. With the outcome in his own seat beyond doubt, Newman announced his retirement from politics, though remained as caretaker premier pending the final results. According to projections from both ABC News and Brisbane's The Courier-Mail , Labor had taken at least 30 seats from the LNP, and was very close to picking up the 36-seat swing it needed to form government in its own right—a feat initially thought impossible when the writs were issued. On the day after the election, both outlets had Labor either two or three seats short of a majority. [2] [3] Political analysts opined that the balance of power was likely to rest with Katter's Australian Party and independent Wellington.

Political science is a social science which deals with systems of governance, and the analysis of political activities, political thoughts, and political behavior. It deals extensively with the theory and practice of politics which is commonly thought of as determining of the distribution of power and resources. Political scientists "see themselves engaged in revealing the relationships underlying political events and conditions, and from these revelations they attempt to construct general principles about the way the world of politics works."

Two-party-preferred vote

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 45%, Labor 55%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

Electoral district of Ashgrove state electoral district of Queensland, Australia

Ashgrove was a Legislative Assembly of Queensland electoral division in the state of Queensland, Australia from 1960 to 2017.

Wellington announced on 5 February he would support a Palaszczuk-led Labor minority government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to vote on conscience. [4] On 13 February, the Electoral Commission of Queensland declared the results of the election. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority, putting Labor in a position to form a minority government in the hung parliament. [5] [6] [7] Even allowing for the LNP's previously overwhelming majority, the 37-seat swing is the second-largest shift of seats against a sitting government in Queensland since Federation, only exceeded by the 44-seat shift against Labor in 2012. Conversely, the two-party swing of 13.7 points in 2012 was exceeded by the 2015 two-party swing of 14.0 points.

In a parliamentary democracy based on the Westminster system, confidence and supply are required for a minority government to retain power in the lower house.

A conscience vote or free vote is a type of vote in a legislative body where legislators are allowed to vote according to their own personal conscience rather than according to an official line set down by their political party. In a parliamentary system, especially within the Westminster system, it can also be used to indicate crossbench members of a hung parliament where confidence and supply is provided to allow formation of a minority government but the right to vote on conscience is retained. Free votes are found in Canadian and some British legislative bodies; conscience votes are used in Australian and New Zealand legislative bodies.

Electoral Commission of Queensland

The Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ) is established under the Electoral Act 1992 as an independent statutory authority, responsible for the impartial conduct of state and local government elections in Queensland.

Palaszczuk approached Governor Paul de Jersey on 11 February and advised him that she could form a minority government. [8] [9] Palaszczuk and de Jersey met again on 13 February. At that meeting, de Jersey formally invited Palaszczuk to form a government, an invitation that Palaszczuk accepted. On 14 February, Palaszczuk was sworn in as the 39th Premier of Queensland. [10]

Governor of Queensland

The Governor of Queensland is the representative in the state of Queensland of the Queen of Australia. In an analogous way to the Governor-General of Australia at the national level, the Governor performs constitutional and ceremonial functions at the state level. In particular the governor has the power to appoint and dismiss the Premier of Queensland and all other ministers in the cabinet, and issue writs for the election of the state parliament.

Paul de Jersey Australian judge, Governor of Queensland

Paul de Jersey, is an Australian jurist who is the current Governor of Queensland. From 1998 to 2014, he was Chief Justice of Queensland.

Results

The composition of the Legislative Assembly following the election. Queensland Legislative Assembly 2015.svg
The composition of the Legislative Assembly following the election.

Queensland state election, 31 January 2015
Legislative Assembly
<< 2012–2017 >>

Enrolled voters2,981,145
Votes cast2,679,874 Turnout 89.89−1.11
Informal votes56,431Informal2.11−0.05
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes%SwingSeatsChange
  Liberal National 1,084,06041.32–8.3342–34
  Labor 983,05437.47+10.8144+35
  Greens 221,1578.43+0.900±0
  Palmer United 133,9295.11+5.110±0
  Katter's Australian 50,5881.93–9.612±0
  Family First 31,2311.19–0.170±0
  One Nation 24,1110.92+0.820±0
  Independent 95,3133.63+0.471−1
Total2,623,443  89 
Two-party-preferred
  Labor 51.1+14.0
  Liberal National 48.9−14.0
* The statewide two-party preferred summary is an estimate calculated by Antony Green.

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election [11]
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Algester  Liberal National Anthony Shorten 9.1−16.17.0 Leeanne Enoch Labor 
Ashgrove  Liberal National Campbell Newman 5.7−9.94.3 Kate Jones Labor 
Barron River Liberal National Michael Trout 9.5−12.63.1 Craig Crawford Labor
Brisbane Central  Liberal National Robert Cavallucci 4.9−8.13.3 Grace Grace Labor 
Bulimba  Liberal National Aaron Dillaway 0.1−6.26.1 Di Farmer Labor 
Bundaberg  Liberal National Jack Dempsey 18.2−19.81.6 Leanne Donaldson Labor 
Cairns  Liberal National Gavin King 8.9−17.38.5 Rob Pyne Labor 
Capalaba  Liberal National Steve Davies 3.7−10.87.1 Don Brown Labor 
Cook  Liberal National David Kempton 3.4−10.26.8 Billy Gordon Labor 
Ferny Grove  Liberal National Dale Shuttleworth 9.5−10.30.8 Mark Furner Labor 
Gaven  Independent Alex Douglas N/A1−17.12.0 Sid Cramp Liberal National 
Gladstone  Independent Liz Cunningham 14.0−25.911.9 Glenn Butcher Labor 
Greenslopes  Liberal National Ian Kaye 2.5−6.74.3 Joe Kelly Labor 
Ipswich  Liberal National Ian Berry 4.2−20.115.9 Jennifer Howard Labor 
Ipswich West  Liberal National Sean Choat 7.2−14.97.7 Jim Madden Labor 
Kallangur  Liberal National Trevor Ruthenberg 12.4−18.66.1 Shane King Labor 
Keppel  Liberal National Bruce Young 6.4−11.24.8 Brittany Lauga Labor 
Logan  Liberal National Michael Pucci 4.8−15.610.8 Linus Power Labor 
Lytton  Liberal National Neil Symes 1.6−11.49.8 Joan Pease Labor 
Maryborough  Liberal National Anne Maddern 19.2−20.91.7 Bruce Saunders Labor 
Mirani  Liberal National Ted Malone 11.2−16.04.8 Jim Pearce Labor 
Morayfield  Liberal National Darren Grimwade 5.6−17.511.9 Mark Ryan Labor 
Mount Coot-tha  Liberal National Saxon Rice 5.4−7.92.6 Steven Miles Labor 
Mundingburra  Liberal National David Crisafulli 10.2−13.02.8 Coralee O'Rourke Labor 
Murrumba  Liberal National Reg Gulley 9.5−16.97.4 Chris Whiting Labor 
Nudgee  Liberal National Jason Woodforth 3.1−14.411.3 Leanne Linard Labor 
Pine Rivers  Liberal National Seath Holswich 13.7−21.37.7 Nikki Boyd Labor 
Pumicestone  Liberal National Lisa France 12.1−14.22.1 Rick Williams Labor 
Sandgate  Liberal National Kerry Millard 2.9−13.010.1 Stirling Hinchliffe Labor 
Springwood  Liberal National John Grant 15.4−17.11.7 Mick de Brenni Labor 
Stretton  Liberal National Freya Ostapovitch 9.6−14.55.0 Duncan Pegg Labor 
Sunnybank  Liberal National Mark Stewart 10.2−17.47.2 Peter Russo Labor 
Thuringowa  Liberal National Sam Cox 1.4−6.95.5 Aaron Harper Labor 
Townsville  Liberal National John Hathaway 4.8−10.55.7 Scott Stewart Labor 
Waterford  Liberal National Mike Latter 1.0−14.413.3 Shannon Fentiman Labor 
Yeerongpilly  Independent Carl Judge N/A2−14.713.3 Mark Bailey Labor 
Members whose names are in italics retired at the election.
1 Alex Douglas won the seat of Gaven in 2012 as a LNP member, but quit in November 2012 to sit as an independent. He sat as a PUP member between June 2013 and August 2014.
2 Carl Judge won the seat of Yeerongpilly in 2012 as a LNP member, but quit in November 2012 to sit as an independent. He sat as PUP member between April 2013 and October 2014.

Labor regained power mainly on the strength of recovering much of what it had lost in Brisbane at the 2012 election. Brisbane had been Labor's power base for more than a quarter-century; Labor had gone into the 2012 election holding 36 of the capital's 40 seats, losing all but three at the election. In 2015, however, Labor won 28 seats in Brisbane. The LNP was still in a position to hope for a minority government primarily by sweeping the Gold Coast, albeit in most cases by somewhat smaller margins than in 2012.

Although Queensland is Australia's least centralised state, since the abolition of the Bjelkemander it has been extremely difficult to form even a minority government without a strong base in Brisbane. The 2015 election underscored this. None of the LNP's safe seats (greater than 10 percent 2PP) were located in Brisbane. The LNP's safest seat, Moggill, only had a majority of 8.2 percent, putting it on the strong side of fairly safe. In contrast, all but two of Labor's safe seats were in the capital.

Following the election, the Palmer United Party candidate for Ferny Grove, Mark Taverner, was revealed to be an undischarged bankrupt and was therefore ineligible to run. The revelation spurred speculation that there may need to be a by-election to resolve the seat. [12] The Electoral Commission of Queensland initially released a statement on 8 February saying that it would declare the seat, and then refer the issue to the Supreme Court of Queensland sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns. The statement raised a by-election as a possible outcome. [13]

Lawrence Springborg, who succeeded Newman as LNP leader on 7 February, called for the caretaker government to continue until after a possible Ferny Grove by-election is held, citing both the uncertainty of a hung parliament and doubt over the status of Ferny Grove. [14] Conversely, ABC election analyst Antony Green believed that the Ferny Grove outcome and possible by-election would not affect who forms government. [15] Professor Graeme Orr, an electoral law expert at University of Queensland, labelled the prospect of the LNP maintaining a caretaker government until a possible by-election analogous to a "constitutional coup". Orr also reasoned that the law and facts were against a Ferny Grove by-election. [16] The Electoral Commission of Queensland declared Ferny Grove had been won by the Labor candidate Mark Furner over LNP incumbent Dale Shuttlesworth on 11 February, signalling that it would soon refer the matter to the Court of Disputed Returns. [17] Green analysed the Ferny Grove tally and concluded that Taverner did not have an effect on the outcome of the election. Specifically, Green concluded that at most, 353 of Taverner's ballot papers had exhausted. However, Furner would have still won even if all of those votes had gone to Shuttlesworth had Taverner not been on the ballot. To Green's mind, this made it extremely difficult to argue that exhausted preferences alone would be enough to demand a by-election in Ferny Grove. [18]

On 13 February the Electoral Commission of Queensland stated that, based on legal advice, they would not be referring the Ferny Grove result to the Court of Disputed Returns. This formally cleared the way for a Labor minority government, and Governor Paul de Jersey invited Palaszczuk to form a government later that day. The LNP stated they were considering their legal options, with Springborg later releasing a statement where he "congratulate[d] incoming Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and her government". [19] [20] On 16 February the LNP announced it would not be challenging the Ferny Grove result. [21]

The disproportionality of the Queensland parliament in the 2015 election was 11.91 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly between Labor and The Greens. 2015 Election Queensland Gallagher Index.png
The disproportionality of the Queensland parliament in the 2015 election was 11.91 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly between Labor and The Greens.

Voting method

Queensland used an optional preferential version of the instant-runoff system in single-member electorates, in 2016 compulsory preferential voting was readopted. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament. In Queensland, a parliamentary term was for a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs, as a result of the 2016 referendum in future Queensland will have fixed four year terms. The previous state election was held on 24 March 2012.

Date

Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs including the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence. [22]

The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly expires. [23] The day set for the return of writs for the 2012 election was 23 April 2012. [24] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election no more than four days after the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires. [22] :§78(2) The last possible day for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 23 April 2015, namely, 20 June 2015.

Under current election rules, the date of the election is at the discretion of the Governor under advice from the Premier, although the leaders of the two largest parties support in principle a change to fixed four-year terms. [25]

On 5 January 2015, media organisations reported that Newman intended to announce the election date the next day. [26] [27] On 6 January, Newman confirmed on Twitter that he had visited acting governor Tim Carmody and writs had been issued for an election on 31 January. [28] [29] This was the first time in over a century that an Australian general election was held in January. The last January election was held in Tasmania in 1913 and the last on the mainland was the New South Wales colonial election of 1874–75. [30]

The election was held on the same day as the 2015 Davenport state by-election in South Australia.

Key dates

DateEvent
6 January 2015 Writ of election issued by the acting Governor [31]
10 January 2015Close of electoral rolls
13 January 2015Close of nominations
31 January 2015Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
10 February 2015Cut off for the return of postal ballot papers
13 February 2015Election results declared, Annastacia Palaszczuk is asked to form government
14 February 2015Interim Palaszczuk Ministry is sworn in
16 February 2015Full Palaszczuk Ministry sworn in
16 February 2015Writ returned and results formally declared
24 March 201555th Parliament convened

Contesting parties

Besides the ALP and LNP, the election was contested by The Greens, Family First, Katter's Australian Party, One Nation and the Palmer United Party. [32]

Last election

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland state election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the 2012 election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Labor was defeated in an historic landslide, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning of Ashgrove from the former Environment Minister, Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections have occurred since the last state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July. Jackie Trad held Bligh's former seat of South Brisbane of Labor in an April 2012 by-election, following Bligh's resignation from parliament.

Pre-election pendulum

Following the 2012 election, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents (Carl Judge in the electorate of Yeerongpilly and Dr Alex Douglas in the electorate of Gaven), resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and four independent seats. By-elections in Redcliffe and Stafford saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats.

Retiring MPs

Members who were deselected or who chose not to renominate were as follows:

Labor

LNP

Independent

Polling

QLD Primary Voting 2012-2015.png
Primary-vote polling from the 2012 election until late 2014
Queensland TPP Polling 2012-2015.png
Two-party-preferred polling summary from the 2012 election until early 2015.
Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
LNPALPGRNPUPKAPOTHLNPALP
29 Jan 2015Essential [43] 39%38%7%5%2%9%50%50%
29 Jan 2015Newspoll [44] 41%37%6%3%2%11%52%48%
20 Jan 2015ReachTEL [45] 42%36.7%8.4%5.2%—7.6%52%48%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [46] 39.5%37%10%4%3.5%6%50.5%49.5%
7–8 Jan 2015 Galaxy [47] 41%38%8%3%3%7%52%48%
6–8 Jan 2015Newspoll [48] 42%37%7%1%1%12%53%47%
6 Jan 2015ReachTEL [49] 40.3%38.1%7.6%6.3%—7.7%50%50%
28 Nov 2014ReachTEL [49] 39.2%37.3%7.9%6.5%—9.1%49%51%
21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [50] 39%36.5%9.5%4%3.5%7.5%50.5%49.5%
18–19 Nov 2014Galaxy [47] 37%38%9%7%3%6%50%50%
Oct–Dec 2014 Newspoll 37%36%10%—1%*16%50%50%
24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan [51] 38.5%38%10%6%2%5.5%49.5%50.5%
9 Oct 2014ReachTEL [49] 40.9%36.6%7.6%7.2%—7.7%51%49%
26–29 Sept 2014Roy Morgan [52] 42%35.5%9%6.5%2.5%4.5%51%49%
4 Sept 2014ReachTEL [49] 41.2%36%6%9.5%—7.2%51%49%
12–14 Aug 2014Galaxy [47] 39%36%7%12%3%3%52%48%
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll39%32%10%—1%*18%54%46%
7 Aug 2014ReachTEL [49] 41%34.4%5.5%12.6%—6.5%52%48%
3 Jul 2014ReachTEL [49] 38.7%34.4%6.1%15.4%—5.4%51%49%
5 Jun 2014ReachTEL [49] 40.9%34.1%5.2%13.6%—6.3%53%47%
21–22 May 2014Galaxy [53] 43%34%8%—5%10%55%45%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll32%34%8%—2%*24%49%51%
2 Apr 2014ReachTEL [54] 39.1%35.1%7.3%8.0%3.3%3.0%——
Jan–Mar 2014Newspoll40%36%8%—1%*15%52%48%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll40%32%8%—2%*18%55%45%
10 Jul 2013ReachTEL [55] 43.3%37.0%5.1%4.5%5.7%4.4%——
23 May 2013ReachTEL [56] 44.6%28.2%9.0%†10.4%7.8%——
Apr–Jun 2013Newspoll44%29%10%†3%*14%59%41%
19 Apr 2013ReachTEL [57] 45.1%29.2%7.7%†12.7%5.4%——
23 Mar – 2 Apr 2013ReachTEL [58] 45.8%30.4%8.2%†9.9%5.6%——
20 Mar 2013ReachTEL [59] 47.8%30.2%8.0%†10.1%3.9%——
22 Feb 2013ReachTEL [60] 47.1%28.9%7.9%†11.5%4.5%——
Jan–Mar 2013Newspoll49%27%6%†3%*15%62%38%
18 Jan 2013ReachTEL [61] 42.5%34.9%8.4%†10.5%3.6%——
14 Dec 2012ReachTEL [62] 41.9%32.1%8.2%†12.1%5.7%——
23 Nov 2012ReachTEL [63] 42%34.2%9.5%†8.9%5.4%——
Oct–Dec 2012Newspoll42%31%8%†4%*15%56%44%
12 Oct 2012ReachTEL [64] 44.6%30.5%7.5%†11%6.4%——
14 Sept 2012ReachTEL [65] 44.7%34.7%7%†9.4%4.1%——
17 Aug 2012ReachTEL [66] 44.2%31.6%9.2%†9.6%5.4%——
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Roy Morgan [67] 51%27.5%7.5%†5%9%59%41%
2 Jul 2012ReachTEL [65] [68] 56.5%21.8%9.4%†7.4%4.8%——
Jul–Sep 2012Newspoll48%30%9%†1%*12%60%40%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012Roy Morgan [69] 54.5%28%7.5%†3.5%6.5%62%38%
28 March 2012 Annastacia Palaszczuk becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
24 Mar 2012 election 49.7%26.7%7.5%†11.5%4.6%62.8%37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012Newspoll50%28%6%†‡16%60.8%39.2%
20–21 Mar 2012Roy Morgan [70] 51%28%7.5%†8.5%5%62%38%
* KAP is not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others".
† Palmer United Party announced in April 2013 [71] and registered in June 2013, [72] as such, there is no polling data before this point.
‡ KAP part of others prior to election. **On the final Newpoll (29/01/2015), PUP is included with the others total (14%), but a provided footnote shows them to have support of 3% of voters.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierNewmanPalaszczuk
NewmanPalaszczukSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
27–29 Jan 2015 Newspoll [44] 43%42%35%58%38%40%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [46] 48.5%51.5%not asked
6–8 Jan 2015 Newspoll [48] 42%38%41%51%38%38%
21–24 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [50] 47.5%52.5%not asked
Oct–Dec 2014Newspoll44%35%38%51%38%34%
24–27 Oct 2014Roy Morgan [51] 47.5%52.5%not asked
26–29 Sept 2014Roy Morgan [52] 50%50%not asked
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll41%35%35%54%36%36%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll39%35%33%57%35%37%
Jan–Mar 2014Newspoll41%35%36%54%38%30%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll45%32%40%48%36%31%
Apr–Jun 2013Newspoll49%26%41%46%34%33%
Jan–Mar 2013Newspoll53%21%43%45%33%33%
Oct–Dec 2012Newspoll45%29%38%48%34%30%
10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012Roy Morgan [67] 62.5%20.5%51%36%33%28.5%
Jul–Sep 2012Newspoll55%21%47%38%29%30%
5/6 & 12/13 June 2012Roy Morgan [69] 67.5%16%53%26.5%26.5%21%
28 March 2012 Palaszczuk replaces BlighNewman Bligh NewmanBligh
24 Mar 2012 election ––––––
20–22 Mar 2012Newspoll51%36%47%40%36%58%
20–21 Mar 2012Roy Morgan [70] 48%35%53%34.5%38.5%53.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "New premier tipped for Queensland". SBS World News . Australia. AAP. 30 January 2015. Retrieved 2 February 2015.
  2. ↑ Agius, Kym (31 January 2015). "Queensland election 2015: Campbell Newman concedes Ashgrove to ALP's Kate Jones". ABC News . Australia. Retrieved 1 February 2015.
  3. ↑ Wardill, Steven; Tin, Jason (1 February 2015). "Queensland election 2015: Annastacia Palaszczuk's Labor on brink of victory". The Sunday Mail . Retrieved 1 February 2015.
  4. ↑ Remeikis, Amy (5 February 2015). "Queensland Election: Peter Wellington supports Labor to govern". Brisbane Times . Retrieved 6 February 2015.
  5. ↑ "Live Results - Queensland Election 2015". Australian Broadcasting Corporation . Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  6. ↑ Kimmorley, Sarah (8 February 2015). "The ALP is close to forming government in Queensland". Business Insider Australia. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  7. ↑ "Queensland election 2015: Annastacia Palaszczuk invited to form government, interim ministry to be sworn in Saturday". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 13 February 2015. Retrieved 14 February 2015.
  8. ↑ Withey, Andree; Agius, Kym (9 February 2015). "Queensland election 2015: Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk to seek Governor's permission to form government". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation . Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  9. ↑ "Queensland election 2015: Labor secures 44 seats, enough to form minority government". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 13 February 2015. Retrieved 19 February 2015.
  10. ↑ "Queensland election 2015: Annastacia Palaszczuk sworn in as Premier". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 14 February 2015. Retrieved 14 February 2015.
  11. ↑ Seats changing hands, 2015 QLD election: Antony Green ABC
  12. ↑ "Queensland election 2015: Ferny Grove by-election 'likely' after PUP candidate bankruptcy revelation, LNP president Bruce McIver says". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 4 February 2015. Retrieved 8 February 2015.
  13. ↑ "Electoral commission will ask court to decide on Ferny Grove byelection". The Guardian Australia . Australian Associated Press. 8 February 2015. Retrieved 8 February 2015.
  14. ↑ Bochenski, Natalie (8 February 2015). "Election result should wait on Ferny Grove: Springborg". Brisbane Times . Retrieved 8 February 2015.
  15. ↑ Green, Antony (5 February 2015). "The Impact of Ferny Grove on Forming Government in Queensland". Antony Green's Election Blog. Australian Broadcasting Corporation . Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  16. ↑ Orr, Graeme. "The Caretaker's Number is Up" . Retrieved 11 February 2015.
  17. ↑ Robertson, Joshua (11 February 2015). "Queensland Labor one step closer to taking office, but court appeal looms". The Guardian Australia . Retrieved 11 February 2015.
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  19. ↑ Brennan, Rose; Wardill, Steven (13 February 2015). "Electoral commission declares final seats in Queensland election". The Courier-Mail . Retrieved 14 February 2015.
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  26. ↑ "Queensland Premier expected to call snap election". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 5 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
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  30. ↑ Owens, Jared (7 January 2015). "Queensland election: January call defies holiday wisdom". The Australian . Retrieved 7 January 2015.
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  32. ↑ Atfield, Cameron (7 January 2015). "Queensland election: Minor parties line up". Brisbane Times . Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  33. ↑ "Deputy ALP leader Tim Mulherin resigns on day four of the campaign". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 9 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  34. ↑ Remeikis, Amy (11 March 2014). "Cameron Dick's plan to return puts Labor leadership in the spotlight". Brisbane Times . Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  35. ↑ Remeikis, Amy (25 October 2014). "'Sexting' MP Peter Dowling shattered as LNP members vote 'no'". Brisbane Times . Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  36. ↑ "Queensland MP Bruce Flegg defeated in preselection battle for Moggill". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 8 December 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  37. ↑ Atfield, Cameron (3 May 2014). "Queensland MP David Gibson to quit politics". Brisbane Times . Retrieved 25 January 2015.
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  39. ↑ "Retirement of Vaughan Johnson MP". Liberal National Party . Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  40. ↑ "Ted Malone won't run for Mirani seat again". Daily Mercury . 26 September 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  41. ↑ "Retirement of Rosemary Menkens MP". Liberal National Party . Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  42. ↑ "Gladstone MP confirms she won't run in 2015 election". The Observer . 6 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  43. ↑ "7 The Essential Report - Queensland State Election" (PDF). news.com.au. 29 January 2015. Retrieved 29 January 2015.
  44. 1 2 http://polling.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/150124%20QLD%20Election%20-%20Final.pdf
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  46. 1 2 "Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW". Roy Morgan Research . 22 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
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  50. 1 2 "Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call. Palmer United Party loses support in every State". Roy Morgan Research . 26 November 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  51. 1 2 "Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call". Roy Morgan Research . 28 October 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  52. 1 2 "ALP in 'Box Seat' for Victorian State Election. Coalition still ahead in NSW & Queensland". Roy Morgan Research . 1 October 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
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  55. ↑ "Queensland poll - July 2013". ReachTEL. 11 July 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  56. ↑ "7 News - Queensland poll - May 2013". ReachTEL. 26 May 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
  57. ↑ "Do Queenslanders give a Gonski?". ReachTEL. 24 April 2013. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
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  69. 1 2 "MORGAN POLL STATE VOTING INTENTION L-NP LEADS IN AUSTRALIA'S BIGGEST STATES: NSW: L-NP (61%) CF. ALP (39%); VICTORIA: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%) & QUEENSLAND: LNP (62%) CF. ALP (38%)". Roy Morgan Research . 16 June 2012. Retrieved 11 January 2015.
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