Queensland state election, 2012

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Queensland state election, 2012

Flag of Queensland.svg


  2009 24 March 2012 (2012-03-24) 2015  

All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority

 First partySecond partyThird party
  Campbell Newman being interviewed (cropped).jpg Anna Bligh crop.jpg Robbie Katter headshot.png
Leader Campbell Newman Anna Bligh Robbie Katter
Party Liberal National Labor Katter's Australian
Leader since22 March 2011 (2011-03-22)13 September 2007 (2007-09-13)27 September 2011 (2011-09-27)
Leader's seat Ashgrove
(won seat)
South Brisbane Mount Isa
(won seat)
Last election34 seats51 seats0 seats
Seats won78 seats7 seats2 seats
Seat changeIncrease2.svg44Decrease2.svg44Increase2.svg 2
Popular vote1,214,553652,092282,098
Percentage49.7%26.7%11.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg8.1Decrease2.svg15.6Increase2.svg11.5
TPP 62.8%37.2%n/a
TPP swingIncrease2.svg13.7Decrease2.svg13.7n/a

Queensland state election, 2012.svg

Results by electoral division.

Premier before election

Anna Bligh
Labor

Elected Premier

Campbell Newman
Liberal National

The 2012 Queensland state election was held on 24 March 2012 to elect all 89 members of the Legislative Assembly, a unicameral parliament. [1]

Legislative Assembly of Queensland Chamber of the unicameral Parliament of Queensland

The Legislative Assembly of Queensland is the sole chamber of the unicameral Parliament of Queensland. Elections are held every four years. Voting is by the full-preferential voting form of the alternative vote system. The Assembly has 93 members, who have used the letters MP after their names since 2000.

Contents

The Labor Party (ALP), led by Premier Anna Bligh, was defeated by the opposition Liberal National Party (LNP), led by Campbell Newman. It is only the sixth time that Queenslanders have ousted a sitting government since 1915. The ALP was attempting to win a ninth consecutive election victory, having won every general election since 1989 although it was out of office between 1996 and 1998. Katter's Australian Party contested its first election. Before the election, it held two seats whose members had been elected as LNP candidates.

Australian Labor Party (Queensland Branch) State branch of the Australian Labor Party

The Australian Labor Party , commonly known as Queensland Labor is the Queensland branch of the Australian Labor Party.

Premier of Queensland head of government for the state of Queensland, Australia

The Premier of Queensland is the head of government in the Australian state of Queensland.

Anna Bligh Australian politician

Anna Maria Bligh is a former Australian politician who served as the 37th Premier of Queensland, in office from 2007 to 2012 as leader of the Labor Party. She was the first woman to hold either position.

Labor suffered one of the worst defeats of a state government since Federation, and the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. From 51 seats in 2009, it was reduced to only seven seats, suffering a swing of 15.6 percentage points. The LNP won a majority for the first time in its history, jumping from 34 seats to 78 seats to win the largest majority government in Queensland history. It was the first outright non-Labor majority since the Queensland Nationals won their last victory in 1986. Katter's Australian Party won two seats, though leader Aidan McLindon lost his own seat. The remaining two seats were taken by independents. Newman took office two days after the election.

The National Party, known as the Country Party until 1974, was a political party in Queensland, Australia, for much of the period from 1915 until 2008. Formed by the Queensland Farmers' Union and serving as the state branch of the National Party of Australia, it initially sought to represent the interests of the farmers but over time became a more general conservative political party in the state, leading to much debate about relations with other conservative parties and a string of mergers that were soon undone. From 1957 it held power as part of a coalition with the state Liberal Party until 1983 when the Liberals broke away and the Nationals continued to govern in their own right until defeat in 1989. The party formed another coalition with the Liberals that took power in 1996 but was defeated in 1998. After a further decade in opposition the two parties merged to form the Liberal National Party of Queensland.

Results

The Gallagher Index result: 31.16 2012 Election Queensland Gallagher Index.png
The Gallagher Index result: 31.16

Queensland state election, 24 March 2012
Legislative Assembly
<< 20092015 >>

Enrolled voters2,746,844
Votes cast2,499,612 Turnout 91.00+0.07
Informal votes53,797Informal2.15+0.21
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes%SwingSeatsChange
  Liberal National 1,214,55349.66+8.0678+44
  Labor 652,09226.66–15.597–44
  Katter's Australian Party 282,09811.53+11.532+2
  Greens 184,1477.53–0.840±0
  Family First 33,2691.36+0.540±0
  One Nation 2,5250.10–0.280±0
  Independent 77,2823.16–3.422–2
Total2,445,966  89 
Two-party-preferred
  Liberal National 62.8+13.7
  Labor 37.2−13.7
* The two-party preferred summary is an estimate by Antony Green using a methodology by Malcolm Mackerras.

The estimated two-party preferred result was 37.2% for Labor and 62.8% for the LNP, a swing of 13.7% from Labor's result of 2009. [2]

The LNP had been unbackable favourites to win the election. By the time the writs were dropped, they had led opinion polling for over a year, and had been ahead of Labor on all but one Newspoll since 2010.

The LNP swept Labor from power in a massive landslide, taking 78 seats to Labor's seven on a two-party-preferred swing of 13.7 points away from Labor. The 44-seat loss is double the 22-seat loss suffered by the Nationals in the 1989 election, the previous record for the worst defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. The 13.7-percent swing is one of the largest against a sitting state government in Australia since World War II.

In the process, the LNP won many seats considered Labor heartland. It broke Labor's longstanding grip on Brisbane, taking all but three of the city's 40 seats, some on swings of 10 points or more. By comparison, Labor went into the election holding all but six seats in the capital, which had been its power base for over 20 years. In every election since the "one vote one value" reforms of the Goss government, Labor had won at least 30 seats in Brisbane. The LNP also won every seat on the Gold Coast while strengthening its hold on its traditional heartlands in provincial and rural Queensland. Ten members of Bligh's cabinet were defeated. Newman won Ashgrove handily, defeating Labor's Kate Jones on a 13-point swing, almost double the 7-point swing he needed to take the seat off Labor.

Wayne Goss Australian politician; Premier of Queensland (1989–1996)

Wayne Keith Goss was Premier of Queensland, Australia, from 7 December 1989 until 19 February 1996, becoming the first Labor Premier in over 32 years. Prior to entering politics, Goss was a solicitor, and after leaving politics he served as Chairman of the Queensland Art Gallery and Chairman of Deloitte Australia.

Gold Coast, Queensland City in Queensland, Australia

The Gold Coast is a coastal city in the Australian state of Queensland, approximately 66 kilometres (41 mi) south-southeast of the state capital Brisbane and immediately north of the border with New South Wales. With a census-estimated 2016 population of 638,090, the Gold Coast is the sixth-largest city in Australia, making it the largest non-capital city, and Queensland's second-largest city.

Kate Jennifer Jones is an Australian politician and Queensland Government minister. She is a member of the Labor Party and was elected to the seat of Ashgrove in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland in 2006, which was previously held by former Speaker Jim Fouras (ALP). She was the Minister for Environment, Resource Management and Climate Change until 19 June 2011. She lost the seat to Campbell Newman in 2012, who went on to become premier, before retaking it in 2015. The seat was abolished prior to the 2017 election, so Jones contested and won the new seat of Cooper. In the Palaszczuk Government, she is the Minister for Innovation and Tourism Industry Development and the Minister for the Commonwealth Games.

ABC News called the election for the LNP at 6:48 pm Queensland time, less than an hour after counting began. Bligh conceded defeat at 8:25 pm, and Newman publicly claimed victory 20 minutes later. [3]

The day after the election, Bligh resigned as premier and Queensland Labor leader. She also announced she was resigning from parliament on 30 March and retiring from politics, triggering a by-election in her seat of South Brisbane. [4] [5] An hour later, Newman, who at the time did not know that Bligh had resigned, announced that he would be sworn in as premier on 26 March, heading an interim three-man cabinet composed of himself, Seeney and Tim Nicholls. Although Newman's victory was beyond doubt, counting was still under way in some seats. [6] Bligh handed in her resignation later on the afternoon of 25 March, but remained as caretaker until Newman was sworn in the next day.

Labor was reduced to its smallest presence in the legislature on record, outdoing its previous low in 1974, when it was cut down to a "cricket team" of only 11 members at the height of Joh Bjelke-Petersen's power. Indeed, Michael Madigan of The Courier-Mail wrote that Labor had been reduced to a "water polo squad." [7]

Although Labor came up two seats short of official party status in the legislature, Newman promised that Labor would be "properly resourced as an opposition". [8]

Summary of Assembly results

Popular vote
Liberal National
49.66%
Labor
26.66%
Katter's Australia Party
11.53%
Independent
3.16%
Others
8.99%
% of the seats won
Liberal National
87.64%
Labor
7.86%
Katter's Australia Party
2.25%
Independent
2.25%

Seats changing hands

Labor lost 44 seats, all but one to the LNP. Katter's Australia Party took the other, but lost its leader's seat to the LNP, which also gained three seats formerly held by independents.

SeatPre-2012SwingPost-2012
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Albert  Labor Margaret Keech 6.5–18.411.9 Mark Boothman Liberal National 
Algester  Labor Karen Struthers 9.2–18.49.2 Anthony Shorten Liberal National 
Ashgrove  Labor Kate Jones 7.1–12.85.7 Campbell Newman Liberal National 
Barron River  Labor Steve Wettenhall 2.2–11.79.5 Michael Trout Liberal National 
Beaudesert  Australian Aidan McLindon N/A1–2.310.6 Jon Krause Liberal National 
Brisbane Central  Labor Grace Grace 6.0–10.84.9 Robert Cavallucci Liberal National 
Broadwater  Labor Peta-Kaye Croft 2.0–13.311.3 Verity Barton Liberal National 
Bulimba  Labor Di Farmer 7.8–7.90.1 Aaron Dillaway Liberal National 
Burleigh  Labor Christine Smith 4.9–16.011.1 Michael Hart Liberal National 
Burnett  Independent Rob Messenger N/A22.38.8 Stephen Bennett Liberal National 
Cairns  Labor Desley Boyle 4.2–13.18.9 Gavin King Liberal National 
Capalaba  Labor Michael Choi 9.7–13.43.7 Steve Davies Liberal National 
Chatsworth  Labor Steve Kilburn 0.1–14.013.9 Steve Minnikin Liberal National 
Cook  Labor Jason O'Brien 2.2–5.63.4 David Kempton Liberal National 
Everton  Labor Murray Watt 1.4–14.613.2 Tim Mander Liberal National 
Ferny Grove  Labor Geoff Wilson 4.5–14.09.5 Dale Shuttleworth Liberal National 
Greenslopes  Labor Cameron Dick 6.9–9.42.5 Ian Kaye Liberal National 
Ipswich  Labor Rachel Nolan 16.7–20.94.2 Ian Berry Liberal National 
Ipswich West  Labor Wayne Wendt 9.5–16.87.2 Sean Choat Liberal National 
Kallangur  Labor Mary-Anne O'Neill 4.6–17.112.4 Trevor Ruthenberg Liberal National 
Keppel  Labor Paul Hoolihan 7.6–14.06.4 Bruce Young Liberal National 
Logan  Labor John Mickel 13.9–18.74.8 Michael Pucci Liberal National 
Lytton  Labor Paul Lucas 12.2–13.81.6 Neil Symes Liberal National 
Mansfield  Labor Phil Reeves 4.4–15.611.3 Ian Walker Liberal National 
Maryborough  Independent Chris Foley 16.8–17.20.4 Anne Maddern Liberal National 
Morayfield  Labor Mark Ryan 9.1–14.75.6 Darren Grimwade Liberal National 
Mount Coot-tha  Labor Andrew Fraser 5.2–10.65.4 Saxon Rice Liberal National 
Mount Ommaney  Labor Julie Attwood 4.8–21.316.5 Tarnya Smith Liberal National 
Mount Isa  Labor Betty Kiernan 5.7N/A10.0 Robbie Katter Australian 
Mundingburra  Labor Lindy Nelson-Carr 6.6–16.810.2 David Crisafulli Liberal National 
Murrumba  Labor Dean Wells 7.2–16.79.5 Reg Gulley Liberal National 
Nanango  Independent Dorothy Pratt 2.910.39.0 Deb Frecklington Liberal National 
Nudgee  Labor Neil Roberts 14.3–17.43.1 Jason Woodforth Liberal National 
Pine Rivers  Labor Carolyn Male 4.6–18.313.7 Seath Holswich Liberal National 
Pumicestone  Labor Carryn Sullivan 5.0–17.112.1 Lisa France Liberal National 
Redcliffe  Labor Lillian van Litsenburg 5.6–15.710.1 Scott Driscoll Liberal National 
Sandgate  Labor Vicky Darling 12.4–15.32.9 Kerry Millard Liberal National 
Southport  Labor Peter Lawlor 3.5–18.214.7 Rob Molhoek Liberal National 
Springwood  Labor Barbara Stone 4.1–19.315.2 John Grant Liberal National 
Stafford  Labor Stirling Hinchliffe 7.3–14.47.1 Chris Davis Liberal National 
Stretton  Labor Stephen Robertson 9.5−19.19.6 Freya Ostapovitch Liberal National 
Sunnybank  Labor Judy Spence 10.8−21.010.2 Mark Stewart Liberal National 
Thuringowa  Labor Craig Wallace 8.5−9.91.4 Sam Cox Liberal National 
Toowoomba North  Labor Kerry Shine 3.2–12.89.6 Trevor Watts Liberal National 
Townsville  Labor Mandy Johnstone 4.0−8.94.8 John Hathaway Liberal National 
Waterford  Labor Evan Moorhead 16.5−17.51.0 Mike Latter Liberal National 
Whitsunday  Labor Jan Jarratt 3.2−13.910.7 Jason Costigan Liberal National 
Yeerongpilly  Labor Simon Finn 8.7−10.11.4 Carl Judge Liberal National 

Candidates in italics did not contest their seat at this election.

1 Aidan McLindon was elected as a member of the LNP in 2009, but he quit the party to form the Queensland Party in 2010, then merged his party with Katter's Australian Party in 2011.
2 Rob Messenger was elected as a member of the LNP in 2009, but quit the party to become an independent in 2010.

Voting method

Queensland uses optional preferential version of the instant-runoff system in single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Leadership of the Liberal National Party

Campbell Newman was elected leader of the LNP in early 2011 while he was the Lord Mayor of Brisbane. Standard practice calls for an MP from a safe seat to resign so that a newly elected leader can get into parliament via a by-election, though this is not universally followed. However, when Newman won the leadership in 2011, a by-election could not be arranged. [9] For this reason, Jeff Seeney was elected as interim parliamentary leader of the LNP and Leader of the Opposition. Newman led the LNP election team from outside of parliament, often sitting at the galleries, and simultaneously contested the seat of Ashgrove as the LNP candidate. [10]

Date

In Queensland, a parliamentary term is a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs. The previous state election was held on 21 March 2009 to elect the 89 members of the Legislative Assembly.

Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday; and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enroll or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence. [11]

The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for (up to) three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly lapses. [12] The day set for the return of writs for the 2009 election was 20 April 2009. [13] The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election "not later than 4 days after the day on which the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires by the passage of time" (section 78(2)). The last possible day for the next election was therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 24 April 2012, namely, 16 June 2012.

In choosing 24 March, Bligh made the unusual step of announcing the election date two months prior. Bligh was criticised for selecting a date which required the postponement of local government elections. [14] Bligh has said that date allowed Queenslanders to view the final report of the Commission of Inquiry into the 2010–11 Queensland floods before they vote. [15] Normal practice in Australia is for parliament to be dissolved at the time of the election announcement. However, Bligh did not formally ask Governor Penelope Wensley to dissolve Parliament until 19 February. Wensley granted the request, formally beginning the 35-day campaign. [16] By not asking for a dissolution in January, Bligh avoided placing the government in caretaking mode for 25 days. [15]

Key dates

DateEvent
19 February 2012 Writ of election issued by the Governor [17]
25 February 2012Close of electoral rolls
27 February 2012Close of nominations
24 March 2012Polling day, between the hours of 8am and 6pm
26 March 2012Interim Newman Ministry was sworn in [6]
3 April 2012Full Newman Ministry sworn [18]
23 April 2012Writ returned and results formally declared
15 May 201254th Parliament convened [19]

Retiring MPs

The following Members of Parliament stood down at the election:

Labor QLD

LNP

Independent

Contesting parties

A total of six Queensland registered political parties contested the election. The two major parties, the ALP and LNP (each contesting all 89 seats), The Greens (89 seats), Katter's Australian Party (76 seats), Family First (38 seats) and One Nation (6 seats). In addition to the above parties, 43 Independent or non-aligned candidates contested the election. Of the 43 candidates, several contested on behalf of unregistered parties, namely: Socialist Alliance (3 seats), North Queensland Party (3 seats), Queensland Party (2 seats), Democratic Labor Party (1 seat) and Middle Australian Party (1 seat).

Disendorsed candidates

The Liberal National Party disendorsed two candidates for the Gold Coast seat of Broadwater. Richard Townson was caught drink driving with a blood alcohol content of 0.07 when he was in a police random breath test. Cameron Caldwell was disendorsed when he confirmed he had attended a Gold Coast swingers' club. [25]

The Australian Labor Party disendorsed candidate Peter Watson for the seat of Southern Downs and expelled him from the party for making racist and homophobic remarks online. [26]

Katter appeal on ballot papers

On 2 March 2012, Katter's Australian Party sought an injunction in the Supreme Court of Queensland to have more than 2 million ballot papers shredded and reprinted. The party said the Queensland Electoral Commission used the party's abbreviated name, "The Australian Party", instead of its registered name, "Katter's Australian Party (Qld Division)", which the party claimed could confuse voters. [27] Bligh said that her lawyers had advised her to reschedule the election if Katter's challenge succeeded. [28]

On 7 March, Supreme Court Justice Roslyn Atkinson referred the matter to the Queensland Court of Appeal as matters of constitutional law in the case were outside her jurisdiction. [29] The Court of Appeal rejected the constitutional arguments and dismissed the appeal the following day. [30]

Polling

Newspoll polling was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at around ±3 percent.

Legislative Assembly polling
Primary vote TPP vote
ALPLNPGRNOTHALPLNP
2012 election26.7%49.7%7.5%16.1%37.2%62.8%
20–22 March 201228%50%6%16%39.2%60.8%
3–15 February 201230%47%9%14%42%58%
Oct–Dec 201131%44%10%15%44%56%
Jul–Sep 201127%50%8%15%39%61%
Apr–May 201131%51%7%11%40%60%
Jan–Mar 201138%37%10%15%52%48%
Oct–Dec 201026%45%13%16%41%59%
Jul–Sep 201029%44%14%13%43%57%
2009 Election 42.3%41.6%8.4%7.8%50.9%49.1%
18–19 March 200942%42%7%9%49.9%50.1%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
Better Premier polling^
BlighNewman
ALPLNP
20–22 March 201236%51%
3–15 February 201240%44%
Oct–Dec 201139%43%
Jul–Sep 201134%48%
Apr–May 201135%49%
Jan–Mar 201153%26%2
Oct–Dec 201031%41%2
Jul–Sep 201034%42%2
2009 election
18–19 March 200953%33%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll
and published in The Australian .
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Lawrence Springborg.
2 John-Paul Langbroek.
Satisfaction polling^
BlighNewman
ALPLNP
SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
20–22 March 201236%58%47%40%
3–15 February 201241%50%45%37%
Oct–Dec 201139%50%45%33%
Jul–Sep 201138%52%51%27%
Apr–May 201140%50%50%22%
Jan–Mar 201149%43%33%240%2
Oct–Dec 201024%67%38%238%2
Jul–Sep 201026%65%32%242%2
2009 election
18–19 March 200946%44%39%149%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Lawrence Springborg.
2 John-Paul Langbroek.

Newspaper endorsements

NewspaperEndorsement
The Australian Liberal National [31]
The Courier-Mail Liberal National

See also

Related Research Articles

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2017 Queensland state election

The 2017 Queensland state election was held on 25 November 2017 to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland, the unicameral Parliament of Queensland.

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