Western Australian state election, 2021

Last updated
Western Australian state election, 2021
Flag of Western Australia.svg
←  2017 13 March 2021
All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
  Mark McGowan headshot.jpg Mike nahan gnangarra 02.JPG No image.svg
Leader Mark McGowan Mike Nahan Mia Davies
Party Labor Liberal National
Leader since23 January 2012 (2012-01-23)21 March 2017 (2017-03-21)21 March 2017 (2017-03-21)
Leader's seat Rockingham Riverton Central Wheatbelt
Last election41 seats13 seats5 seats
Current seats40 seats14 seats5 seats
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg16
TPP @ 2017 55.5%45.5%
Incumbent Premier

Mark McGowan
Labor


The 2021 Western Australian state election is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2021 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, where all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council will be up for election. The first term incumbent Labor government, currently led by Premier Mark McGowan, will seek a second four-year term against the Liberal opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Mike Nahan.

Parliament of Western Australia Legislative body of the Australian state of Western Australia

The Parliament of Western Australia is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of Western Australia, forming the legislative branch of the Government of Western Australia. The parliament consists of a lower house, the Legislative Assembly, an upper house, the Legislative Council and the Queen, represented by the Governor of Western Australia. The two Houses of Parliament sit in Parliament House in the state capital, Perth.

Western Australian Legislative Assembly legislature of the State of Western Australia

The Western Australian Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of Western Australia, an Australian state. The Parliament sits in Parliament House in the Western Australian capital, Perth.

Western Australian Legislative Council upper house of the Legislature of the state of Western Australia

The Western Australian Legislative Council is the upper house of the Parliament of Western Australia, a state of Australia. It is regarded as a house of review for legislation passed by the Legislative Assembly, the lower house. The two Houses of Parliament sit in Parliament House in the state capital, Perth.

Contents

Background

The 2017 state election saw Labor win one of the most comprehensive victories on record at the state or territory level in Australia. Labor won 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly—a 12-seat majority—both WA Labor's strongest result ever, and the largest government seat tally and largest government majority in Western Australian parliamentary history. Additionally, Labor exceeded all published opinion polling, winning 55.5 percent of the two-party-preferred vote from a state record landslide 12.8 percent two-party swing. [1] [2] [3]

Two-party-preferred vote

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 45%, Labor 55%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.

Labor also became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats. The Labor government will require at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation. [3] [4]

Date

Election dates are set in statute with four-year fixed terms, to be held on the second Saturday of March every four years. [5]

Pendulum

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Joondalup Emily Hamilton ALP0.6
Kingsley Jessica Stojkovski ALP0.7
Jandakot Yaz Mubarakai ALP1.0
Murray-Wellington Robyn Clarke ALP1.4
Pilbara Kevin Michel ALP2.3
Kalamunda Matthew Hughes ALP2.5
Burns Beach Mark Folkard ALP2.5
Bicton Lisa O'Malley ALP2.9
Mount Lawley Simon Millman ALP4.0
Albany Peter Watson ALP5.1
Balcatta David Michael ALP5.8
Fairly safe
Baldivis Reece Whitby ALP v IND7.2
Wanneroo Sabine Winton ALP7.3
Southern River Terry Healy ALP7.9
Forrestfield Stephen Price ALP9.4
Safe
Bunbury Don Punch ALP10.8
Belmont Cassie Rowe ALP11.4
Morley Amber-Jade Sanderson ALP11.4
Perth John Carey ALP11.8
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP13.0
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP13.0
Swan Hills Jessica Shaw ALP14.5
Collie Preston Mick Murray ALP14.7
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP15.5
Thornlie Chris Tallentire ALP15.8
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP15.9
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP16.5
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP16.7
West Swan Rita Saffioti ALP17.1
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP17.9
Mandurah David Templeman ALP18.0
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP18.1
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP18.1
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP19.2
Butler John Quigley ALP19.5
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP21.5
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP23.1
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP23.4
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP23.7
Armadale Tony Buti ALP25.2
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Dawesville Zak Kirkup LIB0.7
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB1.3
Hillarys Peter Katsambanis LIB4.1
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB4.4
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB5.6
Fairly safe
Kalgoorlie Kyran O'Donnell LIB6.2
South Perth John McGrath LIB7.1
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB8.3
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB9.0
Bateman Dean Nalder LIB9.5
Safe
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB13.2
Cottesloe David Honey LIB13.3
Vasse Libby Mettam LIB14.7
CROSS BENCH SEATS
North West Central Vince Catania NAT v ALP9.5
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT v ALP13.4
Moore Shane Love NAT v LIB13.9
Roe Peter Rundle NAT v LIB14.4
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT v ALP22.6

See also

This is a list of members of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly from 2017 to 2021.

This is a list of members of the Western Australian Legislative Council elected to serve a term between 22 May 2017 and 21 May 2021.

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References

  1. ↑ Labor 55.5% 2PP vote and +12.8% 2PP swing sourced from Antony Green's temporary estimate within provided ABC link published 30 March 2017, which states "The two-party preferred count is based on estimates for Baldivis, Moore and Roe. Actual two-party preferred counts for these seats will be available at a later date." – Final 2017 WA Election Results plus a New Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 30 March 2017
  2. ↑ Antony Green (16 March 2017). "The Role of One-Vote One-Value Electoral Reforms in Labor's Record WA Victory". ABC News (Australia) . Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  3. 1 2 "WA Election 2017". ABC News. 11 March 2017. Retrieved 12 March 2017.
  4. ↑ "WA Labor misses out on upper house working majority by one seat". ABC News. 26 March 2017.
  5. ↑ "'So when is the next election?'". Aph.gov.au. 2016-09-01. Retrieved 2017-09-28.
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