New South Wales state election, 2019

Last updated

New South Wales state election, 2019
Flag of New South Wales.svg
←  2015 23 March 2019
All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Gladys Berejiklian.JPG AustralianGreensLogo official.svg
Leader Gladys Berejiklian Michael Daley No leader
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens
Leader since23 January 2017 10 November 2018
Leader's seat Willoughby Maroubra
Last election45.63%, 54 seats34.08%, 34 seats10.29%, 3 seats
Current seats52 seats34 seats3 seats
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 13Increase2.svg 44
TPP @ 2015 54.32%45.68%–
TPP polling 50%50%–
Incumbent Premier

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal/National coalition


The next New South Wales state election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 23 March 2019 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council. The eight-year two-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government, currently led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian, will attempt to win a third four-year term and will be challenged by the Labor opposition, as well as the Greens. No Coalition Government in the state has won a third term in office since 1971.

Parliament of New South Wales legislative body in the Australian state of New South Wales

The Parliament of New South Wales, located in Parliament House on Macquarie Street, Sydney, is the main legislative body in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). It is a bicameral parliament elected by the people of the state in general elections. The parliament shares law making powers with the Australian Federal Parliament. It is Australia's oldest legislature. The New South Wales Parliament follows the Westminster parliamentary traditions of dress, Green–Red chamber colours and protocol.

New South Wales Legislative Assembly one of the two chambers of the Parliament of New South Wales

The New South Wales Legislative Assembly is the lower of the two houses of the Parliament of New South Wales, an Australian state. The upper house is the New South Wales Legislative Council. Both the Assembly and Council sit at Parliament House in the state capital, Sydney. The Assembly is presided over by the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly.

New South Wales Legislative Council Upper house of the Parliament of New South Wales

The New South Wales Legislative Council, often referred to as the upper house, is one of the two chambers of the parliament of the Australian state of New South Wales. The other is the Legislative Assembly. Both sit at Parliament House in the state capital, Sydney. It is normal for legislation to be first deliberated on and passed by the Legislative Assembly before being considered by the Legislative Council, which acts in the main as a house of review.

Contents

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Compulsory voting requires citizens to register to vote and to go to their polling place or vote on election day

Compulsory voting is an effect of laws which require eligible citizens to register and vote in elections, and may impose penalties on those who fail to do so. As of August 2013, 22 countries provide for compulsory voting, and 11 democracies — about 5% of all United Nations members — enforce it.

Instant-runoff voting (IRV) or Ranked choice voting (RCV) is a type of ranked preferential voting method used in single-seat elections with more than two candidates. Instead of indicating support for only one candidate, voters in IRV elections can rank the candidates in order of preference. Ballots are initially counted for each voter's top choice. If a candidate has more than half of the vote based on first-choices, that candidate wins. If not, then the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated. The voters who selected the defeated candidate as a first choice then have their votes added to the totals of their next choice. This process continues until a candidate has more than half of the votes. When the field is reduced to two, it has become an "instant runoff" that allows a comparison of the top two candidates head-to-head.

The single transferable vote (STV) is a voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through ranked voting in multi-seat organizations or constituencies. Under STV, an elector (voter) has a single vote that is initially allocated to their most preferred candidate. Votes are totalled and a quota derived. If their candidate achieves quota, he/she is elected and in some STV systems any surplus vote is transferred to other candidates in proportion to the voters' stated preferences. If more candidates than seats remain, the bottom candidate is eliminated with his/her votes being transferred to other candidates as determined by the voters' stated preferences. These elections and eliminations, and vote transfers if applicable, continue until there are only as many candidates as there are unfilled seats. The specific method of transferring votes varies in different systems.

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election to be held on the fourth Saturday in March, [1] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Governor of New South Wales vice-regal representative of the Australian monarch in New South Wales

The Governor of New South Wales is the viceregal representative of the Australian monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, in the state of New South Wales. In an analogous way to the Governor-General of Australia at the national level, the Governors of the Australian states perform constitutional and ceremonial functions at the state level. The governor is appointed by the queen on the advice of the premier of New South Wales, for an unfixed period of time—known as serving At Her Majesty's pleasure—though five years is the norm. The current governor is retired General David Hurley, who succeeded Dame Marie Bashir on 2 October 2014.

Background

2015 election – lower house

At the 2015 election, the Coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. But the Coalition had since been reduced to 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that resulted in the departure of eight MPs from the Liberal Party. The Labor Party gained 11 seats with a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats. Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both respectively retained their seats.

The Australian Labor Party , also known as NSW Labor, is the New South Wales branch of the Australian Labor Party. The parliamentary leader is elected from and by the members of the party caucus, comprising all party members in the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council. The party factions have a strong influence on the election of the leader. The leader's position is dependent on the continuing support of the caucus and the leader may be deposed by failing to win a vote of confidence of parliamentary members. By convention, the premier sits in the Legislative Assembly, and is the leader of the party controlling a majority in that house. The party leader also typically is a member of the Assembly, though this is not a strict party constitutional requirement. Barrie Unsworth, for example, was elected party leader while a member of the Legislative Council. He then transferred to the Assembly by winning a seat at a by-election.

2015 election – upper house

The 2015 election saw the incumbent Liberal/National coalition gain one seat in the legislative council to have a total of 20 despite a 5.1-point swing against them. The Labor party lost two seats, bringing their total down to 12; the Greens, Shooters and Fishers, and Christian Democrats saw no gains or losses in the election: these parties won five seats, two seats and two seats, respectively. The only gain came from the Animal Justice Party.

Animal Justice Party political party in Australia

Animal Justice Party (AJP) is a political party in Australia founded in 2009. The party was registered under the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) on 3 May 2011, making the party eligible for federal funding, should the party achieve the funding threshold of 4%. The party is also registered in New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, Western Australia, and the Australian Capital Territory. The AJP is the first political party in Australia formed solely to advance animal welfare issues.

By-elections held since 2015 election

Several by-elections were held since the 2015 election. In most of these, the party holding the seat did not change. There were two exceptions to this. In the 2016 Orange by-election, Philip Donato of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party won the seat, previously held by the Nationals. In the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election, independent candidate Joe McGirr won the seat, previously held by the Liberal Party.

Philip Donato is an Australian politician. He has been a Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party member of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly since November 2016, representing the electorate of Orange. Donato was a police officer and prosecutor before entering politics, and was elected at a by-election following the resignation of National Party MP Andrew Gee.

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party political party in Australia

The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (SFF) is an Australian political party. It primarily advocates for gun rights and the right of access to public land.

Marginal seat pendulum

Polling

Graphical summary

NSW state election 2018 polling - two-party preferred votes.svg
Two-party-preferred vote.
NSW state election 2018 polling - primary votes.svg
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A local regression trend is shown in a solid line.

Polling tables

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
LIBNATALPGRNOTHL/NPALP
10 November 2018 Michael Daley succeeds Luke Foley as leader of the Labor Party
8 November 2018 Luke Foley resigns as leader of the Labor Party
10 September 2018*Fairfax-ReachTEL [2] 35.1%31.5%10.5%17.3%50%50%
15 March 2018Fairfax-ReachTEL [3] 41.9%32.5%9.4%10%52%48%
6 March 2018Newspoll38%34%11%17%50%50%
October–December 2017Essential [4] 40%39%9%12%49%51%
5 October 2017Fairfax-ReachTEL [5] 37.6%31%9.1%22.3%52%48%
February–March 2017Newspoll [6] 40%34%10%16%51%49%
23 January 2017 Gladys Berejiklian becomes Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
19 January 2017Fairfax-ReachTEL [7] 42.7%28%8.4%20.9%55%45%
18 January 2017 Mike Baird announces resignation as Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
December 2016Fairfax-ReachTEL [8] 40.6%32.4%8%19%53%47%
October 2016Roy Morgan [9] 37%31.5%14%17.5%48.5%51.5%
August–September 2016Newspoll [10] 42%36%11%11%51%49%
August 2016Roy Morgan [11] 39%30.5%13%17.5%50.5%49.5%
27 August 2016Fairfax-ReachTEL [12] 39.4%34.9%8%9.6%50%50%
May 2016Roy Morgan [13] 46%29%17%8%53.5%46.5%
March 2016Roy Morgan [14] 46%27%15.5%11.5%55%45%
29 Jan – 1 February 2016 Roy Morgan [15] 52%24.5%14.5%9%59.5%40.5%
4–7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan [16] 52%22.5%15%10.5%60.5%39.5%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan [17] 54%24.5%13.5%8%60.5%39.5%
September 2015 Newspoll [18] 47%33%11%9%56%44%
28–31 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan [19] 49%*25%17.5%8.5%57%43%
25 June 2015 Roy Morgan [20] 49.5%*27.5%14%9%57%43%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan [21] 53.5%*29.5%12%5%58.5%41.5%
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan [22] 47.5%*31.0%12.5%9.0%54.5%45.5%
28 March 2015 election 35.1%10.5%34.1%10.3%9.9%54.3%45.7%
23–26 March 2015 Newspoll [23] 35%9%34%11%11%55%45% [24]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
8 November 2018 Foley resigns as Leader of the Opposition Berejiklian Daley BerejiklianDaley
DateFirmBetter PremierBerejiklianFoley
Berejiklian Foley SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
10 September 2018Fairfax-ReachTEL49.8%50.2%not asked
6 March 2018Newspoll43%25%not asked
15 March 2018Fairfax-ReachTEL52.3%47.7%not asked
5 October 2017Fairfax-ReachTEL52.1%47.9%not asked
February–March 2017Newspoll43%21%44%21%32%36%
23 January 2017 Berejiklian replaces Baird Baird FoleyBairdFoley
December 2016Fairfax-ReachTEL50.6%49.4%not asked
October 2016Roy Morgan52.5%47.5%not asked
29 September 2016Newspoll42%24%39%46%32%39%
27 August 2016Fairfax-ReachTEL48.7%51.3%not asked
29 Jan – 1 February 2016Roy Morgan72%28%not asked
4–7 Dec 2015Roy Morgan72.5%27.5%not asked
16 October 2015Roy Morgan74.5%25.5%not asked
September 2015Newspoll57%19%63%24%35%37%
25 June 2015Roy Morgan70%30%not asked
27 May 2015Roy Morgan70.5%29.5%not asked
15 April 2015Roy Morgan68%32%not asked
28 March 2015 election –––––––
23–26 Mar 2015Newspoll54%27%57%29%38%37%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here

Retiring MPs

Members who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  2. ↑ Smith, Alexandra. "VCoalition neck and neck with Labor as Foley overtakes Berejiklian". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 23 September 2018.
  3. ↑ Smith, Alexandra. "Voter revolt on stadiums poses threat to Premier". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 18 March 2018.
  4. ↑ Karp, Paul. "Gladys Berejiklian's Coalition trails Labor in Guardian Essential polls". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  5. ↑ "Poll shows Gladys Berejiklian holding her own but minor parties on the march". ReachTEL. 9 October 2017.
  6. ↑ "Newspoll: Gladys Berejiklian in strong start to NSW premiership". Newspoll. 7 April 2017.
  7. ↑ "ReachTEL: 55–45 to Coalition in New South Wales". Crikey. 20 January 2017.
  8. ↑ "Fairfax-ReachTel poll shows NSW premier Mike Baird bouncing back". Fairfax-ReachTel. 3 December 2016.
  9. ↑ "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
  10. ↑ "Newspoll: Dogs ban sends Mike Baird ratings into freefall". Newspoll. 29 September 2016.
  11. ↑ "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
  12. ↑ "Support for Mike Baird's government collapses: exclusive poll". The Sydney Morning Herald. 27 August 2016. Retrieved 27 August 2016.
  13. ↑ "L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
  14. ↑ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4-year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
  15. ↑ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) increases support in South Australia while L-NP well in front in NSW and ALP holds solid lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. 3 February 2016. Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  16. ↑ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) scores highly in South Australia while ALP vote down in Victoria but still maintains strong lead". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. 8 December 2015. Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  17. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  18. ↑ "Newspoll" (PDF). The Australian. 25 September 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2015.
  19. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States except Tasmania are close". Roy Morgan Research. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 3 September 2015.
  20. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6315-morgan-poll-sms-state-voting-intention-june-2015-201506250218
  21. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6261-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-may-2015-201505270543
  22. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6159-morgan-poll-state-voting-intention-april-2015-201504150230
  23. ↑ http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/03/27/1227281/937840-150328poll.pdf
  24. ↑ Preference allocation based on previous election. Respondent-allocated vote was 52% L/NP, 48% ALP
  25. ↑ Sas, Nick (9 November 2018). "Luke Foley says he won't re-contest, with battle for NSW Labor leadership now between two". Australian Broadcasting Corporation .
  26. ↑ Bunn, Anthony (1 August 2018). "Member for Albury Greg Aplin has opted not to stand in next year's NSW election due to health concerns". The Border Mail .
  27. ↑ Costin, Luke (4 August 2018). "Two scandals in one term: MP won't recontest south-western Sydney seat". The Sydney Morning Herald .
  28. ↑ Dickins, Roma; Layt, Jess (28 September 2018). "Chris Patterson announces he will not contest Camden seat at March election". Campbelltown-Macarthur Advertiser.
  29. ↑ Zautsen, Daniel (15 February 2018). "Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell announces retirement". The Daily Telegraph .
  30. ↑ Deans, Matt (14 June 2018). "Andrew Fraser to retire at the 2019 State Election". Coffs Coast Advocate.
  31. ↑ Broome, Hamish (30 June 2017). "Lismore MP Thomas George announces retirement". Northern Star. Retrieved 30 June 2017.
  32. ↑ "Troy Grant, NSW Minister for Police, will not contest the next election". ABC News. 12 July 2018. Retrieved 13 July 2018.
  33. ↑ Druce, Alex (1 June 2017). "NSW Nationals MP Kevin Humphries won't recontest Barwon at the 2019 election". The Land .
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