Seismicity of the New York City area

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Seismicity of the New York City area is relatively low. [1] New York is less seismically active than California because it is far from any plate boundaries. Large and damaging intraplate earthquakes are relatively rare but when they do occur in the northeastern United States the areas affected by them are much larger than for earthquakes of similar magnitude on the West Coast. The largest known earthquake in the greater New York City area occurred in 1884, probably somewhere between Brooklyn and Sandy Hook, and had a magnitude of approximately 5. The New York quakes in 2023 and 2024 were shallow quakes. [2]

Contents

Earthquake risk

Earthquake risk assessments are based on factors like proximity to a fault line, population density and risk to infrastructure. The dense population and infrastructure mean that an earthquake of 5 or greater magnitude could do significant damage to New York City. Experts are worried that magnitude 5 quakes in New York may occur at shallow depths of less than 10 kilometers. [3]

Earthquakes of a 5 or greater magnitude occur once every 100 years according to a report from the Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. The last magnitude 5 quake in New York City occurred off the coast of Rockaway Beach in 1884. [4] [5]

There is a low probability of a large-magnitude earthquake but the risk of building-related earthquake losses was considered the fourth most at-risk state by FEMA in 2008. Contributing the risk is that most buildings were built before the seismic code was put in place in 1995. Unreinforced masonry buildings do not perform well in earthquakes. [6] Taller buildings that are next to shorter ones or empty lots are at greater risk from lateral shaking during an earthquake. Overall, the risk of an earthquake in the city is high from even a moderate earthquake because most the city's aging infrastructure was built without seismic codes. [7]

A 2008 study from Columbia University found that the New York area was at "substantially greater" risk of a 6 or 7 magnitude earthquake than was previously thought. [8]

Seismicity of New York

New York City is located on the North American plate shown in yellow. The closest plate boundaries are located along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Tectonic plates (2022).svg
New York City is located on the North American plate shown in yellow. The closest plate boundaries are located along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

The Atlantic continental margin of the Northeastern United States is a passive margin. [10] The seismicity of the northeast is generally considered to be due to ancient zones of weakness that are being reactivated in the present-day stress field. In this model, pre-existing faults that were formed during ancient geological episodes persist in the intraplate crust, and intraplate earthquakes occur when the present-day stress is released along these zones of weakness. The stress that causes the earthquakes is generally considered to be derived from present-day rifting at the Mid-Atlantic ridge.

The area within 100km radius of New York City has an intermediate level of seismic activity, more than what is observed in central New York State. [11] It is not as seismically active as California which is located at a transform plate boundary, but large and damaging earthquakes do occur. Furthermore, when these rare eastern U.S. earthquakes occur, the areas affected by them are much larger than for western U.S. earthquakes of the same magnitude. [12] [13] The Ramapo fault system is generally considered the most active fault system in the greater New York City area, the infrequency of seismic events of moderate or high-intensity pose problems for researchers who are unable to firmly associate the earthquakes in the region with specific geologic structures without instrumental records for the notable historic earthquakes. [14]

Past earthquakes

Seismicity in New York City area. Data from U.S. Geological Survey (Top, USGS) and National Earthquake Information Center (Bottom, NEIC). In top figure, closed red circles show 1924-2006 epicenters. Open black circles show larger earthquakes of 1737, 1783 and 1884. Green lines are the Ramapo fault. NYC Seis.png
Seismicity in New York City area. Data from U.S. Geological Survey (Top, USGS) and National Earthquake Information Center (Bottom, NEIC). In top figure, closed red circles show 1924–2006 epicenters. Open black circles show larger earthquakes of 1737, 1783 and 1884. Green lines are the Ramapo fault.

The largest known earthquake in New York City occurred in 1884, probably somewhere between Brooklyn and Sandy Hook, and had a magnitude of approximately 5. For this earthquake, observations of fallen bricks and cracked plaster were reported from eastern Pennsylvania to central Connecticut, and the maximum intensity reported was at two sites in western Long Island (Jamaica, New York and Amityville, New York). Two other earthquakes of approximately magnitude 5 occurred in this region in 1737 and in the 1783 New Jersey earthquake. [15] [16] [17]

Recent earthquakes

The 2011 Virginia earthquake, a 5.8 magnitude quake centered in northern Virginia that occurred on August 23, 2011, was felt by the occupants of some buildings in Manhattan, more than 200 miles (320 km) north of the quake's epicenter and caused minor physical building damage in Brooklyn. [18] There were some disruptions, including building evacuations and delays at airports, while Amtrak train service at Penn Station was also delayed. [19]

On April 5, 2024, a magnitude 4.8 earthquake centered near Whitehouse Station, New Jersey struck the region; no injuries or damage were immediately reported. [20] This is the highest-magnitude earthquake in the region since 1884. A second earthquake of a magnitude of 3.8 occurred around 5:59pm EST close to Gladstone, New Jersey and was felt in Manhattan and Brooklyn. [21]

New York City-area faults

Map depicting the extent of the Ramapo Fault System in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania RamapoFaultSystem.png
Map depicting the extent of the Ramapo Fault System in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania

The Ramapo Fault, which marks the western boundary of the Newark rift basin, has been argued to be a major seismically active feature of this region, [22] but it is difficult to discern the extent to which the Ramapo fault (or any other specific mapped fault in the area) might be any more of a source of future earthquakes than any other parts of the region. [23] The Ramapo Fault zone spans more than 185 miles (300 kilometers) in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. It is a system of faults between the northern Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont areas to the east. [24] This fault is perhaps the best known fault zone in the Mid-Atlantic region, and some small earthquakes have been known to occur in its vicinity. Recently, public knowledge about the fault has increased – especially after the 1970s, when the fault's proximity to the Indian Point nuclear plant in New York was noticed.

There is insufficient evidence to demonstrate unequivocally any strong correlation of earthquakes in the New York City area with specific faults or other geologic structures in this region. The damaging earthquake affecting New York City in 1884 was probably not associated with the Ramapo fault because the strongest shaking from that earthquake occurred on Long Island (quite far from the trace of the Ramapo fault). The relationship between faults and earthquakes in the New York City area is currently understood to be more complex than any simple association of a specific earthquake with a specific mapped fault. [25]

A 2008 study argued that a magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake might originate from the Ramapo fault zone, [16] which would almost definitely spawn hundreds or even thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. [26] Studying around 400 earthquakes over the past 300 years, the study also argued that there was an additional fault zone extending from the Ramapo Fault zone into southwestern Connecticut. As can be seen in the above figure of seismicity, earthquakes are scattered throughout this region, with no particular concentration of activity along the Ramapo fault, or along the hypothesized fault zone extending into southwestern Connecticut. [15] [23] [27]

Indian point

Just off the northern terminus of the Ramapo fault is the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant, built between 1956 and 1960 by Consolidated Edison Company. The plant operated from 1963 until 2021, and it has been the subject of a controversy over concerns that an earthquake from the Ramapo fault will affect the power plant. Whether the Ramapo fault actually does pose a threat to this nuclear power plant remains an open question. [23]

The Indian Point nuclear power plant is designed to withstand a Mercalli intensity of VII. There isn't agreement on the magnitude of quake the plant could withstand, but the estimate of the plant operator is that it would be able to withstand a magnitude 6 quake. [28]

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">San Andreas Fault</span> Geologic feature in California

The San Andreas Fault is a continental right-lateral strike-slip transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through the U.S. state of California. It forms part of the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate. Traditionally, for scientific purposes, the fault has been classified into three main segments, each with different characteristics and a different degree of earthquake risk. The average slip rate along the entire fault ranges from 20 to 35 mm per year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Intraplate earthquake</span> Earthquake that occurs within the interior of a tectonic plate

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">New Madrid Seismic Zone</span> Major seismic zone in the southern and midwestern United States

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2005 Fukuoka earthquake</span> Earthquake in Japan

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2005 Qeshm earthquake</span> Earthquake in Iran

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wasatch Fault</span> Active fault in the U.S. states of Utah and Idaho

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ramapo Fault</span> System of faults in the northeast United States

The Ramapo Fault zone is a system of faults between the northern Appalachian Mountains and Piedmont areas to the east. Spanning more than 185 miles (298 km) in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, it is perhaps the best known fault zone in the Mid-Atlantic region, and some small earthquakes have been known to occur in its vicinity. Recently, public knowledge about the fault has increased, especially after the 1970s, when the fault's proximity to the Indian Point nuclear plant in New York was noted.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Baja California earthquake</span> Earthquake in Mexico

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">1916 Irondale earthquake</span> Earthquake in Alabama on October 18, 1916

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2011 Virginia earthquake</span> Earthquake in Virginia, U.S.

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The 1870 Charlevoix earthquake occurred on 20 October in the Canadian province of Quebec. It had a moment magnitude of 6.6 Mw  and a Modified Mercalli intensity rating of X (Extreme). The town of Baie-Saint-Paul was seriously damaged by the event, with the loss of six lives. Effects from the earthquake were felt as far as Virginia and along the New England coast of the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 New Jersey earthquake</span> 4.8 magnitude earthquake in Northeastern U.S.

On April 5, 2024, at 10:23 EDT, a Mw 4.8 earthquake occurred in the U.S. state of New Jersey, with the epicenter in Tewksbury Township. While it was felt across the New York metropolitan area, Delaware Valley, the Washington D.C metropolitan area, and other parts of the northeastern United States between Virginia and Maine, it had a relatively minor impact, with no major damage reported. There were dozens of aftershocks throughout the rest of the week and into the next.

References

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  3. ↑ Rohrlich, Justin (April 5, 2024). "Does the East Coast Earthquake Mean the Big One Is Coming?". The Daily Beast. Archived from the original on April 6, 2024. Retrieved April 6, 2024.
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  15. 1 2 Kafka, A.L.; Schlesinger-Miller, E.A.; Barstow, N.L. (1985). "Earthquake Activity in the Greater New York City Area: Magnitudes, Seismicity, and Geologic Structures". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 75 (1): 1285–1300. Bibcode:1985BuSSA..75.1285K. doi:10.1785/BSSA0750051285.
  16. 1 2 Sykes, L. R.; Armbruster, J. G.; Kim, W.-Y.; Seeber, L. (2008). "Observations and Tectonic Setting of Historic and Instrumentally Located Earthquakes in the Greater New York City-Philadelphia Area". Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 98 (4): 1696–1719. Bibcode:2008BuSSA..98.1696S. doi:10.1785/0120070167. S2CID   5870834.
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  19. ↑ "NY gets tremors but no damage from quake in Va" . The Wall Street Journal. August 23, 2011. Archived from the original on May 3, 2017. Retrieved August 23, 2011– via Associated Press.
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  23. 1 2 3 http://akafka.wordpress.com/faults-and-earthquakes-in-the-greater-new-york-city-area-reflections-at-the-intersection-of-science-media-and-the-public/ Archived 2010-08-15 at the Wayback Machine Faults and Earthquakes in the Greater NY City Area: Reflections at the Intersection of Science, the Media, and the Public
  24. ↑ Earthquakes and the Ramapo Fault System in Southeastern New York State Archived 2011-07-27 at the Wayback Machine . Earth Institute News Archive, Columbia University, 2004. Retrieved October 24, 2009.
  25. ↑ "Geologic Faults and Earthquakes in New Jersey". New Jersey Geological Survey. 2009. Archived from the original on March 6, 2010. Retrieved October 24, 2009.
  26. ↑ Fitzgerald, Jim (August 23, 2008). "Study finds new earthquake dangers for NYC". Fox News. Archived from the original on September 26, 2008. Retrieved October 24, 2009.
  27. ↑ Kafka, A.L. M.A. Winslow, and N.L. Barstow (1989), Earthquake Activity in the Greater New York City Area: A Fault Finder's Guide, in Field Trip Guidebook (D. Weiss,Editor), 61st Annual Meeting, New York State Geological Association, 177–204
  28. ↑ Muller, Mike. "Preparing for the Great New York Earthquake". Gotham Gazette. Archived from the original on October 30, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2024.
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