Greedflation is a theory that describes the idea that some inflation is driven by increases in corporate profits. Suggested mechanisms include price gouging, price fixing, windfall gains resulting from information asymmetry, monopoly-like power, and external shocks to the economy. The theory, which first gained traction among left-wing pundits and trade unions, [1] was considered fringe before the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to Paul Hannon of The Wall Street Journal , most economists believe profits have played a larger role in the post-COVID-19 inflationary episode than during the period of inflation that had occurred in the 1970s, although the issue of precisely to what degree has proven controversial and a point of contention. [2] Organizations and notable people that have expressed concern about inflation alleged to have resulted from outsized or unusually high corporate profits include the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB), Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Isabella Weber, Paul Donovan, and Robert Reich. Some proposed remedies include pursuing anti-trust enforcement, windfall profit taxes, and anti-price gouging measures like price caps. Organizations and notable people who dispute the concept include The Economist while others who think greedflation exists but is not as significant include CNN, Justin Wolfers, Jason Furman, and Noah Smith.
The term "greedflation" was a candidate for word of the year for the Collins English Dictionary in 2023, [3] [4] and was added to Dictionary.com in 2024. [5] [6] Collins Dictionary defines it as either "the use of inflation as an excuse to raise prices to artificially high levels in order to increase corporate profits" or "an increase in the price of goods and services caused by businesses increasing their prices by more than their costs have risen". [3] [7]
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation increased significantly as did discussion of the role of corporate profits in that increase. [8] [9] Proponents of the theory pointed to data showing that corporate profits outpaced inflation. [8] Economists interviewed by PolitiFact believe rising costs of goods, labor, and real estate are bigger drivers of inflation than corporate profits. [8] Combatting inflation by ensuring corporations are not taking excessive profits was cited by some Democrats ahead of the 2024 United States elections. [10] [11]
Economists and politicians argue that the market concentration that occurred in the early 21st century in some major industries, especially retailing, has given companies the ability to wield near-monopolistic pricing power. [12] Isabella Weber and Evan Wasner say firms with a lot of market power in consolidated industries can raise prices under the cover of inflation as a form of implicit cartel-like coordination. [13]
In Australia in 2023 and 2024, major supermarket chains Coles and Woolworths received criticism as price gouging, with critics pointing to their 65% share of Australia's grocery market, [14] as well as their higher prices in neighborhoods with less competition. [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] The meat industry in the United States has also been cited as an example where profits went up industry-wide as prices went up, with some pointing to consolidation and a lack of competition as an underlying cause. [20] Many economists, according to the New York Times in 2022, responded by observing that if these large corporations had so much market power, they could have used it to increase prices at any time, regardless of the COVID-19 pandemic. [12]
In the inflationary environment, everybody knows that prices are increasing. Obviously that's a great opportunity for every firm to realign their prices as much as they can. You're not going to have an opportunity again like this for a long time. [21]
—Z. John Zhang, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania
Some economists and professors, such as Paul Donovan, [22] Isabella Weber, Albert Edwards, [23] and Z. John Zhang, [12] argue that during times of high inflation consumers know prices are increasing but may not have a good understanding of what reasonable prices should be, allowing retailers to raise prices faster than the cost inflation they are experiencing, resulting in larger profits. [24]
Ernie Tedeschi argues that every realistic economist would agree that in the short-run, there is not perfect competition which can lead to higher profits due to consumers being less informed than the businesses but does not believe the effect is large or lasting. [25] Weber argues that the increased prices in the short-run can also lead to longer-run price increases by activating the wage-price spiral and increasing inflation expectations. [25] In August 2024, the Associated Press reported that greedflation was easing as consumers become more discriminating. [26]
The FTC released a report in March 2024 finding that some large retailers did not drop prices when input costs dropped. The study found some large retailers sought to gain an advantage over smaller competitors by threatening suppliers with large fines if strict delivery requirements were not met. The FTC also objected to continued elevated profit margins as evidence that there was not enough competition in the grocery sector. [27] The FTC and several state attorneys general in February 2024 sued to block a proposed $25 billion merger between large grocery chains Kroger and Albertsons, arguing the deal would reduce competition and likely lead to higher consumer prices. [28]
Windfall profit taxes have gained renewed interest following the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and subsequent surges in energy and food prices. As major American and British oil producers (Big Oil) reported record profits in the first half of 2022, [29] [30] [31] [32] the United Kingdom imposed a 25% windfall profit tax on British North Sea oil producers, which expected to raise £5 billion to pay for a government scheme that reduced household energy costs. [33] In October 2022, U.S. president Joe Biden threatened to seek a windfall profit tax if the industry did not increase production to curb gasoline prices. [34]
Eric Levitz argues that windfall taxes are worth pursuing regardless of whether greedflation is a major factor or not, as it would incentivize producers to invest in expanding production (which takes pressure off of prices) instead of giving out dividends to shareholders. [35] Thomas Baunsgaard and Nate Verson of the IMF recommend implementing permanent windfall profit taxes on fossil fuel extraction but not temporary taxes or taxes on renewable energy. [36] They argue that the taxes should always target a clear measure of excess profits and not be tied to price levels or revenue. [36] Other notable supporters include Joseph Stiglitz and Isabella Weber, [37] [38] among other economists. [39] [40] [41]
Eric Levitz argues that these laws are worth pursuing regardless of whether greedflation is a major factor or not. [35] Isabella Weber recommends strict price gouging legislation, praising the 2023 proposal in New York to cap price increases during emergencies to 10% for consumers as well as for businesses upstream. [42] [38]
Isabella Weber and her colleagues argue for price caps. [43] [38] Paul Krugman changed his mind and expressed interest in adding price caps to the toolkit to flight inflation. [43] CNN argued against price caps. [44]
In the words of Paul Hannon writing for The Wall Street Journal in December 2023, "[t]here is broad consensus among economists that the role of profits in fueling inflation is one feature of the recent inflationary episode that made it different from the 1970s. Yet how much of a role profits played is the subject of controversy." [2]
In July 2023, The Economist criticized the entire concept of greedflation as "nonsense" and argued that rising prices are not due to "greedy companies" but are a natural result of supply and demand issues caused by the cash infusion to the economy which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic. [45]
In 2022, several economists stated that while price gouging could be a minor contributor to continuing inflation, it is not one of the major underlying causes that started this surge. [46] [24] [12] [47] Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, quotes Jason Furman, who served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under U.S. president Barack Obama said, "Blaming inflation on [corporate] greed is like blaming a plane crash on gravity. It is technically correct, but it entirely misses the point." [48] Wolfers states that companies will always charge the highest prices possible, but that competition keeps prices in check. [48] In August 2024, CNN argued that greedflation "is for sure a thing" but is not a primary driver of inflation when averaged out across all industries. [44] Libertarian critics, citing a study by the Cato Institute, accused the Groundwork Collaborative study of deliberately "cherry pick[ing] a one year timeframe [2023] to tell a misleading story", and that profits are not a major fact in inflation. [49]
In the United States, some Democratic politicians, [46] [47] as well as other observers, have contended that price gouging or "greedflation" exacerbated the inflation surge in the United States. [46] [24] [12] Robert Reich argued that though price gouging is not the main cause of inflation, there is a lot of evidence it is aggravating the situation. [47] In January 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released a study showing markup growth likely contributed more than 50 percent to inflation in 2021, far above normal; however, the markup itself could be due to expectations around future costs. [50] [51] A May 2023 New York Times story reported that despite the costs of doing business falling in recent months, many large corporations have continued to raise prices, contributing to the recent inflation surge. It warned that inflation due to profit-taking could lead to an economic downturn created by sustained higher interest rates. [52]
A 2021 analysis conducted by The New York Times found that profit margins across more than 2,000 publicly traded companies were well above the pre-pandemic average during the year, as corporate profits reached a record high. [53] [54] Economists at the University of Massachusetts Amherst found that in 2022 profit margins of U.S. companies reached their highest level since the aftermath of World War II. [51] ECB economists found in May 2023 that businesses were using the surge as a rare opportunity to boost their profit margins, finding it was a bigger factor than rising wages in fueling inflation during the second half of 2022. [55] An IMF study published in June 2023 found that rising corporate profits accounted for almost half of the increase in euro area inflation during the preceding two years. [56]
Shortly after initial energy price shocks caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine subsided, oil companies found that supply chain constrictions, already exacerbated by the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, supported price inelasticity, i.e., they began lowering prices to match the price of oil when it fell much more slowly than they had increased their prices when costs rose. [57] Analysis published in June 2023 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that, from February 2020 through May 2023, gasoline retailing profit margins had increased 62%. [58] Isabella Weber warned in December 2023 that energy prices are so volatile that special attention should be paid to them to try and keep future supply shocks from causing more sellers' inflation (Weber's term for greedflation). [2]
An analysis published in early 2024 by the White House Council of Economic Advisers found that U.S. grocery and beverage retailers had increased their margins by nearly two percentage points since the eve of the pandemic, to the highest level in two decades. The analysis found that grocer margins had remained elevated as the inflation surge eased, although margins for other types of retailers had fallen back to historical levels. President Biden and others asserted that shrinkflation, a practice of reducing portion or quantity sizes of packaged foods while maintaining the same price, was keeping profit margins higher than usual. [59] [60] [61] [62] In 2024, Ernie Tedeschi argued that no more than one-fourth of the grocery inflation in the U.S. during COVID could be attributed to greedflation. [25]
An analysis published in May 2023 by The New York Times found that U.S. auto manufacturers and dealers shifted from a high volume-low margin business model before the pandemic to a low volume-high margin model after the pandemic. A 2023 study published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics found dealer markups outpaced input costs, driving 35% to 62% of new vehicle inflation from 2019 to 2022. [63] Isabella Weber argues that the shortage of chips gave existing producers a "temporary monopoly" where they did not have to worry about new entrants, allowing them to raise prices. [42] In July 2023, Eric Levitz in Intelligencer contested the idea that greedflation was a significant factor in post-pandemic inflation, observing that many of the studies rely on correlation not causation. He also cited an example of how a used car salesman would see profits improve on his existing inventory without cost increases as one example of how companies can get unusual profits without improper behavior; [35] however, he found one argument plausible, even if unproven, that supply shocks could result in greedflation as shortages make it harder for new entrants to gain market share. [35]
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is an independent agency of the United States government whose principal mission is the enforcement of civil (non-criminal) antitrust law and the promotion of consumer protection. The FTC shares jurisdiction over federal civil antitrust law enforcement with the Department of Justice Antitrust Division. The agency is headquartered in the Federal Trade Commission Building in Washington, DC.
Loblaw Companies Limited is a Canadian retailer encompassing corporate and franchise supermarkets operating under 22 regional and market-segment banners, as well as pharmacies, banking and apparel. Loblaw operates a private label program that includes grocery and household items, clothing, baby products, pharmaceuticals, cellular phones, general merchandise and financial services. Loblaw is the largest Canadian food retailer, and its brands include President's Choice, No Name and Joe Fresh. It is controlled by George Weston Limited, a holding company controlled by the Weston family; Galen G. Weston is the chair of the Loblaw board of directors, as well as chair of the board of directors and CEO of Canada-based holding company George Weston.
Incomes policies in economics are economy-wide wage and price controls, most commonly instituted as a response to inflation, and usually seeking to establish wages and prices below free market level.
Price gouging is a pejorative term used to refer to the practice of increasing the prices of goods, services, or commodities to a level much higher than is considered reasonable or fair by some. This commonly applies to price increases of basic necessities after natural disasters. Usually, this event occurs after a demand or supply shock. The term can also be used to refer to profits obtained by practices inconsistent with a competitive free market, or to windfall profits. In some jurisdictions of the United States during civil emergencies, price gouging is a specific crime. Price gouging is considered by some to be exploitative and unethical and by others to be a simple result of supply and demand.
An excess profits tax, EPT, is a tax on returns or profits which exceed risk-adjusted normal returns. The concept of excess profit is very similar to that of economic rent. Excess profit taxes are usually imposed on monopolist industries.
A windfall tax is a higher tax rate on profits that ensue from a sudden windfall gain to a particular company or industry.
The usage and pricing of gasoline results from factors such as crude oil prices, processing and distribution costs, local demand, the strength of local currencies, local taxation or subsidy, and the availability of local sources of gasoline (supply). Since fuels are traded worldwide, the trade prices are similar. The price paid by consumers largely reflects national pricing policy. Most countries impose taxes on gasoline (petrol), which causes air pollution and climate change; whereas a few, such as Venezuela, subsidize the cost. Some country's taxes do not cover all the negative externalities, that is they do not make the polluter pay the full cost. Western countries have among the highest usage rates per person. The largest consumer is the United States.
Willard Galen Garfield Weston, known as Galen Weston Jr. or Galen G. Weston, is an Irish-Canadian businessman and a member of the Weston family. He is chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of George Weston Limited, and chairman and former president of Loblaw Companies Limited. He is the second child of Galen Weston and Hilary Weston.
Ecoflation is a future scenario in "Rattling Supply Chains", a research report by the World Resources Institute and A.T. Kearney, released in November 2008. It is characterized by natural resources becoming scarcer and sustainability issues become more pressing, leading to an increase in the price of commodities. The effects of the increase in the price of commodities are felt by corporations suffering environmental costs being added to their usual cost of doing business.
In economics, shrinkflation, also known as package downsizing, weight-out, and price pack architecture is the process of items shrinking in size or quantity while the prices remain the same. The word is a portmanteau of the words shrink and inflation. Skimpflation involves a reformulation or other reduction in quality.
Food prices refer to the average price level for food across countries, regions and on a global scale. Food prices affect producers and consumers of food. Price levels depend on the food production process, including food marketing and food distribution. Fluctuation in food prices is determined by a number of compounding factors. Geopolitical events, global demand, exchange rates, government policy, diseases and crop yield, energy costs, availability of natural resources for agriculture, food speculation, changes in the use of soil and weather events directly affect food prices. To a certain extent, adverse price trends can be counteracted by food politics.
A destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT) is a cashflow tax with a destination-based border-adjustment. Unlike traditional corporate income tax, firms are able to immediately expense all capital investment. This ensures that normal profit is out of the tax base and only super-normal profits are taxed. Additionally, the destination-based border-adjustment is the same as how the Value-Added Tax treat cross-border transactions—by exempting exports but taxing imports.
The Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 was enacted as part of a compromise between the Carter Administration and the Congress over the decontrol of crude oil prices. The Act was intended to recoup the revenue earned by oil producers as a result of the sharp increase in oil prices brought about by the OPEC oil embargo. According to a report by the Congressional Research Service, the Act's title was a misnomer. "Despite its name, the crude oil windfall profit tax... was not a tax on profits. It was an excise tax... imposed on the difference between the market price of oil, which was technically referred to as the removal price, and a statutory 1979 base price that was adjusted quarterly for inflation and state severance taxes." The report also stated that the tax only generated $40 billion in net revenue though it was projected to generate $175 billion, and because the tax was an excise tax on oil produced domestically in the United States and not imposed on imported oil, it reduced domestic oil production by 1-5% while dependence on imported oil increased by 3-13%.
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Following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a worldwide surge in inflation began in mid-2021 and lasted until mid-2022. Many countries saw their highest inflation rates in decades. It has been attributed to various causes, including pandemic-related economic dislocation, supply chain disruptions, the fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in 2020 and 2021 by governments and central banks around the world in response to the pandemic, and price gouging. Preexisting factors that may have contributed to the surge included housing shortages, climate impacts, and government budget deficits have also been cited as factors. Recovery in demand from the COVID-19 recession had, by 2021, revealed significant supply shortages across many business and consumer economic sectors.
Since late 2021, the prices for many essential goods in the United Kingdom began increasing faster than household incomes, resulting in a fall in real incomes. The phenomenon has been termed a cost-of-living crisis. This is caused in part by a rise in inflation in both the UK and the world in general, as well as the economic impact of issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Brexit. While all in the UK are affected by rising prices, it most substantially affects low-income persons. The British government has responded in various ways such as grants, tax rebates, and subsidies to electricity and gas suppliers.
Groundwork Collaborative (GWC) is an American 501(c)(3) non-profit think tank and progressive advocacy group based in Washington, D.C., that, according to its website, works to "change economic policy and narratives to build public power, curb private power, and create an economy that works for all of us." The organization is best known for research, analysis, and media commentary on economic issues, such as inflation, student debt, housing, and the U.S. labor market.
Isabella M. Weber is a German economist. She is an associate professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
There is broad consensus among economists that the role of profits in fueling inflation is one feature of the recent inflationary episode that made it different from the 1970s. Yet how much of a role profits played is the subject of controversy.
There is a growing consensus across the world that corporate greed is the new villain in town...
When thinking about greedflation, it's helpful to break it down into three questions: Are companies charging more than necessary to cover their rising costs? If so, is that enough to meaningfully accelerate inflation? And is all this happening because large companies have market power they didn't decades ago? ... There is not much disagreement that many companies have marked up goods in excess of their own rising costs. ... When all prices are rising, consumers lose track of how much is reasonable to pay. ... But most of the public argument has been about whether companies with more market share have been affecting prices once goods are finished and delivered. And that's where many economists become skeptical, noting that if these increasingly powerful corporations had so much leverage, they would have used it before the pandemic.
According to quarterly reports for Tyson, the nation's largest meat processor, the company posted $3 billion in profit in 2021. ... Other major meat suppliers are also posting similar profits. Some analysts like Salvador believe the numbers don't add up. ... But what we see at the same time is that their profitability has been able to increase because the demand increases for their products have more than offset their cost increases. ... Salvador said there is nothing to keep the prices from increasing as long as "there isn't competition that will help drive down the prices so that they have a reason to actually be more reasonable."
Consumers seem to be buying stories that seem to justify price increases, but which really serve as cover for profit margin expansion.
Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, says he has no evidence that excessive profits are pushing up inflation beyond where it would be if companies simply passed on extra costs to consumers, ... Albert Edwards, a senior analyst at Société Générale, ... "Companies [have] under the cover of recent crises, pushed margins higher," he said in a note. "And, most surprisingly, they still continue to do so, even as their raw material costs fall away. Consumers are still 'tolerating' this 'excuseflation', possibly because excess [government] largesse has provided households with a buffer. ... Isabella Weber, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, has shown which kinds of companies are able to benefit from a crisis, giving academic support for what she considers a rational capitalist reaction to a crisis, one that allows them to make even bigger profits when consumers are primed to expect prices to rise in leaps and bounds.
Some of the nation's largest retailers have been using soaring inflation rates as an excuse to raise prices and rake in billions of dollars in additional profit, a corporate watchdog group charged on Friday. ... The report highlights an ongoing debate about the causes of inflation, with some consumer advocates arguing that corporations are using inflation as a justification for passing on even higher price hikes to consumers. ... To be sure, inflation is rising sharply due to a number of underlying economic issues, such as supply-chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and strong demand from consumers.
Similarly, one can make a case for windfall-profits taxes and anti-price-gouging measures without endorsing the greedflation hypothesis. In my own view, it isn't necessarily all bad for producers of high-demand goods to earn high profits — if they reinvest those profits into expanded production. If the public's need for vaccines or computer chips far outstrips their supply, then it would be good for the makers of such things to have more capital at their disposal. On the other hand, if such producers earn windfall profits, then disperse them to investors rather than reinvesting them, there is a case for public policy to change their incentives or redistribute their earnings.
World Inequality Lab is co-directed by the influential economist Thomas Piketty, the author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century...
But inflation gives greedy, monopolistic companies a chance to take advantage, said Lindsay Owens, the executive director of the left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative. Profiteering 'is an accelerant of price increases,' she told me. 'It is not the primary cause.'...More recent developments have also weakened the greedflation theory. Inflation has remained high...But the stock market has plummeted;...If the pursuit of profits were driving more inflation, you would not expect to see that.
Many Democrats blame price-gouging companies for the worst surge in Americans' cost of living in more than a generation. But economists, including several who are left-leaning, disagree.
Wolfers says companies are always trying to charge as much as they possibly can. In fact, the only reason we're not all paying $800 for a pair of socks or a cheeseburger is simply due to greed in another form: competition. ... "Inflation is coming from demand," says Wolfers. In spite of inflation, demand hasn't really blinked. Companies have been raising prices and we have been paying them. In fact, in many parts of the economy, spending has been rising right along with prices. ... And when our buying slows down, Wolfers says, companies will start lowering prices to entice us to buy: Prices will fall and inflation will ease. But, until demand drops, companies will push prices up as much as they can. It's elementary.
A New York Times analysis of over 2,000 publicly traded companies outside the financial sector found that most of them increased sales faster than expenses, a remarkable feat when the cost of wages, raw materials and components was rising and supply chains were out of whack. As a result, profit margins, which measure how much money a business makes on each dollar of sales, rose well above the prepandemic average. On the whole, companies made an estimated $200 billion in additional operating profits last year because of that increase in margins.
Inflation has proved more stubborn than central banks bargained for when prices started surging two years ago. Now some economists think they know why: Businesses are using a rare opportunity to boost their profit margins...According to economists at the ECB, businesses have been padding their profits. That, they said, was a bigger factor in fuelling inflation during the second half of last year than rising wages were
As the Chart of the Week shows, the higher inflation so far mainly reflects higher profits and import prices, with profits accounting for 45 percent of price rises since the start of 2022. That's according to our new paper, which breaks down inflation, as measured by the consumption deflator, into labor costs, import costs, taxes, and profits. Import costs accounted for about 40 percent of inflation, while labor costs accounted for 25 percent. Taxes had a slightly deflationary impact.