The 2014 Hungarian parliamentary election took place on 6 April 2014.[1] This parliamentary election was the 7th since the 1990 first multi-party election. The result was a victory for the Fidesz–KDNP alliance, preserving its two-thirds majority, with Viktor Orbán remaining Prime Minister.[2] It was the first election under the new Constitution of Hungary which came into force on 1 January 2012. The new electoral law also entered into force that day. For the first time since Hungary's transition to democracy, the election had a single round. The voters elected 199 MPs instead of the previous 386 lawmakers.[3][4]
Fidesz – Hungarian Civic Alliance is a national-conservative, right-wing populist political party in Hungary.
The Christian Democratic People's Party is a Christian-democratic political party in Hungary. It is officially a coalition partner of the ruling party, Fidesz, but is in reality a satellite party of Fidesz and has been unable to get into the Parliament on its own since 2006. For several elections prior to the pact, they had been unable to pass the election threshold of 5% of the vote. Without Fidesz, its support cannot be measured, and even a leading Fidesz politician, János Lázár, stated that Fidesz does not consider the government to be a coalition government.
After the 2010 parliamentary election, Fidesz won a landslide victory, with Viktor Orbán being elected as Prime Minister. As a result of this election, his government was able to alter the National Constitution, as he garnered a two-thirds majority.[5] The government was able to write a constitutional article that favored traditional marriages, as well as one that lowered the number of MPs elected from 386 to 199.[6]
Viktor Mihály Orbán is a Hungarian politician serving as Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010. He also served as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002. He is the present leader of the national conservative Fidesz party, a post he has held since 2003 and, previously, from 1993 to 2000.
The Fundamental Law of Hungary, the country's constitution, was adopted by Parliament on 18 April 2011, promulgated by the President a week later and entered into force on 1 January 2012. It is Hungary's first constitution adopted within a democratic framework and following free elections.
Orbán and his government remained relatively popular in the months leading to the election. This was largely because of high GDP growth, increased industrial output, and a growth in the tourism sector.[7]
New constitution and electoral law
In 2010, a new government led by Fidesz initiated a drafting process for a new constitution.[8][9] On 18 April 2011, parliament approved the constitution on a 262–44 vote, with Fidesz and their Christian Democrat coalition partners in favor and Jobbik opposed. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and Politics Can Be Different (LMP), citing the ruling party's unwillingness to compromise on issues and their inability to change the outcome, boycotted both the drafting process and the vote.[10][11] On 25 April, PresidentPál Schmitt signed the document into law, and it entered into force on the first day of 2012.[12] The enactment came halfway through Hungary's six-month Presidency of the Council of the European Union.[13]
The Movement for a Better Hungary, commonly known as Jobbik, is a Hungarian political party with radical and nationalist roots. At its beginnings the party described itself as "a principled, conservative and radically patriotic Christian party", whose "fundamental purpose" is the protection of "Hungarian values and interests." The party has been described as an "anti-Semitic organization" by The Independent and a "neo-Nazi party" by the president of the European Jewish Congress. Philosopher Ágnes Heller, a Holocaust survivor, says that Jobbik has never been a neo-Nazi party, although she described them as far-right and racist.
The Hungarian Socialist Party, known mostly by its acronym MSZP, is a social-democratic political party in Hungary.
Politics Can Be Different is a green political party in Hungary. Founded in 2009, it was one of four parties to win seats in the National Assembly in the 2010 parliamentary election. The party is a member of the European Green Party.
A new electoral law was also passed on 23 December 2011. The Fidesz and its coalition partner Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) unilaterally approved the new bill, using their two-thirds majority, ignoring the left-wing opposition's (MSZP and LMP) protests, while Jobbik voted against it. The NGO Political Capital noted in its analysis that the newly-adopted law "shifts the election system towards the majoritarian principle", which may be the cause of possible future "disproportional" outcomes in favour of individual parliamentary seats, resulting an emergence of voting method like first-past-the-post voting (FPTP). Nevertheless, Political Capital also emphasized that this tendency "however [can] not be interpreted as an injury to democracy."[14]
A first-past-the-post electoral system is one in which voters indicate on a ballot the candidate of their choice, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins. This is sometimes described as winner takes all. First-past-the-post voting is a plurality voting method. FPTP is a common, but not universal, feature of electoral systems with single-member electoral divisions, and is practiced in close to one third of countries. Notable examples include Canada, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as most of their current or former colonies and protectorates.
Voter registration plan
On 26 November 2012, Fidesz used its supermajority to pass legislation revising eligibility for voting. Accordingly, the citizens, who had to right to vote, should have been involved in a pre-registration process no later than 15 days before polling day "in order to spare politically indifferent citizens from the election campaign", as Fidesz officials said. According to critics, this process would have made it harder to vote the party out of power, while also threatened free suffrage with the determination of the time limit.[15] Four members of the Democratic Coalition (DK), including its leader, former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, had participated in a week-long hunger strike, protesting against the proposed voter registration plan, while President János Áder, who took the office after the resignation of Schmitt and himself was also a Fidesz member, sent the bill to the Constitutional Court.[16]
The Democratic Coalition is a social-liberal political party in Hungary led by former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány. Founded in 2010 as a faction within the Socialist Party (MSZP), the Democratic Coalition split from the MSZP on 22 October 2011 and became a separate party. It has nine MPs in the National Assembly and two MEPs in the European Parliament.
Ferenc Gyurcsány is a Hungarian entrepreneur and politician. He was Prime Minister of Hungary from 2004 to 2009. Prior to that, he served as Minister of Youth Affairs and Sports between 2003 and 2004.
A hunger strike is a method of non-violent resistance or pressure in which participants fast as an act of political protest, or to provoke feelings of guilt in others, usually with the objective to achieve a specific goal, such as a policy change. Most hunger strikers will take liquids but not solid food.
On 3 January 2013, the Court ruled that the law curtailed voting rights to an "unjustifiable degree", due to the fact that the requirement for voters to register prior to going to the polls applies to every voter. The court also argued the limitation of campaign advertisings into the public broadcasting (Magyar Televízió and its partners), the proposed bans of political advertisements on cinemas during the campaign as well as prohibition of opinion polls in the last six days of the campaign "threatens" the freedom of speech in Hungary, in addition to its unconstitutional nature.[17] After the court's decision the head of the Fidesz parliamentary group, Antal Rogán, announced his party "would drop the proposal" and they will not introduce it for the 2014 parliamentary election, despite the fact that some party members had considered just before the court's ruling that is possible that constitutional amendments can take place in order to pass the bill.[18]
After the 2010 local elections, held on 3 October, Katalin Szili, former Speaker of the National Assembly founded the Social Union party and became its first chairperson. As a result, she quit the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and the party's parliamentary group, continuing her work as a formally independent MP.[19] In October 2011, a group of members of the MSZP around former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány left the party and founded the Democratic Coalition (DK) after one year of tension and disagreement. Ten members of the parliament, including Gyurcsány, also left the MSZP parliamentary group and became independent MPs. Gyurcsány said the cause of secession was that the MSZP "had failed in its efforts to transform itself". His former Socialist colleagues strongly condemned his step, as Gyurcsány signed a statement not to quit the party, swearing allegiance to the new party leadership just one week before leaving. At the introduction of his new movement, Gyurcsány called the new constitution as "illegitimate", and charged that all branches of power such as the Constitutional Court, Chief Prosecutor Péter Polt and other units of the judicial system "exclusively serve Viktor Orbán".[20]
Since its establishment and 2010 national election, LMP was kept under pressure (for instance, on the occasion of by-elections) by the Hungarian Socialist Party to achieve some kind of electoral compromise and cooperation against Viktor Orbán's government. The leadership of the LMP positioned the party to the centre, and, as a newcomer, rejected both Fidesz and MSZP's politics. Prominent party member András Schiffer also criticized the previous Socialist cabinets, blaming Gyurcsány's "disastrous governance" for Fidesz winning a two-thirds majority in 2010.[21] However prominent politicians in LMP were divided on the issue of cooperation.[22] During the party's congress in November 2012, LMP decided not to join Together 2014, the planned electoral alliance of opposition parties and movements led by Gordon Bajnai. As a result, Benedek Jávor, a proponent of the agreement, resigned from his position of parliamentary group leader.[23] Jávor and his supporters (including Tímea Szabó and Gergely Karácsony) founded a platform within the party, called "Dialogue for Hungary" on 26 November 2012. The platform argued in favour of conclusion of an electoral agreement with Bajnai's movement in order to replace "Orbán's regime".[24] In January 2013, the LMP's congress rejected again the electoral cooperation with other opposition parties, including Together 2014.[25] As a result, members of the party's "Dialogue for Hungary" platform left LMP to form a new political organization. Benedek Jávor announced the eight leaving MPs would not resign from their parliamentary seats, while seven parliamentarians (Schiffer's supporters) remained in the party.[26] The leaving MPs founded the Dialogue for Hungary as an officially registered party in March 2013.[27] On 8 March 2013, the PM established an electoral coalition with the Together, which was formed as a political party on that day.[28]
In January 2013, two independent MPs who were elected from the Jobbik's national list but were expelled or resigned from the party earlier (Zsolt Endrésik and Ernő Rozgonyi) announced that they would henceforth represent the Hungarian Justice and Life Party (MIÉP) in the National Assembly. MIÉP had parliamentary representation the last time in 2002.[29][30]
Opposition cooperation negotiations
Gordon Bajnai, who served as Prime Minister between 2009 and 2010, preceding Orbán, announced his return to politics on 23 October 2012, during the anti-government demonstration of the One Million for Press Freedom (Milla) non-governmental organization.[31] On the protest, he called for an anti-Orbán coalition so as to form a supermajority in Parliament with the help of which the changes done by Orbán's ruling party, Fidesz could be undone.
In his speech, Bajnai repeatedly used a variant of the term ("We may fail on our own, but together, we shall prove victorious!"),[32] when he proclaimed his support for such a "cooperation between hopeful left-wingers, disappointed rightwingers, politically abandoned free-thinkers and committed Greens" that his organization along with two other civilian body named Together 2014 as a reference to the date of the next general elections in Hungary.[33] In December 2012, Bajnai announced that he intends to become a Member of Parliament in the 2014 national election.[34] Medián polled 22 then 16 percent for the first time to the Together movement among the "certain" voters in their two November surveys. Several scholars criticized the Medián's questioning method which was different from previous ones, suspecting a political intent behind the surveys.[35]
According to plans, Together 2014 would have been an umbrella organization of centre-left parties, similar to the Olive Tree in Italy which established against Silvio Berlusconi's right-wing coalition in 1995. However LMP had rejected the cooperation in November 2012[36] and January 2013,[37] and the Socialists led by Attila Mesterházy gradually took over the initiative. Consequently, the Together movement transformed itself into party on 8 March 2013, as only parties could take part in the election according to the rules.[38] On the same day, the Dialogue for Hungary, which was founded by deserters from the LMP, has established an electoral coalition with the Together.[28]
2013 agreement
In late August 2013, Socialist and Together party leaders agreed to nominate joint individual candidates in each constituency, but would register separate national lists for the upcoming parliamentary election. To avoid the escalation of personal conflicts of interest, they decided not to appoint a joint candidate for the position of Prime Minister; it was announced that party leader, whose party would become the strongest government force following the election, will automatically gain the office. Socialist leader Attila Mesterházy told public television M1 that the electoral alliance between the MSZP and the E14–PM on fielding a single centre-left candidate in each individual constituency provides the right basis for success. Mesterházy and Bajnai agreed MSZP will field candidates in 75 out of all the country's 106 individual constituencies and the E14–PM in the remaining 31.[39] The agreement was sharply criticised by the Democratic Coalition, which was excluded from the cooperation. Gyurcsány called it as a "failure" and said that party leaders Mesterházy and Bajnai "spoofed themselves, us and, finally, the democratic Hungary".[40] Fidesz spokesman Péter Hoppál said this agreement showed that the opposition parties were unable to learn from their own past mistakes. "They were fired by the majority of voters [in 2010] not because they were leftists but because they placed their personal ambitions above the interests of the country", he added.[41]
In September 2013, the Socialist Party declined to sign an election deal with the Democratic Coalition and Gábor Fodor's Hungarian Liberal Party because "both parties presented excessive expectations compared to their social support", according to Attila Mesterházy. The party chairman told a forum held at the party HQ, broadcast by left-wing commercial news channel ATV, that in order to win next year's election, the Socialists need to win over uncertain voters. The party board declared that running with Gyurcsány, one of the most unpopular politicians, would keep uncertain voters away, he added. In response, Gyurcsány said the MSZP had proposed cooperation in four instead of nine constituencies, all of which were impossible to win. In addition they offered every 25th place on their party list and would have banned Gyurcsány himself from running either individually or on a list. Another request was that DK should not present a platform of its own, while nominating its candidates to the MSZP national list. The party could not accept these conditions, the politician said.[42]
Gordon Bajnai said on 6 January 2014, he plans to hold talks with Socialist Party on expanding and further developing an agreement between the opposition parties. "We must give back faith in victory to all those that want a change of government. We believe that this requires the closest cooperation, with the possibility of a joint list, between opposition forces with considerable public support. In order to achieve this, each participant must make sacrifices," the party said in a statement sent to MTI, quoting a recent television interview with Bajnai. This meant creating an opportunity to include DK in the electoral cooperation made the last year.[43] Following that the two parties began negotiations to expand their electoral agreement; "we should make every possible effort to oust Fidesz from power, and reach an agreement that would help canvas undecided voters", said Viktor Szigetvári, co-leader of the Together 2014. "There should be a single left-wing candidate in each of the 106 constituencies, and no vote cast on an opposition candidate should go lost", he added.[44]
The National Election Office announced that a total of 2,304 candidates submitted the required number of nominations for the parliamentary election by the 3 p.m. deadline on 4 March.[45] The candidacy of 1,531 people was accepted after completion of the registration process. The following table contains a selected list of numbers of individual candidates by county representation and party affiliation:
Under the new election law, parties which ran individual candidates in at least 27 constituencies in Budapest and at least nine counties had the opportunity to set up a national list. On 21 February 2014, the National Election Committee (NVB) registered at first[clarification needed] the joint list of the governing Fidesz–KDNP party alliance, led by PM Viktor Orbán and KDNP president Zsolt Semjén.[60]
Under the election law, the thirteen officially recognized national minorities are entitled to send minority spokespersons (Hungarian: nemzetiségi szószólók) to the National Assembly. They have the same rights as other parliamentarians to address the parliament, but are not entitled to vote. However the minorities could also each set up national lists. If any such national list reached the 5% electoral threshold from[clarification needed] minority votes, this would entitle them to full-fledged[clarification needed] representatives.[67]
The Polish minority list was the first minority list to be successfully registered by the National Election Committee (NVB), on 25 February 2014. Two days later, on 27 February, the NVB registered three other national lists: those for the German, Rusyn and Serb minorities,[67] and then approved the lists of Armenians and Romanians on 1 March,[68]Bulgarians and Slovaks on 3 March, Croats, Ukrainians and Romani people on 4 March, and, finally, Greeks and Slovenes on 7 March.[69]
The officially recognized minority self-government organizations received a total of 298.5 million Ft (EUR 954,000) of public support for campaign activity. The National Roma Council was awarded a significant portion of the funds – altogether 101 million forints – while the Bulgarians granted the lowest amount (8.4 million), according to official demographic ratios.[70]
Opinion polls
This chart illustrates the level of support for the Hungarian government party Fidesz among all eligible voters, as measured by the five polling institutions regularly conducting polling in Hungary, over the year 2013. Since many eligible Hungarian voters expressed no preference for any political party at all, these numbers are significantly lower than those for Fidesz support among decided voters.This chart illustrates the level of support for the Hungarian government party Fidesz among decided voters, as measured by the five polling institutions regularly conducting polling in Hungary, over the year 2013. Please note the information in the footnotes about the selection and calculation of the Medián and Nézőpont numbers.
Methodological note: The Hungarian pollsters generally release separate data on the support of political parties among all eligible voters (which tends to include a high percentage for "don't know/no preference"), and on the support of political parties among "active" or "certain" voters. The table below refers to the latter data.[lower-alpha 1]
Support for the main Hungarian political parties among decided voters, as measured by the five regular polling institutions. Please note the clarifications about the selection and calculation of the Medián and Nézőpont data, and the calculation of the Unity average for the first month.
Fidesz's leader Viktor Orbán celebrated in Budapest with thousands of supporters in the evening and said that Hungary was on the threshold of a "new and wonderful epoch".
Jobbik leader Gábor Vona said that the party is now the "strongest national radical party" in the EU, as well as Hungary’s second largest political party". Jobbik continuously increases it popularity and ahead of the European parliament elections it is important to make this clear. [Yet even though] we outperformed pollsters’ expectations, but we were not able to achieve the goal we set for ourselves of winning the elections".
One of the five party alliance's leaders, Gordon Bajnai, said the result was a "crushing defeat" and a "great disappointment" for those who wanted change.[72]
International
The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights Limited Election Observation Mission found that the elections were "efficiently administered and offered voters a diverse choice following an inclusive candidate registration process" but that Fidesz "enjoyed an undue advantage because of restrictive campaign regulations, biased media coverage and campaign activities that blurred the separation between political party and the State".[73]
↑ In addition, confusingly, two pollsters even publish parallel data on "active" or "certain" voters. Thus, Medián publishes different numbers for the categories of "választani tudók" and "választani tudó "biztos" szavazók", though they do not tend to differ much – the data in the table here generally refers to the latter. Tárki's polling releases always highlight results about "A pártok támogatottsága a pártválasztók körében", and those are included in the table here (and can be reviewed further back into time in this database on their website), but their website also provides a separate database with somewhat different polling data on "A pártok támogatottságának alakulása a biztos szavazó pártválasztók körében". Finally, in February 2013 Nézőpont switched to a system in which it distinguishes between "the entire population" and "active voters", but even the "active voters" sample always includes a percentage of those who are "undecided but favour a change in government" and a percentage of those who are "undecided altogether". Those numbers are given in the footnotes for each Nézőpont poll in the table.
↑ This poll has 20% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 10% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 17% undecideds, of which 9% fully undecided and 8% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 15% undecideds, of which 6% fully undecided and 9% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 13% undecideds, of which 6% fully undecided and 7% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 20.6% undecideds, of which 11.6% fully undecided and 9% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 26% undecideds, of which 12% fully undecided and 14% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has a separate share of undecideds, which Nézőpont usually breaks down between those fully undecided and those undecided but in favour of a change in government. This month that data does not appear to have been published though, but a total of 26% must have fallen in those two categories or expressed support for DK or the smallest parties ("Others").
↑ This poll has 17% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 7% undecided but in favour of a change in government. In addition, this time the Nézőpont poll also provides data for "potenciális szavazók", which add up to 100%, leaving no number of undecided voters. The proportions are substantively different in this data, to the advantage of the MSzP: Fidesz 44%, MSzP 25%, Jobbik 14%, LMP 6%, DK 3%, E2014 7%.
↑ This poll has 18% undecideds, of which 10% fully undecided and 8% undecided but in favour of a change in government. In addition, this time the Nézopont poll also provides data for "potenciális szavazók", which add up to 100%, leaving no number of undecided voters. The proportions are substantively different in this data, to the advantage of the MSzP and E2014: Fidesz 42%, MSzP 23%, Jobbik 13%, LMP 6%, DK 4%, E2014 10%, Others 2%.
↑ This poll has 21% undecideds, of which 16% fully undecided and 5% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 14% undecideds, of which 12% fully undecided and 2% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll has 14% undecideds, of which 9% fully undecided and 5% undecided but in favour of a change in government.
↑ This poll had 20% undecideds, of which 13% were fully undecided and 7% were undecided but in favour of a change in government. The figures presented represent decided voters.
↑ This poll had 19% undecideds, of which 13% were fully undecided and 6% undecided but in favour of a change in government. The figures presented represent decided voters.
↑ This polling data does not include the "active voters" category which Nezopont used (and this table reflected) since February 2013. It only has data for "the entire population", with 27% undecideds and non-voters, and for "potential voters", with no undecideds at all. This table therefore uses the latter data.
↑ In addition to this polling data for decided voters, Ipsos provided a forecast for the election results: Fidesz/KDNP 40-45%; Unity 26-31%; Jobbik 19-23%; LMP 4-6%.
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