Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010

Last updated • 6 min readFrom Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia
Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010
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  Mark Dayton official photo.jpg Tom Emmer official portrait 114th Congress (cropped 2).jpg No image.svg
Nominee Mark Dayton Tom Emmer Tom Horner
Party DFL Republican Independence
Running mate Yvonne Prettner Solon Annette Meeks Jim Mulder
Popular vote919,232910,462251,487
Percentage43.6%43.2%11.9%
MinnesotaGubernational2010.svg
County Results

Dayton:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%

Emmer:     40–50%     50–60%
Governor before election

Tim Pawlenty
Republican

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
DFL

The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R – Delano), former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected governor. [1]

Contents

Background

The 2010 gubernatorial election saw an exceptionally large field of candidates seeking endorsement from each party's respective convention. In the DFL and the Independence Parties there were protracted primary fights that extended into August. The state's three major parties participated in the general election along with four minor parties.

Republican primary

After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term, [2] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each. [3] [4]

Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits. [5] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor. [6]

On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor. [7]

Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot. [8]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Republican primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Emmer107,55882.5
Republican Bob Carney Jr.9,8567.6
Republican Leslie Davis8,5986.6
Republican Ole Savior4,3963.4
Total votes130,408100

DFL primary

The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support. [32] [33]

Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.

On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher. [34] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.

Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration. [35] On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator. [36] On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor. [37]

Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee. [38] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21. [39]

Candidates

Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate, 2009 Mark Dayton DFL Gubernatorial Debate.jpg
Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate, 2009

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredMark DaytonMatt EntenzaMargaret Anderson KelliherUndecidedSampling error
Survey USA August 2–4, 201043%22%27%8%4.5%
Minnesota Poll July 26–29, 201040%17%30%13%7.3%
Survey USA June 14–16, 201039%22%26%11%4.5%
Humphrey Institute / MPR May 13–16, 201038%6%28%28%8.75%

Results

At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DFL Mark Dayton182,73841.3
DFL Margaret Anderson Kelliher175,76739.8
DFL Matt Entenza80,50918.2
DFL Peter Idusogie3,1230.7
Total votes442,137100

Independence primary

On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary. [51]

Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot. [8]

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Independence Party primary results [60]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independence Tom Horner11,38064.2
Independence Rob Hahn2,53814.3
Independence John T. Uldrich1,76610.0
Independence Phile Ratté1,2157.0
Independence Rahn V. Workcuff8154.5
Total votes17,714100

General election

Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided. [61] [62] [63] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead. [64] The nonpartisan Cook Political Report , CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup, [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%. [70]

Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes (0.42%). [71] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned. [72]

Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles. [73]

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredTom Emmer (R)Mark Dayton (DFL)Tom Horner (I)UndecidedSampling error
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 201040%43%15%3%2.2%
SurveyUSA October 24–27, 201038%39%13%9%4%
Minnesota Public Radio October 21–25, 201029%41%11%20%3.6%
St. Cloud State University October 10–21, 201030%40%19%10%5.0%
Minnesota Poll October 18–21, 201034%41%13%12%3.9%
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 201041%44%10%5%4.0%
Survey USA October 11–13, 201037%42%14%7%3.7%
Rasmussen Reports October 6, 201038%40%15%7%4%
Humphrey Institute/MPR September 22–26, 201027%38%16%19%3.6%
Minnesota Poll September 20–23, 201030%39%18%13%4.1%
Rasmussen Reports September 22, 201042%41%9%2%4%
Survey USA September 12–14, 201036%38%18%4%3.9%
Humphrey Institute/MPR August 31, 201034%34%13%19%3.6 – 5.3%
Rasmussen Reports August 12, 201036%45%10%10%4.0%
Survey USA August 2–4, 201032%46%9%13%2.7%
Minnesota Poll July 26–29, 201030%40%13%17%4.3%
Rasmussen Reports July 19, 201036%40%10%14%4.5%
Survey USA June 14–16, 201035%38%12%15%2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd. May 28 – June 2, 201028%40%18%14%3.5%
Rasmussen Reports May 24, 201037%35%12%16%4.5%
Humphrey Institute/MPR May 13–16, 201031%35%9%25%5.8%
Survey USA May 3–5, 201042%34%9%15%4.1%
Rasmussen Reports March 10, 201035%38%7%20%3%

Results

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota [71]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
DFL Mark Dayton 919,232 43.63%-2.07%
Republican Tom Emmer 910,46243.21%-3.49%
Independence Tom Horner 251,48711.94%+5.54%
Grassroots Chris Wright7,5160.36%n/a
Green Farheen Hakeem6,1880.29%-0.21%
Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6,1800.29%n/a
Resource PartyLinda Eno4,0920.19%n/a
Write-ins1,8640.09%
Total votes2,106,979100
DFL gain from Republican

Ballot recount

Certified Results After Recount

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota [71]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
DFL Mark Dayton / Yvonne Prettner Solon 919,232 43.63%-2.07%
Republican Tom Emmer/Annette Meeks 910,46243.21%-3.49%
Independence Tom Horner/Jim Mulder251,48711.94%+5.54%
Grassroots Chris Wright7,5160.36%n/a
Green Farheen Hakeem6,1880.29%-0.21%
Ecology Democracy Ken Pentel 6,1800.29%n/a
Resource PartyLinda Eno4,0920.19%n/a
Write-ins1,8640.09%
Total votes2,106,979100
DFL gain from Republican
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010 2010recountMinnesota.jpg
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010

The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court. [74] The vote totals were not significantly changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.

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  31. 1 2 "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
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  33. ↑ Post your comment: Title (Optional) Your comments: (2010-02-03). "Caucus night: Seifert wins GOP poll, DFLers vote Rybak". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
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  35. 1 2 Doug Grow (2010-05-21). "Kelliher takes a calculated risk with choice of John Gunyou as running mate". MinnPost. Retrieved 2010-05-22.
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  37. 1 2 "Entenza chooses Robinson as his running mate". StarTribune.com. 2010-05-27. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
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  52. ↑ Tim Pugmire (January 14, 2010). "Rob Hahn, publisher, joins gov race for Independence Party".
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  71. 1 2 3 "Minnesota Secretary of State's Office, Retrieved, November 3, 2010". Electionresults.sos.state.mn.us. 1997-02-26. Archived from the original on November 6, 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
  72. ↑ "Prelude to a recount". Politics in Minnesota. 2010-11-03. Retrieved 2010-11-03.
  73. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (December 6, 2013). "Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice?". Smart Politics.
  74. ↑ http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hrd/pubs/ss/ssrecount.htm Minnesota House of Representatives, Retrieved, November 3, 2010.
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