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Results by county
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The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st Governor of Minnesota as incumbent governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was congressman Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district while the Republicans nominated Hennepin County comissioner Jeff Johnson. The Independence Party of Minnesota didn't field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election the polls showed Walz ahead and the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.
The Governor of Minnesota is the chief executive of the U.S. state of Minnesota, leading the state's executive branch. Forty people have been governor of Minnesota, though historically there were also three governors of Minnesota Territory. Alexander Ramsey, the first territorial governor, also served as state governor several years later. State governors are elected to office by popular vote, but territorial governors were appointed to the office by the United States president. The current governor of Minnesota is Tim Walz of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL).
Mark Brandt Dayton is an American politician who served as the 40th governor of Minnesota from 2011 to 2019. He was a United States Senator for Minnesota from 2001 to 2007, and the Minnesota State Auditor from 1991 to 1995. He is a member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), which affiliates with the national Democratic Party.
Timothy James Walz is an American politician who is the 41st governor of Minnesota, serving since January 2019. A member of the Democratic Farmer-Labor Party, he served as the U.S. Representative for Minnesota's 1st congressional district from 2007 to 2019. The district comprises the state's southern end, running along the entire border with Iowa; it includes Rochester, Austin, Winona and Mankato.
In the end, Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986. His victory also means that Minnesota will have its longest streak of Democrats in the Governor's mansion in the state's history, at 12 continuous years.
The United States House of Representatives is the lower chamber of the United States Congress, the Senate being the upper chamber. Together they compose the legislature of the United States.
Peggy Flanagan is the 50th and current lieutenant governor of Minnesota. Her election on November 6, 2018, made her the second Native American woman to ever be elected to statewide executive office in U.S. history. She served as a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2015 to 2019. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), she represented District 46A in the western Twin Cities metropolitan area. A member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe she joined fellow DFLer Susan Allen, and Republican Steve Green, an enrolled member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe as the only other Natives in the Minnesota State House.
The Minnesota House of Representatives is the lower house of the Legislature of the U.S. state of Minnesota. There are 134 members, exactly twice as many as the Minnesota Senate. Floor sessions are held in the north wing of the State Capitol in Saint Paul. Offices for members and staff, as well as most committee hearings, are located in the nearby State Office Building.
Erin Murphy is an American politician and a former Majority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), she represented District 64A, which included the Summit Hill neighborhood of the city of Saint Paul in Ramsey County in the Twin Cities metropolitan area. She is a former executive director of the Minnesota Nurses Association and is a registered nurse.
Erin Maye Quade is an American politician and former Democratic–Farmer–Labor (DFL) member of the Minnesota House of Representatives. She was the DFL-endorsed candidate for lieutenant governor as Erin Murphy's running mate in 2018, and the first LGBTQ person to be endorsed on the ticket of a major Minnesota political party.
A perennial candidate is a political candidate who frequently runs for an elected office but seldom wins. The term is not generally extended to incumbent politicians who successfully defend their seats repeatedly.
Erin Murphy (DFL) |
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Unions State elected officials
Local officials
State leaders
DFL constituency caucuses
National organizations State organizations
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Rebecca Otto (DFL) |
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State Elected Officials
DFL constituency caucuses
Organizations
National leaders
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Lori Swanson (DFL) |
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Tim Walz (DFL) |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Erin Murphy | Lori Swanson | Tim Walz | Other | Undecided |
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Emerson College | August 8–11, 2018 | 217 | ± 6.9% | 19% | 29% | 28% | – | 24% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 439 | ± 5.6% | 11% | 28% | 24% | 1% | 37% |
GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC) | June 25–27, 2018 | 602 | – | 17% | 37% | 29% | 1% [53] | 16% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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On February 6, 2018 the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party’s Senate district and county conventions, which in turn will elect state convention delegates who will endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates will endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).
Congressional Unit | Total attendance | Chris Coleman | Tina Liebling | Erin Murphy | Rebecca Otto | Paul Thissen | Tim Walz | Other | Uncommitted |
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1 | 2577 | 71 | 355 | 107 | 232 | 56 | 1558 | 4 | 163 |
2 | 3501 | 384 | 202 | 411 | 656 | 120 | 1156 | 4 | 523 |
3 | 4291 | 670 | 202 | 386 | 827 | 186 | 1362 | 8 | 530 |
4 | 6072 | 854 | 297 | 1111 | 1227 | 139 | 1384 | 11 | 897 |
5 | 9519 | 1019 | 457 | 1400 | 1462 | 537 | 2363 | 30 | 1137 |
6 | 2375 | 326 | 115 | 294 | 587 | 59 | 590 | 4 | 375 |
7 | 2121 | 124 | 106 | 274 | 405 | 172 | 761 | 4 | 273 |
8 | 3873 | 441 | 277 | 474 | 1082 | 263 | 759 | 8 | 527 |
Statewide | 34329 | 3889 | 2011 | 4457 | 6478 | 1532 | 9933 | 73 | 4425 |
Percent | - | 11.86% | 6.13% | 13.59% | 19.75% | 4.67% | 30.29% | 0.22% | 13.49% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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DFL | Tim Walz | 242,832 | 41.60% | |
DFL | Erin Murphy | 186,969 | 32.03% | |
DFL | Lori Swanson | 143,517 | 24.59% | |
DFL | Tim Holden | 6,398 | 1.10% | |
DFL | Olé Savior | 4,019 | 0.69% | |
Total votes | 583,735 | 100% |
Tim Pawlenty |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jeff Johnson | Matt Kruse | Tim Pawlenty | Other | Undecided |
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Emerson College | August 8–11, 2018 | 156 | ± 8.0% | 34% | – | 43% | – | 23% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 340 | ± 6.4% | 32% | – | 51% | 1% | 16% |
BK Strategies (R) | June 24–25, 2018 | 439 | ± 4.7% | 20% | 3% | 54% | – | 23% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
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Republican | Jeff Johnson | 168,841 | 52.61% | |
Republican | Tim Pawlenty | 140,743 | 43.86% | |
Republican | Mathew Kruse | 11,330 | 3.53% | |
Total votes | 320,914 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
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The Cook Political Report [97] | Likely DFL | October 5, 2018 |
The Washington Post [98] | Lean DFL | October 16, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [99] | Likely DFL | October 17, 2018 |
Inside Elections [100] | Likely DFL | October 12, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [101] | Lean DFL | October 11, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [102] | Lean DFL | October 12, 2018 |
Daily Kos [103] | Lean DFL | October 5, 2018 |
Fox News [104] [lower-alpha 1] | Lean DFL | October 12, 2018 |
Politico [105] | Likely DFL | October 12, 2018 |
Governing [106] | Lean DFL | October 2, 2018 |
The debate season began only three days after the primaries with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held Friday, August 31. [107] [108]
Host network/sponsors | Date | Link(s) | Participants | ||
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Tim Walz (DFL) | Jeff Johnson (R) | ||||
MPR News | August 31, 2018 | [109] | Invited | Invited | |
KSTP-TV | August 17, 2018 | [110] | Invited | Invited | |
Twin Cities PBS (Almanac) | August 17, 2018 | [111] | Invited | Invited |
Jeff Johnson (R) |
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Tim Walz (DFL) |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tim Walz (D) | Jeff Johnson (R) | Josh Welter (L) | Other | Undecided |
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Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 953 | – | 53% | 41% | 2% | 2% [134] | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 1% | 9% |
SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 5.3% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | October 15–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 39% | 3% | 2% [135] | 12% |
Change Research | October 12–13, 2018 | 1,413 | – | 47% | 44% | 3% | 4% [136] | 2% |
Marist College | September 30 – October 4, 2018 | 637 LV | ± 4.9% | 51% | 36% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
55% | 38% | – | <1% | 7% | ||||
860 RV | ± 4.2% | 49% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
53% | 39% | – | 1% | 8% | ||||
Mason-Dixon | September 10–12, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | 1% | 2% [137] | 16% |
SurveyUSA | September 6–8, 2018 | 574 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 40% | – | 3% | 10% |
Suffolk University | August 17–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 1% [138] | 12% |
Emerson College | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 33% | – | – | 27% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ± | |
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DFL | Tim Walz/Peggy Flanagan | 1,393,053 | 53.84% | +3.77% | |
Republican | Jeff Johnson/Donna Bergstrom | 1,097,689 | 42.43% | -2.08% | |
Grassroots | Chris Wright/Judith Schwartzbacker | 68,664 | 2.65% | +1.07% | |
Libertarian | Josh Welter/Mary O'Connor | 26,735 | 1.03% | +0.11% | |
n/a | Write-ins | 1,086 | 0.04% | 0.00% | |
Total votes | 2,587,227 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
DFL hold |
Demographic subgroup | Walz | Johnson | No Answer | % of Voters |
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Gender | ||||
Men | 48 | 51 | 1 | 46 |
Women | 61 | 37 | 2 | 54 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 71 | 25 | 4 | 6 |
25–29 years old | 54 | 44 | 2 | 5 |
30–39 years old | 60 | 38 | 2 | 12 |
40–49 years old | 51 | 46 | 3 | 13 |
50–64 years old | 54 | 45 | 1 | 29 |
65 and older | 54 | 46 | N/A | 35 |
Race | ||||
White | 53 | 46 | 1 | 89 |
Black | 84 | 14 | 2 | 5 |
Latino | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 46 | 53 | 1 | 41 |
White women | 59 | 39 | 2 | 48 |
Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 53 | 46 | 1 | 17 |
Some college education | 49 | 50 | 1 | 24 |
Associate degree | 49 | 50 | 1 | 17 |
Bachelor's degree | 58 | 40 | 2 | 26 |
Advanced degree | 71 | 28 | 1 | 16 |
Education and race | ||||
White college graduates | 62 | 36 | 2 | 38 |
White no college degree | 47 | 52 | 1 | 51 |
Non-white college graduates | 70 | 26 | 4 | 4 |
Non-white no college degree | 74 | 23 | 3 | 7 |
Whites by education and gender | ||||
White women with college degrees | 69 | 30 | 1 | 21 |
White women without college degrees | 52 | 46 | 2 | 28 |
White men with college degrees | 55 | 44 | 1 | 17 |
White men without college degrees | 41 | 59 | N/A | 23 |
Non-whites | 73 | 24 | 3 | 11 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 63 | 34 | 3 | 14 |
$30,000–49,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 21 |
$50,000–99,999 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 36 |
$100,000–199,999 | 55 | 42 | 3 | 23 |
Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 95 | 5 | N/A | 39 |
Republicans | 10 | 90 | N/A | 32 |
Independents | 53 | 44 | 3 | 28 |
Party by gender | ||||
Democratic men | 94 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
Democratic women | 95 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
Republican men | 8 | 92 | N/A | 16 |
Republican women | 12 | 88 | N/A | 17 |
Independent men | 48 | 50 | 2 | 16 |
Independent women | 60 | 36 | 4 | 13 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 95 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
Moderates | 66 | 33 | 1 | 39 |
Conservatives | 11 | 88 | 1 | 33 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 48 | 50 | 2 | 68 |
Unmarried | 64 | 34 | 2 | 32 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 44 | 55 | 1 | 31 |
Married women | 52 | 46 | 2 | 36 |
Unmarried men | 52 | 44 | 4 | 15 |
Unmarried women | 73 | 25 | 2 | 18 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 52 | 46 | 2 | 12 |
No | 59 | 41 | N/A | 88 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Health care | 74 | 24 | 2 | 50 |
Immigration | 20 | 79 | 1 | 22 |
Economy | 30 | 67 | 3 | 18 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 68 | 31 | 1 | 40 |
Suburban | 51 | 47 | 2 | 32 |
Rural | 42 | 57 | 1 | 28 |
Source: CNN [139] |
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...as both parties aim to replace Gov. Mark Dayton, who has said he won't seek a third term.
Gov. Mark Dayton — himself a former senator — isn't seeking a third term.