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A general circulation model (GCM) is a type of climate model. It employs a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. It uses the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources. These equations are the basis for computer programs used to simulate the Earth's atmosphere or oceans. Atmospheric and oceanic GCMs are key components along with sea ice and land-surface components.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC).
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Government. Until March 5, 2013 the Weather Prediction Center was known as the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). The Weather Prediction Center serves as a center for quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting, and the interpretation of numerical weather prediction computer models.
The MM5 is a regional mesoscale model used for creating weather forecasts and climate projections. It is a community model maintained by Penn State University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The MM5 is a limited-area, terrain-following sigma coordinate model that is used to replicate or forecast mesoscale and regional scale atmospheric circulation. It has been updated many times since the 1970s to fix bugs, adapt to new technologies, and work on different types of computers and software. It is used in many different ways: for research and for weather prediction. In research, it is used to compare it to other models, to see what works and what does not work. It is also used for air quality models.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.
The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is a United States Government agency, which improves numerical weather, marine and climate predictions at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), through a broad program of research in data assimilation and modeling. In support of the NCEP operational forecasting mission, the EMC develops, improves and monitors data assimilation systems and models of the atmosphere, ocean and coupled system, using advanced methods developed internally as well as cooperatively with scientists from universities, NOAA laboratories and other government agencies, and the international scientific community.
The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather research laboratory under the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research. It is one of seven NOAA Research Laboratories (RLs).
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The Deutscher Wetterdienst or DWD for short, is the German Meteorological Service, based in Offenbach am Main, Germany, which monitors weather and meteorological conditions over Germany and provides weather services for the general public and for nautical, aviational, hydrometeorological or agricultural purposes. It is attached to the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport. The DWDs principal tasks include warning against weather-related dangers and monitoring and rating climate changes affecting Germany. The organisation runs atmospheric models on their supercomputer for precise weather forecasting. The DWD also manages the national climate archive and one of the largest specialised libraries on weather and climate worldwide.
A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. Dynamical models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to calculate future weather conditions. Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.
In atmospheric science, an atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive, dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes, heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.
The Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) is a computer program that simulates the circulations of the Martian atmosphere at regional and local scales. MRAMS, developed by Scot Rafkin and Timothy Michaels, is derived from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed by William R. Cotton and Roger A. Pielke to study atmospheric circulations on the Earth.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. NWP refers to the simulation and prediction of the atmosphere with a computer model, and WRF is a set of software for this. WRF features two dynamical (computational) cores, a data assimilation system, and a software architecture allowing for parallel computation and system extensibility. The model serves a wide range of meteorological applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers.
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities, are related statistically to one or more predictors. The predictors are typically forecasts from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, climatic data, and, if applicable, recent surface observations. Thus, output from NWP models can be transformed by the MOS technique into sensible weather parameters that are familiar to a layperson.
The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM), often known as the CMC model in North America, is an integrated forecasting and data assimilation system developed in the Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN), Meteorological Research Branch (MRB), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). Along with the NWS's Global Forecast System (GFS), which runs out to 16 days, the ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System (IFS), which runs out 10 days, the Naval Research Laboratory Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), which runs out eight days, the UK Met Office's Unified Model, which runs out to seven days, and Deutscher Wetterdienst's ICON, which runs out to 7.5 days, it is one of the global medium-range models in general use.
The North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) is a numerical weather prediction model run by National Centers for Environmental Prediction for short-term weather forecasting. Currently, the Weather Research and Forecasting Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (WRF-NMM) model system serves as the dynamical core of the NAM model. The WRF replaced the Eta model on June 13, 2006. The NAM is run four times a day out to 84 hours, with 12 km horizontal resolution and with three-hour temporal resolution, providing finer detail than other operational forecast models. Its ensemble is known as the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and runs out 87 hours.
The quantitative precipitation forecast is the expected amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a specified area. A QPF will be created when precipitation amounts reaching a minimum threshold are expected during the forecast's valid period. Valid periods of precipitation forecasts are normally synoptic hours such as 00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 GMT. Terrain is considered in QPFs by use of topography or based upon climatological precipitation patterns from observations with fine detail. Starting in the mid-to-late 1990s, QPFs were used within hydrologic forecast models to simulate impact to rivers throughout the United States. Forecast models show significant sensitivity to humidity levels within the planetary boundary layer, or in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, which decreases with height. QPF can be generated on a quantitative, forecasting amounts, or a qualitative, forecasting the probability of a specific amount, basis. Radar imagery forecasting techniques show higher skill than model forecasts within 6 to 7 hours of the time of the radar image. The forecasts can be verified through use of rain gauge measurements, weather radar estimates, or a combination of both. Various skill scores can be determined to measure the value of the rainfall forecast.
Nowcasting is weather forecasting on a very short term mesoscale period of up to 2 hours, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and up to six hours, according to other authors in the field. This forecast is an extrapolation in time of known weather parameters, including those obtained by means of remote sensing, using techniques that take into account a possible evolution of the air mass. This type of forecast therefore includes details that cannot be solved by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models running over longer forecast periods.
The history of numerical weather prediction considers how current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather and future sea state has changed over the years. Though first attempted manually in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that computation time was reduced to less than the forecast period itself. ENIAC was used to create the first forecasts via computer in 1950, and over the years more powerful computers have been used to increase the size of initial datasets as well as include more complicated versions of the equations of motion. The development of global forecasting models led to the first climate models. The development of limited area (regional) models facilitated advances in forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclone as well as air quality in the 1970s and 1980s.
Meteoblue is a meteorological service created at the University of Basel, Switzerland. In 2006, Meteoblue was then founded as a spin-off company in order to serve customers especially in the area of agriculture as well as solar and wind power.
References
- ↑ NCEP Nested Grid Model Overview. National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters. Retrieved 2010-05-15.
- ↑ Explanation of Current NGM MOS. National Weather Service Meteorological Development Lab (1999). Retrieved 2010-05-15.
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