The 1938 New England Hurricane was one of the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclones to strike the United States. The storm formed near the coast of Africa on September 9, becoming a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale, before making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Long Island on Wednesday, September 21. It is estimated that the hurricane killed 682 people, damaged or destroyed more than 57,000 homes, and caused property losses estimated at $306 million. Multiple other sources, however, mention that the 1938 hurricane might have really been a more powerful Category 4, having winds similar to Hurricanes Hugo, Harvey, Frederic and Gracie when it ran through Long Island and New England. Also, numerous others estimate the real damage between $347 million and almost $410 million. Damaged trees and buildings were still seen in the affected areas as late as 1951. It remains the most powerful and deadliest hurricane in recorded New England history, perhaps eclipsed in landfall intensity only by the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635.
A storm surge, storm flood, tidal surge, or storm tide is a coastal flood or tsunami-like phenomenon of rising water commonly associated with low-pressure weather systems, such as cyclones. It is measured as the rise in water level above the normal tidal level, and does not include waves.
Hurricane Michelle was the fifth costliest tropical cyclone in Cuban history and the strongest hurricane of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The thirteenth named storm and seventh hurricane that year, Michelle developed from a tropical wave that had traversed into the western Caribbean Sea on October 29; the wave had initially moved off the coast of Africa 13 days prior. In its early developmental stages, the depression meandered over Nicaragua, later paralleling the Mosquito Coast before intensifying into tropical storm intensity on November 1; Michelle was upgraded to hurricane strength the following day. Shortly after, rapid intensification ensued within favorable conditions, with the storm's central barometric pressure dropping 51 mbar in 29 hours. After a slight fluctuation in strength, Michelle reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (230 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 933 mbar. This tied Michelle with 1999's Lenny as the fourth most powerful November hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, behind only the 1932 Cuba hurricane and 2020 Hurricanes Iota and Eta. At roughly the same time, the hurricane began to accelerate northeastward; this brought the intense hurricane to a Cuban landfall within the Bay of Pigs later that day. Crossing over the island, Michelle was weakened significantly, and was only a Category 1 hurricane upon reentry into the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane later transitioned into an extratropical cyclone over The Bahamas on November 5, before being absorbed by a cold front the following day.
Hurricane Fabian was a powerful Cape Verde hurricane that impacted Bermuda in early September during the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the sixth named storm, fourth hurricane, and first major hurricane of the season, developed from a tropical wave in the tropical Atlantic Ocean on August 25. It moved west-northwestward under the influence of the subtropical ridge to its north, and steadily strengthened in an area of warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear. The hurricane attained a peak intensity of 145 mph (233 km/h) on September 1, and it slowly weakened as it turned northward. On September 5, Fabian made a direct hit on Bermuda with wind speeds of over 120 mph (190 km/h). After passing the island, the hurricane turned to the northeast, and became extratropical on September 8, before dissipating two days later.
Hurricane Gloria was a powerful hurricane that caused significant damage along the east coast of the United States and in Atlantic Canada during the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season. It was the first significant tropical cyclone to strike the northeastern United States since Hurricane Agnes in 1972 and the first major storm to affect New York City and Long Island directly since Hurricane Donna in 1960. Gloria was a Cape Verde hurricane originating from a tropical wave on September 16 in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. After remaining a weak tropical cyclone for several days, Gloria intensified into a hurricane on September 22 north of the Lesser Antilles. During that time, the storm had moved generally westward, although it turned to the northwest due to a weakening of the ridge. Gloria quickly intensified on September 24, and the next day reached peak winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). The hurricane weakened before striking the Outer Banks of North Carolina on September 27. Later that day, Gloria made two subsequent landfalls on Long Island and across the coastline of western Connecticut, before becoming extratropical on September 28 over New England. The remnants moved through Atlantic Canada and went on to impact Western Europe, eventually dissipating on October 4.
Hurricane Ione was a strong, Category 4 hurricane that affected North Carolina in September 1955, bringing high winds and significant rainfall. It came on the heels of Hurricanes Connie and Diane, and compounded problems already caused by the two earlier hurricanes. Spawned by a tropical wave which left the African coast on September 6, the system became a tropical depression in the tropical North Atlantic, before turning northwest and developing into a hurricane. After turning back to the west east of the Bahamas, Ione turned northwest and northward, moving across eastern North Carolina before moving east-northeastward out to sea. Ione caused $600 million (2005 USD) in damage, much of it to crops across North Carolina. As a result of Ione's impacts seven people died.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.
The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635 brushed Virginia and then passed over southeastern New England in August. Accounts of the storm are very limited, but it was likely the most intense hurricane to hit New England since European colonization.
A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. Dynamical models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to calculate future weather conditions. Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.
Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) was launched in 2004 as a collaboration involving the State of North Carolina, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC-CH), Duke University, and North Carolina State University. RENCI is organizationally structured as a research institute within UNC-CH, and its main campus is located in Chapel Hill, NC, a few miles from the UNC-CH campus. RENCI has engagement centers at UNC-CH, Duke University (Durham), and North Carolina State University (Raleigh).
Hurricane Joyce caused minor impact in the ABC and Windward islands during late September and early October 2000. The fourteenth tropical cyclone, tenth named storm, and sixth hurricane of the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season, Joyce developed from a tropical wave located southwest of Cape Verde on September 25. Only twelve hours after becoming a cyclone, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Joyce early on September 26. Joyce continued to strengthen and became a hurricane by September 27. On the following day, Joyce peaked with winds of 90 mph (140 km/h) on September 28. After peak intensity on September 28, unfavorable conditions caused Joyce to become disorganized and weaken.
In fluid dynamics, wind wave modeling describes the effort to depict the sea state and predict the evolution of the energy of wind waves using numerical techniques. These simulations consider atmospheric wind forcing, nonlinear wave interactions, and frictional dissipation, and they output statistics describing wave heights, periods, and propagation directions for regional seas or global oceans. Such wave hindcasts and wave forecasts are extremely important for commercial interests on the high seas. For example, the shipping industry requires guidance for operational planning and tactical seakeeping purposes.
The history of numerical weather prediction considers how current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather and future sea state has changed over the years. Though first attempted manually in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of the computer and computer simulation that computation time was reduced to less than the forecast period itself. ENIAC was used to create the first forecasts via computer in 1950, and over the years more powerful computers have been used to increase the size of initial datasets as well as include more complicated versions of the equations of motion. The development of global forecasting models led to the first climate models. The development of limited area (regional) models facilitated advances in forecasting the tracks of tropical cyclone as well as air quality in the 1970s and 1980s.
Coastal flooding occurs when dry and low-lying land is submerged (flooded) by seawater. The range of a coastal flooding is a result of the elevation of floodwater that penetrates the inland which is controlled by the topography of the coastal land exposed to flooding. The seawater can flood the land via several different paths: direct flooding, overtopping of a barrier, or breaching of a barrier. Coastal flooding is largely a natural event. Due to the effects of climate change and an increase in the population living in coastal areas, the damage caused by coastal flood events has intensified and more people are being affected.
The following is a glossary of tropical cyclone terms.
Hurricane Sandy was the sixth-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record. It lasted for over a week in late October-early November 2012. Classified as the eighteenth named storm, tenth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the annual hurricane season, Sandy originated from a tropical wave on October 22. Performing a small loop over the central Caribbean Sea, the system intensified into a tropical storm a day later and became the final hurricane of the season before briefly coming ashore the coast of Jamaica on October 24. After emerging between Jamaica and Cuba, Sandy began a period of rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h). It made landfall at this intensity near Santiago de Cuba on October 25.
Marine weather forecasting is the process by which mariners and meteorological organizations attempt to forecast future weather conditions over the Earth's oceans. Mariners have had rules of thumb regarding the navigation around tropical cyclones for many years, dividing a storm into halves and sailing through the normally weaker and more navigable half of their circulation. Marine weather forecasts by various weather organizations can be traced back to the sinking of the Royal Charter in 1859 and the RMS Titanic in 1912.
Gerris is computer software in the field of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Gerris was released as free and open-source software, subject to the requirements of the GNU General Public License (GPL), version 2 or any later.
Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) is a free-surface, terrain-following, primitive equations ocean model widely used by the scientific community for a diverse range of applications. The model is developed and supported by researchers at the Rutgers University, University of California Los Angeles and contributors worldwide.
Wind setup, also known as wind effect or storm effect, refers to the rise in water level in seas or lakes caused by winds pushing the water in a specific direction. As the wind moves across the water's surface, it applies a shear stress to the water, prompting the formation of a wind-driven current. When this current encounters a shoreline, the water level along the shore increases, generating a hydrostatic counterforce in equilibrium with the shear force.
