Opinion polling for the 1979 Spanish general election

In the run up to the 1979 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the Constituent Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 15 June 1977, to the day the next election was held, on 1 March 1979.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Electoral polling

Nationwide polling

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							PNV		Lead
1979 general election	1 Mar 1979	—	68.0	34.8 168	30.4 121	10.8 23	6.1 9	[lower-alpha 1]	2.7 8	1.6 7	2.1 1	4.4
Government [1]	1 Mar 1979	?	?	34.6 168/172	29.8 114/118	10.8 25	5.5 8	[lower-alpha 1]	2.6 10	1.6 8	2.0 1	4.8
SFGPP/Ya [2]	26 Feb 1979	16,817	?	33.1 166	31.9 132	8.2 25	6.3 7	[lower-alpha 1]	–	? 8	–	1.2
Sofemasa/El País [lower-alpha 2] [3] [4] [5]	19–21 Feb 1979	16,869	77.7	32.9 153	35.0 140	11.0 22	6.3 9	[lower-alpha 1]	1.8 5	1.7 7	2.3 2	2.1
PSOE [6]	18 Feb 1979	?	65	28.0– 32.0	31.0– 35.0	–	–	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	–	3.0
Equipo Eidos/Europa Press [7]	12–14 Feb 1979	3,700	?	34.0 167	32.0 132	12.0 21	7.0 14	[lower-alpha 1]	2.9 7	1.6 7	–	2.0
RNC/ABC [lower-alpha 2] [8]	7 Feb 1979	2,999	73	30.6	32.3	12.9	11.3	[lower-alpha 1]	–	2.7	–	1.7
PSOE [6]	1 Feb 1979	?	65	27.0– 32.0	32.0– 37.0	–	–	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	–	5.0
Sofemasa/El País [9] [10]	30–31 Jan 1979	2,000	?	30.6	33.5	9.3	3.7	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	1.8	2.9
ICSA–Gallup/El Periódico [11]	2–29 Nov 1978	2,200	?	27.3	38.7	10.8	3.8	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	–	11.4
Sofemasa/El País [12] [13]	9–11 Jun 1978	2,000	?	28.5	33.6	9.7	7.1	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	–	5.1
Diario 16 [14]	10 Mar 1978	?	79	29.0– 31.0	38.0– 40.0	6.0– 8.0	6.0– 8.0	6.0– 8.0	–	–	–	9.0
1977 general election	15 Jun 1977	—	78.8	34.4 165	29.3 118	9.3 20	8.3 16	4.5 6	2.8 11	1.6 8	0.5 0	5.1

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							PNV		?	N	Lead
1979 general election	1 Mar 1979	—	23.4	20.4	7.2	4.1	[lower-alpha 1]	1.8	1.1	1.4	—	32.0	4.4
Sofemasa/El País [3]	19–21 Feb 1979	16,869	21.5	22.9	7.2	3.3	[lower-alpha 1]	1.2	1.1	1.5	23.2	11.4	1.4
CIS [15]	1–10 Feb 1979	24,395	14.6	14.0	4.4	2.2	[lower-alpha 1]	0.6	1.0	0.6	54.2	4.3	0.6
RNC/ABC [8]	7 Feb 1979	2,999	19.0	20.0	8.0	7.0	[lower-alpha 1]	–	1.7	–	38.0		1.0
ICSA–Gallup/ABC [8]	7 Feb 1979	2,600	19.0	29.0	6.0	8.0	[lower-alpha 1]	[lower-alpha 3]	–	1.0	30.0		10.0
CIS [16]	25 Jan–3 Feb 1979	25,516	14.3	14.5	4.4	2.0	[lower-alpha 1]	0.7	0.8	0.5	55.7	4.2	0.2
Sofemasa/El País [9]	30–31 Jan 1979	2,000	18.4	21.0	5.9	2.3	[lower-alpha 1]	–	–	1.1	32.3	8.8	2.6
CIS [17]	19–22 Jan 1979	1,188	18.5	17.5	3.1	2.6	[lower-alpha 1]	0.5	0.8	–	50.2	3.1	1.0
CIS [18]	1 Jan 1979	1,170	18.0	16.0	4.0	3.0	[lower-alpha 1]	1.0	0.0	–	51.0	4.0	2.0
CIS [19]	17–19 Dec 1978	1,188	24.0	28.0	6.0	3.0	[lower-alpha 1]	1.0	2.0	–	18.0	13.0	4.0
CIS [20]	10–12 Dec 1978	987	23.5	19.4	4.0	3.3	[lower-alpha 1]	0.7	0.4	–	41.7	2.2	4.1
CIS [21]	1 Dec 1978	1,196	21.2	19.5	4.4	4.7	[lower-alpha 1]	0.8	0.8	–	39.8	3.5	1.7
CIS [22]	20–23 Nov 1978	1,166	18.7	18.8	4.2	2.7	[lower-alpha 1]	0.6	1.5	–	45.2	4.2	0.1
CIS [23]	13–16 Nov 1978	1,183	18.4	19.5	3.7	2.0	[lower-alpha 1]	0.3	0.7	–	46.5	4.6	1.1
CIS [24]	6–9 Nov 1978	1,189	20.4	18.3	3.8	2.4	[lower-alpha 1]	1.2	1.3	–	42.5	4.9	2.1
CIS [25]	1 Nov 1978	5,716	18.0	20.0	4.0	3.0	[lower-alpha 1]	1.0	0.0	–	46.0	5.0	2.0
CIS [26]	23–26 Oct 1978	1,169	17.2	19.2	4.1	3.9	[lower-alpha 1]	0.3	1.5	–	42.4	8.0	2.0
CIS [27]	16–18 Oct 1978	1,190	20.2	17.5	4.2	3.7	[lower-alpha 1]	1.6	1.4	–	37.2	9.3	2.7
CIS [28]	9–11 Oct 1978	1,196	19.2	21.0	4.9	3.1	[lower-alpha 1]	0.1	0.8	–	40.8	7.4	1.8
CIS [29]	27–30 Sep 1978	1,184	16.3	19.3	4.9	3.9	[lower-alpha 1]	0.8	0.8	–	40.3	9.2	3.0
CIS [30]	18–26 Sep 1978	1,216	13.8	27.2	9.4	5.3	[lower-alpha 1]	1.9	1.6	–	22.8	12.4	13.4
CIS [31]	24–26 Jul 1978	1,181	20.1	24.7	6.4	3.3	[lower-alpha 1]	0.8	1.4	–	25.0	13.8	4.6
CIS [32]	10–12 Jul 1978	5,350	15.2	22.5	6.2	5.0	[lower-alpha 1]	–	1.1	–	39.4	6.2	3.0
CIS [33]	1 Jul 1978	1,199	17.0	31.0	7.0	3.0	[lower-alpha 1]	2.0	1.0	–	24.0	10.0	14.0
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones [34] [35]	1–16 Feb 1978	2,035	17.2	27.8	4.9	2.9	5.7	2.2	1.0	–	33.6		10.6
CIS [36]	1 Jan 1978	5,653	19.0	20.0	6.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	1.0	–	36.0	8.0	1.0
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones [34]	1–16 Dec 1977	2,037	17.8	28.2	6.1	3.4	5.0	1.6	1.5	–	30.2		10.4
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones [37]	18 Nov 1977	2,134	18.2	30.5	5.8	3.1	5.7	3.0	2.0	–	26.5		12.3
ICSA–Gallup/Diario 16 [38]	17–29 Oct 1977	2,134	17.0	32.4	6.6	3.1	6.0	2.9	1.7	0.4	24.3		15.4
ICSA–Gallup/Informaciones [34]	3–14 Oct 1977	1,944	17.3	31.4	6.3	3.0	6.1	2.9	1.9	–	25.4		14.1
CIS [39]	17–18 Sep 1977	1,554	24.0	24.0	6.0	5.0	5.0	1.0	–	–	31.0		Tie
1977 general election	15 Jun 1977	—	26.8	22.8	7.3	6.4	3.5	2.2	1.3	0.4	—	21.2	4.0

Notes

1. Within PSOE.
2. Undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.
3. Within UCD.

References

1. "El Gobierno estima en 170 los escaños de UCD y en 116 los del PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 2 March 1979.
2. "UCD, 166 escaños; PSOE, 132" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 23 February 1979.
3. "Apretada victoria de UCD frente a los socialistas, que gana posiciones". El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
4. "Izquierdas y derechas se reparten el electorado casi al cincuenta por ciento" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 27 February 1979.
5. "Votos y posibles escaños en cada provincia" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 27 February 1979.
6. "El PSOE se prepara para gobernar" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 23 February 1979.
7. "UCD aventaja al PSOE en dos puntos". ABC (in Spanish). 22 February 1979.
8. "Dos sondeos electorales en ABC". ABC (in Spanish). 7 February 1979.
9. "Equilibrio entre UCD y PSOE, con ligera ventaja socialista". El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
10. "Centristas y socialistas se distancian del resto de las fuerzas políticas" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 6 February 1979.
11. "Ante las municipales: PSOE, 38,7%; UCD, 27,3%". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 17 December 1978.
12. "El PSOE aventaja a UCD". El País (in Spanish). 15 June 1978.
13. "Aumenta la tendencia hacia la izquierda y existen muchos indecisos" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 15 June 1978.
14. "¿Crisis del "suarismo"?" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 10 March 1978.
15. "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1979 (II) (Estudio nº 1183. Febrero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 10 February 1979.
16. "Preelectoral elecciones generales 1979 (I) (Estudio nº 1181. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 3 February 1979.
17. "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (V) (Estudio nº 1182. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 January 1979.
18. "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (IV) (Estudio nº 1179. Enero 1979)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1979.
19. "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (III) (Estudio nº 1178. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 December 1978.
20. "Postreferéndum sobre la Constitución (Estudio nº 1177. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 December 1978.
21. "Constitución y elecciones (IX) (Estudio nº 1176. Diciembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 December 1978.
22. "Constitución y elecciones (VIII) (Estudio nº 1175. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 23 November 1978.
23. "Constitución y elecciones (VII) (Estudio nº 1172. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 16 November 1978.
24. "Constitución y elecciones (VI) (Estudio nº 1170. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 9 November 1978.
25. "Cuestiones de actualidad política (Estudio nº 1165. Noviembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 November 1978.
26. "Constitución y elecciones (V) (Estudio nº 1168. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 October 1978.
27. "Relaciones internacionales (Estudio nº 1167. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 October 1978.
28. "Constitución y elecciones (IV) (Estudio nº 1166. Octubre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 11 October 1978.
29. "Constitución y elecciones (III) (Estudio nº 1160. Septiembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 30 September 1978.
30. "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (II) (Estudio nº 1164. Septiembre 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 September 1978.
31. "Constitución y elecciones (II) (Estudio nº 1163. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 July 1978.
32. "Partidos políticos (Estudio nº 1157. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 12 July 1978.
33. "Elecciones generales y municipales 1979 (I) (Estudio nº 1161. Julio 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 1978.
34. "Suben los indecisos y baja la izquierda" (PDF). Informaciones (in Spanish). 28 February 1978.
35. "Un tercio de la población no sabría a qué partido votar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 February 1978.
36. "Cuestiones de actualidad (XIV) (Estudio nº 1141. Enero 1978)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 1 January 1978.
37. "Avance socialista ante las elecciones municipales" (PDF). Informaciones (in Spanish). 18 November 1977.
38. "El 57 por 100 de los españoles, de izquierdas" (PDF). Diario 16 (in Spanish). 4 January 1978.
39. "Indulto y amnistía (III) (Estudio nº 1139. Septiembre 1977)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 18 September 1977.