Opinion polling for the 2004 Spanish general election

In the run up to the 2004 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain during the term of the 7th Cortes Generales. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 12 March 2000, to the day the next election was held, on 14 March 2004.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical Congress of Deputies election. Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" columns on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Electoral polling

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 12 March 2000 to 14 March 2004, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists nationwide voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					PNV	BNG			Lead
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	75.7	37.7 148	42.6 164	5.0 5	3.2 10	1.6 7	0.8 2	0.9 3	2.5 8	4.9
Sigma Dos/Antena 3 [lower-alpha 1] [1]	14 Mar 2004	?	?	37.5	42.7	5.3	3.1	1.7	–	–	–	5.2
Sigma Dos/Antena 3 [1] [2] [3] [4]	14 Mar 2004	75,000	?	38.5 153/161	41.0 152/159	5.4 6/7	3.3 10/11	1.6 7	1.0 3	0.9 3	2.3 6	2.5
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE–FORTA [2] [3] [5]	14 Mar 2004	210,000	?	36.9 150/154	41.4 154/158	6.3 9/11	3.0 10/12	1.4 6/7	0.9 2	0.9 3/4	2.3 7/8	4.5
TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5 [3] [6] [7]	11–13 Mar 2004	?	?	40.6 168/170	38.3 140/143	6.5 8/10	3.0 10/11	1.5 7	? 2	0.9 3	2.7 6/7	2.3
Opina/Cadena SER [2] [8]	12 Mar 2004	?	?	39.5 154/160	40.5 151/159	6.1 9/10	3.0 10/11	1.2 7/8	? 2/3	? 3/4	? 5/6	1.0
Sigma Dos [1]	12 Mar 2004	?	?	40.3	39.6	5.2	3.3	1.8	–	–	–	0.7
Sigma Dos [1]	10 Mar 2004	?	?	41.2	38.4	5.3	3.3	1.8	–	–	–	2.8
TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5 [9]	8 Mar 2004	3,031	?	42.5 174/176	37.8 136/137	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.7
Opina/Cadena SER [10] [11]	7 Mar 2004	?	?	40.5 161/166	38.0 140/145	5.8 11/12	3.6 10/11	1.4 7/8	1.1 3	0.8 4	2.0 7/8	2.5
Opina/Cadena SER [12] [13] [14]	6 Mar 2004	?	?	40.5	37.0	5.8	3.8	1.5	–	–	–	3.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [15] [16]	5–6 Mar 2004	1,000	?	42.1 168/173	37.6 138/144	5.3 6/8	3.4 11	1.8 7	1.2 3	1.0 3/4	2.0 5/6	4.5
Celeste-Tel/La Razón [17] [18]	4–6 Mar 2004	601	74.1	42.9 173/177	37.6 136/141	6.6 9/10	3.4 11/12	1.7 7/8	1.1 2	0.9 3	1.6 5/6	5.3
Opina/Cadena SER [19] [20] [21]	5 Mar 2004	?	?	41.0	37.0	6.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	4.0
Celeste-Tel/La Razón [22] [23] [24]	17 Feb–5 Mar 2004	2,404	72.1	42.9 171/176	37.2 135/141	5.9 8	3.5 11/12	1.7 7/8	–	0.9 3	1.5 5/6	5.7
Opina/Cadena SER [25] [26] [27]	4 Mar 2004	?	?	41.5	36.5	7.0	3.5	1.5	–	–	–	5.0
TNS Demoscopia/Tele 5 [28]	3 Mar 2004	?	?	42.1 175/176	37.0 136	–	–	–	–	–	–	5.1
Opina/Cadena SER [29] [30] [31]	3 Mar 2004	?	?	41.5 163/171	36.5 135/143	6.5 11/12	3.0 10/11	1.6 7/8	1.1 2/3	0.8 3/4	2.0 6/8	5.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [32]	1–3 Mar 2004	2,071	72–73	42.5 169/173	37.3 135/140	7.1 10/12	3.2 10/11	1.5 7	–	–	1.9 6/7	5.2
Citigate Sanchís/La Gaceta [22] [33] [34]	1–3 Mar 2004	1,007	?	42.8	37.3	5.7	3.1	1.5	–	1.4	2.2	5.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia [35]	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	2,200	?	41.4 162/167	39.2 143/147	6.3 9/10	3.0 10	2.1 7	? 2/3	1.0 4	2.1 5/6	2.2
Opina/Cadena SER [36] [37] [38]	2 Mar 2004	?	?	41.0	36.5	6.5	3.2	1.7	–	–	–	4.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [39] [40]	24 Feb–2 Mar 2004	12,500	?	42.8 172/177	36.6 134/139	5.7 7/10	3.3 11	1.8 7	1.2 3	–	1.9 5	6.2
Opina/Cadena SER [41] [42] [43]	1 Mar 2004	?	?	40.5	36.5	6.5	3.2	1.7	–	–	–	4.0
Opina/El País [44] [45] [46]	27 Feb–1 Mar 2004	4,000	?	42.0 168/172	38.0 134/141	6.3 11	3.0 10/11	1.7 7/8	0.9 3	0.9 3/4	1.9 7	4.0
Opina/Cadena SER [47] [48] [49]	29 Feb 2004	?	?	40.5 164/169	36.5 138/144	7.0 12	3.5 10/11	1.5 7/8	1.0 2/3	1.0 3/4	1.5 6	4.0
Ipsos–Eco/Prensa Ibérica [34] [50] [51]	29 Feb 2004	?	?	41.3 170/174	37.4 131/135	6.5 ?	3.4 ?	1.4 ?	–	–	–	3.9
Citigate Sanchís/La Gaceta [33] [34]	29 Feb 2004	?	?	44.4	36.8	5.6	3.2	2.1	–	–	–	7.6
Opina/Cadena SER [52] [53]	28 Feb 2004	?	?	41.0	36.5	6.5	3.8	1.6	–	–	–	4.5
Opina/Cadena SER [54] [55] [56]	27 Feb 2004	?	?	41.5 166/172	36.5 136/144	6.4 10/12	3.8 10/12	1.6 6/8	–	–	–	5.0
Atento STC/Expansión [57] [58]	23–27 Feb 2004	?	?	40.4	37.5	5.0	–	–	–	–	–	2.9
Opina/Cadena SER [50] [59] [60] [61]	26 Feb 2004	3,000	?	41.5 166/172	36.5 136/144	6.0 10/12	4.0 10/12	1.5 6/8	–	–	–	5.0
Infortécnica [62]	26 Feb 2004	4,656	?	? 165/175	? 130/138	? 13/17	? 9/12	? 7/8	? 2/4	? 4/6	? 4/6	?
Sigma Dos/Antena 3 [1]	25 Feb 2004	?	?	43.3	35.8	5.8	3.6	1.4	–	–	–	7.5
Celeste-Tel/La Razón [34] [63] [64]	17–25 Feb 2004	?	?	42.2 170/171	36.1 141/142	5.4 6/7	3.9 11/13	1.8 8	? 3	? 4	? 2/3	6.1
TNS Demoscopia/Vocento [65] [66]	10–25 Feb 2004	12,760	68–70	42.2 174/177	37.2 133/137	7.0 8/10	3.1 10/11	1.5 7	1.0 2	0.9 3	2.1 6/7	5.0
Gallup [67]	2–20 Feb 2004	2,036	69.1	43.9	35.1	6.1	3.2	1.5	–	–	–	8.8
Metra Seis/Colpisa [68] [69]	6–16 Feb 2004	5,200	70–72	42.0 170/176	36.2 131/136	5.8 7/9	3.4 11/12	1.9 7/9	1.2 2/3	0.9 4/5	2.1 5/7	5.8
CIS [70] [71]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	24,109	75.1	42.2 176	35.5 131	6.6 10	3.7 12	1.8 7	1.2 3	1.0 3	1.9 6	6.7
Noxa/La Vanguardia [72]	6–12 Feb 2004	1,800	?	42.6 164/169	38.6 138/142	5.8 9/10	2.8 9	2.2 8/9	? 4/5	0.9 4	2.0 6/7	4.0
Opina/Cadena SER [73] [74]	11 Feb 2004	1,000	?	41.0	38.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Sigma Dos/Antena 3 [1] [75] [76]	9–10 Feb 2004	1,000	?	43.5	35.4	5.2	3.8	1.6	–	–	–	8.1
Celeste-Tel/La Razón [34] [64] [50] [77]	8 Feb 2004	?	?	43.9 175	35.8 136/137	5.4 5/6	3.9 12/13	1.8 8	–	? 4	? 3	8.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [1] [78]	8 Feb 2004	?	?	44.3	34.8	5.6	3.6	1.5	–	–	–	9.5
Opina/Cadena SER [79] [80]	31 Jan 2004	1,000	?	41.0	37.0	4.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	4.0
Opina/El País [81] [82]	25 Jan 2004	3,000	?	42.5 171/175	37.0 135/138	5.5 8/11	3.5 12	1.5 7	1.0 2	1.3 5	1.5 4	5.5
Gallup [83]	5–22 Jan 2004	2,028	68.3	41.9	36.2	6.7	4.3	1.7	–	–	–	5.7
Vox Pública/El Periódico [84]	19–21 Jan 2004	1,501	?	43.0 170/175	38.0 138/142	5.5 8/10	3.0 10/11	1.5 7	–	–	–	5.0
Opina/Cadena SER [85] [86] [87]	16 Jan 2004	1,000	?	42.0	38.0	4.5	3.5	1.5	–	–	–	4.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia [88]	7–9 Jan 2004	1,000	?	42.6 174	36.5 137	7.2 11	3.0 10	2.1 9	–	1.0 4	1.4 3	6.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [1] [89]	4 Jan 2004	?	?	44.6	33.9	6.2	3.8	1.3	–	–	–	10.7
Opina/Cadena SER [90] [91] [92]	2 Jan 2004	?	?	42.0	40.0	6.0	3.5	2.0	–	–	–	2.0
Gallup [93] [94]	1–19 Dec 2003	2,025	70.0	44.1	35.2	6.1	3.6	1.6	–	–	–	8.9
Celeste-Tel/La Razón [34] [95]	7 Dec 2003	?	?	43.0	35.5	5.9	3.6	2.0	–	–	–	7.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [1] [96]	7 Dec 2003	?	?	44.8	33.7	6.1	3.9	1.5	–	–	–	11.1
Opina/El País [97] [98]	7 Dec 2003	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	5.5	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Metra Seis/Colpisa [95] [34] [99]	2–5 Dec 2003	?	?	44.5 178/185	33.1 121/125	6.3 8/9	4.1 14/15	1.4 7	–	–	–	11.4
Gallup [100] [101]	4–25 Nov 2003	2,032	70.5	43.3	36.5	6.7	3.5	1.6	–	–	–	6.8
Opina/Cadena SER [102] [103]	19 Nov 2003	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
CIS [104] [105]	25–31 Oct 2003	2,488	?	42.4	34.7	5.9	4.0	1.4	1.3	–	–	7.7
Gallup [106] [107]	3–22 Oct 2003	2,016	69.9	42.4	36.8	6.2	3.4	1.6	–	–	–	5.6
Intercampo/GETS [108] [109] [110]	17 Sep–2 Oct 2003	1,714	?	43.8	34.3	6.4	3.8	1.5	–	–	–	9.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [95] [34] [111]	28 Sep 2003	?	?	43.8	35.3	5.1	4.0	1.4	–	–	–	8.5
Opina/Cadena SER [112] [113]	24 Sep 2003	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	6.5	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [114]	22–24 Sep 2003	1,502	?	44.2	37.1	6.0	3.0	1.6	–	–	–	7.1
Gallup [115]	1–24 Sep 2003	2,027	71.2	43.0	35.3	7.2	3.5	1.6	–	–	–	7.7
Opina/Cadena SER [116] [117] [118]	10 Sep 2003	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Opina/El País [119] [120] [121]	7 Sep 2003	1,000	?	42.0	38.0	6.5	5.5	1.8	–	–	–	4.0
Celeste-Tel/La Razón [95] [34]	7 Sep 2003	?	?	43.2	35.3	5.9	3.7	1.9	–	–	–	7.9
Opina/Cadena SER [117] [122]	2 Sep 2003	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [123] [124]	27 Aug 2003	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	6.5	5.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Gallup [125]	1–18 Aug 2003	2,026	70.2	43.6	36.5	5.4	3.7	1.5	–	–	–	7.1
Gallup [126]	1–24 Jul 2003	2,032	70.7	42.9	37.4	5.9	3.4	1.4	–	–	–	5.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [95] [34] [127]	20 Jul 2003	?	?	42.8	35.9	5.6	3.9	1.5	–	–	–	6.9
CIS [128] [129] [130]	2–8 Jul 2003	2,476	?	41.2	35.2	6.3	3.8	1.2	1.5	–	–	6.0
Ibecom/La Razón [95] [34]	6 Jul 2003	?	?	43.6	33.9	4.4	4.3	1.3	–	–	–	9.7
Opina/Cadena SER [131] [132]	1 Jul 2003	1,000	?	40.0	39.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	–	–	–	1.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [133] [134]	24–26 Jun 2003	1,000	?	42.6	35.4	6.2	4.0	1.6	–	–	–	7.2
Vox Pública/El Periódico [135]	23–25 Jun 2003	1,502	?	41.6	37.5	5.9	3.1	1.2	–	–	–	4.1
Gallup [136] [137]	2–20 Jun 2003	2,024	75.1	40.7	37.2	7.4	3.2	1.2	–	–	–	3.5
Opina/Cadena SER [138] [139]	11 Jun 2003	?	?	42.0	39.0	4.5	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [140]	28 May 2003	?	?	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	Tie
Gallup [141] [142]	5–26 May 2003	2,026	73.4	38.4	38.8	6.8	2.9	1.4	–	–	–	0.4
2003 local elections	25 May 2003	—	67.8	34.3	34.8	6.1	3.4	1.8	1.4	1.2	1.8	0.5
Opina/Cadena SER [140] [143]	15 May 2003	1,000	?	39.0	39.0	6.0	4.0	1.8	–	–	–	Tie
CIS [144] [145]	24–30 Apr 2003	2,494	74.2	37.3	39.5	6.3	3.3	1.3	1.3	–	–	2.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [95] [146]	27 Apr 2003	?	?	41.2	38.7	5.0	3.7	1.5	–	–	–	2.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia [147]	22–24 Apr 2003	1,000	?	39.3	42.3	6.1	3.2	1.5	–	–	–	3.0
Ipsos–Eco/ABC [148]	22–24 Apr 2003	2,254	?	33.9	39.4	6.1	3.8	1.7	–	–	–	5.5
Opina/Cadena SER [149] [150] [151]	23 Apr 2003	1,000	?	38.0	42.0	6.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	4.0
Gallup [152] [153]	1–22 Apr 2003	2,020	70.2	35.8	43.2	6.3	3.5	1.6	–	–	–	7.4
Opina/Cadena SER [150]	2 Apr 2003	?	?	36.5	43.0	6.0	4.2	2.0	–	–	–	6.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [154]	31 Mar–2 Apr 2003	1,503	?	35.9	42.6	6.1	3.6	1.5	–	–	–	6.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [95] [155]	30 Mar 2003	?	?	38.6	40.7	5.1	3.6	1.5	–	–	–	2.1
Opina/El País [156] [157]	25–26 Mar 2003	1,000	?	36.0	42.0	6.2	4.2	2.0	–	–	–	6.0
Gallup [158] [159]	3–25 Mar 2003	2,016	68.8	38.6	42.1	5.1	3.8	1.6	–	–	–	3.5
Opina/Cadena SER [160] [161]	21 Mar 2003	1,000	?	37.0	43.0	6.0	4.0	1.8	–	–	–	6.0
Opina/Cadena SER [162] [163]	8 Mar 2003	1,000	?	37.0	42.5	5.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	5.5
Gallup [164] [165]	3–24 Feb 2003	2,028	68.5	39.7	39.8	5.5	3.7	1.6	–	–	–	0.1
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [166] [167]	18–20 Feb 2003	1,000	?	38.5	40.2	5.6	3.9	1.5	–	–	–	1.7
Opina/Cadena SER [168] [169]	19 Feb 2003	1,000	?	38.0	42.0	5.5	4.0	1.8	–	–	–	4.0
Opina/Cadena SER [170]	6 Feb 2003	?	?	38.0	42.0	5.0	4.0	1.8	–	–	–	4.0
Opina/El País [171] [172]	3 Feb 2003	1,000	?	40.0	42.0	4.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	2.0
CIS [173] [174]	21–26 Jan 2003	2,480	74.4	39.8	37.3	5.5	3.7	1.5	1.4	–	–	2.5
Gallup [175] [176]	7–23 Jan 2003	2,034	68.9	39.6	39.5	4.9	3.3	1.6	–	–	–	0.1
Opina/Cadena SER [177] [178]	22 Jan 2003	1,000	?	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	1.6	–	–	–	Tie
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [167] [179]	20 Jan 2003	?	?	41.6	38.6	4.9	3.9	1.3	–	–	–	3.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [180]	13–16 Jan 2003	1,501	?	40.4	39.0	6.0	3.3	1.1	–	–	–	1.4
Opina/Cadena SER [181] [182] [183]	8 Jan 2003	1,000	?	41.0	41.0	4.8	4.5	1.8	–	–	–	Tie
Gallup [184] [185]	2–23 Dec 2002	2,011	68.5	38.2	40.8	5.0	4.0	1.4	–	–	–	2.6
Opina/Cadena SER [186] [187] [188]	17 Dec 2002	1,000	?	39.0	42.0	5.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	3.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [189] [190]	9–11 Dec 2002	1,000	?	41.7	38.8	4.7	3.7	1.4	–	–	–	2.9
Opina/Cadena SER [191] [192]	4 Dec 2002	1,000	?	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	Tie
La Vanguardia [193]	25 Nov 2002	?	?	38.6 153	40.0 154	? 7	? 14	–	–	–	–	1.4
Gallup [194] [195]	4–25 Nov 2002	2,018	70.0	40.6	39.8	5.4	3.3	1.2	–	–	–	0.8
Opina/El País [196]	23–24 Nov 2002	1,000	?	40.0	40.0	5.0	4.5	1.8	–	–	–	Tie
Opina/Cadena SER [197] [198]	20 Nov 2002	1,000	?	42.0	40.0	5.0	4.8	1.5	–	–	–	2.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [199] [200]	5–8 Nov 2002	3,400	?	41.9	38.4	4.6	4.0	1.4	–	–	–	3.5
Opina/Cadena SER [201] [202]	6 Nov 2002	1,000	?	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	1.8	–	–	–	Tie
Opina/El País [203]	28–29 Oct 2002	?	?	41.0	41.0	5.2	4.0	1.7	–	–	–	Tie
Gallup [204] [205]	1–24 Oct 2002	2,018	69.4	42.7	37.2	5.1	3.8	1.4	–	–	–	5.5
Opina/Cadena SER [206] [207]	23 Oct 2002	1,000	?	41.0	39.5	5.1	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	1.5
Ibecom/La Razón [95] [208] [209] [210]	17–21 Oct 2002	?	?	43.5	38.7	2.9	3.1	1.1	–	–	–	4.8
CIS [211] [212]	16–21 Oct 2002	2,489	74.6	41.5	37.3	4.6	3.7	1.4	1.2	–	–	4.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [213]	14 Oct 2002	?	?	41.8	37.9	5.0	4.2	1.5	–	–	–	3.9
Opina/Cadena SER [214] [215]	9 Oct 2002	1,000	?	42.0	38.5	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	3.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [216]	7–9 Oct 2002	1,507	?	42.4 165/170	38.7 145/150	4.8 ?	3.3 ?	1.2 ?	–	–	–	3.7
CIS [217]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	10,476	75.6	41.0	37.1	5.4	4.0	1.5	1.2	–	–	3.9
Intercampo/GETS [109]	18 Sep–3 Oct 2002	?	?	41.6	36.6	5.6	4.4	1.5	–	–	–	5.0
Opina/El País [218] [219]	29 Sep 2002	?	?	42.0	39.0	4.5	3.8	1.6	0.9	0.9	1.0	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [220] [221]	25 Sep 2002	1,000	?	41.0	39.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	2.0
Ipsos–Eco/ABC [222]	6–13 Sep 2002	2,010	?	40.7	37.6	5.7	4.0	1.5	1.4	–	–	3.1
Opina/Cadena SER [223] [224]	10 Sep 2002	1,000	?	42.0	39.5	5.0	4.0	1.7	–	–	–	2.5
Opina/Cadena SER [225] [226] [227]	27 Aug 2002	1,000	?	41.0	41.0	5.5	4.0	1.8	–	–	–	Tie
Gallup [228]	1–23 Aug 2002	2,008	68.0	42.1	38.0	5.5	3.1	1.4	–	–	–	4.1
Gallup [229]	2–29 Jul 2002	2,013	67.8	42.5	38.0	5.7	3.4	1.4	–	–	–	4.5
CIS [230] [231]	16–21 Jul 2002	2,482	74.0	41.0	36.3	5.0	4.2	1.4	1.2	–	–	4.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [232]	14 Jul 2002	?	?	43.3	36.2	5.7	3.9	1.5	–	–	–	7.1
La Vanguardia [233] [234]	26–30 Jun 2002	2,494	?	39.2 158	36.8 145	6.3 9	3.5 13	–	–	–	–	2.4
Opina/Cadena SER [235] [236]	27 Jun 2002	1,000	?	41.0	40.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	1.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [237]	24–26 Jun 2002	1,504	?	41.9	38.7	5.9	3.1	1.1	–	–	–	3.2
Gallup [238]	1–24 Jun 2002	2,016	68.3	42.7	36.8	5.7	4.2	1.6	–	–	–	5.9
Opina/Cadena SER [236] [239]	21 Jun 2002	?	?	41.0	39.5	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	1.5
Opina/Cadena SER [236] [239] [240]	5 Jun 2002	1,000	?	41.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.5	–	–	–	2.0
La Vanguardia [233] [241]	20–26 May 2002	2,496	?	40.0 162	36.9 142	6.6 8	4.1 15	–	–	–	–	3.1
Opina/Cadena SER [242] [243]	22 May 2002	1,000	?	41.0	40.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	1.0
Gallup [244]	3–22 May 2002	2,010	70.2	42.3	37.6	5.3	3.6	1.5	–	–	–	4.7
Opina/Cadena SER [245] [246]	8 May 2002	1,000	?	41.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	2.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [247]	3 May 2002	?	?	43.2	37.2	4.7	3.5	1.5	–	–	–	6.0
Opina/Cadena SER [248] [249]	24 Apr 2002	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Gallup [250]	1–23 Apr 2002	2,017	68.2	41.8	37.6	5.0	4.2	1.7	–	–	–	4.2
CIS [251] [252]	16–21 Apr 2002	2,498	73.9	42.4	34.4	5.4	4.4	1.5	1.5	–	–	8.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [253]	15–17 Apr 2002	1,510	?	42.5	37.6	5.2	3.9	1.4	–	–	–	4.9
Opina/Cadena SER [254] [255]	10 Apr 2002	1,000	?	42.0	38.5	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.5
Gallup [256]	4–27 Mar 2002	2,029	68.3	41.8	36.9	5.8	3.7	1.7	–	–	–	4.9
Opina/Cadena SER [257] [258]	26 Mar 2002	1,000	?	42.0	38.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	–	–	–	4.0
Opina/Cadena SER [259] [260]	12 Mar 2002	1,000	?	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [261] [262]	27 Feb 2002	1,000	?	43.5	38.0	5.0	4.5	1.7	–	–	–	5.5
Gallup [263]	4–27 Feb 2002	2,030	70.3	43.1	37.1	5.0	3.4	1.4	–	–	–	6.0
Opina/Cadena SER [264] [265]	13 Feb 2002	1,000	?	42.5	38.0	5.0	5.0	1.7	–	–	–	4.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [266]	4–5 Feb 2002	1,506	?	44.1	36.8	4.9	3.4	1.7	–	–	–	7.3
CIS [267] [268]	27–31 Jan 2002	2,498	74.3	43.9	34.2	5.8	4.0	1.5	1.2	–	–	9.7
Opina/Cadena SER [269] [270]	30 Jan 2002	1,000	?	43.5	38.0	4.5	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	5.5
Gallup [271]	4–29 Jan 2002	2,031	70.1	43.2	36.8	5.4	3.5	1.6	–	–	–	6.4
Opina/Cadena SER [272] [273]	16 Jan 2002	1,000	?	43.5	38.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	–	–	–	5.5
Opina/Cadena SER [274] [275] [276]	3 Jan 2002	1,000	?	43.5	38.5	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	5.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [277]	26–28 Dec 2001	?	?	44.7	35.5	4.4	3.6	1.5	–	–	–	9.2
Gallup [278] [279] [280]	3–28 Dec 2001	2,020	70.6	42.2	38.4	5.2	3.4	1.5	–	–	–	3.8
Opina/Cadena SER [281] [282]	24 Dec 2001	?	?	42.0	37.0	5.5	4.0	2.0	1.4	–	–	5.0
Opina/Cadena SER [283] [284] [285]	5 Dec 2001	1,000	?	41.5	39.0	5.5	5.0	2.0	–	–	–	2.5
Gallup [286] [287] [288]	2–28 Nov 2001	2,021	69.8	44.2	36.8	5.3	3.5	1.4	–	–	–	7.4
Opina/Cadena SER [289] [290]	20 Nov 2001	1,000	?	42.5	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.5
Opina/Cadena SER [291] [292]	7 Nov 2001	1,000	?	43.0	38.5	5.5	4.5	1.5	–	–	–	4.5
Gallup [293] [294] [295]	1–30 Oct 2001	2,016	70.1	43.9	37.0	4.9	3.8	1.5	–	–	–	6.9
CIS [296] [297] [298] [299]	24–29 Oct 2001	2,499	74.1	43.5 180	34.0 125	5.5 8	4.5 16	1.4 7	1.4 ?	–	–	9.5
La Vanguardia [300]	28 Oct 2001	?	?	41.3 167	37.0 138	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.3
Opina/Cadena SER [301] [302]	24 Oct 2001	1,000	?	44.0	38.5	5.0	4.5	1.5	–	–	–	5.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [303]	22–23 Oct 2001	1,509	?	44.5	37.9	5.6	3.7	1.4	–	–	–	6.6
Intercampo/GETS [109]	19 Sep–4 Oct 2001	?	?	42.4	36.3	5.6	4.1	1.8	–	–	–	6.1
Opina/Cadena SER [302] [239]	2 Oct 2001	?	?	43.5	40.0	5.5	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	3.5
Gallup [304] [305] [306]	6–27 Sep 2001	2,027	70.3	42.3	37.2	5.5	4.0	1.6	–	–	–	5.1
Opina/Cadena SER [239] [307] [302]	18 Sep 2001	1,000	?	43.5	39.0	5.0	4.5	1.5	–	–	–	4.5
Opina/Cadena SER [308] [309]	5 Sep 2001	1,000	?	44.0	38.0	5.0	4.6	2.0	–	–	–	6.0
Gallup [310] [311] [312]	2–30 Jul 2001	2,024	70.2	42.1	38.3	5.1	3.4	2.0	–	–	–	3.8
CIS [298] [313] [314]	13–18 Jul 2001	2,485	75.1	43.6 178	34.9 129	5.6 ?	3.7 ?	1.5 ?	1.5 ?	–	–	8.7
Opina/Cadena SER [315] [316]	30 Jun 2001	1,000	?	43.5	40.0	5.0	4.5	1.5	–	–	–	3.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [317]	25–28 Jun 2001	1,506	?	44.0	37.1	5.9	3.2	1.2	–	–	–	6.9
Gallup [318] [319] [320]	6–27 Jun 2001	2,008	69.5	43.6	36.8	5.2	3.6	1.5	–	–	–	6.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [321]	24 Jun 2001	?	?	43.4	35.8	5.4	3.9	1.4	–	–	–	7.6
Opina/Cadena SER [322] [323] [324]	13 Jun 2001	1,000	?	44.0	38.0	6.0	4.5	1.5	–	–	–	6.0
La Vanguardia [325]	30 May 2001	?	?	43.5 180	35.1 128	–	–	–	–	–	–	8.4
Opina/Cadena SER [326] [327]	30 May 2001	1,000	?	43.0	39.5	5.0	4.5	1.5	–	–	–	3.5
Gallup [328] [329] [330]	4–25 May 2001	2,031	69.8	45.0	34.3	6.3	4.3	1.4	–	–	–	10.7
Opina/Cadena SER [331] [332]	14 May 2001	1,000	?	44.0	38.0	5.5	4.5	2.3	–	–	–	6.0
CIS [298] [333] [334]	20–30 Apr 2001	2,492	73.9	43.5 179	35.2 131	4.9 ?	4.0 ?	1.3 ?	1.4 ?	–	–	8.3
Gallup [335] [336] [337]	4–25 Apr 2001	2,026	69.8	43.4	37.6	4.9	3.4	1.5	–	–	–	5.8
Opina/Cadena SER [338] [339]	24 Apr 2001	1,000	?	44.0	38.5	5.5	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	5.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [340]	16–18 Apr 2001	1,514	?	43.7	38.6	3.7	3.4	1.5	–	–	–	5.1
Opina/Cadena SER [341] [342]	11 Apr 2001	?	?	43.0	40.0	4.5	4.5	1.7	–	–	–	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [343] [344] [345]	4 Apr 2001	?	?	42.0	37.0	5.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	5.0
Gallup [346] [347] [348]	5–30 Mar 2001	2,026	72.3	43.4	35.6	5.5	3.7	1.3	–	–	–	7.8
Opina/Cadena SER [349] [350]	7 Mar 2001	?	?	43.0	38.5	4.5	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	4.5
La Vanguardia [325]	28 Feb 2001	?	?	42.7 177	35.9 132	–	–	–	–	–	–	6.8
Gallup [351] [352] [353]	1–26 Feb 2001	2,036	70.3	42.4	37.5	5.4	3.4	1.7	–	–	–	4.9
Opina/Cadena SER [354] [355] [356]	21 Feb 2001	1,000	?	43.0	40.0	4.5	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	3.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [357] [358]	18 Feb 2001	800	?	43.5	35.9	4.6	4.1	1.5	–	–	–	7.6
Opina/Cadena SER [359] [360]	7 Feb 2001	?	?	43.0	40.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	3.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [361] [362]	29–31 Jan 2001	1,519	?	43.5	37.5	4.0	3.5	1.5	–	–	–	6.0
Gallup [363] [364] [365]	8–27 Jan 2001	2,028	71.6	41.9	37.0	5.3	4.4	1.7	–	–	–	4.9
Opina/Cadena SER [360] [366]	24 Jan 2001	?	?	44.0	39.0	4.5	4.5	1.8	–	–	–	5.0
CIS [298] [367] [368]	18–23 Jan 2001	2,486	73.9	43.5 179	36.2 132	5.1 ?	3.9 ?	1.4 ?	1.2 ?	–	–	7.3
Opina/Cadena SER [369]	16 Jan 2001	?	?	42.0	39.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [360]	10 Jan 2001	?	?	42.0	38.5	5.0	4.9	1.5	–	–	–	3.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [370]	22–29 Dec 2000	?	?	44.6	36.2	4.2	4.0	1.4	–	–	–	8.4
Opitel/Tele 5 [371]	28 Dec 2000	?	?	44.5	38.0	3.8	4.5	2.0	–	–	–	6.5
Gallup [95]	7–24 Dec 2000	?	?	44.4	36.9	5.4	3.7	1.9	–	–	–	7.5
Opina/Cadena SER [360] [372]	20 Dec 2000	?	?	44.5	38.5	4.2	4.3	1.8	–	–	–	6.0
Opina/Cadena SER [360] [373]	5 Dec 2000	?	?	44.5	38.5	5.0	4.0	2.0	–	–	–	6.0
La Vanguardia [325]	28 Nov 2000	?	?	42.6 176	36.0 133	–	–	–	–	–	–	6.6
Opina/Cadena SER [360] [374]	22 Nov 2000	?	?	45.0	38.0	3.0	4.0	1.5	–	–	–	7.0
Opina/Cadena SER [374]	8 Nov 2000	?	?	44.0	36.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	8.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [375]	30–31 Oct 2000	1,210	?	44.0	36.7	4.6	4.1	1.2	–	–	–	7.3
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [376]	30 Oct 2000	?	?	46.2	34.2	4.9	3.2	1.5	–	–	–	12.0
Opina/Cadena SER [360]	25 Oct 2000	?	?	42.2	32.8	5.1	3.3	1.7	–	–	–	9.4
CIS [128] [377] [378] [379]	17–22 Oct 2000	2,497	?	43.7 173/179	36.2 131/134	5.5 7/8	3.8 14	1.5 7	1.3 ?	–	–	7.5
Demoscopia/El País [95] [380]	9 Oct 2000	?	?	45.0	35.8	6.9	4.4	1.4	–	–	–	9.2
Intercampo/GETS [109]	20 Sep–5 Oct 2000	?	?	42.9	33.7	5.6	4.0	1.3	–	–	–	9.2
Opitel/Tele 5 [381]	2 Oct 2000	?	?	44.8	34.9	4.6	4.5	1.0	–	–	–	9.9
Gallup [382] [383] [384]	1–27 Sep 2000	2,025	71.4	45.0	34.9	5.3	4.1	1.3	–	–	–	10.1
La Vanguardia [325]	20 Jul 2000	?	?	47.1 188	31.5 119	–	–	–	–	–	–	15.6
CIS [298] [379] [385] [386] [387]	13–18 Jul 2000	2,493	72.9	46.6 186	31.6 119/120	5.9 9	4.3 15/16	1.4 7	1.5 ?	–	–	15.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [200] [388]	16 Jul 2000	?	?	45.7	33.6	5.9	3.5	1.6	–	–	–	12.1
Vox Pública/El Periódico [389]	26–30 Jun 2000	2,300	?	46.5	30.5	5.6	3.8	1.0	–	–	–	16.0
La Vanguardia [325]	7 Jun 2000	?	?	47.5 189	31.1 118	–	–	–	–	–	–	16.4
CIS [298] [390] [391]	29 Apr–3 May 2000	2,491	72.0	45.3 185	32.7 125	5.9 ?	4.0 ?	1.2 ?	1.5 ?	–	–	12.6
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—	68.7	44.5 183	34.2 125	5.4 8	4.2 15	1.5 7	1.3 3	1.1 4	0.8 1	10.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					PNV	BNG			?	N	Lead
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	28.8	32.7	3.8	2.5	1.2	0.6	0.7	1.9	—	22.7	3.9
Vox Pública/El Periódico [32]	1–3 Mar 2004	2,071	30.9	27.0	4.9	2.0	0.9	–	–	–	24.3	2.6	3.9
Noxa/La Vanguardia [392]	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	2,200	30.9	31.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.3
ASEP [393]	16–21 Feb 2004	1,212	31.2	27.3	6.0	4.1*	*	**	*	2.6**	16.5	8.0	3.9
Gallup [67]	2–20 Feb 2004	2,036	21.6	26.9	5.0	1.0	0.7	–	–	–	24.1	16.5	5.3
CIS [70]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	24,109	26.2	22.8	4.0	2.1	0.8	0.5	0.4	1.5	31.0	6.8	3.4
Noxa/La Vanguardia [392]	6–12 Feb 2004	1,800	32.6	31.9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.7
ASEP [393]	19–24 Jan 2004	1,201	31.4	29.8	5.2	5.1*	*	**	*	2.9**	14.4	7.3	1.6
Gallup [83]	5–22 Jan 2004	2,028	22.6	24.3	4.4	1.2	1.3	–	–	–	26.8	16.2	1.7
Vox Pública/El Periódico [84]	19–21 Jan 2004	1,501	34.9	33.0	3.7	1.1	0.7	–	–	–	12.8	6.5	1.9
CIS [394] [395]	10–15 Jan 2004	2,489	27.8	21.3	3.3	1.4	1.1	0.5	0.4	1.1	32.2	6.9	6.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia [392]	7–9 Jan 2004	1,000	36.5	28.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	8.3
Gallup [94]	1–19 Dec 2003	2,025	23.5	21.0	4.9	1.1	1.5	–	–	–	27.6	17.9	2.5
ASEP [393]	9–13 Dec 2003	1,207	29.1	30.4	4.0	5.5*	*	**	*	3.4**	14.1	10.5	1.3
Gallup [101]	4–25 Nov 2003	2,032	23.6	23.5	4.8	0.7	1.4	–	–	–	24.5	18.5	0.1
ASEP [393]	10–15 Nov 2003	1,205	27.6	25.8	4.5	4.7*	*	**	*	3.0**	19.7	9.5	1.8
CIS [104]	25–31 Oct 2003	2,488	27.5	24.4	3.7	2.2	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.8	24.5	9.3	3.1
Gallup [107]	3–22 Oct 2003	2,016	23.2	23.4	4.2	1.1	2.5	–	–	–	25.4	17.6	0.2
ASEP [393]	13–18 Oct 2003	1,205	27.7	28.1	4.6	5.2*	*	**	*	2.2**	18.4	8.7	0.4
Vox Pública/El Periódico [114]	22–24 Sep 2003	1,502	35.9	29.8	3.6	1.7	1.2	–	–	–	13.4	6.9	6.1
Gallup [115]	1–24 Sep 2003	2,027	24.6	22.6	4.9	1.0	1.7	–	–	–	27.2	14.8	2.0
ASEP [393]	15–20 Sep 2003	1,214	27.5	33.5	3.1	4.5*	*	**	*	1.5**	17.8	8.3	6.0
Gallup [125]	1–18 Aug 2003	2,026	22.5	24.8	3.5	1.2	1.7	–	–	–	28.4	15.1	2.3
Gallup [126]	1–24 Jul 2003	2,032	23.4	26.0	4.0	0.8	1.3	–	–	–	22.3	18.9	2.6
CIS [129]	2–8 Jul 2003	2,476	25.2	26.1	4.9	2.4	0.8	0.7	0.3	1.2	22.5	9.6	0.9
ASEP [393]	30 Jun–5 Jul 2003	1,212	27.6	30.4	5.3	4.3*	*	**	*	2.7**	14.8	10.9	2.8
Vox Pública/El Periódico [135]	23–25 Jun 2003	1,502	31.0	30.3	5.4	1.3	0.9	–	–	–	14.4	6.6	0.7
Gallup [137]	2–20 Jun 2003	2,024	26.6	24.3	5.0	0.5	0.7	–	–	–	23.9	15.0	2.3
ASEP [393]	2–7 Jun 2003	1,215	27.7	30.0	4.8	5.6*	*	**	*	3.0**	17.1	8.6	2.3
Gallup [142]	5–26 May 2003	2,026	19.2	27.5	4.4	0.6	0.7	–	–	–	28.1	14.0	8.3
ASEP [393]	5–10 May 2003	1,210	25.4	30.9	5.1	4.3*	*	**	*	1.6**	19.6	8.4	5.5
CIS [144]	24–30 Apr 2003	2,494	21.8	27.4	4.3	2.0	1.3	0.6	0.4	0.8	26.1	8.6	5.6
Gallup [153]	1–22 Apr 2003	2,020	16.4	28.7	3.7	0.7	0.8	–	–	–	29.4	16.3	12.3
ASEP [393]	7–12 Apr 2003	1,205	18.6	34.5	4.2	4.7*	*	**	*	2.4**	20.9	9.1	15.9
Vox Pública/El Periódico [154]	31 Mar–2 Apr 2003	1,503	20.4	33.7	4.1	2.3	0.9	–	–	–	17.4	9.8	13.3
Gallup [159]	3–25 Mar 2003	2,016	18.4	30.1	3.2	0.9	0.7	–	–	–	24.8	19.0	11.7
ASEP [393]	10–16 Mar 2003	1,210	22.7	32.5	3.3	5.1*	*	**	*	2.2**	18.4	10.2	9.8
Gallup [165]	3–24 Feb 2003	2,028	18.2	26.9	4.3	1.1	1.5	–	–	–	25.2	20.0	8.7
ASEP [393]	10–15 Feb 2003	1,209	24.4	32.4	3.8	4.7*	*	**	*	2.3**	18.2	9.7	8.0
CIS [173]	21–26 Jan 2003	2,480	23.2	24.4	3.4	2.4	1.4	0.7	0.3	0.9	25.3	11.7	1.2
Gallup [176]	7–23 Jan 2003	2,034	20.0	27.3	3.6	0.7	1.9	–	–	–	23.8	18.9	7.3
ASEP [393]	13–18 Jan 2003	1,215	23.5	28.2	4.2	5.0*	*	**	*	2.5**	20.5	11.4	4.7
Vox Pública/El Periódico [180]	13–16 Jan 2003	1,501	27.8	27.6	4.0	1.6	0.9	–	–	–	18.8	9.6	0.2
Gallup [185]	2–23 Dec 2002	2,011	17.6	25.3	3.1	0.8	1.1	–	–	–	29.6	18.3	7.7
ASEP [393]	2–8 Dec 2002	1,210	22.4	30.8	3.6	5.3*	*	**	*	3.5**	17.3	12.1	8.4
Gallup [195]	4–25 Nov 2002	2,018	20.6	25.1	4.1	0.7	0.7	–	–	–	25.6	19.2	4.5
ASEP [393]	4–9 Nov 2002	1,202	22.8	31.8	4.0	4.0*	*	**	*	2.5**	18.6	10.9	9.0
Gallup [205]	1–24 Oct 2002	2,018	19.0	25.4	3.7	1.1	1.1	–	–	–	27.5	19.4	6.4
CIS [211]	16–21 Oct 2002	2,489	24.5	25.2	2.9	2.2	0.8	0.4	0.3	1.2	25.3	11.5	0.7
ASEP [393]	7–13 Oct 2002	1,208	27.7	24.7	4.5	4.4*	*	**	*	2.0**	19.6	11.5	3.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [216]	7–9 Oct 2002	1,507	29.5	25.8	3.2	1.7	1.3	–	–	–	21.1	8.6	3.7
CIS [217]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	10,476	23.1	26.3	3.5	2.5	1.1	0.5	0.4	1.1	26.1	10.3	3.2
ASEP [393]	9–15 Sep 2002	1,212	25.4	27.6	4.8	5.8*	*	**	*	2.3**	18.1	11.5	2.2
Gallup [228]	1–23 Aug 2002	2,008	20.8	25.3	4.2	0.5	0.9	–	–	–	25.5	20.1	4.5
Gallup [229]	2–29 Jul 2002	2,013	22.4	26.2	3.0	0.8	0.6	–	–	–	23.5	20.7	3.8
CIS [230]	16–21 Jul 2002	2,482	25.4	24.0	2.9	2.0	0.8	0.7	0.3	0.6	26.2	11.8	1.4
ASEP [393]	8–14 Jul 2002	1,212	26.0	29.8	4.8	5.7*	*	**	*	2.3**	16.3	10.5	3.8
Vox Pública/El Periódico [237]	24–26 Jun 2002	1,504	25.8	28.1	3.5	1.6	1.0	–	–	–	19.4	11.6	2.3
Gallup [238]	1–24 Jun 2002	2,016	23.2	21.6	4.0	1.0	0.6	–	–	–	24.8	21.6	1.6
ASEP [393]	10–16 Jun 2002	1,222	26.7	24.2	4.9	5.0*	*	**	*	1.9**	18.9	13.3	2.5
Gallup [244]	3–22 May 2002	2,010	25.1	25.4	3.5	0.8	1.1	–	–	–	22.3	19.0	0.3
ASEP [393]	9–17 May 2002	1,209	29.6	25.4	3.6	4.7*	*	**	*	1.1**	17.7	12.0	4.2
Gallup [250]	1–23 Apr 2002	2,017	22.0	25.3	3.1	1.2	0.7	–	–	–	25.0	19.5	3.3
CIS [251]	16–21 Apr 2002	2,498	26.8	20.9	3.6	2.5	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.7	25.6	12.5	5.9
Vox Pública/El Periódico [253]	15–17 Apr 2002	1,510	27.5	24.8	4.0	2.1	1.2	–	–	–	20.3	10.9	2.7
ASEP [393]	8–14 Apr 2002	1,216	28.7	25.9	3.7	4.4*	*	**	*	1.1**	17.8	13.8	2.8
Gallup [256]	4–27 Mar 2002	2,029	21.0	22.2	3.5	0.5	0.8	–	–	–	29.3	20.0	1.2
ASEP [393]	11–17 Mar 2002	1,220	28.9	26.2	4.0	4.1*	*	**	*	2.4**	17.3	12.2	2.7
Gallup [263]	4–27 Feb 2002	2,030	23.3	23.5	4.2	0.9	0.9	–	–	–	25.3	18.6	0.2
ASEP [393]	11–17 Feb 2002	1,214	27.9	28.5	3.0	4.8*	*	**	*	2.0**	17.0	13.3	0.6
Vox Pública/El Periódico [266]	4–5 Feb 2002	1,506	29.4	27.8	2.8	2.1	1.7	–	–	–	18.9	9.9	1.6
CIS [267]	27–31 Jan 2002	2,498	29.2	20.7	3.8	2.2	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.8	26.1	10.4	8.5
Gallup [271]	4–29 Jan 2002	2,031	26.5	21.3	3.2	0.7	1.3	–	–	–	25.6	18.0	5.2
ASEP [393]	14–19 Jan 2002	1,224	29.8	26.5	3.9	4.9*	*	**	*	1.9**	17.3	11.0	3.3
Gallup [278] [279] [280]	3–28 Dec 2001	2,020	21.5	26.2	3.7	0.9	0.8	–	–	–	26.5	16.6	4.7
ASEP [393]	10–15 Dec 2001	1,210	26.3	25.5	4.6	4.9*	*	**	*	1.7**	17.9	12.4	0.8
Gallup [286] [287] [288]	2–28 Nov 2001	2,021	24.1	22.2	3.6	0.8	1.0	–	–	–	28.7	17.0	1.9
ASEP [393]	12–17 Nov 2001	1,209	31.3	23.2	3.4	4.8*	*	**	*	1.8**	18.8	11.5	8.1
Gallup [293] [294] [295]	1–30 Oct 2001	2,016	24.6	23.3	2.7	1.4	1.8	–	–	–	27.1	16.4	1.3
CIS [296]	24–29 Oct 2001	2,499	26.8	22.4	3.5	3.2	1.2	0.6	0.5	1.1	24.0	11.2	4.4
Vox Pública/El Periódico [303]	22–23 Oct 2001	1,509	33.2	27.3	4.2	2.0	1.1	–	–	–	17.5	8.4	5.9
ASEP [393]	15–20 Oct 2001	1,212	29.7	23.7	4.7	5.2*	*	**	*	2.0**	19.6	11.7	6.0
Gallup [304] [305] [306]	6–27 Sep 2001	2,027	22.7	22.7	3.3	1.9	1.7	–	–	–	27.0	17.2	Tie
ASEP [393]	17–22 Sep 2001	1,210	28.3	22.7	4.8	4.9*	*	**	*	1.5**	21.5	11.0	5.6
Gallup [310] [311] [312]	2–30 Jul 2001	2,024	23.7	22.0	3.6	0.8	1.7	–	–	–	21.7	18.0	1.7
CIS [313]	13–18 Jul 2001	2,485	27.8	24.1	3.5	2.7	1.1	0.8	0.2	0.8	23.5	11.2	3.7
ASEP [393]	9–14 Jul 2001	1,210	25.9	27.2	4.0	5.3*	*	**	*	2.9**	16.2	12.8	1.3
Vox Pública/El Periódico [317]	25–28 Jun 2001	1,506	31.1	27.0	4.2	1.3	1.0	–	–	–	16.7	10.2	4.1
Gallup [318] [319] [320]	6–27 Jun 2001	2,008	24.9	24.7	3.3	1.9	1.7	–	–	–	23.4	16.8	0.2
ASEP [393]	11–16 Jun 2001	1,213	26.4	26.6	4.0	4.8*	*	**	*	1.6**	20.8	10.1	0.2
Gallup [328] [329] [330]	4–25 May 2001	2,031	23.8	22.3	3.3	1.4	0.6	–	–	–	31.1	14.8	1.5
ASEP [393]	11–19 May 2001	1,214	28.7	22.4	5.6	5.6*	*	**	*	2.1**	20.0	10.4	6.3
CIS [333]	20–30 Apr 2001	2,492	27.6	21.7	3.3	2.9	0.9	0.8	0.5	1.1	25.8	10.3	5.9
Gallup [335] [336] [337]	4–25 Apr 2001	2,026	24.2	22.0	3.7	0.7	1.0	–	–	–	28.8	14.8	2.2
ASEP [393]	16–21 Apr 2001	1,209	29.6	26.3	4.2	4.5*	*	**	*	2.2**	18.7	10.7	3.3
Vox Pública/El Periódico [340]	16–18 Apr 2001	1,514	31.5	26.7	2.9	2.2	1.0	–	–	–	19.5	8.9	4.8
Gallup [346] [347] [348]	5–30 Mar 2001	2,026	24.7	22.9	3.4	0.9	0.9	–	–	–	29.4	16.5	1.8
ASEP [393]	12–17 Mar 2001	1,205	27.9	26.4	5.7	5.0*	*	**	*	3.2**	16.2	11.3	1.5
Gallup [351] [352] [353]	1–26 Feb 2001	2,036	22.9	21.3	3.8	1.3	1.2	–	–	–	29.4	16.5	1.6
ASEP [393]	12–17 Feb 2001	1,212	30.2	25.7	3.8	4.9*	*	**	*	2.5**	18.3	10.8	4.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [361]	29–31 Jan 2001	1,519	29.6	26.7	3.1	1.8	1.2	–	–	–	20.0	9.3	2.9
Gallup [363] [364] [365]	8–27 Jan 2001	2,028	22.7	25.4	3.0	1.9	1.0	–	–	–	28.2	14.4	2.7
CIS [367]	18–23 Jan 2001	2,486	27.2	23.3	3.3	2.5	1.0	0.5	0.4	0.5	24.5	11.7	3.9
ASEP [393]	15–20 Jan 2001	1,211	26.1	28.0	4.2	6.8*	*	**	*	2.2**	18.2	10.1	1.9
ASEP [393]	11–16 Dec 2000	1,210	28.0	26.9	5.0	5.0*	*	**	*	2.5**	16.6	11.0	1.1
ASEP [393]	6–11 Nov 2000	1,210	30.1	25.8	4.5	4.5*	*	**	*	1.7**	19.1	10.1	4.3
Vox Pública/El Periódico [375]	30–31 Oct 2000	1,210	34.6	26.0	3.4	2.9	1.0	–	–	–	16.2	9.2	8.6
CIS [377]	17–22 Oct 2000	2,497	30.2	22.1	3.6	2.7	1.2	0.7	0.4	1.1	24.6	9.5	8.1
ASEP [393]	9–16 Oct 2000	1,212	29.7	26.4	4.2	4.5*	*	**	*	2.1**	18.6	10.4	3.3
Demoscopia/El País [380]	9 Oct 2000	?	27.9	21.7	4.2	2.7	–	–	–	–	23.7	13.7	6.2
Gallup [382] [383] [384]	1–27 Sep 2000	2,025	25.1	20.8	3.8	1.4	0.3	–	–	–	30.8	13.6	4.3
ASEP [393]	11–16 Sep 2000	1,214	31.9	22.6	5.4	5.2*	*	**	*	2.6**	17.6	10.2	9.3
CIS [385] [386]	13–18 Jul 2000	2,493	32.5	17.1	3.6	2.8	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.8	24.5	11.5	15.4
ASEP [393]	3–8 Jul 2000	1,218	37.4	23.4	4.8	5.7*	*	**	*	2.7**	15.6	7.7	14.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico [389]	26–30 Jun 2000	2,300	39.0	19.1	5.4	3.0	1.0	–	–	–	14.8	9.3	19.9
ASEP [393]	5–10 Jun 2000	1,211	36.9	21.8	5.1	5.7*	*	**	*	2.6**	14.8	10.0	15.1
ASEP [393]	8–13 May 2000	1,221	37.0	23.2	5.2	5.8*	*	**	*	1.7**	14.9	8.5	13.8
CIS [390]	29 Apr–3 May 2000	2,491	34.1	15.9	4.4	3.2	0.8	0.8	0.6	1.3	21.8	10.9	18.2
ASEP [393]	10–15 Apr 2000	1,210	36.2	22.2	4.3	6.9*	*	**	*	2.6**	14.0	9.1	14.0
ASEP [393]	13–20 Mar 2000	1,208	36.3	21.5	5.1	7.0*	*	**	*	2.7**	14.6	8.8	14.8
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—	31.0	23.7	3.8	2.9	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.6	—	30.0	7.3
(*) Includes data for CiU, PNV, EA, PAR, UPN, PA, UV, EU and CC. (**) Includes data for ERC, BNG and CHA.

Victory preference

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					PNV	Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/Cadena SER [11]	7 Mar 2004	?	35.7	41.2	–	–	–	8.0	15.1	5.5
Opina/Cadena SER [13]	6 Mar 2004	?	35.9	40.0	–	–	–	8.1	16.0	4.1
Opina/Cadena SER [20]	5 Mar 2004	?	35.6	40.1	–	–	–	7.9	16.3	4.5
Opina/Cadena SER [26]	4 Mar 2004	?	36.6	39.1	–	–	–	8.4	15.8	2.5
Opina/Cadena SER [30]	3 Mar 2004	?	37.2	39.0	–	–	–	8.0	15.8	1.8
Noxa/La Vanguardia [392]	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	2,200	36.3	42.0	–	–	–	–	–	5.7
Opina/Cadena SER [37]	2 Mar 2004	?	37.0	38.4	–	–	–	8.8	15.8	1.4
Opina/Cadena SER [42]	1 Mar 2004	?	36.5	38.6	–	–	–	9.1	15.8	2.1
Opina/El País [46]	27 Feb–1 Mar 2004	4,000	33.7	38.3	–	–	–	4.1	24.1	4.6
Opina/Cadena SER [48]	29 Feb 2004	?	37.2	37.6	–	–	–	10.3	14.9	0.4
Opina/Cadena SER [53]	28 Feb 2004	?	37.6	36.9	–	–	–	10.3	15.3	0.7
Opina/Cadena SER [55]	27 Feb 2004	?	38.1	36.4	–	–	–	9.7	15.8	1.7
Opina/Cadena SER [60]	26 Feb 2004	3,000	37.4	37.5	–	–	–	8.3	16.9	0.1
CIS [70]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	24,109	32.1	34.0	4.7	1.2	0.6	10.0	17.5	1.9
Opina/Cadena SER [396]	11 Feb 2004	1,000	36.6	39.9	–	–	–	8.1	15.4	3.3
Opina/Cadena SER [80]	31 Jan 2004	1,000	37.5	38.5	–	–	–	5.6	18.4	1.0
Opina/El País [82]	25 Jan 2004	3,000	36.6	35.5	–	–	–	6.0	21.9	1.1
Opina/Cadena SER [86]	16 Jan 2004	1,000	39.4	38.2	–	–	–	8.2	14.2	1.2
Opina/Cadena SER [91]	2 Jan 2004	?	37.1	39.2	–	–	–	5.3	18.4	2.1
Opina/Cadena SER [103]	19 Nov 2003	1,000	36.5	38.2	–	–	–	4.6	20.7	1.7
Opina/Cadena SER [113]	24 Sep 2003	1,000	36.8	36.6	–	–	–	6.5	20.1	0.2
Opina/Cadena SER [117]	10 Sep 2003	1,000	39.0	36.5	–	–	–	4.6	19.9	2.5
Opina/Cadena SER [117]	2 Sep 2003	1,000	38.9	36.2	–	–	–	6.1	18.8	2.7
Opina/Cadena SER [124]	27 Aug 2003	1,000	36.7	39.1	–	–	–	5.1	19.1	2.4
Opina/Cadena SER [139]	11 Jun 2003	?	37.4	40.1	–	–	–	5.0	17.5	2.7
Opina/Cadena SER [140]	28 May 2003	?	37.1	42.2	–	–	–	2.7	18.0	5.1
Opina/Cadena SER [140]	15 May 2003	1,000	35.6	39.8	–	–	–	4.0	20.6	4.2
Noxa/La Vanguardia [147]	22–24 Apr 2003	1,000	37.0	40.0	5.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	6.0	3.0
Opina/Cadena SER [150]	23 Apr 2003	1,000	29.3	41.6	–	–	–	3.6	25.5	12.3
Opina/Cadena SER [150]	2 Apr 2003	?	27.1	49.4	–	–	–	3.6	19.9	22.3
Opina/Cadena SER [161]	21 Mar 2003	1,000	25.9	44.1	–	–	–	4.5	25.5	18.2
Opina/Cadena SER [163]	8 Mar 2003	1,000	26.2	46.7	–	–	–	3.5	23.6	20.5
Opina/Cadena SER [169]	19 Feb 2003	1,000	27.8	44.1	–	–	–	3.5	24.6	16.3
Opina/Cadena SER [170]	6 Feb 2003	?	28.2	43.6	–	–	–	3.6	24.6	15.4
Opina/Cadena SER [178]	22 Jan 2003	1,000	28.6	41.8	–	–	–	3.3	26.3	13.2
Opina/Cadena SER [182]	8 Jan 2003	1,000	31.9	40.1	–	–	–	2.3	25.7	8.2
Opina/Cadena SER [187]	17 Dec 2002	1,000	29.8	39.3	–	–	–	3.8	27.1	9.5
Opina/Cadena SER [192]	4 Dec 2002	1,000	30.7	41.4	–	–	–	3.5	24.4	8.2
Opina/Cadena SER [198]	20 Nov 2002	1,000	33.0	38.7	–	–	–	2.8	25.5	5.7
Opina/Cadena SER [202]	6 Nov 2002	1,000	31.4	42.3	–	–	–	1.4	24.9	10.9
Opina/Cadena SER [202]	23 Oct 2002	1,000	30.6	37.6	–	–	–	3.1	27.7	7.0

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a general election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/Cadena SER [11]	7 Mar 2004	?	70.3	12.6	0.6	16.5	57.7
Opina/Cadena SER [13]	6 Mar 2004	?	70.1	12.8	0.7	16.3	57.3
Opina/Cadena SER [20]	5 Mar 2004	?	68.1	12.8	0.8	18.2	55.3
Opina/Cadena SER [26]	4 Mar 2004	?	68.2	12.9	0.9	17.9	55.3
Opina/Cadena SER [30]	3 Mar 2004	?	67.8	12.2	0.9	19.2	55.6
Opina/Cadena SER [37]	2 Mar 2004	?	68.5	11.8	0.8	18.9	56.7
Opina/Cadena SER [42]	1 Mar 2004	?	67.8	12.1	0.9	19.2	55.7
Opina/El País [46]	27 Feb–1 Mar 2004	4,000	66.2	11.4	0.3	22.2	54.8
Opina/Cadena SER [48]	29 Feb 2004	?	67.7	13.2	1.1	17.9	54.5
Opina/Cadena SER [53]	28 Feb 2004	?	67.2	13.9	1.2	17.6	53.3
Opina/Cadena SER [55]	27 Feb 2004	?	67.0	13.4	1.2	18.3	53.6
Opina/Cadena SER [60]	26 Feb 2004	3,000	66.9	13.3	0.9	18.9	53.6
Infortécnica [62]	26 Feb 2004	4,656	64.5	13.7	1.0	20.7	50.8
CIS [70]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	24,109	63.4	11.0	1.5	24.2	52.4
Opina/Cadena SER [396]	11 Feb 2004	1,000	70.8	12.3	0.6	16.3	58.5
Opina/Cadena SER [80]	31 Jan 2004	1,000	70.0	13.2	0.4	16.4	56.8
Opina/El País [82]	25 Jan 2004	3,000	67.6	11.3	0.1	21.0	56.3
Opina/Cadena SER [86]	16 Jan 2004	1,000	71.9	11.8	0.6	15.7	60.1
Opina/Cadena SER [91]	2 Jan 2004	?	70.5	9.9	0.3	19.3	60.6
Opina/Cadena SER [103]	19 Nov 2003	1,000	73.3	9.7	0.3	16.7	63.6
Opina/Cadena SER [113]	24 Sep 2003	1,000	67.6	14.5	0.3	17.6	53.1
Opina/Cadena SER [117]	10 Sep 2003	1,000	69.5	11.7	0.5	18.3	57.8
Opina/Cadena SER [117]	2 Sep 2003	1,000	68.2	16.2	0.3	15.3	52.0
Opina/Cadena SER [124]	27 Aug 2003	1,000	64.1	19.4	0.5	16.0	44.7
Opina/Cadena SER [139]	11 Jun 2003	?	56.2	22.9	0.6	20.3	33.3
Opina/Cadena SER [140]	28 May 2003	?	53.8	26.2	0.6	19.4	27.6
Opina/Cadena SER [140]	15 May 2003	1,000	45.2	31.8	0.5	22.5	13.4
Noxa/La Vanguardia [147]	22–24 Apr 2003	1,000	39.0	46.0	2.0	13.0	7.0
Opina/Cadena SER [150]	23 Apr 2003	1,000	33.3	42.6	0.4	23.7	9.3
Opina/Cadena SER [150]	2 Apr 2003	?	24.6	54.6	0.3	20.5	30.0
Opina/Cadena SER [161]	21 Mar 2003	1,000	26.6	47.1	0.6	25.7	20.5
Opina/Cadena SER [163]	8 Mar 2003	1,000	37.3	39.1	0.2	23.4	1.8
Opina/Cadena SER [169]	19 Feb 2003	1,000	34.5	38.4	0.6	26.5	3.9
Opina/Cadena SER [170]	6 Feb 2003	?	41.8	30.5	0.8	26.9	11.3
Opina/Cadena SER [178]	22 Jan 2003	1,000	51.0	24.2	0.6	24.2	26.8
Opina/Cadena SER [182]	8 Jan 2003	1,000	48.8	25.7	0.1	25.4	23.1
Opina/Cadena SER [187]	17 Dec 2002	1,000	45.4	29.1	0.6	24.9	16.3
Opina/Cadena SER [192]	4 Dec 2002	1,000	50.4	24.7	0.3	24.6	25.7
Opina/Cadena SER [198]	20 Nov 2002	1,000	58.6	20.6	0.3	20.5	38.0
Opina/Cadena SER [202]	6 Nov 2002	1,000	48.6	25.9	0.2	25.3	22.7
Opina/Cadena SER [202]	23 Oct 2002	1,000	58.5	17.7	0.3	23.5	40.8

Sub-national polling

Catalonia

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
2004 general election	14 Mar 2004	—	76.0	39.5 21	20.8 10	15.6 6	15.9 8	5.8 2	[lower-alpha 2]	18.7
Vox Pública/El Periódico [32]	1–3 Mar 2004	571	?	37.0 17/19	20.6 10/11	20.6 10/11	13.2 6/7	6.0 2	[lower-alpha 2]	16.4
Noxa/La Vanguardia [397]	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	700	?	38.0 19/20	20.3 10	20.8 10	11.4 5/6	7.4 1/2	[lower-alpha 2]	17.2
Noxa/La Vanguardia [398]	6–12 Feb 2004	600	?	37.2 18	18.2 9	22.3 11/12	12.7 6/7	7.3 2	[lower-alpha 2]	14.9
ERC [399]	8–15 Jan 2004	2,000	?	? 16/17	? 12/14	? 9/10	? 5/7	? 2/3	–	?
Vox Pública/PSC [400] [401]	16–18 Dec 2002	805	?	42.0– 43.0	20.5– 21.5	20.0– 21.0	6.5– 7.5	4.5– 5.5	[lower-alpha 2]	21.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [216]	7–9 Oct 2002	?	?	39.5	22.5	22.0	–	–	–	17.0
CIS [402] [403]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	922	76.2	36.4	25.1	20.6	7.7	5.3	–	11.3
Opina/La Vanguardia [404]	6 Nov 2000	800	?	36.0	26.5	21.0	7.5	4.0	–	9.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico [405]	26–30 Jun 2000	801	?	30.0	26.5	28.0	5.1	3.3	3.5	2.0
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—	64.0	34.1 17	28.8 15	22.8 12	5.6 1	3.5 1	2.2 0	5.3

Leadership polling

Main article: Leadership opinion polling for the 2004 Spanish general election

Notes

1. Quick count.
2. Within ICV.

References

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119. "El PP capitaliza la designación de Rajoy". El País (in Spanish). 7 September 2003.
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165. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Febrero 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 21 March 2003. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
166. "La crisis de Irak hunde al PP y el PSOE es el más votado por primera vez desde antes de 1996". El Mundo (in Spanish). 23 February 2003.
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169. "Pulsómetro 24/02/03". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 24 February 2003. Archived from the original on 13 March 2003.
170. "Pulsómetro 10/02/03". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 February 2003. Archived from the original on 21 April 2003.
171. "El PSOE supera en intención de voto al PP". El País (in Spanish). 3 February 2003.
172. "El PSOE supera en intención de voto al PP" (PDF). El País (in Spanish). 3 February 2003. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 September 2015.
173. "Barómetro de enero 2003 (Estudio nº 2477. Enero 2003)". CIS (in Spanish). 27 February 2003.
174. "El PSOE, a punto de dar alcance al PP". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 February 2003.
175. "Empate técnico en intención de voto entre PP y PSOE". Gallup España (in Spanish). 19 February 2003. Archived from the original on 11 February 2007.
176. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Enero 2003". Gallup España (in Spanish). 19 February 2003. Archived from the original on 4 June 2004.
177. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 27 de enero de 2003. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 27 January 2003. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
178. "Pulsómetro 27/01/03". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 27 January 2003. Archived from the original on 10 February 2003.
179. "El PP frena el acercamiento del PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 20 January 2003.
180. "El PSOE acorta a sólo 1,4 puntos la distancia que le llevaba el PP". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 23 January 2003. Archived from the original on 23 August 2017. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
181. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 13 de enero de 2003. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 13 January 2003. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
182. "Resultado encuesta 08/01/03". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 13 January 2003. Archived from the original on 28 January 2003.
183. "El PSOE dobla en intención directa de voto al PP entre los jóvenes". El País (in Spanish). 8 January 2003.
184. "El PSOE aventaja 2,6 puntos al PP en intención de voto". Gallup España (in Spanish). 10 January 2003. Archived from the original on 11 February 2007.
185. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Diciembre 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 10 January 2003. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
186. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 23 de diciembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 23 December 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
187. "Resultados Pulsómetro 23/12/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 23 December 2002. Archived from the original on 15 January 2003.
188. "El PSOE aventaja en tres puntos al PP tras la crisis del 'Prestige'". El País (in Spanish). 24 December 2002.
189. "El "Prestige" daña la imagen del Gobierno y el PSOE reduce su desventaja a menos de tres puntos". El Mundo (in Spanish). 16 December 2002.
190. "Encuesta diciembre 2002" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 16 December 2002.
191. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 9 de diciembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 9 December 2002. Archived from the original on 23 June 2003.
192. "Resultados Pulsómetro 09/12/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 9 December 2002. Archived from the original on 21 December 2002.
193. "Equilibrio de fuerzas". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 25 November 2002.
194. "PP y PSOE a menos de un punto de diferencia en intención de voto". Gallup España (in Spanish). 20 December 2002. Archived from the original on 11 February 2007.
195. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Noviembre 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 20 December 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
196. "PSOE y PP mantienen el empate técnico". El País (in Spanish). 1 December 2002.
197. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 25 de noviembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 25 November 2002. Archived from the original on 23 June 2003.
198. "Resultados Pulsómetro 25/11/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 25 November 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2003.
199. "El PSOE sube a costa de IU y reduce su desventaja, pero el PP mantiene su intención de voto". El Mundo (in Spanish). 11 November 2002.
200. "Encuesta noviembre 2002" (PDF). El Mundo (in Spanish). 11 November 2002.
201. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 11 de noviembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 11 November 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
202. "Resultados Pulsómetro 11/11/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 11 November 2002. Archived from the original on 28 November 2002.
203. "El PSOE alcanza al PP en pleno avance de Zapatero". El País (in Spanish). 3 November 2002.
204. "El PP y el PSOE a 5,5 puntos de diferencia en intención de voto". Gallup España (in Spanish). 9 November 2002. Archived from the original on 11 February 2007.
205. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Octubre 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 9 November 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
206. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 28 de octubre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 28 October 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
207. "Pulsómetro 28/10/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 28 October 2002. Archived from the original on 24 May 2003.
208. "Ibecom Octubre 2002". Universidad Complutense de Madrid (in Spanish). 3 November 2002.
209. "Empate entre el PP y PSOE, según El País, y gana Aznar, según La Razón". Diario de León (in Spanish). 4 November 2002.
210. "El PP cree que las encuestas demuestran el amplio apoyo de los españoles a su proyecto". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 3 November 2002.
211. "Barómetro de octubre 2002 (Estudio nº 2468. Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 26 November 2002.
212. "El PP aventaja en 4,2 puntos al PSOE, pero Zapatero se despega de Aznar en popularidad". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 27 November 2002.
213. "El PSOE, a menos de 4 puntos del PP en intención de voto". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 October 2002.
214. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 14 de octubre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 14 October 2002. Archived from the original on 22 April 2003.
215. "Resultado encuesta 09/10/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 14 October 2002. Archived from the original on 21 October 2002.
216. "El PSOE aguanta el pulso con el PP, que recupera 0,5 puntos de ventaja". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 18 October 2002. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 31 March 2013.
217. "Instituciones y Autonomías (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 19 November 2002.
218. "El PP pierde la mayoría absoluta y aventaja en sólo tres puntos al PSOE". El País (in Spanish). 29 September 2002.
219. "Encuesta España. Septiembre 2002" (PDF). Instituto Opina (in Spanish). 29 September 2002. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 May 2005. Retrieved 21 December 2020.
220. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 30 de septiembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 30 September 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
221. "Pulsómetro 30/09/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 30 September 2002. Archived from the original on 1 October 2002.
222. "Mayor Oreja encabeza las preferencias de los españoles para sustituir a Aznar". ABC (in Spanish). 22 September 2002.
223. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 16 de septiembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 September 2002. Archived from the original on 15 October 2002.
224. "Resultados Pulsómetro 16/09/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 September 2002. Archived from the original on 19 September 2002.
225. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 2 de septiembre de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 2 September 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
226. "Resultado encuesta 27/08/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 2 September 2002. Archived from the original on 27 April 2003.
227. "Los dos grandes partidos empatan en intención de voto por primera vez desde 2000". El País (in Spanish). 3 September 2002.
228. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Agosto 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 23 August 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
229. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Julio 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 29 July 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
230. "Barómetro de julio 2002 (Estudio nº 2463. Julio 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 21 August 2002.
231. "Zapatero se acerca como nunca a Aznar". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 22 August 2002.
232. "La huelga general le quitó votos a Zapatero y el PP aumenta a siete puntos la distancia con el PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 14 July 2002. Archived from the original on 8 August 2002.
233. "Voto de silencio". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 11 August 2002.
234. "Barómetro de junio 2002 (Estudio nº 2459. Junio 2002)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 30 June 2002.
235. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 1 de julio de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 July 2002. Archived from the original on 23 June 2003.
236. "Resultado encuesta 27/06/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 July 2002. Archived from the original on 18 October 2002.
237. "El PSOE se sitúa a sólo 3,2 puntos de distancia del Partido Popular". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 5 July 2002. Archived from the original on 15 March 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
238. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Junio 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 24 June 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
239. "Estimaciones de voto para elecciones al Congreso de los Diputados. "Pulsómetros" de la Cadena SER". Argos GVA (in Spanish). 3 March 2008. Archived from the original on 3 March 2008.
240. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 10 de junio de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 June 2002. Archived from the original on 23 June 2003.
241. "Barómetro de mayo 2002 (Estudio nº 2457. Mayo 2002)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 26 May 2002.
242. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 27 de mayo de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 27 May 2002. Archived from the original on 23 June 2003.
243. "Resultados Pulsómetro 27/05/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 27 May 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
244. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Mayo 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 22 May 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
245. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 13 de mayo de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 13 May 2002. Archived from the original on 23 June 2003.
246. "Resultados Pulsómetro 13/05/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 13 May 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
247. "El PSOE acorta a seis puntos la distancia con el PP en el mejor resultado de Zapatero". El Mundo (in Spanish). 3 May 2002. Archived from the original on 5 May 2002.
248. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 29 de abril de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 April 2002. Archived from the original on 13 January 2003.
249. "Resultados Pulsómetro 29/04/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 April 2002. Archived from the original on 21 September 2002.
250. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Abril 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 23 April 2002. Archived from the original on 8 April 2004.
251. "Barómetro de abril 2002 (Estudio nº 2454. Abril 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 29 May 2002.
252. "El PP baja en expectativa de voto y permite al PSOE recortar la distancia a ocho puntos". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 30 May 2002.
253. "El PSOE recorta distancias y se sitúa 4,9 puntos por detrás del PP". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 30 April 2002. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 31 March 2013.
254. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 15 de abril de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 15 April 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
255. "Resultados Pulsómetro 15/04/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 15 April 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
256. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Marzo 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 March 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
257. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 1 de abril de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 April 2002. Archived from the original on 23 April 2003.
258. "Resultados Pulsómetro 01/04/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 1 April 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
259. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 18 de marzo de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 March 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
260. "Resultados Pulsómetro 18/03/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 March 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
261. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 4 de marzo de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 March 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
262. "Pulsómetro 4 de marzo de 2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 March 2002. Archived from the original on 30 April 2003.
263. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Febrero 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 February 2002. Archived from the original on 22 June 2004.
264. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 18 de febrero de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 February 2002. Archived from the original on 5 July 2002.
265. "Resultados Pulsómetro 14/02/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 February 2002. Archived from the original on 27 April 2003.
266. "El PP se mantiene en cabeza con porcentajes de mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 18 February 2002. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 31 March 2013.
267. "Barómetro de enero 2002 (Estudio nº 2444. Enero 2002)". CIS (in Spanish). 27 February 2002.
268. "Aznar supera por primera vez a Zapatero como líder político más valorado". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 February 2002.
269. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 4 de febrero de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 February 2002. Archived from the original on 20 April 2002.
270. "Resultados Pulsómetro 30/01/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 February 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
271. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Enero 2002". Gallup España (in Spanish). 29 January 2002. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
272. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 21 de enero de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 21 January 2002. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
273. "Resultados Pulsómetro 16/01/02". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 21 January 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
274. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 7 de enero de 2002. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 January 2002. Archived from the original on 7 March 2002.
275. "Pulsómetro 08/01/2002". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 7 January 2002. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
276. "La distancia entre el PP y el PSOE se sitúa en 5 puntos, según el 'Pulsómetro' de la cadena SER". El País (in Spanish). 9 January 2002.
277. "El PP logra una ventaja de 9,2 puntos sobre el PSOE y Aznar supera en valoración a Zapatero". El Mundo (in Spanish). 3 January 2002. Archived from the original on 5 January 2002.
278. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Diciembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 28 December 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
279. "Intención de voto. Diciembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 28 December 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
280. "Ficha técnica. Diciembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 28 December 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
281. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 24 de diciembre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 24 December 2001. Archived from the original on 20 April 2002.
282. "Pulsómetro acumulado 24 diciembre 2001". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 24 December 2001. Archived from the original on 19 June 2002.
283. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 10 de diciembre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 December 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
284. "Pulsómetro 10/12/2001". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 December 2001. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
285. "El PP reduce a 2,5 puntos su ventaja sobre el PSOE tras la crisis de la LOU". El País (in Spanish). 11 December 2001.
286. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Noviembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 28 November 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
287. "Intención de voto. Noviembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 28 November 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
288. "Ficha técnica. Noviembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 28 November 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
289. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 26 de noviembre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 26 November 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
290. "Pulsómetro 26/11/2001". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 26 November 2001. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
291. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 12 de noviembre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 November 2001. Archived from the original on 21 December 2001.
292. "Pulsómetro 07/11/2001". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 November 2001. Archived from the original on 30 October 2002.
293. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Octubre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 October 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
294. "Intención de voto. Octubre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 October 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
295. "Ficha técnica. Octubre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 October 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
296. "Barómetro de octubre 2001 (Estudio nº 2433. Octubre 2001)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 22 November 2001.
297. "El PP aumenta a 9,5 puntos su distancia sobre el PSOE, según la encuesta del CIS". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 23 November 2001.
298. "El club de la lucha". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 25 January 2002.
299. "Beneficios colaterales". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 17 December 2001.
300. "La lluvia silenciosa". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 October 2001.
301. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 29 de octubre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 October 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
302. "Pulsómetro 24/10/2001". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 29 October 2001. Archived from the original on 29 March 2002.
303. "El PP mantiene sus expectativas y podría renovar su mayoría absoluta". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 28 October 2001. Archived from the original on 6 March 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
304. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Septiembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 September 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
305. "Intención de voto. Septiembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 September 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
306. "Ficha técnica. Septiembre 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 September 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
307. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 24 de septiembre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 24 September 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
308. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 10 de septiembre de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 September 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
309. "Pulsómetro 05/09/2001". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 10 September 2001. Archived from the original on 31 January 2003.
310. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Julio 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 July 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
311. "Intención de voto. Julio 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 July 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
312. "Ficha técnica. Julio 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 July 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
313. "Barómetro de julio 2001 (Estudio nº 2428. Julio 2001)". CIS (in Spanish). 27 August 2001.
314. "Aznar aumenta a 8,7 puntos su distancia del PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 28 August 2001.
315. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 9 de julio de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 9 July 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
316. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 9 de julio de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 9 July 2001. Archived from the original on 8 July 2002.
317. "El PSOE sigue acortando distancias con el PP y se coloca a 5 puntos". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 8 July 2001. Archived from the original on 8 March 2016. Retrieved 9 November 2015.
318. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Junio 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 June 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
319. "Intención de voto. Junio 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 June 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
320. "Ficha técnica. Junio 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 27 June 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
321. "El PP afronta el debate del estado de la Nación con 7,6 puntos de ventaja sobre el PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 24 June 2001. Archived from the original on 19 July 2001.
322. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 18 de junio de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 June 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
323. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 18 de junio de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 18 June 2001. Archived from the original on 12 June 2002.
324. "El PP vuelve a sacar seis puntos al PSOE en intención de voto". El País (in Spanish). 19 June 2001.
325. "Regreso al futuro". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 22 July 2001.
326. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 4 de junio de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 June 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
327. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 4 de junio de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 4 June 2001. Archived from the original on 21 December 2001.
328. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Mayo 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 25 May 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
329. "Intención de voto. Mayo 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 25 May 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
330. "Ficha técnica. Mayo 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 25 May 2001. Archived from the original on 7 May 2004.
331. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 28 de mayo de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 28 May 2001. Archived from the original on 21 December 2001.
332. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 28 de mayo de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 28 May 2001. Archived from the original on 15 November 2002.
333. "Barómetro de abril 2001 (Estudio nº 2415. Abril 2001)". CIS (in Spanish). 30 May 2001.
334. "El PP aumenta su ventaja sobre el PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 31 May 2001.
335. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Abril 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 25 April 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
336. "Intención de voto. Abril 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 25 April 2001. Archived from the original on 10 May 2004.
337. "Ficha técnica. Abril 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 25 April 2001. Archived from the original on 29 February 2004.
338. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 30 de abril de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 30 April 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
339. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 30 de abril de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 30 April 2001. Archived from the original on 29 March 2002.
340. "El PSOE sigue acortando distancias con el PP y se coloca a 5 puntos". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 28 April 2001. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 31 March 2013.
341. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 16 de abril de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 April 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
342. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 16 de abril de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 16 April 2001. Archived from the original on 6 March 2002.
343. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 9 de abril de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 9 April 2001. Archived from the original on 24 June 2003.
344. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 9 de abril de 2001. Pregunta 1". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 9 April 2001. Archived from the original on 30 April 2003.
345. "Maragall superaría a Mas en más de 20 puntos, según una encuesta encargada por el PSC". El País (in Spanish). 10 April 2001.
346. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Marzo 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 March 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
347. "Intención de voto. Marzo 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 March 2001. Archived from the original on 3 May 2004.
348. "Ficha técnica. Marzo 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 30 March 2001. Archived from the original on 3 May 2004.
349. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 19 de marzo de 2001. Índice". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 19 March 2001. Archived from the original on 23 April 2003.
350. "Pulsómetro Cadena SER - Lunes 12 de marzo de 2001. Pregunta 2". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 12 March 2001. Archived from the original on 3 May 2003.
351. "Intención de voto y valoración de líderes políticos. Febrero 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 26 February 2001. Archived from the original on 19 April 2004.
352. "Intención de voto. Febrero 2001". Gallup España (in Spanish). 26 February 2001. Archived from the original on 3 May 2004.
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