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Elections in California |
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The 2024 California's 47th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 47th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election will be held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The Southern California-based 47th district is centered in Orange County and includes the cities of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, and Seal Beach, as well as portions of Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, and Laguna Woods.
The incumbent is Democrat Katie Porter, who was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2022. She is not seeking re-election, instead choosing to run for the U.S. Senate. [1] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Republican Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics and frequently went viral for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings. [2]
The general election will pit former state assemblyman Scott Baugh, a Republican, against state senator Dave Min, a Democrat. Candidates eliminated in the primary election included Democratic attorney Joanna Weiss and Republican businessman Max Ukropina.
The race is expected to be highly competitive as it is a slightly blue suburban district with no incumbent. Both House Democrats and House Republicans have listed California's 47th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election. [3] [4] Democrat Joe Biden won the district with 54.5% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election. [5]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Scott Baugh (R) | Dave Min (D) | Max Ukropina (R) | Joanna Weiss (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 1] | February 12–14, 2024 | 366 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 27% | 22% | 9% | 16% | 9% | 17% |
RMG Research [upper-alpha 2] | November 14–19, 2023 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 17% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 4% [lower-alpha 3] | 56% |
Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Dave Min (D) | $1,731,136 | $1,507,057 | $224,079 |
Boyd Roberts (D) | $6,762 | $8,369 | $0 |
Joanna Weiss (D) | $2,151,268 [lower-alpha 4] | $1,538,667 | $612,601 |
Scott Baugh (R) | $2,010,374 | $313,132 | $1,707,928 |
Max Ukropina (R) | $595,201 | $436,787 | $158,414 |
Terry Crandall (NPP) | $13,985 | $12,461 | $1,523 |
Tom McGrath (NPP) | $14,033 | $8,895 | $5,138 |
Bill Smith (NPP) | $15,000 [lower-alpha 5] | $7,770 | $7,230 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [74] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Scott Baugh | 49,799 | 32.8 | |
Democratic | Dave Min | 39,080 | 25.7 | |
Democratic | Joanna Weiss | 28,948 | 19.0 | |
Republican | Max Ukropina | 22,729 | 15.0 | |
Republican | Long Pham | 4,195 | 2.8 | |
No party preference | Terry Crandall | 2,400 | 1.6 | |
Democratic | Boyd Roberts | 2,012 | 1.3 | |
No party preference | Tom McGrath | 1,321 | 0.9 | |
No party preference | Bill Smith | 902 | 0.6 | |
Democratic | Shariq Zaidi | 672 | 0.4 | |
Total votes | 152,058 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [77] | Lean D | February 2, 2023 |
Inside Elections [78] | Tilt D | March 10, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [79] | Tossup | February 23, 2023 |
Elections Daily [80] | Tossup | March 22, 2024 |
CNalysis [81] | Lean D | November 16, 2023 |
Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Dave Min (D) | Scott Baugh (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | October 24–30, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 4] | June 14–15, 2023 | 555 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 39% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 2] | Margin of error | Joanna Weiss (D) | Scott Baugh (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | October 24–30, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Dave Min | ||||
Republican | Scott Baugh | ||||
Total votes |
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