Attempted assassination of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi

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Attempted assassination of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi
Part of the Iraqi conflict and the aftermath of the 2021 Baghdad clashes
Baghdad - airport and green zone.jpg
The residence of the Prime Minister of Iraq is located in the Green Zone of Baghdad [1] [2]
Location Baghdad, Iraq
Date7 November 2021;2 years ago (2021-11-07)
Target Mustafa Al-Kadhimi
Weapons Drone
DeathsNone
Injured6 security guards
PerpetratorUnknown
MotiveUnknown; possibly coup d'état attempt
Accused Iran-backed militias

On 7 November 2021, the Iraqi Armed Forces reported that Prime Minister of Iraq Mustafa Al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt that morning. An explosive-laden drone attacked his Baghdad residence while two were shot down. Several members of his security personnel were injured. [3] No one has claimed responsibility, although the general consensus is that it was perpetrated by pro-Iran militias. [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] The assassination attempt was probably connected to the pro-Iran militia supporters who caused the Baghdad clashes two days before. [9] [10] [11] [12] [13]

Contents

On 8 November, Kadhimi's office released a statement that the perpetrators were the same people who assassinated Nibras Farman, an agent for the Iraqi National Intelligence Service. [14]

Background

Since the American invasion of Iraq, Iraq has been embroiled in a sectarian conflict between Sunni militants and Shi'a militias, deepening tensions between the two communities. The conflict flared up after IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the US army, leading to numerous attacks on "US troops, Iraqi armed forces and US-aligned forces", [15] [16] including a missile strike on Erbil International Airport. [15]

On October 10, 2021, elections were held in Iraq, resulting in the re-election of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the election of Mohammed al-Halbousi as parliamentary speaker, who received backing from a significant proportion of Iraq's Sunni population. [17] In contrast, Shi'ite politicians fared much more poorly, with the amount of seats belonging to Shi'ite Islamist parties dropping by two-thirds. [18]

Following the elections, the pro-Iran parties claimed electoral fraud, [19] leading to a constitutional crisis. Just two days before the attack occurred, supporters of pro-Iranian groups tried to storm the Green Zone, throwing stones at the local security forces, who responded by firing tear gas at them and shooting in the air to disperse the crowd (resulting in the death of one to two demonstrators), [20] [21] heating up tensions between Iraq's political movements. [22] [23]

According to Matthew Zais of the Atlantic Council, Iraqi warlord and the head of Asaib Al-Haq, Qais Khazali, had "described previous attacks against Americans and similarly warned the Iraqi Prime Minister" the day before the drones struck. [24]

On 8 November, a pair of anonymous regional officials and some (also anonymous) militia sources told Reuters that the attack was the fault of Shi'te militias such as Kata'ib Hezbollah or Asaib Ahl al-Haq, also alleging that the weapons used by the perpetrators were made in Iran. [25] [26]

Damage inflicted by the attack

Many parts of Kadhimi's home, including his garage, were damaged by the blast, and at least one explosion was documented. [27] Western diplomats reported hearing the noise of gunfire and explosions inside the Green Zone. [20] [28]

Iraqi government agencies described the perpetrators as using "quadcopter" drones; the same type used by Saraya Awliya al-Dam in the 2021 Erbil rocket attacks. Drones are usually used in the region by pro-Iran militias, since they are hard to be attributed to and allow larger militias and Iran to deny responsibility. [29]

Analysis

Hamdi Malik, who has studied the presence of Shi'te militias in Iraq, described it as a "clear message of 'We can create chaos in Iraq, - we have the guns, we have the means'". [25]

Tallha Abdulrazaq, writing for TRT World, wrote that "the attack can be characterized as a failed coup attempt, and as a pointed and explosive message to Kadhimi and anyone else deemed to be an impediment to the Shia militia's gangster rule in Iraq," arguing that it was a warning sign to scare off Iraq's anti-Iran movement. [13]

Two former and one current United States Defense officials expressed doubt that the assassination attempt was directly the fault of Iran, but did agree the attack was most likely committed by Shi'ite militias. [30]

Two writers for the Jean Jaures Society expressed worries that the strike could "plunge back" Iraq "into chaos in a highly flammable regional and internal context". [31]

Reactions

Inside Iraq

Flag of Iraq.svg  Iraq: The President of the Republic of Iraq, Barham Salih tweeted that "We [Iraqis] cannot accept that Iraq will be dragged into chaos and a coup against its constitutional system." [20]

From Shi'tes

Many Shi'a clerics and politicians, including Muqtada al-Sadr, denounced what they termed to be a "terrorist attack". Sadr, who had himself gained significant progress during the October elections, [19] called for the Popular Mobilization Forces to "disband," expressing condemnation of efforts by both Iran and the United States to involve themselves in Iraq's affairs. Abu Ali al-Askari, a prominent figure in Kata'ib Hezbollah, charged Sadr with hypocrisy for failing to disarm his own group, Saraya al-Salam. [32] [33]

A few weeks later, Sadr announced he had just dissolved one of his own factions, the Promised Day Brigade. [34]

Amar al-Hakim and Haider al-Abadi were among the Shi'ite leaders who condemned the attack. [10]

Several prominent Shi'ite militia leaders, including Askari and Qais Khazali, dismissed the attack as a fraud, arguing that it was an inside job by the Iraqi government. [35] [36] [37] [38]

The spokesman for Asaib al-Haq, Mahmoud al-Rubaie, tweeted that it was "a fabricated explosion… with the aim of covering up yesterday's crimes and preoccupying public opinion". [39]

From Christians

The Patriarch of the Chaldean Catholics and head of the Chaldean Catholic Church, Louis Raphaël I Sako called for prayers for Iraq and the safety of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, after the assassination attempt. [40]

From Kurds

Masoud Barzani, former president of Iraqi Kurdistan region expressed his solidarity with Kadhimi in a telephone call. [35]

International

Supranational

Misinformation

Since the drone strike, various media channels and movements have encouraged conspiracy theories related to the assassination attempt. [10] [72]

An Iraqi commentator accused U.S. forces of "purposefully deactivating the Green Zone's anti-aircraft system so the attackers could get away with the strike." [10]

Other Shi'a militias released a dossier on Telegram arguing that it was a false-flag strike and that an image of a drone used was actually a "French drone", despite the fact that the munition found at the attack had no traces to France whatsoever. The dossier also puts forth a fake photo showing the traces of an American plane, the MC-12W Liberty, but scholars discovered that the image was forged. [72]

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References

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