Background
Since the American invasion of Iraq, Iraq has been embroiled in a sectarian conflict between Sunni militants and Shi'a militias, deepening tensions between the two communities. The conflict flared up after IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the US army, leading to numerous attacks on "US troops, Iraqi armed forces and US-aligned forces", [15] [16] including a missile strike on Erbil International Airport. [15]
On October 10, 2021, parliamentary elections were held which resulted in the Sadrist Movement winning most of the seats and certain pro-Iran parties losing seats. The latter parties alleged that there was electoral fraud, [17] leading to a constitutional crisis. Just two days before the attack occurred, supporters of pro-Iranian groups tried to storm the Green Zone, throwing stones at the local security forces, who responded by firing tear gas at them and shooting in the air to disperse the crowd (resulting in the death of one to two demonstrators), [18] [19] heating up tensions between Iraq's political movements. [20] [21]
According to Matthew Zais of the Atlantic Council, Iraqi warlord and the head of Asaib Al-Haq, Qais Khazali, had "described previous attacks against Americans and similarly warned the Iraqi Prime Minister" the day before the drones struck. [22]
On 8 November, a pair of anonymous regional officials and some (also anonymous) militia sources told Reuters that the attack was the fault of Shi'te militias such as Kata'ib Hezbollah or Asaib Ahl al-Haq, also alleging that the weapons used by the perpetrators were made in Iran. [23] [24]
Damage inflicted by the attack
Many parts of Kadhimi's home, including his garage, were damaged by the blast, and at least one explosion was documented. [25] Western diplomats reported hearing the noise of gunfire and explosions inside the Green Zone. [18] [26]
Iraqi government agencies described the perpetrators as using "quadcopter" drones; the same type used by Saraya Awliya al-Dam in the 2021 Erbil rocket attacks. Drones are usually used in the region by pro-Iran militias, since they are hard to be attributed to and allow larger militias and Iran to deny responsibility. [27]
Analysis
Hamdi Malik, who has studied the presence of Shi'te militias in Iraq, described it as a "clear message of 'We can create chaos in Iraq, - we have the guns, we have the means'". [23]
Tallha Abdulrazaq, writing for TRT World, wrote that "the attack can be characterized as a failed coup attempt, and as a pointed and explosive message to Kadhimi and anyone else deemed to be an impediment to the Shia militia's gangster rule in Iraq," arguing that it was a warning sign to scare off Iraq's anti-Iran movement. [13]
Two former and one current United States Defense officials expressed doubt that the assassination attempt was directly the fault of Iran, but did agree the attack was most likely committed by Shi'ite militias. [28]
Two writers for the Jean Jaures Society expressed worries that the strike could "plunge back" Iraq "into chaos in a highly flammable regional and internal context". [29]
Since the drone strike, various media channels and movements have encouraged conspiracy theories related to the assassination attempt. [10] [70]
An Iraqi commentator accused U.S. forces of "purposefully deactivating the Green Zone's anti-aircraft system so the attackers could get away with the strike." [10]
Other Shi'a militias released a dossier on Telegram arguing that it was a false-flag strike and that an image of a drone used was actually a "French drone", despite the fact that the munition found at the attack had no traces to France whatsoever. The dossier also puts forth a fake photo showing the traces of an American plane, the MC-12W Liberty, but scholars discovered that the image was forged. [70]
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