Typhoon Guchol (2012)

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Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
Disc Plain black.svg Tropical cyclone
Solid black.svg Subtropical cyclone
ArrowUp.svg Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

In early June, a tropical disturbance, embedded within the end of a monsoon trough, formed to the southeast of Guam. [2] The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) then started to monitor the system late on June 7, as it had scattered deep convection over its poorly-defined low-level circulation center (LLCC), but was under an environment of 28–30 °C (82–86 °F) sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, good divergence and enhanced poleward outflow. [3] As the system moved westward, it significantly organized, prompting the JTWC to issue a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) by the next day. [4] However, the JTWC canceled the TCFA late on June 9, as its center became elongated. [5] The system then started to reorganize by the next day, [6] and by June 11, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the system into a tropical depression. [7] The JTWC later followed suit, as formative bands wrapped around its center. [8] As it continued westward, the system struggled to organize, with its center becoming ill-defined. [9]

By 03:00 UTC the next day, the JTWC reported that the tropical depression had intensified into a tropical storm, as improved convective banding began wrapping into its center. [10] The JMA upgraded the storm three hours later, naming it as Guchol. [11] Over the next few days, Guchol slowly intensified, as convection continued to wrap into the system. [12] By 00:00 UTC on June 14, the JMA upgraded Guchol to a severe tropical storm. [13] It subsequently entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility, with the PAGASA naming it locally as Butchoy. [14] At 15:00 UTC, the JTWC upgraded the system to a Category 1-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as it built a central dense overcast. [15] By the next day, it further strengthened to a Category 2-equivalent typhoon, as an outflow channel became apparent while it took a north-northwestward turn around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. [16] [2] At 21:00 UTC that same day, the JTWC upgraded Guchol to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon. [17] The JMA upgraded Guchol to a typhoon three hours later, on June 16. [18] Nine hours later, Guchol strengthened into a Category 4-equivalent typhoon, as a 18 nmi (33 km) symmetric eye formed. [19] Guchol ultimately reached its peak intensity at 18:00 UTC that same day, with 10-minute sustained winds of 100 knots (185 km/h; 115 mph) and a central pressure of 930 hectopascals (27 inHg), according to the JMA. [20] The JTWC estimated Guchol to have 1-minute sustained winds of 130 knots (240 km/h; 150 mph), although it noted that the system's eye had become less symmetric. [21]

By the next day, Guchol started its eyewall replacement cycle, as double eyewalls were seen in microwave imageries. [22] The system then started to weaken from its peak intensity at 12:00 UTC that day, [20] as it was completing the replacement cycle while moving into slightly cooler sea surface temperatures. [23] [2] At 09:00 UTC on June 18, Guchol weakened into a category 3-equivalent typhoon, as its eyewall deteriorated while turning to the north-northeast, along with increasing wind shear. [24] It then exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility three hours later, with the PAGASA issuing its final advisory on the system. [25] The JTWC further downgraded Guchol to a category 2-equivalent typhoon as its eye became cloud-filled. [26] On June 19, Guchol weakened to a category 1-equivalent typhoon, as its convection began to elongate while interacting with the mid-latitude westerlies, [27] before further weakening to a tropical storm as it rapidly approached the Kii Peninsula. [28] At 08:00 UTC, Guchol made its first landfall over southern Wakayama Prefecture, as it began its extratropical transition. [1] [2] Three hours later, it made its second landfall in eastern Aichi Prefecture. [1] Subsequently, the JMA downgraded Guchol to a severe tropical storm, [29] and the JTWC issued their final advisory on Guchol. [30] Traversing the Kanto-Koshin region, the system emerged to the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, with the JMA issuing their final advisory by the next day, as it fully became an extratropical cyclone. [1] [31] The remnants of the system was last noted near Hokkaido two days later. [20]

Preparations and impacts

Philippines

Although Typhoon Guchol (locally known as Butchoy) remained away from the Philippines, its slow movement enhanced the southwest monsoon over the country and resulted in widespread heavy rain. The effects of these rains were relatively limited though, with isolated flooding over parts of Marikina, Navotas, Malabon, Marilao, and Guagua, with no major damage reported. However, one person drowned in Rizal. [32]

Japan

Typhoon Guchol approaching Japan on June 19 Guchol Jun 19 2012 0355Z.jpg
Typhoon Guchol approaching Japan on June 19

Authorities issued evacuation orders for more than 150,000 people in central, eastern and northeastern Japan, with warnings of dangerous landslides from the heavy rain. 452 domestic and international flights were cancelled, affecting 35,000 passengers, while travel on regional and high-speed trains had been hit with delays and cancellations, with some roads also been closed. [33]

As the typhoon moved through Japan, heavy rainfall fell throughout the Tokai and Kanto-Koshin regions, with 24-hour rainfall records in June being broken in Mie Prefecture, Shizuoka Prefecture and Ibaraki Prefecture. Total accumulated rainfall totals of 405.5 mm (15.96 in) were reported at Miyagawa in Ōdai, and 362.5 mm (14.27 in) at Mount Amagi in Izu, Shizuoka. Hourly rainfall totals in Lake Tanzawa set a new record of 81 mm/h (3.2 in/h) since records began. Wind speeds peaked at 29.3 m/s (105 km/h; 66 mph) at Miyake, Tokyo, and 27.1 m/s (98 km/h; 61 mph) in Omaezaki, Shizuoka. The latter location also recorded wind gusts of 41.4 m/s (149 km/h; 93 mph), and 39.1 m/s (141 km/h; 87 mph) was reported in Cape Irōzaki. The weather station in Yokohama, Kanagawa Prefecture recorded gusts of 35.6 m/s (128 km/h; 80 mph), setting a new June record. [1] A 53-year old man died in Numazu, Shizuoka after being caught in a building collapse. 79 people were injured, five of which had serious injuries, along with 402 homes affected. Landslides were reported in various prefectures. [34] Total economic losses were estimated in excess of ¥8 billion (US$100 million). [35]

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 平成24年 台風第4号に関する気象速報 [Weather report regarding Typhoon No. 4 in 2012](PDF) (Report) (in Japanese). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 21, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 20, 2012. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Detailed Cyclone Reviews : Super Typhoon 05W (Guchol) (PDF) (Report). Annual Tropical Cyclone Report. Pearl Harbor, Hawaii: Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 2012. p. 41. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  3. ↑ Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Western and South Pacific Oceans, 2030Z 7 June 2012 Reissued (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 7 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2023.
  4. ↑ Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 90W) (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 8 June 2012. Archived from the original on June 9, 2012. Retrieved 24 September 2023. Alt URL
  5. ↑ Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 90W) Cancellation (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 9 June 2012. Archived from the original on June 10, 2012. Retrieved 24 September 2023. Alt URL
  6. ↑ Special Weather Statement 648 am ChST Mon Jun 11 2012 (Report). Tiyan, Guam: National Weather Service. June 10, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2023.
  7. ↑ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 110000 (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 11, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2023.
  8. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 05W (Five) Warning No. 1 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 11 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
  9. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Depression 05W (Five) Warning No. 3 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 11 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
  10. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 05W (Five) Warning No. 5 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 12 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 25 September 2023.
  11. ↑ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 120600 (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 12, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved September 25, 2023.
  12. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 10 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 13 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  13. ↑ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 140000 (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 14, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  14. ↑ Tropical Storm "BUTCHOY" Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE (Report). Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. June 14, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  15. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 15 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 14 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  16. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 17 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 15 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  17. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 20 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 15 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  18. ↑ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 160000 (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 16, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  19. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 22 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 16 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  20. 1 2 3 "2012 Super Typhoon GUCHOL (2012162N06150)". International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Project. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  21. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Category 4-Equivalent Super Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 24 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 16 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  22. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Category 4-Equivalent Super Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 25 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 17 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  23. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Category 4-Equivalent Super Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 27 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 17 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  24. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 30 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 18 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  25. ↑ Typhoon "BUTCHOY" (GUCHOL) Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE (FINAL) (Report). Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. June 18, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  26. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 31 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 18 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  27. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Typhoon 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 33 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 19 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  28. ↑ Prognostic Reasoning for Tropical Storm 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 34 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 19 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  29. ↑ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 191200 (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 19, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  30. ↑ Tropical Storm 05W (Guchol) Warning No. 35 (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 19 June 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2023.
  31. ↑ RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory 200000 (Report). Japan Meteorological Agency. June 20, 2012. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  32. ↑ "Final Report re Effects of Southwest Monsoon and Typhoon "Butchoy" (Guchol)" (PDF). National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. June 26, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 23, 2013. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
  33. ↑ AFP (June 20, 2012). "One dead as powerful typhoon cuts across Japan". Yahoo! News. Archived from the original on June 23, 2012. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  34. ↑ 平成２４年台風第４号による被害状況等について [Regarding the damage caused by Typhoon No. 4 of 2012](PDF) (Report) (in Japanese). Cabinet of Japan. August 16, 2012. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  35. ↑ "June 2012 Global Catastrophe Recap" (PDF). AON Benfield. July 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 4, 2012. Retrieved August 7, 2012.
Typhoon Guchol (Butchoy)
Guchol Jun 17 2012 0230Z.jpg
Typhoon Guchol at peak intensity on June 17
Tropical cyclones of the 2012 Pacific typhoon season
2012 Pacific typhoon season summary.png
TD
TD
TD
01W
TD
TD
TS
Pakhar
TD
TD
TD
TD
STS
Sanvu
TY
Mawar
VSTY
Guchol
STS
Talim
TS
Doksuri
STS
Khanun
TY
Vicente
TY
Saola
TY
Damrey
TY
Haikui
STS
Kirogi
TD
TD
TY
Kai-tak
TY
Tembin
VSTY
Bolaven
TD
TD
VITY
Sanba
TD
TD
VITY
Jelawat
STS
Ewiniar
STS
Maliski
STS
Gaemi
VSTY
Prapiroon
STS
Maria
VSTY
Son-Tinh
TD
25W
VSTY
Bopha
TS
Wukong
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