Country risk

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Country risk refers to the risk of investing or lending in a country, arising from possible changes in the business environment that may adversely affect operating profits or the value of assets in the country. For example, financial factors such as currency controls, devaluation or regulatory changes, or stability factors such as mass riots, civil war and other potential events contribute to companies' operational risks. This term is also sometimes referred to as political risk; however, country risk is a more general term that generally refers only to risks influencing all companies operating within or involved with a particular country.

Contents

Political risk analysis providers and credit rating agencies use different methodologies to assess and rate countries' comparative risk exposure. Credit rating agencies tend to use quantitative econometric models and focus on financial analysis, whereas political risk providers tend to use qualitative methods, focusing on political analysis. However, there is no consensus on methodology in assessing credit and political risks.

Ratings

Country risk rankings Q4 2017The least-risky countries for investment
RankRank changeCountryOverall score
1 Singapore 88.6
2 Norway 87.66
3 Switzerland 87.64
4 Denmark 85.67
5▲2 Sweden 85.59
6▼1 Luxembourg 83.85
7▼1 Netherlands 83.76
8▲4 Finland 83.1
9 Canada 82.98
10▲1 Australia 82.18
Score out of 100. Rank change to previous quarter.

Source: Euromoney Country Risk - published January 2018. [1]


The least-risky countries for investment. Ratings are further broken down into components including political risk, economic risk. Euromoney's quarterly country risk index “Country risk survey” monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries. Results focus foremost on economics, specifically sovereign default risk and/or payment default risk for exporters (a.k.a. “trade credit” risk).

Partial list of credit risk rating agencies

Partial list of political risk analysis organizations

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">S&P Global Ratings</span> American credit rating agency

S&P Global Ratings is an American credit rating agency (CRA) and a division of S&P Global that publishes financial research and analysis on stocks, bonds, and commodities. S&P is considered the largest of the Big Three credit-rating agencies, which also include Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Its head office is located on 55 Water Street in Lower Manhattan, New York City.

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Fitch Ratings Inc. is an American credit rating agency and is one of the "Big Three credit rating agencies", the other two being Moody's and Standard & Poor's. It is one of the three nationally recognized statistical rating organizations (NRSRO) designated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 1975.

Moody's Ratings, previously known as Moody's Investors Service, often referred to as Moody's, is the bond credit rating business of Moody's Corporation, representing the company's traditional line of business and its historical name. Moody's Ratings provides international financial research on bonds issued by commercial and government entities. Moody's, along with Standard & Poor's and Fitch Group, is considered one of the Big Three credit rating agencies. It is also included in the Fortune 500 list of 2021.

Sovereign credit is the credit of a sovereign country backed by the financial resources of that state. Sovereign credit is the opposite of sovereign debt. Fiat money is sovereign credit and sovereign bonds are sovereign debts. When money buys bonds, sovereign credit cancels sovereign debt.

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<i>Euromoney</i> English-language monthly magazine

Euromoney is an English-language monthly magazine focused on business and finance. First published in 1969, it is the flagship production of Euromoney Institutional Investor plc.

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A Credit Derivatives Product Company (CDPC) is a business focused on trading in credit default swaps contracts. CDPC typically sells insurance against someone failing to pay back a loan ('defaulting'). A CDPC is usually highly leveraged, meaning that if even a portion of its held credit default portfolio were to be 'triggered' at once, the CDPC would not have the capital to fully pay out the resulting insurance claims.

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Several credit rating agencies around the world have downgraded their credit ratings of the U.S. federal government, including Standard & Poor's (S&P) which reduced the country's rating from AAA (outstanding) to AA+ (excellent) on August 5, 2011.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">ICRA Limited</span> Indian Credit Rating Company

ICRA Limited (ICRA) is an Indian independent and professional investment information and credit rating agency. The company was established in 1991, and was originally named Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited.

China Chengxin Credit Rating Group was founded in Beijing on 8 October 1992 through the incorporation of China Chengxin Credit Management Co Ltd, which is the first nationwide credit rating company of China. Subsequently, it formed subsidiaries and established branches across China, including China Chengxin International Credit Rating Company Limited. The share-holder structure of the joint venture company was changed in 2006 when Moody's came in to take over the equity positions of Fitch and the supranational institution. The company is one of the few major credit rating agencies currently operating in China.

Demotech, Inc., is an American insurance rating agency headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, that focuses on independent, regional, and specialty companies in the property and casualty insurance (P&C) industry. It is independent from the companies that it rates.

References

  1. Archived 2018-10-01 at the Wayback Machine : Survey which monitors the political and economic stability of 185 sovereign countries, according to ratings agencies and market experts. The information is compiled from Risk analysts; poll of economic projections; on GNI; World Bank’s Global Development Finance data; Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch IBCA; OECD consensus groups (source: ECGD); the US Exim Bank and Atradius UK; heads of debt syndicate and loan syndications; Atradius, London Forfaiting, Mezra Forfaiting and WestLB.

Downloadable country analysis and reports