Opinion polling for the next Peruvian general election

Last updated

In the Peruvian electoral system, for a candidate to be proclaimed the winner, they must obtain more than 50% of valid votes. In case no candidate achieves that percentage in the first electoral round, the two candidates with the most votes participate in a second round or ballot.

Contents

In the run-up to the next Peruvian general election, various organizations conduct opinion polls to measure the intention to vote in Peru in the previous period. The results of these surveys are shown in this article. The date range for these opinion polls is from the runoff of the previous general election, held on 6 June 2021, to the present.

Voting intention estimates refer mainly to a hypothetical election of the President of the Republic. Intent polls and mock ballots are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates the poll was conducted in the field rather than the date of publication. When fieldwork dates are unknown, the publication date is given instead.

Peruvian electoral law prohibits the dissemination of polls in the week prior to the day of the electoral suffrage.

Presidential

Graphical summary

* Ineligible for presidency

Voting preferences

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Keiko Fujimori 2 (cropped).jpg Pedro Castillo 2022 (cropped).png Martin Vizcarra em fevereiro de 2018.png Portrait placeholder.svg Hernando de Soto (cropped).jpg Rafael Lopez Aliaga (cropped).png Veronika Fanny Mendoza Frisch.jpg Yonhy Lescano 2012 (cropped).jpg Salvador del Solar, primer ministro del Peru.jpg Alfonso Lopez-Chau.jpg Daniel Urresti (cropped).png Portrait placeholder.svg Francisco Sagasti Hochhausler.jpg George Forsyth, alcalde de La Victoria.jpg Anibal Torres.jpg OthersBlank
vote		Undecided
Fujimori Castillo [lower-alpha 1] Vizcarra [lower-alpha 2] Humala de Soto L. Aliaga Mendoza Lescano del Solar L. Chau Urresti Chiabra Sagasti Forsyth Torres
Fuerza popular.svg Ind. Logo de Peru Primero.jpg ANTAURO partido logo.svg Ind. Renovacion Popular logo.svg Juntos Por El Peru.svg Accion Popular.svg Ind. Ind. Logo Podemos Peru.png Ind. Partido Morado logo.svg Logo Partido Democratico Somos Peru.svg Ind.
IEP/La República [1] 16–21 Mar 20241,2074.43.33.32.12.31.0–0.60.71.7–––––9.8 [lower-alpha 3] 26.844.0
Sensor [2] 19–23 Feb 20241,2006.3––3.71.32.92.53.2––1.3––––17.4 [lower-alpha 4] –61.5
IEP/La República [3] 8–13 Dec 20231,2104.14.33.01.01.81.20.61.10.7––0.4–––6.9 [lower-alpha 5] 27.647.5
CPI [4] 13–18 Nov 20231,2002.71.92.41.42.63.20.80.8–0.2––0.9––8.5 [lower-alpha 6] 15.559.1
CPI/RPP [5] 11–15 Jul 20231,2004.83.2–5.64.69.82.4–––––2.7––5.320.641.0
CIT/Expreso [6] 29–31 May 20231,2009.6––7.38.212.83.2––––4.3–2.3–7.6–45.0
CPI/RPP [7] 23–28 Apr 20231,2006.34.1–5.85.69.12.61.8––––2.2–2.75.818.335.7
CIT/Expreso [8] 20–22 Apr 20231,2009.6––7.58.613.51.4–––4.04.3–2.4–11.519.218.0
CPI/RPP [9] 7–10 Mar 20231,2003.12.22.33.75.18.22.0–––––2.1–1.06.9 [lower-alpha 7] 16.946.5
IEP/La República [10] 18–22 Feb 20231,2012.42.12.01.34.22.81.11.20.54.50.8–0.20.12.12.6 [lower-alpha 8] 21.749.4
CIT/Expreso [11] 16–18 Feb 20231,200–––9.39.411.82.0–2.9–3.84.1–2.4–9.024.021.2
CPI/RPP [12] 24–27 Jan 20231,2003.21.22.41.65.28.61.10.7––0.9–0.7–1.48.413.850.9
IEP/La República [13] 21–25 Jan 20231,2142.11.81.51.13.63.31.71.70.60.80.5–0.80.30.93.417.358.8
CIT/Expreso [14] 18–20 Jan 20231,200–––9.89.312.22.0–2.8–3.54.3–2.5–7.922.023.8
CPI [15] 16–20 Nov 20221,2007.0–3.69.07.29.71.91.10.8–1.80.71.11.0–4.228.620.8
CPI [16] 6–9 Sep 20221,2003.9–3.45.36.25.91.62.3––1.92.43.30.9–4.414.943.2
CPI [17] 3–10 Aug 20221,2003.6–2.21.54.84.21.91.81.3––1.31.6––8.08.558.7
CPI [18] 28 Jun–2 Jul 20221,1284.8–2.01.05.07.22.31.80.9–1.01.01.1––4.813.054.1
Election Results –13.418.9––11.611.87.99.1––5.6––5.7–10.11.6–

Parliamentary

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Peru Libre logo.svg Fuerza popular.svg Renovacion Popular logo.svg Accion Popular.svg Alianza para el Progreso Peru.svg Avanza Pais Logo 2017-20.jpg Juntos Por El Peru.svg Logo Partido Democratico Somos Peru.svg Logo Podemos Peru.png Partido Morado logo.svg Logo of the Agricultural People's Front of Peru.png APRA Peru logo.svg Frente de la Esperanza 2021 (logo).svg Partido Patriotico del Peru (logo).svg Partido Politico PRIN - Simbolo.png Fe en el Peru (logo).svg Democrata Verde (logo).svg Lead
Ipsos/Perú21 [19] 9–10 Nov 20231,2055.08.03.05.04.04.02.04.0–2.03.02.0–––––3.0
Datum [20] 30 Jun – 4 Jul 20238965.07.01.06.03.03.02.05.01.02.02.02.0–––––1.0
CIT/Expreso [21] [lower-alpha 9] 20–22 Mar 20231,2003.512.513.95.09.111.25.213.1–1.61.47.9–1.36.07.31.30.8
CIT/Expreso [11] [lower-alpha 9] 16–18 Feb 20231,2002.913.314.16.910.813.04.415.7–2.71.33.3––4.75.11.21.6
Ipsos Perú/América TV [22] 9–10 Feb 20231,2105.08.03.04.04.04.02.0–1.02.0–2.01.0––––4.0
CIT/Expreso [23] [lower-alpha 9] 18–20 Jan 20231,2002.714.616.9–12.414.94.917.9–3.01.5––1.04.85.4–1.0
2022 municipal 2 Oct 2022–2.51.210.11.99.54.34.113.89.70.2––5.80.1–––3.7
2021 general 11 Apr 2021–13.4
37		11.3
24		9.3
13		9.0
16		7.5
15		7.5
7		6.6
5		6.1
5		5.8
5		5.4
3		4.6
0		––––––2.1

Notes

  1. ↑ Castillo is not eligible for a second term.
  2. ↑ Vizcarra has been banned from holding public office until 2031.
  3. ↑ Including Arturo Fernández at 0.8%, Alberto Fujimori at 0.7%, Ulises Villegas at 0.7%, César Acuña at 0.7%, Ulises Villegas at 0.4% and Fiorella Molinelli at 0.2%
  4. ↑ Including César Acuña at 1.7%, Fernando Cillóniz at 1.2%, Julio Guzmán at 0.8%, Susel Paredes at 0.6%, Ulises Villegas at 0.4% and Fiorella Molinelli at 0.2%
  5. ↑ Including Alberto Fujimori at 0.4%
  6. ↑ Including César Acuña at 0.4%, Carlos Añaños at 0.3% and Carlos Álvarez Loayza at 0.1%
  7. ↑ Including Álvaro Paz de la Barra at 1.6%
  8. ↑ Including Cecilia García at 0.4%, Ricardo Belmont at 0.4%, César Acuña at 0.3% and Ollanta Humala at 0.1%
  9. 1 2 3 Undecided and/or abstainers excluded

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References

  1. ↑ "IEP Informe de opinión de marzo 2024 - (informe completo)" (PDF). iep.org.pe. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  2. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión pública FEBRERO 2023" (PDF). sensor.pe. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
  3. ↑ "IEP Informe de Opinión – Diciembre 2023 (Informe completo)" (PDF). iep.org.pe. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  4. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional PERÚ URBANO RURAL Campo: 13 al 18 de noviembre de 2023" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  5. ↑ "Peru, CPI Poll: Presidential election (open question)" (PDF).
  6. ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural – Aprobación Gubernamental de Junio". citopinion.pe. 28 June 2023. Retrieved 26 August 2023.
  7. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - PERÚ URBANO RURAL (Campo: 23 al 28 de abril de 2023)" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 7 May 2023.
  8. ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural – Aprobación Gubernamental". citopinion.pe. 28 April 2023. Retrieved 17 May 2023.
  9. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - PERÚ URBANO RURAL (Campo: 07 al 10 de marzo de 2023)" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 14 March 2023.
  10. ↑ "IEP Informe de Opinión – Febrero 2023 (Informe completo)" (PDF). iep.org.pe. 26 February 2023.
  11. 1 2 "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural". citopinion.pe. 24 February 2023.
  12. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 24 al 27 de enero 2023)" (PDF). cpi.pe. Retrieved 30 January 2023.
  13. ↑ Pereda, David (29 January 2023). "Un 73% del país: Que elecciones generales sean este mismo año". larepublica.pe (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 January 2023.
  14. ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural – Aprobación Gubernamental – CIT Opinion" (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 February 2023.
  15. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 16 al 20 de Noviembre de 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 24 November 2022.
  16. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 05 al 08 de septiembre de 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 8 September 2022.
  17. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 3 al 10 de agosto de 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 12 August 2022.
  18. ↑ "Estudio de Opinión Pública Nacional - Perú Urbano Rural (Campo: 28 de junio al 2 de julio 2022)" (PDF). cpi.pe. 6 July 2022.
  19. ↑ "ESTUDIO DE OPINIÓN INFORME DE RESULTADOS Noviembre, 2023" (PDF). ipsos.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 January 2024.
  20. ↑ citopinion (July 2023). "Estudio de Opinión Pública - Popularidad + Coyuntura - Julio 2023" (PDF). Datum (in Spanish). Retrieved 26 August 2023.
  21. ↑ citopinion (2023-03-28). "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural | CIT Opinión Marzo 2023". CIT Opinion (in Spanish). Retrieved 2023-05-13.
  22. ↑ "Informe de Resultados. Estudio de opinión para América Televisión. Perú, 10 de febrero de 2023" (PDF). ipsos.com (in Spanish). 28 February 2023.
  23. ↑ "Encuesta Nacional Urbano Rural". citopinion.pe. 26 January 2023.
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