Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.

Contents

To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%. [1]

Pollster bias

The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:

PollsterAlleged biasSource
Research PartnerThe company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling. [2] [3]
CBOSThe institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years. [4] [5]

Graphical summary

Polish Opinion Polling for the 2027 Election.png

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2024

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Nonpartisan Local Government Activists There is One Poland OthersDon't knowLead
Polish Coalition Poland 2050
IBRiS 3 Jun1,06731.333.111.68.29.00.26.61.8
Opinia24 27–28 May1,00129.829.711.28.311.63.61.00.54.30.1
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 May1,06830.331.812.78.97.009.31.5
CBOS 20–23 May1,0003030999113Tie
Pollster / "SE.pl" 19 May1,03132.4932.1510.879.339.463.162.540.34
Opinia24 13–14 May1,00030.132.513.37.012.11.73.32.4
Research Partner 10–13 May1,05131.529.711.49.19.11.50.57.21.8
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 May1,00033.332.011.69.09.80.14.21.3
CBOS 22–26 Apr1,0002628117142122
United Surveys / WP.pl 19–21 Apr1,00032.132.612.18.67.67.00.5
IBRiS / "Rz" 19–20 Apr1,07131.428.913.58.88.23.75.72.5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 18–19 Apr1,07432.7732.3111.179.239.642.891.750.240.4
CBOS 8–11 Apr1,00023351051421112
Opinia24 8–9 Apr1,00026.433.811.86.68.54.52.00.65.87.4
Local elections 7 Apr14,417,06534.2730.5914.256.327.233.014.333.68
OGB 3–5 Apr1,00034.7533.3413.024.4710.382.281.761.41
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr1,06829.030.511.89.58.41.98.91.5
Opinia24 2-3 Apr29.136.014.78.310.41.56.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 22–23 Mar1,06730.031.910.79.58.69.31.9
CBOS 18–22 Mar1,000242998131175
Pollster / "SE.pl" 16–17 Mar1,07232.0230.8113.579.199.882.791.340.401.21
Research Partner 8–11 Mar1,08829.130.29.08.58.02.412.81.1
Opinia24 6–7 Mar1,00024.632.814.29.310.12.31.30.74.78.2
CBOS 4–7 Mar1,0002329129112136
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl 1–6 Mar1,00127321510106 [lower-alpha 1] 5
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb1,00030291361232141
United Surveys / WP.pl 23–25 Feb1,00028.232.615.28.59.11.15.34.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 Feb1,07130.132.614.78.77.66.32.5
CBOS 19–22 Feb1,0002229157112147
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb1,03430.8531.1717.078.208.061.742.230.680.32
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb1,00032.9834.2015.254.899.362.530.791.22
CBOS 12–15 Feb1,0002429118112155
Research Partner 9–12 Feb1,08130.129.813.69.36.81.61.17.70.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 11 Feb1,06030.3132.3214.789.018.771.941.791.082.01
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–11 Feb1,00029.031.715.310.28.00.05.82.7
Opinia24 6–7 Feb1,00124.031.016.89.18.71.52.21.15.77.0
31 JanPresident Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jan1,00028.328.218.99.67.61.06.40.1
CBOS 22–26 Jan1,000242914911595
Research Partner 19–22 Jan1,11930.330.113.510.16.72.21.16.00.2
Pollster / "SE.pl" 13–14 Jan1,04832.7831.6916.797.857.891.281.500.221.09
United Surveys / "WP.pl" 12–14 Jan1,00028.427.516.910.46.81.58.50.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan1,06733.930.216.99.36.30.52.93.7
CBOS 8–12 Jan1,000292910710412Tie
Opinia24 8–9 Jan1,00226.324.317.39.410.91.70.90.38.92.0
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan1,00034.232.014.18.85.00.95.02.2
2023 parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct21,596,674 [6] [lower-alpha 2] 35.3830.7014.408.617.161.861.630.224.68

2023

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Nonpartisan Local Government Activists There is One Poland OthersDon't knowLead
Polish Coalition Poland 2050
Pollster / SE.pl 17 Dec1,03333.1531.2816.958.376.731.461.740.321.87
United Surveys / WP.pl 15–17 Dec1,00033.028.419.18.77.70.82.34.6
CBOS 2–8 Dec1,000302513993125
IPSOS / More in Common Polska 1–8 Dec1,507312615107355
Opinia24 5–6 Dec29.224.717.38.08.01.71.20.39.64.5
United Surveys / WP.pl 1–3 Dec1,00035.228.816.010.07.72.36.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 1–2 Dec1,07131.527.07.310.39.39.01.83.84.5
CBOS 20–24 Nov821292413885135
United Surveys / WP.pl 17–19 Nov1,00031.326.714.410.49.12.25.94.6
Social Changes / wPolityce.pl 10–13 Nov1,08133321499211
Pollster / SE.pl 7–8 Nov1,01435.3430.7716.686.907.011.361.750.194.57
United Surveys / WP.pl 3–5 Nov1,00033.230.416.18.56.00.35.52.8
IBRiS / "Rz" 3–5 Nov1,07132.629.27.87.69.17.01.15.63.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Oct1,00032.829.918.75.46.53.53.22.9
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct21,596,674 [6] [lower-alpha 2] 35.3830.7014.408.617.161.861.630.224.68

Seat projection

231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/LinkFieldwork
Period
Sample Size United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation German Minority MajorityKO+TDKO+L+TD
Polish Coalition Poland 2050
IBRiS 3 Jun 20241,0671791744825340Hung–817
Opinia24 13–14 May1,0001681636018510Hung–711
Research Partner 10–13 May1,0511801565133391Hung–2310
United Surveys / WP.pl 19-21 Apr 20241,0001731765332250Hung–131
OGB 3–5 Apr 20241,000189175530421Hung–2–2
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr 20241,0681651755238300Hung–335
IBSP / Stan Polityki 11 Mar 20241,0001661667517360Hung1128
Research Partner 8–11 Mar 20241,0881801704235330Hung–1817
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 20241,0001761576312520Hung–102
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb 20241,0341691568026290Hung632
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb 20241,000178173690391Hung1212
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 20241,0811761596640191Hung–535
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan 20241,0001771557834160Hung337
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan 20241,000194166672940Hung332
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 202321,596,674 [6] [lower-alpha 2] 1941576526180Hung–818

Senate Seat projection

51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/LinkFieldwork
Period
Sample Size Senate Pact United Right Confederation Majority
Civic Coalition Polish Coalition Poland 2050 The Left SP Ind
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 20241,0817426024
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 202321,402,998 [6] [lower-alpha 3] 6634016

Government approval ratings

President Andrzej Duda

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveDon't know/NeutralNet approval
20 May–2 Jun 2024 CBOS 1,03842499–7
22–23 Apr 2024 IBRiS / Onet 44.545.39.8–0.8
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,07944497–5
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet 39.751.48.9–11.7
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,08950391111
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994444511–1
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10040.950.68.5–9.7
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 9944052–12
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,01546424
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,01543498–6

Prime Minister Donald Tusk

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveDon't know/NeutralNet approval
22–23 Apr 2024 IBRiS / Onet 45.049.05.7–4.0
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,079414811–7
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet 39.251.49.3–12.2
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,0894443131
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 9944641135
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10037.646.016.4–8.4
30 Jan –5 Feb 2024 CBOS 994434710–4
Morning Consult 523814

Government

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherDon't knowNet approvalNotes
10–12 May 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,00050.146.23.73.9Tusk's government
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,0793537253–2Tusk's government
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,0893738223–1Tusk's government
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 99441342237Tusk's government
12–14 Jan 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,00054.540.35.214.2Tusk's government
12–13 Jan 2024 IBRIS / RZ 1,06756.336.96.819.4Tusk's government

Notes

  1. Sovereign Poland – 4
  2. 1 2 3 Turnout: 74.38%
  3. Turnout: 74.31%

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References

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  2. "Test".
  3. "Test".
  4. https://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/
  5. "Test".
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.