Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Contents

Electoral polling

Graphical summary

A local regression graph of all polls conducted Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election.svg
A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

2024

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas Slovakia–KÚ–ZĽ coalition KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats SR ĽSNS OthersLead
Slovakia KÚ ZĽ
Ipsos [1] 14–21 May 202474325.0%21.0%14.0%4.9%7.1%8.0%3.5%5.1%4.1%3.4%2.9%––4.0
15 May 2024 Attempted assassination of Robert Fico: Prime Minister Robert Fico is injured in a shooting which is being treated as an assassination attempt.
AKO [2] 7–14 May 20241,00021.8%20.8%17.2%4.7%7.3%6.7%5.2%5.1%3.9%3.6%3.1%–0.6%1.0
Focus [3] 17–24 Apr 20241,01721.1%19.7%18.0%5.2%6.9%7.0%5.3%5.5%4.5%3.5%2.3%0.9%0.1%1.4
AKO [4] 9–16 Apr 20241,00021.2%20.1%16.5%5.2%7.9%6.5%5.1%4.9%4.9%3.3%2.3%0.8%1.3%1.1
Focus [5] 28–4 Apr 20241,01521.6%20.1%17.9%6.4%6.3%5.4%5.1%4.6%5.0%3.7%1.8%1.9%–1.5
Ipsos [6] 16–19 Mar 20241,00921.6%20.2%16.3%5.8%6.2%6.7%4.1%5.0%4.6%3.8%3.0%––1.4
AKO [7] 11–18 Mar 20241,00022.1%21.0%15.9%5.6%8.1%6.7%5.1%3.9%4.6%3.2%2.0%1.3%0.5%1.1
Ipsos [8] 12–16 Mar 20241,03823.4%20.8%17.1%5.6%6.2%6.3%5.3%4.2%3.6%2.6%3.1%––2.6
Focus [9] 14–21 Feb 20241,02521.1%18.9%17.2%5.9%6.1%6.2%5.8%4.2%5.4%3.5%2.6%2.7%0.4%2.2
Ipsos [10] 16–21 Feb 20241,02822.7%21.3%16.5%5.8%6.7%6.4%4.2%5.2%3.4%2.4%3.2%1.6%0.5%1.4
NMS [11] 14–18 Feb 20241,02221.0%22.0%16.9%6.0%7.2%5.7%4.2%5.8%3.3%2.5%3.6%1.6%0.2%1.0
AKO [12] 5–12 Feb 20241,00024.0%22.6%14.5%6.0%8.2%6.2%5.3%3.7%4.6%1.5%2.8%0.2%0.4%1.4
Ipsos [13] 22–25 Jan 20241,02224.5%20.6%15.4%5.3%6.6%6.6%4.3%5.1%4.0%3.0%2.4%1.6%0.5%3.9
Focus [14] 16–23 Jan 20241,01521.6%19.4%17.9%6.5%6.2%5.5%5.7%4.8%4.6%3.5%2.4%1.7%0.2%2.2
AKO [15] 11–16 Jan 20241,04822.1%19.9%14.3%7.0%8.7%6.0%5.4%5.3%4.3%3.2%2.4%0.4%0.4%2.2
NMS [16] 10–14 Jan 20241,03022.3%21.1%14.7%6.0%6.9%6.9%4.5%6.5%3.4%3.1%3.3%0.5%0.7%1.2
2023 elections 30 Sep 20232,967,89622.95%17.96%14.70%8.90%6.82%6.32%5.63%4.75%4.39%2.93%2.21%0.84%1.60%4.99

2023

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas Slovakia–KÚ–ZĽ coalition KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats SR ĽSNS OthersLead
Slovakia KÚ ZĽ
Ipsos [17] 13–18 Dec 20231,04824.1%19.4%15.7%5.9%6.4%7.1%4.8%5.2%4.0%3.6%2.7%0.8%0.5%4.7
AKO [18] 11–13 Dec 20231,00024.2%21.4%14.6%6.8%7.3%6.4%5.3%5.4%3.6%2.0%2.3%0.2%–2.8
Focus [19] 15–22 Nov 20231,01523.8%17.9%14.6%6.4%7.5%6.4%5.8%5.3%5.0%2.9%2.8%1.2%0.4%5.9
AKO [20] 7–14 Nov 20231,00024.0%20.1%15.4%6.6%6.9%5.9%5.4%4.9%4.4%2.3%2.7%0.3%0.1%3.9
Ipsos [21] 2–7 Nov 20231,02124.0%19.1%15.1%7.0%5.8%6.3%5.1%5.8%4.4%3.1%2.3%1.1%1.0%4.9
2023 elections 30 Sep 20232,967,89622.95%17.96%14.70%8.90%6.82%6.32%5.63%4.75%4.39%2.93%2.21%0.84%1.60%4.99

Seat projections

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas Slovakia–KÚ–ZĽ coalition KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Lead Gov. Opp.
Focus [22] 17–24 Apr 20241,01738363301212910028070
AKO [23] 9–16 Apr 20241,00041393201513100028367
Focus [24] 28–4 Apr 20241,0154037330101290938268
AKO [25] 11–18 Mar 20241,00042403001513100028268
Focus [26] 14–21 Feb 20241,025393532011121101048268
AKO [27] 5–12 Feb 20241,00045422701511100058268
Focus [28] 16–23 Jan 20241,01543383501211110058961
AKO [29] 11–16 Jan 20241,04837342412151099057080
AKO [30] 11–13 Dec 20231,00043382601311910057872
Focus [31] 15–22 Nov 20231,01542312501311109987773
AKO [32] 7–14 Nov 20231,00047393001311100088763
2023 elections 30 Sep 20232,967,896423827161211100047971

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References

  1. ↑ "Prieskum Ipsosu: eurovoľby by nevyhralo PS, ale Smer, Republika má deväť percent". Denník N (in Slovak). 22 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  2. ↑ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by v máji vyhral Smer pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 27 May 2024. Retrieved 3 June 2024.
  3. ↑ "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  4. ↑ "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  5. ↑ "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  6. ↑ "Smer mierne klesol, Dankova SNS je na štyroch percentách". Denník N (in Slovak). 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  7. ↑ "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  8. ↑ "Smer má 23 percent, protesty ním neotriasli. PS mierne zaostáva, darí sa aj Hlasu". Denník N (in Slovak). 18 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  9. ↑ "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  10. ↑ "PS sa doťahuje na Smer a zväčšuje si potenciál. Od volieb zosilnel aj Hlas". Denník N (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  11. ↑ "PS predbehlo Smer, SNS je mimo". Sme (in Slovak). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  12. ↑ "Smer si stále drží prvé miesto pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  13. ↑ "Smer sa drží na 25 percentách, neklesá ani Hlas. Od volieb najviac stratil Matovič". Denník N (in Slovak). 29 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  14. ↑ "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  15. ↑ "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  16. ↑ "Účasť v koalícii sa SNS nedarí zúročiť". Sme (in Slovak). 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  17. ↑ "Smer zostáva najsilnejší". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  18. ↑ "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  19. ↑ "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  20. ↑ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  21. ↑ "Prvý povolebný model Ipsosu: Smer má 24 percent, PS 19. Matovičov nový názov ľudí mätie". Denník N (in Slovak). 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
  22. ↑ "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  23. ↑ "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  24. ↑ "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  25. ↑ "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  26. ↑ "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  27. ↑ "Do parlamentu by sa podľa prieskumu dostalo šesť strán. Vyklikajte si možné koalície". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  28. ↑ "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  29. ↑ "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  30. ↑ "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  31. ↑ "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  32. ↑ "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
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