Opinion polling for the next Portuguese legislative election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Portuguese legislative election, various organisations will carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2024 Portuguese legislative election, held on 10 March, to the present day.

Contents

Nationwide polling

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, parties are shaded with their colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample sizeTurnout
Alianca Democratica 2024 (Portugal) logo.png
Letras PS (Portugal).png Logo Chega!.png Iniciativa Liberal Icon.png LeftBloc.svg Logo of the Unitary Democratic Coalition.svg Partido LIVRE logo.png Logo Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (text only).png OLead
Intercampus [lower-alpha 1] 12–20 May 2024609 ?23.724.717.49.08.22.59.43.21.91.0
CESOP–UCP 13–18 May 2024965 ?3029195435231
Intercampus [lower-alpha 2] 18–23 Apr 2024605 ?24.328.715.67.99.72.35.72.92.94.4
2024 legislative election [1] 10 Mar 202459.828.8
80
28.0
78
18.1
50
4.9
8
4.4
5
3.2
4
3.2
4
2.0
1
7.5
0
0.8

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister or who is better positioned to win are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Luís Montenegro vs Pedro Nuno Santos

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork date Luis Montenegro.jpg Pedro Nuno Santos, 2020-01-15 (cropped).png NBoth/
O
NOLead
Aximage 17–22 May 20244028189512

Leaders' ratings

Poll results showing the public opinion on all political party leaders rated from 0 to 10 [lower-alpha 3] (with the former being strong disapproval and the latter strong approval) are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order (showing the most recent first).

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork date Luis Montenegro.jpg Pedro Nuno Santos, 2020-01-15 (cropped).png Andre Ventura (Agencia LUSA, Entrevista Presidenciais 2021), cropped.png Debate com Rui Rocha na CNN, Fev.2024 (53539434166) (cropped) (cropped).jpg Mariana Mortagua, tempo de antena sobre justica fiscal, Legislativas 2022.png Paulo Raimundo (Agencia Lusa 2023-10-18) (cropped).png Rui Tavares, SomosBibliotecas (cropped).png Melo, Nuno-1294 (cropped).jpg Ines Sousa Real.jpg Lead
Intercampus 12–20 May 20246.05.84.86.05.64.86.45.05.60.4
CESOP–UCP 13–18 May 20245.74.93.54.64.44.04.94.00.8
Intercampus 18–23 Apr 20245.85.64.45.85.44.86.05.05.60.2

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Polling

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork dateSample size Luís Montenegro's cabinet
ApproveDisapproveNeitherNo opinionNet
Intercampus 12–20 May 202460919.832.244.83.212.6
CESOP–UCP 13–18 May 20249651524511027
Intercampus 18–23 Apr 202460521.837.835.94.51.9

Notes

  1. Results presented here exclude undecideds (6.3%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 23.1%; AD: 22.2%; CHEGA: 16.3%; Livre: 8.8%; IL: 8.4%; BE: 7.7%; PAN: 3.0%; CDU: 2.3%; Others/Invalid: 1.8%.
  2. Results presented here exclude undecideds (7.4%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 26.6%; AD: 22.5%; CHEGA: 14.4%; BE: 9.0%; IL: 7.3%; Livre: 5.3%; PAN: 2.7%; CDU: 2.1%; Others/Invalid: 2.7%.
  3. Intercampus and Aximage polls rate party leaders from 1 to 5. CESOP–UCP poll rates party leaders from 0 to 20. The results are adapted to match the ICS/ISCTE polls.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 European Parliament election in Portugal</span>

An election was held in Portugal on Sunday, 25 May 2014, to elect the Portuguese delegation to the European Parliament from 2014 to 2019. This was the seventh European Parliament election held in Portugal.

In the run up to the Greek legislative election of January 2015, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Greece. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2017 Austrian legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Austria. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run-up to the 2020 Croatian parliamentary election, various organisations have been carrying out monthly opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Croatia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range is from after the previous parliamentary election, held on 11 September 2016, to 5 July 2020 when 2020 elections were held.

In the run up to the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2019 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2019 parliamentary elections in Finland, various organizations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Finland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2016 parliamentary elections in the Serbia, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Serbia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2016 Russian legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Russia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2014 Slovenian parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovenia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

This page lists public opinion polls for the 2014 Ukrainian presidential election.

In the run up to the 2011 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2005 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2019 Portuguese legislative election, held on 6 October, to the day the next election was held on 30 January.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Madeiran regional election</span> Portuguese regional election

Regional elections were held in Madeira on 24 September 2023, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

In the run up to the 2021 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2006 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

In the run up to the 2024 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, held on 30 January, to the day the next election was held on 10 March.

References

  1. "Eleições Legislativas 2024". legislativas2024.mai.gov.pt (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2024-03-31.