2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses

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2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses
Flag of Idaho.svg
  2008 March 6, 2012 (2012-03-06) 2016  
  GA
MA  

32 delegates to the
2012 Republican National Convention
  Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 6 cropped (cropped).jpg Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore 2 (1).jpg Ron Paul (6238703989) (cropped).jpg
Candidate Mitt Romney Rick Santorum Ron Paul
Home state Massachusetts Pennsylvania Texas
Delegate count3200
Popular vote27,5148,1158,086
Percentage61.6%18.2%18.1%

2012 Idaho Republican Primaries Counties.svg

The Republican caucuses took place on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012. [1] [2] An advisory primary with no binding effect on delegates, scheduled to be held on Tuesday May 15, 2012, was cancelled by the Idaho Republican Party. [3] Five candidates were on the ballot. In order of filing they are Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Buddy Roemer. Although Roemer had withdrawn from the Republican race before the Idaho caucus, he still appeared on the ballot. [4]

Contents

Mitt Romney won 61% of the vote, thanks to a large majority of support (80-90% in most counties) in majority Mormon southeastern Idaho, rendering it a winner-take-all contest. Santorum and Paul split the Panhandle, winning five counties each, but came away empty in the delegate count.

Procedure

Idaho has 32 delegates to the Republican national convention, of which 3 are RNC and 29 are AL.[ clarification needed ] The 3 RNC delegates pledged to go with the results of the Boise Straw Poll.[ citation needed ] The delegates will be determined by the caucuses results, based on a two-step approach. First, the delegates are primarily awarded winner-take-all by county after a series of votes in which candidates are successively removed from the ballot. Then, if a candidate receives half or more of the county delegates, he will receive all the 32 delegates; if not, the delegates will be split proportionately according to the number of county delegates. [5]

Polling

Straw polls

Despite a complete lack of formal polling in the state, [5] there were a total of five straw polls conducted in Idaho, three of which were online. Ron Paul won three of these, [6] [7] [8] while Mitt Romney won two. [9]

January 2–4 online poll

This was the first ever Idaho straw poll. [10] It was conducted entirely online by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won with over 70% of the vote. [6]

FinishCandidatePercentage
1 Ron Paul 73.53%
2 Rick Santorum 8.09%
3 Newt Gingrich 7.35%
4 Mitt Romney 5.15%
5 Barack Obama 3.68%
6 Gary Johnson 1.47%
7 Rick Perry 0.74%
8 Jon Huntsman 0.00%
9 Michele Bachmann 0.00%
Total100%

January 6 Boise poll

This poll used paper ballots and was conducted in Boise. Ron Paul won this poll. Rick Perry's campaign, although still active in the race at this time, did not participate. [7]

FinishCandidatePercentageVotes
1 Ron Paul 43%173
2 Mitt Romney 34%135
3 Newt Gingrich 12%47
4 Rick Santorum 10%40
5 Jon Huntsman 1%4
Total100%399

February 2–4 online poll

This online straw poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Mitt Romney won the poll by a small margin. [9]

FinishCandidatePercentage
1 Mitt Romney 45.39%
2 Ron Paul 42.70%
3 Rick Santorum 4.49%
4 Newt Gingrich 3.82%
5 Barack Obama 3.15%
6Other0.45%
Total100%

March 1–3 online poll

This poll was also produced by Kaz Wittig KStar Enterprises. Ron Paul won by a double-digit margin. [8]

FinishCandidatePercentageVotes
1 Ron Paul 51.37%525
2 Mitt Romney 35.03%358
3 Gary Johnson 3.91%40
4 Rick Santorum 3.23%33
5 Virgil Goode 2.84%29
6 Buddy Roemer 1.96%20
7 Newt Gingrich 0.98%10
8 Barack Obama 0.49%5
9Other0.2%2
Total100%1022

Results

Results of the 2012 Idaho Republican presidential caucuses [11] [12]
FinishCandidatePercentageVotesEstimated National Delegates
1 Mitt Romney 61.6%27,51432
2 Rick Santorum 18.2%8,1150
3 Ron Paul 18.1%8,0860
4 Newt Gingrich 2.1%9400
5 Buddy Roemer 0.0%170
Total100%32

County totals

County Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Mitt Romney Rick Santorum TotalWinner
Ada3071766423318668172Romney
Adams0851320217Romney
Bannock2425416141462038Romney
Bear Lake21530819344Romney
Benewah249026145265Santorum
Bingham2721521721502564Romney
Blaine477923023379Romney
Boise01281630291Romney
Bonner055504871042Paul
Bonneville6548130442353825Romney
Boundary019364101358Paul
Butte102515323211Romney
Camas04038078Paul
Canyon0617205612963969Romney
Caribou72233626391Romney
Cassia2814312791441594Romney
Clark288817115Romney
Clearwater0850151236Santorum
Custer19489824189Romney
Elmore01582810439Romney
Franklin410585629994Romney
Fremont127672638852Romney
Gem0150379143672Romney
Gooding478429986516Romney
Idaho02840191475Paul
Jefferson1121216421141979Romney
Jerome2874331101534Romney
Kootenai049606741170Santorum
Latah78509197188972Paul
Lemhi446021764385Romney
Lewis00254469Santorum
Lincoln141114749221Romney
Madison72602510502827Romney
Minidoka228065392847Romney
Nez Perce01271240251Paul
Oneida33924118301Romney
Owyhee00177263440Santorum
Payette00428302730Romney
Power91328738347Romney
Shoshone006374137Santorum
Teton134429526378Romney
Twin Falls8333212284092052Romney
Valley01231520275Romney
Washington00222269491Santorum

Notes

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References

  1. "Idaho Republican Delegation 2012".
  2. "Election and voting information" (PDF).
  3. "Idaho Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  4. "Declared 2012 Republican Presidential Candidates". 27 May 2018.
  5. 1 2 Nate Silver (March 4, 2012). "Romney Could Win Majority of Super Tuesday Delegates". FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved March 5, 2012.
  6. 1 2 "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on 2012-03-06. Retrieved 2012-02-28.
  7. 1 2 http://www.kivitv.com/news/local/136861888.html [ permanent dead link ]
  8. 1 2 "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on 2012-03-06. Retrieved 2012-03-04.
  9. 1 2 "Presidential Race Graph". Archived from the original on 2012-03-06. Retrieved 2012-03-02.
  10. Bodnar, Marissa. "Idaho GOP Gears Up For 2012 Straw Poll, Caucus". Local News 8. NPG of Idaho, Inc. Archived from the original on 18 September 2016. Retrieved 14 July 2016.
  11. "Caucus Results | Idaho GOPIdaho GOP". Archived from the original on 2012-07-20. Retrieved 2012-07-19.
  12. "Idaho County Map". CNN.