Democratic transition

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Since c. 2010, the number of countries autocratizing (blue) is higher than those democratizing (yellow). Number of countries experiencing autocratization and democratization, 1900-2000.jpg
Since c. 2010, the number of countries autocratizing (blue) is higher than those democratizing (yellow).

A democratic transition describes a phase in a country's political system as a result of an ongoing change from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one. [1] [2] [3] The process is known as democratisation, political changes moving in a democratic direction. [4] Democratization waves have been linked to sudden shifts in the distribution of power among the great powers, which created openings and incentives to introduce sweeping domestic reforms. [5] [6] Although transitional regimes experience more civil unrest, [7] [8] they may be considered stable in a transitional phase for decades at a time. [9] [10] [11] Since the end of the Cold War transitional regimes have become the most common form of government. [12] [13] Scholarly analysis of the decorative nature of democratic institutions concludes that the opposite democratic backsliding (autocratization), a transition to authoritarianism is the most prevalent basis of modern hybrid regimes. [14] [15] [16]

Contents

Typology

Autocratization

Countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010-2020), according to V-Dem Institute. Countries in grey are substantially unchanged. Countries democratizing or autocratizing substantially and significantly 2010-2020.svg
Countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020), according to V-Dem Institute. Countries in grey are substantially unchanged.

Democratic backsliding [a] is a process of regime change toward autocracy in which the exercise of political power becomes more arbitrary and repressive. [24] [25] [26] The process typically restricts the space for public contest and political participation in the process of government selection. [27] [28] Democratic decline involves the weakening of democratic institutions, such as the peaceful transition of power or free and fair elections, or the violation of individual rights that underpin democracies, especially freedom of expression. [29] [30] Democratic backsliding is the opposite of democratization.

Proposed causes of democratic backsliding include economic inequality, rampant culture wars, culturally conservative reactions to societal changes, populist or personalist politics, and external influence from great power politics. During crises, backsliding can occur when leaders impose autocratic rules during states of emergency that are either disproportionate to the severity of the crisis or remain in place after the situation has improved. [31]

During the Cold War, democratic backsliding occurred most frequently through coups. Since the end of the Cold War, democratic backsliding has occurred more frequently through the election of personalist leaders or parties who subsequently dismantle democratic instutions. [32] During the third wave of democratization in the late twentieth century, many new, weakly institutionalized democracies were established; these regimes have been most vulnerable to democratic backsliding. [33] [30] The third wave of autocratization has been ongoing since 2010, when the number of liberal democracies was at an all-time high. [34] [35]

Democratisation

Map showing democratization of countries after the Cold War Global effect of 1989-1991 Revolutions.png
Map showing democratization of countries after the Cold War

Democratization, or democratisation, is the structural government transition from an authoritarian government to a more democratic political regime, including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction. [36] [37]

Whether and to what extent democratization occurs can be influenced by various factors, including economic development, historical legacies, civil society, and international processes. Some accounts of democratization emphasize how elites drove democratization, whereas other accounts emphasize grassroots bottom-up processes. [38] How democratization occurs has also been used to explain other political phenomena, such as whether a country goes to a war or whether its economy grows. [39]

The opposite process is known as democratic backsliding or autocratization.

Factors

Decolonization

Map of the year each country achieved independence. Descolonizacion - Decolonization.png
Map of the year each country achieved independence.
Except for a few absolute monarchies, most post-colonial states are either republics or constitutional monarchies. These new states had to devise constitutions, electoral systems, and other institutions of representative democracy.

Democratic globalization

Democratic globalization is a social movement towards an institutional system of global democracy. [40] One of its proponents is the British political thinker David Held. In the last decade, Held published a dozen books regarding the spread of democracy from territorially defined nation states to a system of global governance that encapsulates the entire world. For some, democratic mundialisation (from the French term mondialisation) is a variant of democratic globalisation stressing the need for the direct election of world leaders and members of global institutions by citizens worldwide; for others, it is just another name for democratic globalisation. [41]

Democracy promotion

Democracy promotion, also referred to as democracy building, can be domestic policy to increase the quality of already existing democracy or a strand of foreign policy adopted by governments and international organizations that seek to support the spread of democracy as a system of government. In practice, it entails consolidating and building democratic institutions

Outcomes

Democratic consolidation

Democratic consolidation is the process by which a new democracy matures, in a way that it becomes unlikely to revert to authoritarianism without an external shock, and is regarded as the only available system of government within a country. [42] [43] A country can be described as consolidated when the current democratic system becomes “the only game in town”, [44] meaning no one in the country is trying to act outside of the set institutions. [45] This is the case when no significant political group seriously attempts to overthrow the democratic regime, the democratic system is regarded as the most appropriate way to govern by the vast majority of the public, and all political actors are accustomed to the fact that conflicts are resolved through established political and constitutional rules. [46] [47]

Stalled transition

Hybrid regime

A hybrid regime [b] is a type of political system often created as a result of an incomplete democratic transition from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one (or vice versa). [c] Hybrid regimes are categorized as having a combination of autocratic features with democratic ones and can simultaneously hold political repressions and regular elections. [c] Hybrid regimes are commonly found in developing countries with abundant natural resources such as petro-states. [65] [55] [66] Although these regimes experience civil unrest, they may be relatively stable and tenacious for decades at a time. [c] There has been a rise in hybrid regimes since the end of the Cold War. [67] [68]

Measurement

Global trend report Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2022 BTI 2022 DEM.jpg
Global trend report Bertelsmann Transformation Index 2022

The democracy indices differ in whether they are categorical, such as classifying countries into democracies, hybrid regimes, and autocracies, [70] [71] or continuous values. [72] The qualitative nature of democracy indices enables data analytical approaches for studying causal mechanisms of regime transformation processes.

Democracy indices differ in scope and weighting of various aspects of democracy, including the breadth of core democratic institutions, competitiveness and inclusiveness of polyarchy, freedom of expression, various aspects of governance, democratic norm transgressions, co-option of opposition, electoral system manipulation, electoral fraud, and popular support of anti-democratic alternatives. [73] [74] [75]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Other names include autocratization, democratic decline, [18] de-democratization, [19] democratic erosion, [20] democratic decay, [21] democratic recession, [22] democratic regression, [18] and democratic deconsolidation. [23]
  2. ↑ Scholars use a variety of terms to encompass the "grey zones" between full autocracies and full democracies. [48] Such terms include: competitive authoritarianism, semi-authoritarianism, hybrid authoritarianism, electoral authoritarianism, liberal autocracy, delegative democracy, illiberal democracy, guided democracy, semi-democracy, deficient democracy, defective democracy, and hybrid democracy. [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56]
  3. 1 2 3 "Some scholars argue that deficient democracies and deficient autocracies can be seen as examples of hybrid regimes, whereas others argue that hybrid regimes combine characteristics of both democratic and autocratic regimes." [50] Scholars also debate if these regimes are in transition or are inherently a stable political system. [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64]

Related Research Articles

Autocracy is a system of government in which absolute power is held by the ruler, known as an autocrat. It includes some forms of monarchy and all forms of dictatorship, while it is contrasted with democracy and feudalism. Various definitions of autocracy exist. They may restrict autocracy to cases where power is held by a single individual, or they may define autocracy in a way that includes a group of rulers who wield absolute power. The autocrat has total control over the exercise of civil liberties within the autocracy, choosing under what circumstances they may be exercised, if at all. Governments may also blend elements of autocracy and democracy, forming an anocracy. The concept of autocracy has been recognized in political philosophy since ancient times.

In political science, a political system means the form of political organization that can be observed, recognised or otherwise declared by a society or state.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democratization</span> Society becoming more democratic

Democratization, or democratisation, is the structural government transition from an authoritarian government to a more democratic political regime, including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction.

The term "illiberal democracy" describes a governing system that hides its "nondemocratic practices behind formally democratic institutions and procedures". There is a lack of consensus among experts about the exact definition of illiberal democracy or whether it even exists.

In political science and in international and comparative law and economics, transitology is the study of the process of change from one political regime to another, mainly from authoritarian regimes to democratic ones rooted in conflicting and consensual varieties of economic liberalism.

Democratic consolidation is the process by which a new democracy matures, in a way that it becomes unlikely to revert to authoritarianism without an external shock, and is regarded as the only available system of government within a country. A country can be described as consolidated when the current democratic system becomes “the only game in town”, meaning no one in the country is trying to act outside of the set institutions. This is the case when no significant political group seriously attempts to overthrow the democratic regime, the democratic system is regarded as the most appropriate way to govern by the vast majority of the public, and all political actors are accustomed to the fact that conflicts are resolved through established political and constitutional rules.

In political science, the waves of democracy or waves of democratization are major surges of democracy that have occurred in history. Although the term appears at least as early as 1887, it was popularized by Samuel P. Huntington, a political scientist at Harvard University, in his article published in the Journal of Democracy and further expounded in his 1991 book, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Democratization waves have been linked to sudden shifts in the distribution of power among the great powers, which created openings and incentives to introduce sweeping domestic reforms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democracy promotion</span> Domestic or foreign policy to increase democratic rule

Democracy promotion, also referred to as democracy building, can be domestic policy to increase the quality of already existing democracy or a strand of foreign policy adopted by governments and international organizations that seek to support the spread of democracy as a system of government. In practice, it entails consolidating and building democratic institutions

Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of strong central power to preserve the political status quo, and reductions in democracy, separation of powers, civil liberties, and the rule of law. Political scientists have created many typologies describing variations of authoritarian forms of government. Authoritarian regimes may be either autocratic or oligarchic and may be based upon the rule of a party or the military. States that have a blurred boundary between democracy and authoritarianism have some times been characterized as "hybrid democracies", "hybrid regimes" or "competitive authoritarian" states.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Coup d'état</span> Deposition of a government

A coup d'état, or simply a coup, is typically an illegal and overt attempt by a military organization or other government elites to unseat an incumbent leadership. A self-coup is when a leader, having come to power through legal means, tries to stay in power through illegal means.

Anocracy, or semi-democracy, is a form of government that is loosely defined as part democracy and part dictatorship, or as a "regime that mixes democratic with autocratic features". Another definition classifies anocracy as "a regime that permits some means of participation through opposition group behavior but that has incomplete development of mechanisms to redress grievances." The term "semi-democratic" is reserved for stable regimes that combine democratic and authoritarian elements. Scholars distinguish anocracies from autocracies and democracies in their capability to maintain authority, political dynamics, and policy agendas. Anocratic regimes have democratic institutions that allow for nominal amounts of competition. Such regimes are particularly susceptible to outbreaks of armed conflict and unexpected or adverse changes in leadership.

A hybrid regime is a type of political system often created as a result of an incomplete democratic transition from an authoritarian regime to a democratic one. Hybrid regimes are categorized as having a combination of autocratic features with democratic ones and can simultaneously hold political repressions and regular elections. Hybrid regimes are commonly found in developing countries with abundant natural resources such as petro-states. Although these regimes experience civil unrest, they may be relatively stable and tenacious for decades at a time. There has been a rise in hybrid regimes since the end of the Cold War.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democratic backsliding</span> National decline in democracy

Democratic backsliding is a process of regime change toward autocracy in which the exercise of political power becomes more arbitrary and repressive. The process typically restricts the space for public contest and political participation in the process of government selection. Democratic decline involves the weakening of democratic institutions, such as the peaceful transition of power or free and fair elections, or the violation of individual rights that underpin democracies, especially freedom of expression. Democratic backsliding is the opposite of democratization.

Democracy in Venezuela refers to the system of governance that has prevailed in Venezuela since direct election at the presidential level and later in the 1990s at the regional level. Democracy as a system of government in the country has had a history interrupted by coups d'état, some in the name of democracy itself. From 1958 onward, Venezuela was considered to be a relatively stable democracy within a continent that was facing a wave of military dictatorship, consuming almost all Latin American countries in the 1970s. By 1977, Venezuela was the only one of three democracies in Latin America, along with Colombia and Costa Rica. With the election of Hugo Chávez in the 1998 presidential election, the country started experiencing democratic backsliding. In 2008, Venezuela was ranked the least democratic nation in South America in The Economist Democracy Index, and by 2022 it ranked 147th out of 167 countries, with a rating of an authoritarian regime.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democratic backsliding by country</span>

Democratic backsliding, also known as autocratization, is the decline in democratic qualities of a political regime, the opposite of democratization.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democratic backsliding in the United States</span> Periods of democratic decline in the U.S.

Democratic backsliding in the United States has been identified as a trend at the state and national levels in various indices and analyses. Democratic backsliding is "a process of regime change towards autocracy that makes the exercise of political power more arbitrary and repressive and that restricts the space for public contestation and political participation in the process of government selection".

Electoral autocracy is a hybrid regime, in which democratic institutions are imitative and adhere to authoritarian methods. In these regimes, regular elections are held, but they are accused of failing to reach democratic standards of freedom and fairness.

Democracy indices are quantitative and comparative assessments of the state of democracy for different countries according to various definitions of democracy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democracy in Asia</span> Overview of democracy in Asia

Democracy in Asia can be comparatively assessed according to various definitions of democracy. According to the V-Dem Democracy indices, the Asian countries with the highest democracy scores in year 2023 were Taiwan, Japan, Cyprus, Israel, and South Korea, meanwhile the Asian countries with lowest democracy scores in 2023 are Saudi Arabia, China and Afghanistan. Democratic backsliding can be observed in parts of Asia. The V-Dem Democracy Report identified for the year 2023 East Timor as a case of stand-alone democratization and Thailand and Maldives as cases of U-Turn democratization.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democracy in Europe</span> Overview of democracy in Europe

Democracy in Europe can be comparatively assessed according to various definitions of democracy. According to the V-Dem Democracy Indices, the European countries with the highest democracy scores in 2023 are Denmark, Norway and Sweden, meanwhile the European countries with lowest democracy scores in 2023 are Belarus, Russia and Turkey.

References

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