Northwestern Syria offensive (2024)

Northwestern Syria offensive (2024)
Part of the Syrian civil war
Map of offensive in Syria Map of the offensive in and around Aleppo city   Controlled by the Syrian Arab Republic   Controlled by the Syrian opposition   Controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces
Date 27 November 2024 –present (1 week) Location Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates, Syria Status Ongoing Collapse of pro-government forces in northwestern Syria [1] Rebels capture Aleppo Rebel groups launch offensive towards Hama Beginning of Operation Dawn of Freedom Territorial changes Syrian opposition forces capture more than 100 towns and villages, [2] [3] take control of most of Aleppo, cut off the M5 highway, completely taken control of Shahba region from SDF, and advance towards Hama
Belligerents
Syrian Salvation Government Syrian Interim Government	Syrian Arab Republic   Russia [4] [5]   Iran [6] Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria [7] [a]
Commanders and leaders
Abu Mohammad al-Julani	Suhayl al-Hasan [8] Kioumars Pourhashemi   † [9] Mazloum Abdi
Units involved
Military Operations Command Tahrir al-Sham Red Bands [10] Thermal Brigades [10] Syrian National Army Northern Storm Brigade [11] Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement [11] Jaysh al-Izza [12] Levant Front [12] National Front for Liberation Ahrar al-Sham [12] Sham Legion [11] Sultan Murad Division [13] Joint Forces [14] Ajnad al-Kavkaz [15] Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar [15] Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria [16]	Syrian Armed Forces   Syrian Army   Syrian Air Force   Russian Armed Forces   Russian Aerospace Forces   Russian Air Force Spetsnaz GRU [17] Iranian Armed Forces   Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [6] Pro-Iranian militias [10] Badr Organization [18] Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba [18] Syrian Democratic Forces People's Defense Units Women's Protection Units [19] Al-Bab Military Council [20] Manbij Military Council [21] Sheikh Maqsoud Liberation Forces [19] Ashrafieh Liberation Forces [19]
Casualties and losses
237 killed [22] 54 killed [22] c. 1,000 killed (government claim) [23]	182 killed; [b] 21 captured [25] [26] 1 killed [22] 1+ killed 3 killed [27] Unknown Number captured [19]
86 civilians killed by Russian and SAA air and artillery strikes [22] 12 civilians killed by HTS shelling [22]

On 27 November 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups called the Military Operations Command ^[28] led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied Turkish-backed groups ^{[29] [30] [31]} in the Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates in Syria.

Codenamed Deterrence of Aggression ^[c] by HTS and stated as being launched in retaliation for the increased SAA shelling of civilians in the Western Aleppo countryside, ^[32] the operation is the first time opposition forces launched a military offensive campaign since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire. ^{[33] [34]}

On 29 November 2024, HTS and the Syrian Democratic Forces entered Aleppo and captured most of the city, amid the collapse of pro-government forces. The next day, opposition forces made rapid advances, capturing dozens of towns and villages as pro-government forces disintegrated, and advanced toward Hama in central Syria. ^[1]

Background

Main articles: Northwestern Syria clashes (December 2022–November 2024) and Turkish military operation in Idlib Governorate

Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire agreement, large scale operations ceased between opposition and pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria. ^{[35] [10]} However, opposition groups based in northwestern Syria prepared for a resumption of hostilities, with HTS in particular strengthening its military capabilities by reforming its structures into a "conventional armed force", improving training, and setting up special forces specializing in raids and night-time operations. ^[10] According to the Kyiv Post , some Islamist social media accounts said that the Idlib-based rebels received some training and other support by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence. ^[16] Meanwhile, the Syrian government suffered from growing corruption, with researcher Charles Lister describing it as the "world's biggest narco state" whose "corrupt business elite and a powerful network of military commanders, militia leaders and warlords" were held together by drug trade revenue, especially trade of Captagon. ^[10] Starting in late 2022, HTS forces launched a series of infiltration and sniper attacks on government forces, leading up to the offensive. Aleppo has been controlled by Bashar al-Assad's government and Iranian-backed militias since the Aleppo offensive in 2016. ^{[35] [10]}

In October 2024, a large mobilization by HTS and government forces was initiated in the Aleppo countryside, as the Syrian rebels reported that they have been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against government forces within the city of Aleppo. ^[36] On 26 November 2024, government forces artillery struck the opposition held town of Ariha, killing and injuring 16 civilians. ^[37]

Offensive

On 27 November 2024, HTS announced that it had launched an offensive dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression" toward pro-government forces in western Aleppo Governorate. ^[38] The offensive was a response to recent artillery shelling by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad against rebel-held Idlib, which killed at least 30 civilians. ^{[34] [35]}

Opening advances

During the first 10 hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including the towns of Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, Urm al-Sughra, Sheikh Aqil, Bara, Ajil, Awijil, al-Hawtah, Tal al-Dabaa, Hayr Darkal, Qubtan al-Jabal, al-Saloum, al-Qasimiyah, Kafr Bisin, Hawr, Aznaz and Basratoun. In addition, the 46th regiment base of government forces was besieged by the HTS and captured a few hours later. ^{[4] [11]} The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 37 Syrian government soldiers and allied militias and 60 fighters from the opposition forces were killed in the clashes. ^[34] A Russian special forces unit was ambushed by rebels, who later posted photos of a dead Russian soldier and captured equipment. In response, Syrian and Russian forces launched aerial assaults on areas controlled by rebel groups. ^[39] Russian fighters also conducted airstrikes around Atarib, Darat Izza, and surrounding villages, while government forces shelled rebel-controlled Idlib, Ariha, Sarmada and other areas in southern Idlib province. ^{[40] [41] [42]}

On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib. This advance brought them within 2 kilometers of the M5 highway, a strategic route that had been secured by pro-government forces in 2020. HTS also attacked al-Nayrab's airport located east of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militants have a presence. ^[43] In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway. ^[44] The Syrian rebels had captured around 40 towns and villages in total by the end of the day. ^[35]

A Russian airstrike killed fifteen civilians in Atarib in the western Aleppo countryside. A further four others were killed in either a Syrian or Russian airstrike in Darat Izza. ^[45] Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo. ^[35] An SDF fighter was killed by Turkish drone strike in north of Raqqah Governorate. ^[46]

On 29 November, HTS captured the villages of Tal Karatabeen, Abu Qansa, and Al-Talhiya in Idlib countryside and Al-Mansoura, Jab Kas, and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. Strong fighting around the town of Saraqib continued. ^[47] By this point, other Idlib-based Islamist groups were backing the HTS advance, including Ajnad al-Kavkaz, Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar, ^[15] and the Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria. ^[16] Four civilians were killed and two others were injured by HTS shelling in the al-Hamdaniya neighborhood of Aleppo city. ^[47] An attack by the SDF was carried near Al-Bab with 15 SNA fighters dying. ^[48] Seven SNA fighters were killed in a Russian airstrike on a SNA military headquarters in Mare'. ^[49] Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib. ^[50]

Battle of Aleppo

Main article: Battle of Aleppo (2024)

On 29 November, opposition forces entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city, after carrying out a double suicide attack with two car bombs. ^[51] During the latter half of the day, opposition forces seized five districts of Aleppo city, namely Al-Hamdaniya, New Aleppo, 3000 Apartments, Al-Jamiliya, and Salah al-Din. Clashes were reported elsewhere in the city, including its center. Twenty other towns and villages were captured by the opposition forces, including the strategic city of Saraqib amid the collapse of pro-government forces' defense lines. Other towns captured by the opposition forces included, Khan al-Sabil, At-Talhiyah, At-Tarnabah, and Jobas in Idlib countryside and the towns of Khan Touman, Shagheidele, Khalasa, Al-Hadir, Al-Qarasi, Barna, Al-Eis, Talhadiya, Zitan, Al-Mansoura and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. ^[52]

By late 29 November, opposition forces had captured parts of Al-Sukariyya, Al-Furqan, Al-Adhamiya, and Saif al-Dawla districts of Aleppo city, as well as having claimed to have taken control of its main square. ^{[53] [54]}

In the early hours of 30 November, rebel forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, the government headquarters in the city, as well as "more than half of Aleppo city". ^{[55] [56]} By morning, rebel forces had seized control of most of Aleppo, forcing pro-government troops to retreat toward as-Safirah. ^[57]

Elsewhere in Syria, rebels captured 39 towns and villages, including the town of Abu al-Duhur. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, with the exception of Maarat al-Numan, Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah and Khanaser road. ^[7] By the afternoon, opposition forces captured Maarat al-Numan, and the number of towns and villages that fell to rebel forces during the day rose to more than 50. ^[2]

An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city. ^[58]

Government withdrawal and SDF advances

On 30 November 2024, amid the collapse of pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria, the Kurdish majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), entered the towns of Dayr Hafir, Tell Aran, Tell Hasel, and the Shaykh Najjar district of Aleppo city, taking over from pro-government forces. ^{[59] [7]} In the afternoon, SDF captured Aleppo International Airport and the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa, following the withdrawal of pro-government forces. ^[60] Clashes between Turkish backed rebels and SDF were reported in Tell Abyad region in northern Raqqa Governorate. ^{[48] [61]}

Concurrently on 30 November, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army located in the Euphrates Shield region of Turkish occupied northern Syria announced the start of " Operation Dawn of Freedom " with the objective of cutting off SDF's supply networks and establishing a corridor connecting al-Bab to Tel Rifaat. SNA forces captured the town of Tadef from pro-government forces during their advances as pro-government forces began withdrawing from the region. ^{[62] [63]}

Advances toward Hama

Main article: 2024 Hama offensive

On the evening of 30 November 2024, opposition forces led by HTS rapidly advanced in the Hama Governorate, and captured dozens of towns and villages in the countryside, including, Halfaya, Morek, al-Lataminah, Kafr Zita, Qalaat al-Madiq, Kafr Nabudah, Karnaz, Lahaya, al-Buwaydah, Latmin, Sawran, al-Mughayyir, Maardis, Al-Suqaylabiyah, Mharda and Taybat al-Imam. ^[64] In Aleppo region, rebels reportedly took control of Aleppo airport after the local SDF troops opted to withdraw. ^[1] Pro-government forces reportedly began withdrawing from both the city of Hama and its airbase, ^[64] though this was denied by the Ministry of Defense. ^[65] At 7 PM (Local Syrian time, UTC+3:00) HTS forces started closing in on Hama, ^[66] capturing at least six villages. ^[67] Meanwhile, Israel reportedly fired artillery shells at government-held territories near the occupied Golan Heights, ^[68] and local gunmen from Talbiseh attacked SAA forces on the highway between Hama and Homs, injuring six. ^[69]

In the early hours of 1 December, pro-government forces established new military positions on the outskirts of Hama and its northern countryside. Reinforcements were deployed to Jabal Zayn al-Abidin and the towns of Taybat al Imam, Qamhana, and Khitab. ^[70] Russia launched airstrikes on towns captured by rebels in the Idlib and Hama regions, including Morek, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafranbel, Hazarin, and Tal Kawkabah. ^[71] In Idlib city, a Russian airstrike targeting a refugee camp killed nine civilians and injured 62 others. A separate Russian airstrike targeting Aleppo university hospital killed 8 civilians. ^[72] By the afternoon, SNA had captured the towns of as-Safirah, Khanasir, and the Kuweires airbase, while clashes occurred between SNA and SDF in the Sheikh Najjar district of Aleppo city. Concurrently HTS captured the thermal power plant, field artillery college, and the military academy on the outskirts of Aleppo. ^[73]

On the evening of 1 December, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive on the SDF-held town of Tell Rifaat, capturing the town along with several surrounding villages, including Shwargha, Menagh, Maranaz, Kafrnaya, Sheikh Issa, Deir Jamal, and Ain Daqna. The remaining SDF-controlled towns in the region were cut off from communication after being encircled by opposition forces. ^[74]

On 2 December, the SDF announced plans to evacuate Kurdish IDPs from Tel Rifaat and the Shahba region to SDF-held areas in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsood district and northeastern Syria. ^{[75] [76]} During the day, Russia launched airstrikes on the towns recently captured by the rebels, including as-Safirah, Khan Shaykhun, and Morek, while a separate Russian airstrike targeting Idlib city killed 11 civilians. ^{[77] [78]} A rebel drone strike targeting a gathering of pro-government military leaders near Jabal Zayn al-Abidin, north of Hama, caused multiple deaths and injuries among their ranks. ^[79] By the afternoon, clashes between opposition and pro-government forces intensified in Hama Governorate, particularly near the towns of Karnaz and Suran. In the eastern Hama countryside, opposition forces made advances, capturing the town of Qasr Abu Samrah. ^[80] In the evening, the heaviest clashes since the start of the offensive took place between opposition and pro-government forces in northern Hama region, with Russian and government aircraft carrying out more than 45 airstrikes. Opposition forces took control of the villages of al-Jubain, Tell Malah, Jalamah, al-Jubain, Breidej, Karnaz and al-Karkat, while pro-government forces were able to thwart attempts to advance on Qalaat al-Madiq. ^{[81] [82]} Opposition forces' rocket shelling of Hama city killed eight civilians. ^[83]

On 3 December, opposition forces continued their advance on the pro-government forces in Hama region, capturing the towns of Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, Soran, and Maardis. ^[84] In the eastern Aleppo countryside, heavy clashes occurred between SNA and pro-government forces in Khanasir as the latter tried to recapture the town. ^[85] Fighting intensified in the evening between opposition and pro-government forces, as the rebels took control of more than 10 town of villages and reached the outskirts of Hama. ^[86] At least 17 SAA soldiers and 8 HTS fighters were killed in the clashes north of Hama. Two civilians were also killed by HTS shelling in the city. ^[87]

Reactions

•   Syria: The Syrian Army described the offensive as "a huge and large-scale terrorist attack" in which "large numbers of terrorists using medium and heavy weapons" targeted villages, towns, and military sites. ^[43] On 30 November, the Syrian government announced a "temporary troop withdrawal" from Aleppo. ^[88] On 30 November, a pro-government commentator on Syrian state TV said that "reinforcements and Russia's assistance would repel the terrorist groups" and blamed Turkey for supporting the insurgents' push into Aleppo and Idlib provinces. ^[89] In a phone call with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, President Bashar al-Assad said the offensive was aimed at "dividing the region and fragmenting the countries in it and redraw the map in line with the objectives of the United States and the West". ^[90]
•   Syrian opposition: Hassan Abdelghani, spokesperson for the Syrian rebel coalition, stated that the targets of the operation are Assad's forces and Iranian militias, whom he accused of bringing "devastation, death, and killing to the region" while "exploiting Arab and Muslim populations" to push their "sabotaging plans" under "the guise of resistance". ^[35]
• The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria announced a general mobilization in response to rebel advances in Aleppo and released a statement condemning the resurgence of violence, which it blamed on the Syrian government and Turkish occupation. ^{[91] [92]}
•   Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the offensive as "a plot orchestrated by the U.S. and the Zionist regime following the regime's defeat in Lebanon and Palestine". ^[93]
•   Turkey: The foreign ministry called for an end to the airstrikes on Idlib and demanded that "greater instability is avoided and civilians are not harmed". ^[94]
•   Russia: Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the offensive "a violation of Syria's sovereignty in this region". ^[93]

Analysis

Hezbollah, which was a major ally of the Syrian government during the civil war, was severely weakened during its war with Israel. The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and much of its military leadership, combined with the redeployment of Hezbollah fighters in Syria back to Lebanon, left a large power vacuum. With the Russian military concentrating on its invasion of Ukraine and Iran under significant pressure, it provided an opportunity for rebel groups to launch an offensive. ^[35]

According to Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, the rebels were trying to pre-empt a Syrian government offensive which was being shaped by Russian and Syrian airstrikes on rebel areas. The presence of Turkish-backed groups in the offensive is believed to be a warning from Turkey to Russia and the Syrian government to avoid any offensives in the region. ^[95]

See also

• 2024 in Syria
• Northwestern Syria offensive (April–August 2019)
• Northwestern Syria offensive (December 2019 – March 2020)
• Operation Spring Shield
• Timeline of the Syrian civil war (2024)
• AANES–Syria relations
• Southern Syria offensive (2024)
• Deir ez-Zor offensive (2024)

Notes

1. Since 30 November 2024
2. 182 killed, including: ^[22]
   • 161 Syrian soldiers
   • 21 pro-Iranian militiamen
   • 1 Iranian soldier ^[24]
3. Arabic: ردع العدوان, romanized: Rade Aleudwan

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