Fall of the Assad regime

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Fall of the Assad regime
Part of the 2024 Syrian opposition offensives in the Syrian civil war
Syrian rebels in Aleppo, 30 November 2024.png
Syrian opposition fighters toppling an Assad regime monument in Aleppo
Date8 December 2024
Location Syria
Organised by Syrian opposition
Outcome

On 8 December 2024, Ba'athist Syria, led by President Bashar al-Assad, collapsed during a major offensive by opposition forces. The offensive was spearheaded by Tahrir al-Sham and supported mainly by the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army as part of the ongoing Syrian civil war that began in 2011. The capture of Damascus marked the end of the Assad family's rule, which had governed Syria as a hereditary totalitarian regime since Hafez al-Assad assumed power in 1971 following the Corrective Revolution.

Contents

As the rebel coalition known as the Southern Operations Room advanced towards Damascus, reports emerged that Assad fled the capital aboard a plane to Russia, where he joined his family, already in exile, and was granted asylum. [4] Following Assad's departure, opposition forces declared victory on state television. Concurrently, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed Assad's resignation and his departure from Syria. [5] [6]

Background

The Assad family, c. 1993. Front: Anisa Makhlouf and Hafez al-Assad. Rear, left to right: Maher, Bashar, Bassel, Majd, and Bushra al-Assad. Al Assad family.jpg
The Assad family, c.1993. Front: Anisa Makhlouf and Hafez al-Assad. Rear, left to right: Maher, Bashar, Bassel, Majd, and Bushra al-Assad.

The al-Assad family had ruled Syria since 1971, when Hafez al-Assad became the president of Syria under the Syrian Ba'ath Party. After his death in June 2000, he was succeeded by his son Bashar al-Assad. [7] [8] [9] [10]

Hafez al-Assad built his governmental system as a bureaucracy that was marked by a distinct cult of personality, uncharacteristic in modern Syrian history. Images, portraits, quotes and praises of Assad were displayed everywhere from schools to public markets and government offices; and Hafez al-Assad was referred to as the "Immortal Leader" and the "Sanctified One" (al-Muqaddas) [11] in official Assadist ideology. Hafez reorganised Syrian society along militaristic lines, persistently invoked conspiratorial rhetoric on the dangers of foreign-backed plots abetted by fifth columnists, and promoted the armed forces as a central aspect of public life. [12] [13] [14]

After Hafez al-Assad's seizure of power in 1970, state propaganda promoted a new national discourse based on unifying Syrians under "a single imagined Ba'athist identity," as well as Assadism. [15] Fervently loyalist paramilitaries known as the Shabiha (transl.'ghosts') deify the Assad dynasty through slogans such as "There is no God but Bashar!" and pursue psychological warfare against non-conformist populations. [16]

Bashar al-Assad

After Hafez al-Assad's death, his son and successor Bashar al-Assad inherited the existing personality cult, with the party hailing him as the "Young Leader" and "Hope of the People." Drawing influence from North Korea's hereditary leadership model, official propaganda in Syria ascribed divine features to the Assad family, and reveres the Assad patriarchs as the founding fathers of modern Syria. [12] [13] [14]

In 2011, the United States, European Union, and most Arab League countries called for Assad to resign following the crackdown on Arab Spring protesters during the events of the Syrian revolution, which led to the Syrian civil war. [17] As of 2022 the civil war had killed around 580,000 people, of whom at least 306,000 were non-combatants. According to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, pro-Assad forces caused more than 90% of the civilian deaths. [18] The Assad government perpetrated numerous war crimes during the course of the Syrian civil war, [a] and Assad's army, the Syrian Arab Armed Forces, also carried out several attacks with chemical weapons. [24] The deadliest chemical attack was a sarin gas strike in Ghouta on 21 August 2013, which killed between 281 and 1,729 people. [25] [note 1]

In December 2013, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay stated that findings from an inquiry by the UN implicated Assad in war crimes. Investigations by the OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism and OPCW-UN IIT concluded, respectively, that the Assad government was responsible for the 2017 Khan Shaykhun sarin attack and 2018 Douma chemical attack. On 15 November 2023, France issued an arrest warrant against al-Assad over the use of banned chemical weapons against civilians in Syria. [39] Assad categorically denied the allegations, and accused foreign countries, especially the United States, of attempting regime change. [40]

Opposition takeover

Military advances

Map of the 2024 Syrian opposition offensives Northwestern Syria offensive (2024).jpg
Map of the 2024 Syrian opposition offensives

Planning by anti-Assad forces for an offensive against Aleppo began in late 2023 but was delayed by Turkish objections. [41] [42] Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sought negotiations with the Assad government, to "determine Syria's future together," but received a negative response. [43]

On 7 December 2024, opposition forces secured complete control of Homs following approximately twenty-four hours of concentrated military engagement. The rapid collapse of government defences resulted in the hasty withdrawal of security forces, who destroyed sensitive documentation during their retreat. The capture granted insurgent forces control over critical transportation infrastructure, particularly the highway junction connecting Damascus to the Alawite coastal region, where both Assad's support base and Russian military installations were situated. [44]

Assad-allied Hezbollah forces withdrew from nearby al-Qusayr, evacuating approximately 150 armored vehicles and hundreds of fighters. The reduction in support from key allies, including Russia's diminished involvement due to its focus on its invasion of Ukraine, and Hezbollah's concurrent engagement in conflict with Israel, were believed to contribute to the government's weakened position. [44]

The takeover of Homs by opposition forces prompted widespread public celebrations, with residents participating in street demonstrations. Celebrants chanted anti-Assad slogans including: "Assad is gone, Homs is free" and "Long live Syria, down with Bashar al-Assad", removed government symbols which included portraits of Assad, while opposition fighters conducted victory celebrations including celebratory gunfire. [44]

On 7 December, Syrian rebels announced that they started surrounding Damascus after capturing nearby towns, with rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani stating that "our forces have begun implementing the final phase of encircling the capital Damascus." [45] The rebels started encircling the capital after capturing Al-Sanamayn, a town 20 kilometres (12 mi) from the southern entrance of Damascus. [46] By the evening, pro-government forces had left the towns on the outskirts of Damascus, including Jaramana, Qatana, Muadamiyat al-Sham, Darayya, Al-Kiswah, Al-Dumayr, Daraa and sites near the Mezzeh Air Base. [47]

The Syrian Army attempted to maintain public order through state media broadcasts, urging citizens to disregard what they termed "false news" aimed at destabilizing national security. Military leadership assured the population of their continued commitment to defending the country, though their ability to do so appeared increasingly limited. Opposition reconnaissance units penetrated the capital's defences, establishing positions in strategic locations throughout the city. Special operations teams conducted unsuccessful searches for Assad within Damascus. [48]

Loss of political control

"Victory of the great Syrian revolution and the fall of the criminal al-Assad regime" on Syrian state TV after the fall of Damascus to the HTS. This was its sole broadcast for several hours Screenshot From 2024-12-08 19-26-28.png
"Victory of the great Syrian revolution and the fall of the criminal al-Assad regime" on Syrian state TV after the fall of Damascus to the HTS. This was its sole broadcast for several hours

In the main square of Jaramana, protestors took down a statue of Hafez al-Assad. In the evening, pro-government forces reportedly withdrew from several suburbs where large-scale protests had broken out. [48]

Senior Assad government officials in Damascus reportedly engaged in negotiations with opposition forces regarding potential defections. These developments coincided with Iranian officials' denial of reports suggesting Assad had fled the country, though sources indicated his whereabouts in Damascus remained unknown. Following the entrance of opposition forces, Assad's presidential guard was no longer deployed at his usual residence. By the early evening of 7 December 2024 rebel forces attempting to find Assad had found no useful intelligence on his whereabouts. [48]

On 8 December, Ha'yat Tahrir al-Sham announced on its official X account that it had released its prisoners from Sednaya Prison in Damascus's periphery, one of Syria's largest detention facilities. The organization deemed the release as a symbolic and strategic victory for its forces in the face of prior human rights abuses, and representative of the downfall of the Assad government's injustices. [50] After its capture in 2024, Tahrir al-Sham published a list of escaped prison staff, who became among the most wanted fugitives in Syria after the Assad family. [51]

The opposition's entry into Damascus met minimal resistance, due to an apparent lack of military dispatches to areas of the city and the rapid dissolution of government defensive positions, allowing the capture of several districts. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed that opposition forces successfully seized several critical facilities in Damascus, including the state-media General Organization of Radio and TV building and Damascus International Airport. Their advances also secured control of major transportation arteries and strategic neighbourhoods, particularly the influential Mezzeh district. [52] [53]

Departures

First Lady Asma al-Assad had moved to Russia with the couple's three children about a week before opposition forces had begun their advance toward Damascus. Concurrent reports indicated that members of Assad's extended family, including relatives from his sister's lineage, took refuge in the United Arab Emirates. In the days before the opposition's advance, Egyptian and Jordanian officials were reported to have urged Bashar al-Assad to leave the country and form a government-in-exile, although the Egyptian Foreign Ministry and the Jordanian embassy denied doing so. [54] [55]

In the early hours of 8 December, Assad departed from Damascus International Airport to Moscow, Russia in a private aircraft, [50] [56] after which government troops stationed at the facility were dismissed from their posts. [57] According to Rami Abdel Rahman (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights), Bashar al-Assad had "left Syria via Damascus international airport". [58] [59] Following efforts by Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov to facilitate his departure, Assad, who left under great secrecy, was reported to have gone first to the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base near Latakia before proceeding to Moscow. [60] Mikhail Ulyanov (Russia's ambassador to international organizations in Vienna) announced on Telegram that Assad and his family had been granted asylum in Russia. [4] [61] [62] The Russian government said that Assad resigned the presidency following a personal decision. [63] Apart from Bashar, his brother Maher al-Assad also fled abroad, flying a helicopter to Iraq before proceeding to Russia, while two of their cousins, Ehab and Eyad Makhlouf, tried to flee to Lebanon by car but were reportedly ambushed by rebels who killed Ehab and injured Eyad. [60]

Following the departures of members of the Assad family, videos showing groups of people entering and exploring inside Bashar al-Assad's empty residence in al-Maliki were circulated online. [64]

Alleged attempt to establish an Alawite state

The December 2024 Syrian rebel offensives and the subsequent fall of the Assad regime sparked renewed speculation by some analysts about a potential revival of an Alawite state with Russian backing. [65] [12] For a brief period following the rebel takeover of Damascus, Latakia Governorate and Tartous Governorate (the historical territory of the Alawite State), were the only parts of Syria not under rebel control. Some Alawite villages there formed self-defence committees and set up checkpoints, [39] but no expected Assadist national redoubt in the region came to fruition, probably because of the mixed attitudes of the Alawite population towards the HTS-led rebels. [12] [39] [66]

According to the UK-based war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), Assad sought to establish an Alawite state on the Syrian coast as a fallback plan. [67] This proposed coastal statelet was reportedly intended to serve as a stronghold for his regime in the event of losing control over the rest of the country. [68] [69]

Russia, a key ally of Assad, allegedly rejected this plan, viewing it as an attempt to divide Syria. The SOHR claims that Assad subsequently fled to Russia on his plane after facing opposition to the proposal. [68] [70]

Political transition

HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani stated on Telegram that Syrian public institutions would not immediately be given to its military forces, and would instead temporarily be held by Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali until the full political transition was completed. Al-Jalali announced in a social media video that he planned to stay in Damascus and cooperate with the Syrian people, while expressing hope that Syria could become "a normal country" and begin to engage in diplomacy with other nations. [56] Al-Julani called events "a new chapter in the history of the region" and condemned Syria's role as "a playground for Iranian ambitions," characterized by sectarianism and corruption. [71]

Mohammed al-Bashir, head of the Syrian Salvation Government, was appointed as new prime minister of the Syrian transitional government the following day. [72]

HTS has assured that they will protect and allow Christians and other minorities to freely practice their religion. [73] [74]

Israeli invasion

Israel Defence Forces (IDF) initiated military operations in Syria's Quneitra Governorate. Armored units advanced into the buffer zone between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and the rest of Syria, targeting areas including Tel Ayouba in the central Quneitra countryside with artillery fire. [75] [76] The operation marked the first time in 50 years that Israeli forces crossed the Syrian border fence, following ceasefire agreements on 31 May 1974 in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War. [14]

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that since the Syrian Army had abandoned its positions, the 1974 border agreement with Syria had dissolved, and that to prevent any possible threat he had ordered the IDF to temporarily re-occupy the Purple Line, from which the IDF had withdrawn in 1974, until an agreement was reached with the new government in Syria. [77] [78]

Israel carried out airstrikes in Syria, targeting Khalkhala air base, the Mazzeh district of Damascus, and suspected chemical weapon storage sites. [79] Israel claimed to have carried out this airstrike to prevent the fall of weapons to Jihadists. [80] [81] [82]

Geopolitical impact

Assad's government was an important ally of Iran and a long-standing member of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance. [83] [84] Following the rebel capture of Damascus, the Iranian embassy was ransacked, with portraits of Iran's leaders torn down and discarded. [85] Iranian diplomats and Quds Force commanders left Syria in haste. [85] Many Syrians reportedly held Iran and Hezbollah responsible for supporting Assad's oppressive rule. [86] The loss of Syria also disrupted Iran's supply routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon, weakening the group's arsenal and diminishing Iran's strategic foothold in the region. [83]

Western media also described the fall of Assad as damaging to Russian foreign policy, as it exposed Putin's increasing inflexibility and struggle to keep Russia's allies in Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) afloat. [87] [88] Observers considered it probable that it would affect Putin's Ukraine strategy following the forced withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, as well as his influence in Latin America and Africa. [89] [90]

Reactions

Domestic

Opposition forces

The president of the Syrian National Coalition, Hadi al-Bahra, announced the new government December. [91] [92]

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the primary opposition force, declared Syria "liberated". The group issued proclamations via social media platforms announcing the conclusion of what they termed a "dark era" and promised a "new Syria" where "everyone lives in peace and justice prevails". Their statements specifically addressed displaced persons and former political prisoners, extending invitations for their return. [56]

Turkey and Turkish-backed SNA fighters in northern Syria continued their offensive against U.S.-backed SDF forces. [93] [94] On 9 December, SNA fighters captured the city of Manbij. [95]

Public reactions

Damascus witnessed public celebrations, particularly in the symbolic Umayyad Square, traditionally a centre of government authority housing the by-then evacuated Ministry of Defence and Syrian Armed Forces headquarters. Civilians gathered around abandoned military equipment, with social media footage documenting celebrations including music and public demonstrations. [56] [96]

In Lebanon, hundreds of people celebrated in Tripoli and Akkar, in the north of the country, and in Bar Elias, which are mostly populated by Sunni Muslims who oppose Hezbollah and the Assad government, after the fall of Damascus. [97] [98] The Syrian Ba'ath party office in Halba was stormed. [99]

International

Celebrations in Chittagong after Assad's fall Chittagong City Breaks Into Celebration After Assad's Fall 02.jpg
Celebrations in Chittagong after Assad's fall
International Governmental Organisations
Non-state actors

Analysis

Senior fellow Natasha Hall at the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies attributed the government's collapse to the weakening of Assad's traditional allies, with Russia focused on its war in Ukraine and Iran facing regional challenges. Additionally, she posited that Syria's severe economic conditions, with approximately 90 percent of the population living below the poverty line and many living in displacement camps, contributed to the erosion of government support. [56]

Senior analyst Jerome Drevon from the International Crisis Group remarked that it would be "extremely challenging" for the Syrian opposition to decide on a new governing system in Syria given the diversity of the rebel coalition, noting that while "some groups are more structured, more organized," others are "more local entities." [128]

Russian analysts and media generally blamed Assad for losing the war. Semyon Bagdasarov told Komsomolskaya Pravda that the Syrian government failed to motivate its troops and to unite the various Syrian ethnic and religious group around its cause. [129] Similarly, political scientist Andrey Kortunov wrote that Assad had failed to unite Syrians and achieve national reconciliation, comparing him to former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who was overthrown by the Taliban in 2021. [130] Journalist Vitaly Ryumshin shared this comparison, but partially defended the Syrian government, arguing that the lack of reform was due to economic sanctions on the country and loss of control over the oil resources to the United States and the Kurds. [131] In a different view, Anton Mardasov, a Russian expert on the Middle East, argued to Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Assad's failure was not due to Western sanctions but because of Al-Assad's failure to deal with the country's problems, specifically mentioning the economic crisis, endemic corruption and nepotism and "the loss of touch with reality and thinking in the paradigm of 50 years ago". Mardasov also told The New York Times that Russia's inability to assist Assad was due to its war with Ukraine. [132] [133] International editor of Moskovskij Komsomolets Andrei Yashlavsky blamed the Syrian Arab Army for failing to resist and argued that the army's ineffectiveness made Russia's attempt to aid Assad futile. [134] Russian military bloggers were particularly outraged by the fall of Syria, with some protesting against the Russian government and others blaming Assad. [135]

See also

Notes

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