Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire agreement, large scale operations ceased between opposition and pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria.[57][23] However, revolutionary groups based in northwestern Syria prepared for a resumption of hostilities, with HTS in particular strengthening its military capabilities by reforming its structures into a "conventional armed force", improving training, and setting up special forces specializing in raids and night-time operations.[23] According to the Kyiv Post, some Islamist social media accounts said that the Idlib-based rebels received some training and other support by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence.[58] Meanwhile, the Syrian government suffered from growing corruption, with researcher Charles Lister describing it as the "world's biggest narco state" whose "corrupt business elite and a powerful network of military commanders, militia leaders and warlords" were held together by drug trade revenue, especially trade of Captagon.[23] Starting in late 2022, HTS forces launched a series of infiltration and sniper attacks on government forces, leading up to the offensive. In retaliation, there was shelling of Idlib Governorate as well as Russian air strikes.[59]Aleppo had been controlled by Bashar al-Assad's government and Iranian-backed militias since the Aleppo offensive in 2016.[57][23]
According to Abu Hassan al-Hamwi, head of HTS's military wing, the offensive had been planned for a year prior to its launch. Beginning in 2019, HTS developed a military doctrine aimed at transforming loosely organized opposition and jihadist fighters into a conventional military force. The group established specialized military branches, most notably a drone unit that produced reconnaissance, attack, and suicide drones. HTS additionally established coordination with southern Syrian rebels, creating a unified command structure that incorporated leaders from approximately 25 rebel groups, with the strategic objective of encircling Damascus from multiple directions.[60] HTS initiated the offensive partly to disrupt regional powers' diplomatic normalization with the Assad regime and to counter escalating aerial attacks on northwestern Syria. The group determined that Assad's international allies were strategically constrained, with Russia committed to its war in Ukraine and both Iran and Hezbollah engaged in conflict with Israel, presenting a favorable tactical opportunity.[60]
In October 2024, a large mobilization by HTS and government forces was initiated in the Aleppo countryside, as the Syrian rebels reported that they had been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against government forces within the city of Aleppo.[61] On 26 November 2024, government forces artillery struck the opposition held town of Ariha, killing and injuring 16 civilians.[62]
Offensive
Beginning of the offensive
Situation in northwestern Syria on 28 November
On 27 November 2024, HTS announced that it had launched an offensive dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression" toward pro-government forces in western Aleppo Governorate.[63] The offensive was stated to be a response to recent artillery shelling by the Assad government against rebel-held Ariha. [54][57]
During the first ten hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including the towns of Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, Urum al-Sughra, Sheikh Aqil, Bara, Ajil, Awijil, al-Hawtah, Tal al-Dabaa, Hayr Darkal, Qubtan al-Jabal, al-Saloum, al-Qasimiyah, Kafr Basin, Hawr, Anaz and Basratoun. In addition, the 46th regiment base of government forces was besieged by the HTS and captured a few hours later.[14][64][65] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 37 Syrian government soldiers and allied militias and 60 fighters from the opposition forces were killed in the clashes.[54] A Russian special forces unit was ambushed by rebels, who later posted photos of a dead Russian soldier and captured equipment. In response, Syrian and Russian forces launched aerial assaults on areas controlled by revolutionary groups.[66] Russian fighters also conducted airstrikes around Atarib, Darat Izza, and surrounding villages, while government forces shelled rebel-controlled Idlib, Ariha, Sarmada and other areas in southern Idlib Governorate.[67][68][69]
On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib. This advance brought them within two kilometers of the M5 highway, a strategic route that had been secured by pro-government forces in 2020. HTS also attacked al-Nayrab's airport located east of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militants have a presence.[70] In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway.[71] The Syrian rebels had captured around 40 towns and villages in total by the end of the day.[57]
A Russian airstrike killed fifteen civilians in Atarib in the western Aleppo countryside. Four others were killed in either a Syrian or Russian airstrike in Darat Izza.[72] Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo.[57] An SDF fighter was killed by Turkish drone strike in the north of Raqqah Governorate.[73]
On 29 November, HTS captured the villages of Tal Karatabeen, Abu Qansa, and Al-Talhiya in Idlib countryside and Al-Mansoura, Jab Kas, and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. Strong fighting around the town of Saraqib continued.[74] By this point, other Idlib-based Islamist groups were backing the HTS advance, including Ajnad al-Kavkaz, and Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar.[5] Four civilians were killed and two others were injured by HTS shelling in the al-Hamdaniya neighborhood of Aleppo city.[74] An attack by the SDF was carried near Al-Bab with 15 SNA fighters dying.[75] Seven SNA fighters were killed in a Russian airstrike on a SNA military headquarters in Mare'.[76] Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib.[77]
On 29 November, opposition forces launched a large-scale offensive in Aleppo Governorate aimed at capturing the city of Aleppo and surrounding areas.[78] The rapid fall of Aleppo, which had taken the regime four years to capture from rebels in 2016, surprised even HTS leadership. Al-Hamwi later stated "We had a conviction, supported by historical precedent, that 'Damascus cannot fall until Aleppo falls.' The strength of the Syrian revolution was concentrated in the north, and we believed that once Aleppo was liberated, we could move southward toward Damascus."[60]
That day, revolutionaries entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city, after carrying out a double suicide attack with two car bombs.[78] HTS-led forces captured five city districts, subsequently reaching the main square and captured parts of four other districts.[79][80][81]
In Idlib and Aleppo governorates, revolutionaries captured 50 towns and villages, including the town of Saraqib, Abu al-Duhur and Maarat al-Numan amid the collapse of pro-government forces' defense lines. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, with the exception of Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah and Khanaser road.[79][20][82]
An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city.[83]
Government withdrawal and SDF advances
In the early hours of 30 November, revolutionary forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, the government headquarters in the city, as well as "more than half of Aleppo city".[84][85] By morning, revolutionary forces had seized control of most of Aleppo, forcing pro-government troops to retreat toward as-Safirah.[86]
Concurrently on 30 November, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army located in the Euphrates Shield region of Turkish occupied northern Syria announced the start of Operation Dawn of Freedom with the objective of cutting off SDF's supply networks and establishing a corridor connecting al-Bab to Tell Rifaat. SNA forces captured the town of Tadef from pro-government forces during their advances as pro-government forces began withdrawing from the region.[90][91]
Pro-government forces left a substantial amount of military equipment behind during their retreat from Aleppo governorate, including two T-90A tanks, an entire S-125 Neva system battery, a Pantsir-S1 system and a Buk-M2. Revolutionaries also captured helicopters and fighter jets at the Aleppo and Menagh air bases.[92]
Clashes between SDF and opposition forces
On 30 November, the HTS-led opposition reportedly took control of Aleppo airport after the local SDF troops opted to withdraw.[55] By afternoon on the next day, the SNA had captured the towns of as-Safirah, Khanasir, and the Kuweires airbase, while clashes occurred between SNA and SDF in the Sheikh Najjar district of Aleppo city. Concurrently HTS captured the thermal power plant, field artillery college, and the military academy on the outskirts of Aleppo.[93]
On the evening of 1 December, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive on the SDF-held town of Tell Rifaat, capturing the town along with several surrounding villages. The remaining SDF-controlled towns in the region were cut off from communication after being encircled by opposition forces.[94]
On 2 December, the SDF announced plans to evacuate Kurdish IDPs from Tel Rifaat and the Shahba Canton to SDF-held areas in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsood district and northeastern Syria.[95][96]
On the evening of 30 November 2024, HTS rapidly advanced in the Hama Governorate, capturing dozens of towns and villages in the countryside by 7 in the evening (Local Syrian time, UTC+3:00).[97] As the HTS forces started closing in on Hama,[98] pro-government forces established new military positions on the outskirts of the city, including reinforcements to Jabal Zayn al-Abidin and the towns of Taybat al Imam, Qamhana, and Khitab.[99] Additionally, Russia launched airstrikes on towns recently captured by rebels in the Idlib and Hama regions.[100] This includes one targeting a refugee camp in Idlib city that killed nine civilians and injured 62 others, and another airstrike targeting Aleppo university hospital killed eight civilians.[101]
On 2 December, Russia again launched airstrikes on opposition-held territory, including one on Idlib city that killed 11 civilians.[102][103] Opposition forces then launched a drone strike targeting pro-government military leaders near Jabal Zayn al-Abidin just north of Hama, which led to multiple deaths and injuries among their ranks.[104] In the evening, the Russian forces carried out massive airstrikes against opposition forces, the heaviest clashes since the start of the offensive. By the end of the day, opposition forces took control of several villages and shelled Hama city, killing eight civilians,[105] while government forces successfully defended Qalaat al-Madiq.[106][107]
On 3 December, opposition forces captured more than 10 towns and villages near Hama,[108] including the towns of Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, Soran, and Maardis.[109] Meanwhile, fighting between government forces and SNA were ongoing in Khanasir.[110] North of Hama, at least 17 SAA soldiers, eight HTS fighters, and two civilians were killed in clashes and airstrikes.[111]
On 4 December, pro-government forces briefly counterattacked and retook the villages of Kafr'a and Maar Shuhur,[112] while the opposition advanced to the Ghab Plain, which serves as a gateway to the majority-Alawite coastal region of Syria. Anas Alkharboutli, a photographer working for DPA, was killed in an airstrike in Morek amidst the clashes near Hama.[113] By the evening, opposition forces had cut off the roads connecting Hama to Raqqa and Aleppo and took control of several villages in the eastern Hama country side.[114] Opposition forces also captured the towns of Khitab and Mubarakat, while fighting persisted in Jabal Zayn al-Abidin.[115]
On 5 December, opposition forces entered the northeastern part of Hama city amid pro-government airstrikes on its eastern side[116] and by the afternoon, HTS-led rebels had established full control over the city, as pro-government forces withdrew.[56] In a statement, the Syrian government reasoned its withdrawal from Hama city in concurrence with "preserving the lives of civilians".[117][118]
↑ Al-Khalidi, Suleiman (December 2024). "Syrian rebels sweep into Aleppo, Russia conducts strikes in support of Assad". Reuters. With Assad backed by Russia and Iran, and Turkey supporting some of the rebels in the northwest where it maintains troops, the offensive has brought into focus the conflict's knotted geopolitics.
↑ Lilieholm, Lucas; Kourdi, Eyad; Razek, Raja; Szekeres, Edward; McCarthy, Simone; Nicholls, Catherine; Tanno, Sophie; Chowdhury, Maureen (8 December 2024). "Assad flees to Moscow as Syria rebels capture Damascus". CNN. Retrieved 8 December 2024.
Notes
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Turkey [6] [7] [8] (denied by Turkey) [9] 
Ukraine [10] (denied by Ukraine) [11] 
Mazloum Abdi 
220 killed, [41] 21 captured [43] [44] 
25 pro-Iranian militiamen killed [41] 
15 IRGC killed [45] 
1+ killed
