Northwestern Syria offensive (2024)

Last updated

Northwestern Syria offensive (2024)
Part of the Syrian civil war
Northwestern Aleppo offensive (2024).svg
Northwestern Syria offensive (2024), Aleppo.svg

  Controlled by the Syrian Arab Republic
  Controlled by the Syrian opposition
  Controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces
Date27 November 2024 – present
(4 days)
Location
Status
  • Ongoing
Territorial
changes
Belligerents

Flag of the Syrian Salvation Government.svg Syrian Salvation Government

Syrian revolution flag.svg Syrian Interim Government

Flag of Turkey.svg  Turkey [4]

Flag of Syria.svg  Syria

Flag of Russia.svg  Russia [5] [6]
Flag of Iran.svg  Iran [7]


De facto SA-NES Flag.svg  Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria [8] (since 30 November)

Contents

Commanders and leaders
Flag of the Syrian Salvation Government.svg Abu Mohammad al-Julani

Flag of Syria.svg Maj. Gen. Suhayl al-Hasan [9]
Flag of Iran.svg Brig. Gen. Kioumars Pourhashemi  [10]


Flag of Syrian Democratic Forces.svg Mazloum Abdi
Units involved

InfoboxHTS.svg HTS

Syrian revolution flag.svg Syrian National Army

Flag of the Syrian Arab Armed Forces.svg  Syrian Armed Forces

Flag of Russia.svg Russian forces

Flag of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution.svg  Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [7]
Pro-Iranian militias [11]


Flag of Syrian Democratic Forces.svg Syrian Democratic Forces

Casualties and losses
Flag of the Syrian Salvation Government.svg Syrian revolution flag.svg 183 killed [a]
c. 300 killed (Russian claim) [15]
Flag of Syria.svg Flag of Iran.svg 100 killed, [b] 14 captured [16]
Flag of Syria.svg 9 tanks captured [17] [18]
Flag of Russia.svg 1+ killed
44 civilians killed [c]

On 27 November 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups called the Military Operations Command [21] led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama Governorates in Syria.

Called Deterrence of Aggression [d] by HTS and stated as being launched in retaliation for the increased SAA shelling of civilians in the Western Aleppo countryside, [22] it is the first time opposition forces launched an attack since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire. [23] [24] [25]

On 29 November 2024, HTS and the Syrian Democratic Forces entered Aleppo and captured most of the city, amid the collapse of pro-government forces. The next day, opposition forces made rapid advances, capturing dozens of towns and villages as pro-government forces disintegrated, and advanced toward Hama in central Syria. [26]

Background

Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire agreement, large scale operations ceased between opposition and pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria. [27] [11] However, opposition groups based in northwestern Syria prepared for a resumption of hostilities, with HTS in particular strengthening its military capabilities by reforming its structures into a "conventional armed force", improving training, and setting up special forces specializing in raids and night-time operations. Meanwhile, the Syrian government suffered from growing corruption, with researcher Charles Lister describing it as the "world's biggest narco state" whose "corrupt business elite and a powerful network of military commanders, militia leaders and warlords" were held together by drug trade revenue, especially trade of Captagon. [11] Starting in late 2022, HTS forces launched a series of infiltration and sniper attacks on government forces, leading up to the offensive. Aleppo has been controlled by Bashar al-Assad's government and Iranian-backed militias since the Aleppo offensive in 2016. [27] [11]

In October 2024, a large mobilization by HTS and government forces was initiated in the Aleppo countryside, as the Syrian rebels reported that they have been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against government forces within the city of Aleppo. [28] On 26 November 2024, government forces artillery struck the opposition held town of Ariha, killing and injuring 16 civilians. [22]

Offensive

On 27 November 2024, HTS announced that it had launched an offensive dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression" toward pro-government forces in western Aleppo Governorate. [29] The Syrian opposition claimed that the offensive was a response to recent artillery shelling by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad against rebel-held Idlib, which killed at least 30 civilians. [24] [27]

Opening advances

During the first 10 hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including the towns of Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, Urm al-Sughra, Sheikh Aqil, Bara, Ajil, Awijil, al-Hawtah, Tal al-Dabaa, Hayr Darkal, Qubtan al-Jabal, al-Saloum, al-Qasimiyah, Kafr Bisin, Hawr, Aznaz and Basratoun. In addition, the 46th regiment base of government forces was besieged by the HTS and captured a few hours later. [5] [12] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 37 Syrian government soldiers and allied militias and 60 fighters from the opposition forces were killed in the clashes. [24] A Russian special forces unit was ambushed by rebels, who later posted photos of a dead Russian soldier and captured equipment. In response, Syrian and Russian forces launched aerial assaults on areas controlled by rebel groups. [30] Russian fighters also conducted airstrikes around Atarib, Darat Izza, and surrounding villages, while government forces shelled rebel-controlled Idlib, Ariha, Sarmada and other areas in southern Idlib province. [31] [32] [33]

On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib. This advance brought them within 2 kilometers of the M5 highway, a strategic route that had been secured by pro-government forces in 2020. HTS also attacked al-Nayrab's airport located east of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militants have a presence. [34] In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway. [35] The Syrian rebels had captured around 40 towns and villages in total by the end of the day. [27]

A Russian airstrike killed fifteen civilians in Atarib in the western Aleppo countryside. A further four others were killed in either a Syrian or Russian airstrike in Darat Izza. [36] Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo. [27] An SDF fighter was killed by Turkish drone strike in north of Raqqah Governorate. [37]

On 29 November, HTS captured the villages of Tal Karatabeen, Abu Qansa, and Al-Talhiya in Idlib countryside and Al-Mansoura, Jab Kas, and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. Strong fighting around the town of Saraqib continued. [19] 4 civilians were killed and 2 others were injured by HTS shelling in the al-Hamdaniya neighborhood of Aleppo city. [19] An attack by the SDF was carried near Al-Bab with 15 SNA fighters dying. [38] Seven SNA fighters were killed in a Russian airstrike on a SNA military headquarters in Mare'. [39] Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib. [40]

Battle of Aleppo

On 29 November, opposition forces entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city, after carrying out a double suicide attack with two car bombs. [41] During the latter half of the day, opposition forces seized 5 districts of Aleppo city, namely Al-Hamdaniya, New Aleppo, 3000 Apartments, Al-Jamiliya, and Salah al-Din. Clashes were reported elsewhere in the city, including its center. Twenty other towns and villages were captured by the opposition forces, including the strategic city of Saraqib amid the collapse of pro-government forces' defense lines. Other towns captured by the opposition forces included, Khan al-Sabil, At-Talhiyah, At-Tarnabah, and Jobas in Idlib countryside and the towns of Khan Touman, Shagheidele, Khalasa, Al-Hadir, Al-Qarasi, Barna, Al-Eis, Talhadiya, Zitan, Al-Mansoura and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. [42]

By late 29 November 2024, opposition forces had captured parts of Al-Sukariyya, Al-Furqan, Al-Adhamiya, and Saif al-Dawla districts of Aleppo city, as well as having claimed to have taken control of its main square. [43] [44]

In the early hours of 30 November 2024, rebel forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, the government headquarters in the city, as well as "more than half of Aleppo city". [45] [46] By morning, rebel forces had seized control of most of Aleppo, forcing pro-government troops to retreat toward as-Safirah. [47]

Elsewhere in Syria, rebels captured 39 towns and villages, including the town of Abu al-Duhur. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, with the exception of Maarat al-Numan, Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah and Khanaser road. [8] By the afternoon, opposition forces captured Maarat al-Numan, and the number of towns and villages that fell to rebel forces during the day rose to more than 50. [1]

An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city. [20]

Government withdrawal and SDF advances

On 30 November 2024, amid the collapse of pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria, the Kurdish majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), entered the towns of Dayr Hafir, Tell Aran, Tell Hasel, and the Shaykh Najjar district of Aleppo city, taking over from pro-government forces. [48] [8] In the afternoon, SDF captured Aleppo International Airport and the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa, following the withdrawal of pro-government forces. [3] Clashes between Turkish backed rebels and SDF were reported in Tell Abyad region in northern Raqqa Governorate. [38] [49]

Concurrently on 30 November, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army located in the Euphrates Shield region of Turkish occupied northern Syria announced the start of " Operation Dawn of Freedom " with the objective of cutting off SDF's supply networks and establishing a corridor connecting al-Bab to Tel Rifaat. SNA forces captured the town of Tadef from pro-government forces during their advances as pro-government forces began withdrawing from the region. [50] [51]

Advances toward Hama

On the evening of 30 November 2024, opposition forces led by HTS rapidly advanced in the Hama Governorate, and captured dozens of towns and villages in the countryside, including, Halfaya, Morek, al-Lataminah, Kafr Zita, Qalaat al-Madiq, Kafr Nabudah, Karnaz, Lahaya, al-Buwaydah, Latmin, Sawran, al-Mughayyir, Maardis, Al-Suqaylabiyah, Mharda and Taybat al-Imam. [52] In Aleppo region, rebels reportedly took control of Aleppo airport after the local SDF troops opted to withdraw. [26] Pro-government forces reportedly began withdrawing from both the city of Hama and its airbase, [52] though this was denied by the Ministry of Defense. [53] At 7 PM (Local Syrian time, UTC+3:00) Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces surrounded and started closing in on Hama, [54] capturing at least six villages. [55] Meanwhile, Israel reportedly fired artillery shells at government-held territories near occupied Golan Heights, [56] and local gunmen from Talbiseh attacked SAA forces on the highway between Hama and Homs, injuring six. [57]

In the early hours of December 1, 2024, pro-government forces established new military positions on the outskirts of Hama and its northern countryside. Reinforcements were deployed to Jabal Zayn al-Abidin and the towns of Taybat al Imam, Qamhana and Khitab. [58]

As Tahrir al-sham advanced toward Hama, some Arab and Iranian sources reported that Abu Mohammad al-Julani was killed in Idilib due to Russian and Syrian airstrikes, though these reports were not confirmed. [59]

Reactions

Analysis

Hezbollah, which was a major ally of the Syrian government during the civil war, was severely weakened during its war with Israel. The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and much of its military leadership, combined with the redeployment of Hezbollah fighters in Syria back to Lebanon, left a large power vacuum. With the Russian military concentrating on its invasion of Ukraine and Iran under significant pressure, it provided an opportunity for rebel groups to launch an offensive. [27]

According to Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, the rebels were trying to pre-empt a Syrian government offensive which was being shaped by Russian and Syrian airstrikes on rebel areas. The presence of Turkish-backed groups in the offensive is believed to be a warning from Turkey to Russia and the Syrian government to avoid any offensives in the region. [65]

See also

Notes

  1. 155 from HTS, and 28 from SNA factions. [8]
  2. 100 killed, including: [8]
    • 79 Syrian soldiers
    • 20 pro-Iranian militiamen
    • 1 Iranian soldier [7]
  3. 40 killed by Russian and SAA air and artillery strikes and 4 killed by HTS shelling. [19] [20]
  4. Arabic: ردع العدوان, romanized: Rade Aleudwan

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