Predictions of a genocide in Ethiopia

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Predictions of a genocide in Ethiopia, particularly one that targets Tigrayans, Amharas and/or Oromos, have frequently occurred during the 2020s, particularly in the context of the Tigray War and Ethiopia's broader civil conflict. [1] [2] [3]

Contents

Organizations related to the international Jewish community and otherwise involved in commemorating the Holocaust, such as the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, have expressed alarm over the acts of mass violence occurring inside Ethiopia. In October 2022, the Museum issued a public statement declaring a "heightened risk" and concluding: "Ethnic-based targeting and the commission of mass atrocities have been an intentional strategy of parties to the conflict between the Ethiopian and regional Tigrayan governments". [4]

Context

Helen Clark, Michael Lapsley and David Alton, writing in The Guardian stated that the reasons for the Rwandan genocide and crimes such as the Bosnian genocide of the Yugoslav Wars had been analysed in depth and that methods of preventing future genocides had been extensively discussed. They described the analyses as producing "reams of paper [that] were dedicated to analysing the past and pledging to heed warning signs and prevent genocide". [2] A group of 34 non-governmental organizations and 31 individuals, calling themselves African Citizens, referred to the Rwanda: The Preventable Genocide report prepared by a panel headed by former Botswana president Quett Masire for the Organisation of African Unity. [5] [6] African Citizens highlighted the sentences, "Indisputably, the most important truth that emerges from our investigation is that the Rwandan genocide could have been prevented by those in the international community who had the position and means to do so. ... The world failed Rwanda. ... [The United Nations] simply did not care enough about Rwanda to intervene appropriately." [1] Chidi Odinkalu, former head of the National Human Rights Commission of Nigeria, was one of the African Citizens. [7]

Factors

African Citizens and Clark, Lapsley & Alton listed factors that they saw as predicting a genocide, [1] [2] while Genocide Watch predicted a genocide based on the model of a genocide going through stages, which may overlap chronologically. [3]

Ethnic identity of rebel groups

The ethnic identities of the Tigray Defense ForcesOromo Liberation Army (TDF–OLA) coalition were seen by African Citizens as a factor predicting an Ethiopian genocide. [1] [7]

Federal government hate speech

African Citizens saw the federal Ethiopian government as "appeal[ing] to narrow identity [and] programming its populations for a campaign of extermination against populations almost exclusively defined by ethnicity." [1] Clark, Lapsley & Alton described government officials and allies as promoting ethnic-based hate speech using terms including "cancer," "weeds," "rats" and "terrorists". [2] Administrator of USAID Samantha Power stated in August 2021 that she was concerned about the "dehumanising rhetoric" used by government forces, fearing it would make already existing tensions even worse. [8] Genocide Watch accused prime minister Abiy Ahmed of hate speech, incitement to commit genocide and genocidal intent. [3] On 20 November, Genocide Watch classified the Ethiopian situation as including stage 4 of genocide, dehumanization. [3]

Distribution of weapons to civilians

African Citizens described the federal and Amhara Region governments as "distributing crude arms to neighbourhood and popular militias and programming them for the extermination in the name of self-defence." [1] Clark, Lapsley & Alton described the authorities as having "mobilised ... militias and vigilante groups, organised on an ethnic basis and with an ethnic agenda. [The authorities] armed them and granted them impunity." [2]

Censorship and polarization

Clark, Lapsley & Alton described the effect of censorship and intimidation of national and international media as "eliminating any middle ground". [2] On 20 November, Genocide Watch classified the Ethiopian situation as including stage 6 of genocide, polarization. [3]

Ethnic-based detention camps

African Citizens estimated the number of Tigrayans held in detention camps "just for the crime of who they are or where they come from" to be 40,000 on 26 November 2021. [1] Clark, Lapsley & Alton estimated, on the same date, 30,000 Tigrayan civilians detained in Addis Ababa, 15,000 Tigrayan military detained since late 2020, and unknown numbers of Tigrayans held in western Tigray and elsewhere in Ethiopia. [2] On 20 November, Genocide Watch classified the Ethiopian situation as including stage 8 of genocide, persecution. [3]

Continuation of gross international law violations

Genocide Watch argued that precedents during the Tigray War of "extrajudicial killings, sexual violence, and torture, ... [and] ethnic militias that [were] committing crimes against humanity," by all parties to the conflict, including the federal government against Tigrayans, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) against Amharas, and the Ethiopian National Defense Force against Oromos, included "genocidal violence" that risked amplifying into a threat to "all of Ethiopia". [3] On 20 November, Genocide Watch classified the Ethiopian situation as already including stage 9 of genocide, extermination. [3]

Clark, Lapsley & Alton argued that prior to late November 2021, "only one side [had] committed violations on a scale and nature that could credibly qualify as genocide ... the coalition of the Ethiopian government, under the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed; the Amhara regional government; and the state of Eritrea". [2]

Lack of international reactions

African Citizens argued that the United Nations and the African Union had, as of 26 November, "failed to take any concrete steps to prevent the real likelihood of imminent mass extermination, beginning with all the internees." [1] Clark, Lapsley & Alton described the international community as being "divided, confused and indecisive". They described the African Union as having "listened deferentially to the government's denials and obfuscations," European powers as having "dithered" and the United States (US) as having "toned down its condemnations". [2]

Trigger event

African Citizens predicted that the threat of Addis Ababa being taken over by TDF–OLA would, if the genocide factors of 26 November 2021 remained in place, be likely to trigger an "exterminat[ion]" of "the internees – wherever they are held". [1]

Calls for genocide prevention

On 20 November 2021, Genocide Watch called for the predicted genocide to be prevented. [3] On 21 November, Chidi Odinkalu called for genocide prevention, stating, "We need to focus on an urgent programme of Genocide Prevention advocacy on Ethiopia NOW. It may be too late in 2 weeks, guys." [7] On 26 November, African Citizens and Clark, Lapsley & Alton also called for the predicted genocide to be prevented. [1] [2]

Organizations related to the international Jewish community and otherwise involved in commemorating the Holocaust, such as the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, have expressed alarm over the conflict's events. In October 2022, the Museum issued a public statement declaring a "heightened risk" and concluding: "Ethnic-based targeting and the commission of mass atrocities have been an intentional strategy of parties to the conflict between the Ethiopian and regional Tigrayan governments". [4]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Government of Ethiopia</span> Administrative units of Ethiopia

The government of Ethiopia is the federal government of Ethiopia. It is structured in a framework of a federal parliamentary republic, whereby the prime minister is the head of government. Executive power is exercised by the government. The prime minister is chosen by the lower chamber of the Federal Parliamentary Assembly. Federal legislative power is vested in both the government and the two chambers of parliament. The judiciary is more or less independent of the executive and the legislature. They are governed under the 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia. There is a bicameral parliament made of the 108-seat House of Federation and the 547-seat House of Peoples' Representatives. The House of Federation has members chosen by the regional councils to serve five-year terms. The House of Peoples' Representatives is elected by direct election, who in turn elect the president for a six-year term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ethiopian nationalism</span> Political ideology

Ethiopian nationalism, also referred to as Ethiopianism or Ethiopianness, according to its proponents, asserts that Ethiopians are a single nation, and promotes the social equality of all component ethnic groups. Ethiopian people as a whole regardless of ethnicity constitute sovereignty as one polity. Ethiopian nationalism is a type of civic nationalism in that it is multi-ethnic in nature, and promotes multiculturalism.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014–2016 Oromo protests</span> Civil uprising in Ethiopia

The 2014–2016 Oromo protests were a series of protests and resistance first sparked on 25 April 2014. The initial actions were taken in opposition to the Addis Ababa Master Plan, and resumed on 12 November 2015 by university students and farmers in the town of Ginchi, located 80 km southwest of Addis Ababa, encircled by the Oromia region. The plan was to expand the capital into the Oromia special zone, leading to fears that native Oromo farmers would lose their land and be displaced. The plan was later dropped but protests continued, highlighting issues such as marginalization and human rights. Mulatu Gemechu, deputy chairman of the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress, expressed to Reuters: "so far, we have compiled a list of 33 protesters killed by armed security forces that included police and soldiers but I am very sure the list will grow". Protesters demanded social and political reforms, including an end to human rights abuses like government killings of civilians, mass arrests, government land seizures, and political marginalization of opposition groups. The government responded by restricting access to the internet and attacking as well as arresting protesters.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Ethiopian general election</span>

The 2021 Ethiopian general election to elect members of the House of Peoples' Representatives was held on 21 June 2021 and 30 September 2021. Regional elections were also held on those dates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Prosperity Party</span> Ruling political party in Ethiopia

The Prosperity Party is a political party in Ethiopia that was established on 1 December 2019 as a successor to the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) by incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The merger into a countrywide party is part of Abiy's general policy of distancing the country's politics from ethnic federalism. It ran for the first time in the 2021 general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tigray War</span> Armed conflict in Ethiopia from 2020 to 2022

The Tigray War was an armed conflict that lasted from 3 November 2020 to 3 November 2022. The war was primarily fought in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia between forces allied to the Ethiopian federal government and Eritrea on one side, and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) on the other.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mai Kadra massacre</span> 2020 ethnic cleansing in the Tigray War of Ethiopia

The Mai Kadra massacre was a massacre and ethnic cleansing carried out during the Tigray War on 9–10 November 2020 in the town of Mai Kadra in Welkait in northwestern Ethiopia, near the Sudanese border. Responsibility was attributed to a pro-TPLF youth group and forces loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the EHRC-OHCHR Tigray Investigation, preliminary investigations by Amnesty International, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) and the Ethiopian Human Rights Council (EHRCO), and interviews conducted in Mai Kadra by Agence France-Presse. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and EHRC reported that at least 5 Tigrayans were killed in Mai Kadra by Amhara militas such as Fano in retaliation. Tigrayan refugees in Sudan told multiple news outlets that Tigrayans in Mai Kadra were targeted by either Amhara militias, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), or both.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ethnic discrimination in Ethiopia</span> Ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia during the 20th and 21st centuries

Ethnic discrimination in Ethiopia during and since the Haile Selassie epoch has been described using terms including "racism", "ethnification", "ethnic identification, ethnic hatred, ethnicization", and "ethnic profiling". During the Haile Selassie period, Amhara elites perceived the southern minority languages as an obstacle to the development of an Ethiopian national identity. Ethnic discrimination occurred during the Haile Selassie and Mengistu Haile Mariam epochs against Hararis, Afars, Tigrayans, Eritreans, Somalis and Oromos. Ethnic federalism was implemented by Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leader Meles Zenawi and discrimination against Amharas, Ogaden, Oromos and other ethnic groups continued during TPLF rule. Liberalisation of the media after Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018 led to strengthening of media diversity and strengthening of ethnically focussed hate speech. Ethnic profiling targeting Tigrayans occurred during the Tigray War that started in November 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Genocides in history</span> Overview of genocide in a historical context

Genocide is the deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group. The term was coined in 1944 by Raphael Lemkin. It is defined in Article 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG) of 1948 as "any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group, as such: killing members of the group; causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting on the group's conditions of life, calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; [and] forcibly transferring children of the group to another group."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">War crimes in the Tigray War</span>

All sides of the Tigray War have been repeatedly accused of committing war crimes since it began in November 2020. In particular, the Ethiopian federal government, the State of Eritrea, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Amhara regional forces have been the subject of numerous reports of both war crimes and crimes against humanity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tigrayan peace process</span> Process of ending the Tigray War

The Tigrayan peace process encompasses the series of proposals, meetings, agreements and actions that aimed to resolve the Tigray War.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ethiopian civil conflict (2018–present)</span> Episode of intrastate conflicts during Abiy Ahmeds administration

Following the 2018 dissolution of the ethnic federalist, dominant party political coalition, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, there was an increase in tensions within the country, with newly resurgent regional and ethnically based factions carrying out armed attacks on military and civilians in multiple conflicts throughout Ethiopia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">EHRC–OHCHR Tigray investigation</span>

The EHRC–OHCHR Tigray investigation is a human rights investigation launched jointly by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) in mid-2021 into human rights violations of the Tigray War that started in November 2020. The EHRC–OHCHR joint investigation team's report was published on 3 November 2021.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">TDF–OLA joint offensive</span> 2021 military campaign into Ethiopia as part of the Tigray War

The TDF–OLA joint offensive was a rebel offensive in the Tigray War and the OLA insurgency starting in late October 2021 launched by a joint rebel coalition of the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) against the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and government. The TDF and OLA took control of several towns south of the Amhara Region in the direction of the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa in late October and early November. Claims of war crimes included that of the TDF extrajudicially executing 100 youths in Kombolcha, according to deral authorities.

This Timeline of the Tigray War is part of a chronology of the military engagements of the Tigray War, a civil war that began in the Tigray Region of Ethiopia in early November 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tigrayan nationalism</span> Ethnic nationalism

Tigrayan nationalism is an ethnic nationalism that advocates the interests of Tigrayan people in Ethiopia. Inspired predominantly by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) with its predecessor Tigray Liberation Front (TLF), this type of nationalism holds that Tigrayans are an independent group with unique ancestry, heritage, history and culture outside Ethiopia. As such, they claim Tigray is the source of Ethiopian civilization and utterly a benefactor of state-building without other local ethnic groups. Tigrayan nationalists accuse Amharas of imposing their cultural, economic and political hegemony over Tigrayans.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Persecution of Amhara people</span>

Since the 1990s, the Amhara people of Ethiopia have been subject to ethnic violence, including massacres by Tigrayan, Oromo and Gumuz ethnic groups among others, which some have characterized as a genocide. Large-scale killings and grave human rights violations followed the implementation of the ethnic-federalist system in the country. In most of the cases, the mass murders were silent with perpetrators from various ethno-militant groups—from TPLF/TDF, OLF–OLA, and Gumuz armed groups.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Welkait question</span> Controversial dispute regarding the Ethiopian city Welkait

The Welkait question involves a controversial territorial dispute surrounding the Ethiopian area Welkait, which is situated in the present-day Tigray Region. Welkait had been an independent area but was incorporated within Begmeder province, but after the fall of the Derg in 1991, the area was given by the TPLF government to Tigray's Western Zone. During Abiy Ahmed administration, the Tigray and Welkait Committee counterparts held peaceful talks in Gondar on 19 April 2018. Abiy pleaded the Welkait question should be addressed in peaceful resolution.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Anti-Tigrayan sentiment</span> Ethnic hatred against Tigrayans in Ethiopia

Anti-Tigrayan sentiment is a broad opposition, discrimination, hatred and bias against Tigrayans that reside in northern Ethiopia. During the EPRDF era, anti-Tigrayan views have been common among Ethiopians, particularly after the 2005 general election. Not only the irregularities of election caused the sentiment, but also the EPRDF was becoming more authoritarian dictatorship. It also created discontent among Amharas and Oromos; the Oromos demanded justice after an abrupt master plan to expand boundaries of Addis Ababa into Oromia Region, resulted in mass protests.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Mustapha, Ogunsakin (2021-11-26). "Group warns UN over imminent genocide in Ethiopia". Citizens' Gavel . Archived from the original on 2021-11-27. Retrieved 2021-11-27.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Clark, Helen; Lapsley, Michael; Alton, David (2021-11-26). "The warning signs are there for genocide in Ethiopia – the world must act to prevent it". The Guardian . Archived from the original on 2021-11-27. Retrieved 2021-11-27.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ross, Eric; Hill, Nat (2021-11-20). "Genocide Emergency: Ethiopia". Genocide Watch . Archived from the original on 2021-11-23. Retrieved 2021-11-23.
  4. 1 2 "Museum Concerned about Risk of Genocide in Ethiopia". 25 October 2022.
  5. International panel of eminent personalities (2004-01-21). "Rwanda: The Preventable Genocide" (PDF). African Union . Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-04-15. Retrieved 2021-11-27.
  6. The Organisation of African Unity later became the African Union.
  7. 1 2 3 Odinkalu, Chidi (2021-11-21). "Lessons from Rwanda: dangers of an Ethiopian genocide increase as rebels threaten Addis". Eritrea Hub . Archived from the original on 2021-11-22. Retrieved 2021-11-27.
  8. "USAID chief concerned by 'dehumanising rhetoric' in Ethiopia amid war in Tigray region". Reuters . August 5, 2021. Retrieved October 11, 2022.