Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018

Last updated
Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018
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  Senator Mike Dunleavy.jpg Mark Begich, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee Mike Dunleavy Mark Begich
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kevin Meyer Debra Call
Popular vote143,612123,446
Percentage51.5%44.3%
Governor before election

Bill Walker
Independent

Elected Governor

Mike Dunleavy
Republican

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for Governor and Lieutenant Governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party.

Alaska State of the United States of America

Alaska is a U.S. state in the northwest extremity of North America, just across the Bering Strait from Asia. The Canadian province of British Columbia and territory of Yukon border the state to the east, its most extreme western part is Attu Island, and it has a maritime border with Russia to the west across the Bering Strait. To the north are the Chukchi and Beaufort seas—southern parts of the Arctic Ocean. The Pacific Ocean lies to the south and southwest. It is the largest state in the United States by area and the seventh largest subnational division in the world. In addition, it is the 3rd least populous and the most sparsely populated of the 50 United States; nevertheless, it is by far the most populous territory located mostly north of the 60th parallel in North America: its population—estimated at 738,432 by the United States Census Bureau in 2015— is more than quadruple the combined populations of Northern Canada and Greenland. Approximately half of Alaska's residents live within the Anchorage metropolitan area. Alaska's economy is dominated by the fishing, natural gas, and oil industries, resources which it has in abundance. Military bases and tourism are also a significant part of the economy.

Contents

Independent candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may form a ticket that will appear on the general election ballot, provided that both candidates on the ticket collect enough valid petition signatures, as mandated by the Alaska Division of Elections.

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.[ clarification needed ] In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. [1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former Senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection. [2]

The Alaska Democratic Party is the affiliate branch of the United States Democratic Party in the state of Alaska, headquartered in Anchorage.

Alaskan Independence Party political party seeking independence for the U.S. state of Alaska

The Alaskan Independence Party (AKIP) is a political party and independence movement in the U.S. state of Alaska that advocates an in-state referendum which includes the option of Alaska becoming an independent country. The party also advocates positions similar to those of the Constitution Party, Republican Party and Libertarian Party, supporting gun rights, privatization, home schooling, and limited government.

Governor

Declared

  • Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator [3] [4]
  • William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010 [5]
Mark Begich Democratic U.S. Senator from Alaska

Mark Peter Begich is an American politician who was a United States Senator from Alaska from 2009 to 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously was Mayor of Anchorage from 2003 to 2009.

Polling

Endorsements

Results

Results by State House district: Begich--80-90% Begich--70-80% Begich--60-70% 2018 AK gubernatorial ADL primary.svg
Results by State House district:
  Begich—80–90%
  Begich—70–80%
  Begich—60–70%
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mark Begich33,45185.3
Libertarian William Toien5,79014.8
Total votes39,241100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Declared

  • Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative [7] [8]

Withdrawn

Edgar Blatchford was born in Nome, Alaska in 1950 and relocated to Seward, Alaska in 1960. He has served as mayor of Seward (1999-2003) and had sought the 2016 Democratic Party nomination for United States Senator from Alaska, but lost the nomination in the Alaskan primary to Ray Metcalfe. Blatchford filed to run for lieutenant governor in the 2018 Democratic primary, but dropped out of the race on June 8, 2018. He has been a professor at the University of Anchorage Alaska (UAA) since 1995, teaching in the Department of Journalism and Public Communications. Blatchford also served as Commissioner of the Department of Community and Regional Affairs (1990-1994) under governor Walter J. Hickel and Commissioner of Community and Economic Development (2003-2005) under governor Frank Murkowski. In addition, Blatchford has also served on the board of directors of Chugach Alaska Corporation on several occasions.

Seward, Alaska City in Alaska, United States

Seward is an incorporated home rule city in Alaska, United States. Located on Resurrection Bay, a fjord of the Gulf of Alaska on the Kenai Peninsula, Seward is situated on Alaska's southern coast, approximately 120 miles by road from Alaska's largest city, Anchorage, and nearly 1,300 miles from the closest point in the contiguous United States at Cape Flattery, Washington.

Results

Results by State House district: Call--80-90% Call--70-80% Call--60-70% 2018 AK Lt. gubernatorial ADL primary.svg
Results by State House district:
  Call—80–90%
  Call—70–80%
  Call—60–70%
Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Debra Call34,291100.0
Total votes34,291100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

Eliminated in primary [10]

  • Dorian Colbry
  • Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon [5]
  • Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
  • Merica Hlatcu
  • Michael Sheldon
  • Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor [11]
Mead Treadwell American politician

Louis Mead Treadwell II is an American businessman and politician who served as lieutenant governor of Alaska from 2010 to 2014. Treadwell is the former Chair of the U.S. Arctic Research Commission serving from 2006 to 2010. He is a member of the Republican Party and was a candidate for the 2014 U.S. Senate election in Alaska.

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Dunleavy		Scott
Hawkins		Mead
Treadwell		OtherUndecided
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska) June 5–7, 2018400± 4.9%46%7%19%3%25%

Results

Results by State House district: Dunleavy--80-90% Dunleavy--70-80% Dunleavy--60-70% Dunleavy--50-60% Dunleavy--40-50% Dunleavy--30-40% Treadwell--40-50% 2018 AK gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by State House district:
  Dunleavy—80–90%
  Dunleavy—70–80%
  Dunleavy—60–70%
  Dunleavy—50–60%
  Dunleavy—40–50%
  Dunleavy—30–40%
  Treadwell—40–50%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike Dunleavy43,80261.5
Republican Mead Treadwell22,78032.0
Republican Michael Sheldon1,6402.3
Republican Merica Hlatcu1,0641.5
Republican Thomas Gordon8841.4
Republican Gerald Heikes4990.7
Republican Darin Colbry4160.6
Total votes71,195100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Declared

Declined

Results

Results by State House district: Meyer--50-60% Meyer--40-50% Meyer--30-40% Meyer--<30% Grunwald--40-50% Grunwald--30-40% Grunwald--<30% Stevens--50-60% Stevens--<30% Jackson--<30% 2018 AK Lt. Gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by State House district:
  Meyer—50–60%
  Meyer—40–50%
  Meyer—30–40%
  Meyer—<30%
  Grunwald—40–50%
  Grunwald—30–40%
  Grunwald—<30%
  Stevens—50–60%
  Stevens—<30%
  Jackson—<30%
Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kevin Meyer23,83835.8
Republican Edie Grunwald18,09727.1
Republican Gary Stevens8,12312.2
Republican Lynn Gattis6,15610.4
Republican Sharon Jackson5,3948.1
Republican Stephen Wright4,3216.5
Total votes66,671100.0

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

Lieutenant Governor

Withdrew

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent Governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day). [38] [39] However, Walker and Mallott will still remain on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4. [40]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [41] Lean ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [42] Tilt RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [43] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [44] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [45] [lower-alpha 1] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico [46] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [47] TossupNovember 5, 2018
The Washington Post [48] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [49] Lean RNovember 5, 2018

Endorsements

Mark Begich (D)
Statewide and local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mike Dunleavy (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Federal politicians
State and Local politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Alaska Native Corporation
Bill Walker (I) (withdrew)
Organizations

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Bill
Walker (I)		Mike
Dunleavy (R)		Mark
Begich (D)		Billy
Toien (L)		OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey Research October 26–29, 2018500± 4.4%8%43%42%3%–4%
Alaska Survey Research October 19–22, 2018500± 4.4%5%48%44%––3%
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%27%43%26%––4%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 11–12, 2018645–24%43%23%––9%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%27%47%23%––4%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%23%44%29%––4%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%26%36%24%–2%12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker) June 22–28, 2018800± 3.4%28%36%22%––15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%28%32%28%––12%
Alaska Survey Research June 15–21, 2018654± 3.8%23%38%33%––6%
with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Begich (D)		Mike
Dunleavy (R)		Undecided
Alaska Survey Research October 12–14, 2018500± 4.4%45%52%4%
Alaska Survey Research October 1–6, 2018500± 4.4%41%55%5%
Alaska Survey Research September 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%47%50%3%
Harstad Strategic Research August 13–16, 2018602± 4.0%46%44%–
Harstad Strategic Research (D) June 21–26, 2018602± 4.0%50%41%9%
Alaska Survey Research March 25–29, 2018761± 3.6%53%42%5%

Results

Alaska gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Republican Mike Dunleavy 143,612 51.55% +5.67%
Democratic Mark Begich123,44644.31%N/A
Independent Bill Walker (incumbent) (withdrawn)5,6422.03%-46.07%
Libertarian William Toien5,3041.90%-1.31%
n/a Write-ins5930.21%-0.11%
Total votes278,597100.0%N/A
Republican gain from Independent

Notes

  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

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References

  1. ↑ Hertz, Nathaniel (April 4, 2018). "Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker". Anchorage Daily News .
  2. ↑ Bohrer, Becky (June 2, 2018). "Former Sen. Begich to challenge Walker for Alaska governor". Associated Press .
  3. ↑ Herz, Nathaniel (April 30, 2016). "Fear of a Begich bid for governor looms large over Alaska GOP convention". Alaska Dispatch News . Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  4. 1 2 3 Herz, Nathaniel (May 28, 2017). "As some drop hints about running for Alaska governor in 2018, Walker remains a wild card". Alaska Dispatch News . Retrieved May 29, 2017.
  5. 1 2 "2018 Primary Candidate List". Alaska Division Of Elections. Retrieved June 2, 2018.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Election results
  7. 1 2 3 "Alaska lieutenant governor candidate says she is running with Begich in Democratic primary". Anchorage Daily News. 2018-06-01. Retrieved 2018-06-01.
  8. 1 2 Mauer, Richard (June 8, 2018). "Blatchford drops out of race for lieutenant governor". KTUU News. Retrieved June 9, 2018.
  9. ↑ "Dunleavy jumps back in governors race". Must Read Alaska. 2017-12-21. Retrieved 2017-12-21.
  10. ↑ Alaska Republican Party (August 21, 2018). "State of Alaska Official Ballot" (PDF). www.elections.alaska.gov/. Alaska Division of Elections.
  11. ↑ http://www.ktva.com/story/38328900/mead-treadwell-launches-gubernatorial-bid.Missing or empty |title= (help)
  12. ↑ "Breaking: Hawkins files for governor; focus will be on economy, dividends, crime - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. 2017-09-21. Retrieved 2017-09-25.
  13. ↑ DeMarban, Alex (July 2, 2018). "Republican Scott Hawkins withdraws from Alaska governor's race, citing entry of Treadwell". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved August 10, 2018.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Reynolds, Casey (February 1, 2017). "Game Theory: The One Question That Could Decide Who Alaska's Next Governor Will Be". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved February 2, 2017.
  15. ↑ Reynolds, Casey (February 17, 2017). "Friday in the Sun!!! (February 17)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved February 24, 2017.
  16. ↑ "Letter of Intent Form". aws.state.ak.us. Retrieved 2017-09-12.
  17. ↑ Buxton, Matt (June 16, 2016). "Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan withdraws from U.S. Senate race". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner . Retrieved July 19, 2016.
  18. ↑ Mike Chennault 3%
  19. 1 2 Mike Chennault 4%
  20. ↑ "Lynn Gattis files for lieutenant governor - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. 2017-08-04. Retrieved 2017-09-05.
  21. ↑ Hickman, Matt (21 September 2017). "Grunwald, mother of murdered Palmer teen, joins race for Lt. Governor". Alaska Frontiersman . Retrieved December 9, 2017.
  22. ↑ Downing, Suzanne (April 12, 2018). "GOP Sharon Jackson files for lieutenant governor". Must Read Alaska. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
  23. ↑ Maguire, Sean (September 7, 2017). "State Senator Kevin Meyer files to be candidate for Lt. Governor, no running mate in mind". KTUU-TV . Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  24. ↑ Desroches, Kayla (August 1, 2017). "State Sen. Gary Stevens files to run for lieutenant governor". Alaska Public Media . Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  25. ↑ Brooks, James (August 2, 2017). "Kodiak senator is first to seek lieutenant governor's office". Juneau Empire . Retrieved September 8, 2017.
  26. ↑ "They are running on principle – just ask them". 2018-03-15.
  27. ↑ Manning, Phillip (July 19, 2017). "Senator David Wilson files for lieutenant governor race". Alaska Public Media . Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  28. ↑ Manning, Phillip (July 20, 2017). "Senator David Wilson says he's not running for Lt. Governor, he filed by accident". Alaska Public Media . Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  29. ↑ Baird, Austin (July 20, 2017). "Freshman senator launches bid for lieutenant governor, scraps campaign a day later". KTUU-TV . Retrieved September 5, 2017.
  30. ↑ "Heads and Tails: Campaigns, fundraisers, gaffes, and galas - Must Read Alaska". Must Read Alaska. 2017-08-08. Retrieved 2017-09-05.
  31. 1 2 Press, Associated (May 6, 2018). "Gov. Walker to enter Democratic primary in re-election bid" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  32. ↑ Juneau, Andrew Kitchenman, Alaska Public Media & KTOO -. "Yes, independents can run in Democratic primary, says Alaska Supreme Court" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  33. ↑ Klint, Chris (June 1, 2018). "Walker won't run in Democratic primary". KTVA. Retrieved June 2, 2018.
  34. ↑ Zak, Annie (2018-10-19). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved 20 October 2018.
  35. ↑ Maguire, Sean. "Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott files letter of intent for re-election" . Retrieved 2017-09-05.
  36. ↑ Zak, Annie (2018-10-19). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved 19 October 2018.
  37. ↑ CNN, Caroline Kelly,. "Alaska Gov. Bill Walker suspends re-election bid". CNN. Retrieved 2018-11-08.
  38. ↑ Hanlon, Tegan (October 19, 2018). "Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News .
  39. ↑ Johnson, Kirk (October 19, 2018). "Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska, Suspends Campaign Amid Sinking Polls". The New York Times . Retrieved October 19, 2018.
  40. ↑ Zak, Annie; Hanlon, Tegan (September 4, 2018). "Under pressure to withdraw, Begich reaffirms plan to stay in Alaska governor's race". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 21, 2018.
  41. ↑ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  42. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  43. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  44. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.
  45. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News . 2018-11-09.
  46. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
  47. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  48. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
  49. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. 2018-10-17. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  50. ↑ Buxton, Matt (June 28, 2018). "Former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles endorses Begich in race for governor | The Midnight Sun". The Midnight Sun.
  51. ↑ Byrnes, Jesse (October 19, 2018). "Alaska governor Walker suspends reelection campaign". The Hill . Retrieved October 19, 2018.
  52. ↑ Walker, Rhiannon (September 18, 2018). "Former First Lady Bella Hammond endorses Begich". webcenter11.com.
  53. ↑ Beltrami, Vince (October 22, 2018). "Alaska AFL-CIO Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaska AFL-CIO.
  54. ↑ Parker, Tim (October 23, 2018). "NEA-Alaska Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". NEA-Alaska. NEA-Alaska’s Political Action Committee on Education.
  55. ↑ Cler, Jessica (July 27, 2018). "Planned Parenthood Votes Endorses Mark Begich for Governor of Alaska". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Planned Parenthood Votes Northwest and Hawaii.
  56. ↑ "Mark Begich for Governor - The Alaska Center". The Alaska Center.
  57. ↑ "Alaskans Together for Equality Endorses Mark Begich for Governor". Alaskans Together For Equality. August 24, 2018.
  58. ↑ Chris Klint (September 5, 2018). "APD's union backs Begich for governor". KTVA.
  59. ↑ Donald J. Trump. ".@MikeDunleavyGov will make a fantastic Governor of Alaska. Mike is for Energy and Jobs, is tough on Crime, loves our Vets and our Great Second Amendment. Mike has my Complete and Total Endorsement!". Twitter.
  60. 1 2 "Congressman Don Young & Senator Dan Sullivan Support Mike Dunleavy as Alaska's next Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 22, 2018.
  61. ↑ Brooks, James (October 23, 2018). "After Walker quits, governor race now 'down to the wire'". Juneau Empire .
  62. ↑ Kitchenman, Andrew (July 18, 2018). "Parnell endorses Dunleavy for governor". ktoo.org.
  63. ↑ "Mead Treadwell Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor". Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 4, 2018.
  64. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Thrilled to have the endorsement of my colleague, Senator MacKinnon. Thank you Anna for your support!". Facebook.
  65. ↑ Suzanne Downing (May 16, 2018). "Dunleavy signs three as state campaign co-chairs". Must Read Alaska.
  66. ↑ Suzanne Downing (March 5, 2018). "Dunleavy gets a big endorsement from …". Must Read Alaska.
  67. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "I am honored to receive the endorsement of General Joe Ralston. He has been trusted with leading the Alaskan Command, NATO, and serving on the Joint Chiefs. His trust in me is humbling and inspiring". Facebook.
  68. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "Many of us live in Alaska for the unmatched sporting opportunities. I'm proud to earn the endorsement of the Sportsmen's Conservation Alliance, which works to preserve Alaska's fishing, hunting and trapping outdoor heritage traditions". Facebook.
  69. ↑ Mike Dunleavy for Governor. "The Alaska Outdoor Council works tirelessly for the preservation of outdoor pursuits in Alaska, and conservation of the habitats upon which they depend. I am proud to receive their endorsement in the primary". Facebook.
  70. ↑ Kortnie Horazdovsky (October 8, 2018). "State public safety union endorses Dunleavy, Anchorage officers endorse Begich". KTUU.com.
  71. ↑ "NRA Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. September 26, 2018.
  72. ↑ Anna Rose MacArthur (October 23, 2018). "Calista Switches Endorsement To Dunleavy After Walker Drops Out Of Governor's Race". KYUK.
  73. ↑ "Arctic Slope Regional Corporation Endorses Mike Dunleavy for Governor" (PDF). Alaskans for Dunleavy. October 26, 2018.
  74. ↑ "Centrist Project endorses Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK)" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  75. ↑ Zak, Annie (2018-08-25). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Gov. Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News .
  76. ↑ Zak, Annie (2018-08-27). "NEA-Alaska endorses Walker for re-election". Anchorage Daily News .
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