Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018

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Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
Flag of Idaho.svg
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  Brad Little - 7-1-09 (16140613632) (cropped).jpg PauletteJordanIF7a (cropped).jpg
Nominee Brad Little Paulette Jordan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote361,661231,081
Percentage59.8%38.2%
Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018.svg
County Results
Little:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Jordan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Butch Otter
Republican

Elected Governor

Brad Little
Republican

The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next Governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term, [1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15. [2]

Republican Party (United States) Major political party in the United States

The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP, is one of the two major political parties in the United States; the other is its historic rival, the Democratic Party.

Butch Otter American businessman and politician

Clement Leroy "Butch" Otter is an American businessman and politician, who served as the 32nd governor of Idaho, from 2007 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he was elected in 2006, and reelected in 2010, and 2014. Otter served as lieutenant governor from 1987 to 2001 and in U.S. Congress from the first district from 2001 to 2007.

Contents

Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee, who lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by a wide margin for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

Paulette Jordan American politician

Paulette Jordan is a Native American politician who served in the Idaho House of Representatives as a member of the Idaho Democratic Party from December 1, 2014 until February 14, 2018. She previously served on the Coeur d’Alene Tribal Council, its sovereign government. During her final term she was the only Democrat serving in the Idaho Legislature from North Idaho. She was the Democratic nominee for Governor of Idaho in the 2018 election against Lieutenant Governor Brad Little.

Democratic Party (United States) political party in the United States

The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. Tracing its heritage back to Thomas Jefferson and James Madison's Democratic-Republican Party, the modern-day Democratic Party was founded around 1828 by supporters of Andrew Jackson, making it the world's oldest active political party.

Brad Little (politician) 33rd Governor of Idaho

Bradley Jay Little is an American politician serving as the 33rd Governor of Idaho since January 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Idaho from 2009 to 2019. Little served in the Idaho Senate from 2001 to 2009 where he chaired the majority caucus and represented Legislative Districts 8 and 11. He won the 2018 gubernatorial election against Democratic nominee Paulette Jordan, the seventh straight for the Republican Party in Idaho.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 (439,830 votes).The previous high was 452,535 votes in 2010.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Tommy Ahlquist

John Thomas "Tommy" Ahlquist III is an American business owner, commercial real-estate developer, and retired physician from the State of Idaho. He was a candidate for the Republican Party nomination for Governor of Idaho in the 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election.

A perennial candidate is a political candidate who frequently runs for an elected office but seldom wins. The term is not generally extended to incumbent politicians who successfully defend their seats repeatedly.

Raúl Labrador American politician

Raúl Rafael Labrador is an American politician who served as the U.S. Representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district from 2011 to 2019. He is a member of the Republican Party. Labrador previously represented District 14B in the Idaho House of Representatives from 2006 to 2010. Labrador opted not to seek another term in Congress to run for Governor of Idaho in the 2018 election; he lost the Republican primary to Idaho Lieutenant Governor Brad Little.

Withdrew

Russ Fulcher American politician

Russell Mark Fulcher is an American politician, currently serving as the U.S. Representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district. A Republican, he previously served in the Idaho Senate where he represented Legislative District 21 from 2005 to 2012 and Legislative District 22 from 2012 until 2014. Fulcher ran for the position of Governor of Idaho in 2014 but lost the nomination to incumbent Butch Otter. He was elected to the U.S. House in the 2018 elections and succeeded incumbent Raúl Labrador, who retired from Congress to run, unsuccessfully, for Governor of Idaho.

Idahos 1st congressional district

Idaho's 1st congressional district is one of two congressional districts in the U.S. state of Idaho. It comprises the western portion of the state.

Declined

Lori Otter First Lady of Idaho

Lori Otter is an American educator, author, and former beauty queen who served as First Lady of Idaho from 2007 to 2019. She was crowned Miss Idaho USA in 1991. Otter is married to the former Governor of Idaho, C. L. "Butch" Otter.

Lawrence G. Wasden is the current Attorney General of the state of Idaho serving since 2003, and is the longest serving Attorney General in Idaho history.

Idaho Attorney General

The Attorney General of Idaho is an elected office that assists local law enforcement agencies in the state of Idaho, provides legal representation for state agencies, and enforces consumer protection laws. The current attorney general, Lawrence Wasden, is the longest serving attorney general in Idaho's history.

Endorsements

Tommy Ahlquist
U.S. Governors (current and former)
Republican National Committee members
Mayors
Individuals
Celebrities
Raúl Labrador
U.S. Senators
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Political Action Committees
  • Protect Freedom PAC [19]
Trade Associations
  • Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC) [25]
Organizations
  • Idaho Chooses Life [26]
  • Family Policy Alliance of Idaho [27]
Brad Little
U.S. Governors (current and former)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide elected officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tommy
Ahlquist		Raul
Labrador		Brad
Little		Lisa
Marie		Lawrence
Wasden*		OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates February 26 – March 15, 2018––21%25%17%––6%31%
Dan Jones & Associates November 8–15, 2017619± 3.9%14%17%21%4%4%5%36%
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) October 11–12, 2017714± 3.7%21%37%23%–––19%

*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Results

Results by county: Little 50-60% 40-50% 30-40% Labrador 40-50% 30-40% Ahlquist 40-50% 30-40% Idaho gubernatorial Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Brad Little 72,51837.3
Republican Raúl Labrador 63,46032.6
Republican Tommy Ahlquist 50,97726.2
Republican Lisa Marie3,3901.7
Republican Steve Pankey2,7011.4
Republican Harley Brown8740.4
Republican Dalton Cannady5280.3
Total votes194,448100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

A. J. Balukoff
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Statewide officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)
Local and municiapal officials (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations
Paulette Jordan
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Results by county: Jordan Jordan--80-90% Jordan--70-80% Jordan--60-70% Jordan--50-60% Jordan--40-50% Jordan/Balukoff tie Balukoff 50-60% 60-70% Idaho gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Paulette Jordan38,48358.4
Democratic A.J. Balukoff26,40340.1
Democratic Peter Dill9641.5
Total votes65,850100.0

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Adam Phillips [8]
  • Michael Richardson [4]
  • John Thomas Wiechec [8]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [78] Solid RAugust 7, 2017
The Washington Post [79] Safe ROctober 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [80] Solid ROctober 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [81] Solid RNovember 10, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball [82] Safe RNovember 14, 2017
RealClearPolitics [83] Safe ROctober 9, 2018
Daily Kos [84] Safe RJune 5, 2018
Fox News [85] [lower-alpha 1] Likely ROctober 9, 2018
Politico [86] Likely ROctober 9, 2018
Governing [87] Safe ROctober 2, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Brad
Little (R)		Paulette
Jordan (D)		Bev
Boeck (L)		OtherUndecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018838–55%39%3%2% [88] –
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) August 2–5, 2018826± 3.2%36%28%–5%31%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) July 12–15, 20181,061± 2.8%38%28%–7%26%
Dan Jones & Associates June 22 – July 9, 2018606± 4.0%43%31%5%8% [89] 13%

Results

Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Republican Brad Little 361,661 59.76% +6.25%
Democratic Paulette Jordan231,08138.19%-0.36%
Libertarian Bev "Angel" Boeck6,5511.08%-2.99%
Constitution Walter L. Bayes5,7870.96%-0.23%
Independent Lisa Marie (write-in)510.0%N/A
Total votes605,131100.0%N/A
Republican hold

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Russell, Betsy Z. (October 14, 2014). "Otter on running for 4th term: 'If I did, I'd be running as a bachelor, my wife told me'". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved July 7, 2016.
  2. ↑ Legislatures, National Conference of State. "2018 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  3. ↑ Dentzer, Kevin (February 28, 2017). "Ahlquist makes it official: In campaign for governor, he starts 97-town tour this week". Idaho Statesman . Retrieved March 1, 2017.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Russell, Betsy Z. (March 10, 2018). "Candidates flock to file for Idaho's May primary election". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved March 31, 2018.
  5. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (May 9, 2017). "Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador files to run for governor in 2018". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved January 11, 2018.
  6. ↑ Richert, Kevin (October 26, 2017). "Christy Perry considers run for Congress". Idaho Education News. Retrieved October 30, 2017.
  7. ↑ Dentzer, Bill (June 28, 2016). "Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved July 7, 2016.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 "Candidate Treasurer List with Mailing Addresses for 2018" (PDF). Idaho Secretary of State. December 21, 2017. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
  9. ↑ Berg, Sven (August 24, 2016). "Fulcher announces he'll run for governor again in 2018". Idaho Statesman. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  10. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (June 15, 2017). "Fulcher drops out of guv race, switches to 1st CD, winning Labrador's endorsement". The Spokesman-Review . Retrieved June 16, 2017.
  11. ↑ Spence, William L. (February 6, 2016). "Lori Otter says she doesn't plan to seek office". Lewiston Morning Tribune . Retrieved September 15, 2016.
  12. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. "Wasden to seek another term as Attorney General, not join crowds running for governor, Congress". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved 2017-09-08.
  13. ↑ Kruesi, Kimberlee (October 25, 2017). "Mitt Romney Endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho Governor". USNews.com. Retrieved 2017-11-03.
  14. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (September 19, 2017). "Ahlquist names Damond Watkins as campaign chairman". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
  15. ↑ "Meridian mayor named co-chairwoman for Ahlquist campaign". Meridian Press. September 19, 2017. Retrieved September 20, 2017.
  16. ↑ "Gubernatorial Candidate Dr. Tommy Ahlquist Announces Campaign County Chairs 107 Business, Community & Conservative Leaders Join Campaign Team - Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho". Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho. 2017-09-14. Retrieved 2017-09-19.
  17. 1 2 Betsy Z. Russell (April 30, 2018). "Ahlquist wins endorsement from prominent young Trump backers Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk". The Spokesman-Review .
  18. ↑ Price, Mike (September 26, 2017). "Olympic gold medalist visits Idaho Falls to campaign for Ahlquist". East Idaho News.
  19. 1 2 https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/idaho/articles/2017-11-01/labrador-attracts-endorsements-in-idahos-gubernatorial-race
  20. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (November 1, 2017). "Labrador announces Ted Cruz is endorsing him for governor of Idaho in '18". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved November 2, 2017.
  21. ↑ "Conservative Legislators Endorsement". Labrador for Governor. May 1, 2018.
  22. ↑ "Former Rep. Ken Andrus Backs Raul Labrador". Labrador for Governor. May 9, 2018.
  23. ↑ "Labrador wins variety of endorsements". Idaho Politics Weekly. May 6, 2018.
  24. ↑ "Labrador Releases Heller Endorsement and 200 Member Coalition". Labrador for Governor. April 20, 2018.
  25. ↑ "IPC-ABC Endorses Raul Labrador for Idaho Governor" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  26. ↑ "Idaho Chooses Life Endorses Labradorfor Governor". Labrador for Governor. April 26, 2018.
  27. ↑ "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of Idaho Endorses…". Family Policy Alliance of Idaho. May 10, 2018.
  28. ↑ "Otter Endorses Little in Idaho Governor's Race". U.S. News & World Report . Associated Press. May 16, 2017. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
  29. ↑ "Brad Little should be the next governor of Idaho". Idaho State Journal. April 24, 2018. Retrieved May 5, 2018.
  30. ↑ Brown, Nathan (August 25, 2017). "Little to run for governor". MagicValley.com. Retrieved November 27, 2017.
  31. ↑ "Twitter". twitter.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  32. 1 2 3 4 "State Finance Organization". Brad Little for Idaho. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
  33. ↑ Dentzer, Bill (June 29, 2016). "Little to run for governor". MagicValley.com. Retrieved November 27, 2017.
  34. 1 2 3 4 "Brad Little for Governor Campaign Announces Statewide 44 County Campaign Coordinators". Brad Little for Idaho (Press release). September 14, 2017. Retrieved November 27, 2017.
  35. ↑ "Primary election endorsements" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  36. 1 2 "Brad Little, A.J. Balukoff are best choices for governor" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  37. 1 2 side, Balukoff on Democratic. "Endorsements: Little, Balukoff in the primaries for governor" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  38. ↑ "Pragmatic and responsible, Brad Little is ready to lead Idaho". Idaho Statesman . October 21, 2018.
  39. ↑ "Idaho cattlemen endorse Little for governor". Capital Press. November 16, 2016.
  40. ↑ "Professional Fire Fighters of Idaho Announce Endorsement". Brad Little for Governor.
  41. ↑ "Idaho Associated General Contractors Announces its Endorsement". Brad Little for Governor.
  42. ↑ "Idaho's Logging Contractors Support Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor". Brad Little for Governor.
  43. ↑ "The Idaho State Dental Association Supports Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor". Brad Little for Governor.
  44. ↑ "IDAHO REALTORS ENDORSE BRAD LITTLE". Coeur d'Alene Press . April 19, 2018.
  45. ↑ "Idaho Grain Producers Put Their Support Behind Brad Little". Brad Little for Governor.
  46. ↑ "Idaho Doctors Put their Support Behind Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor". Brad Little for Governor.
  47. ↑ "Small Business PAC Endorses Little for Governor". NFIB. September 10, 2018.
  48. ↑ Kruesi, Kimberlee (November 2, 2017). "Idaho Democrat announces another run for governor". KTVB . Retrieved November 3, 2017.
  49. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (December 7, 2017). "Rep. Paulette Jordan announces she'll run for governor as a Democrat". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved December 8, 2017.
  50. ↑ Brown, Nathan (May 8, 2017). "Gov's race busy with more than a year till primary". Times-News . Retrieved September 1, 2017.
  51. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "The three most recent Democratic US Congressmen from Idaho have joined together to endorse AJ Balukoff - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 29, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  52. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  53. 1 2 3 "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  54. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  55. 1 2 3 "Senators Jordan and Ward-Engelking; Representative Chew Endorse A.J. Balukoff for Governor - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 12, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  56. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  57. 1 2 "Two More Idaho State Representatives Endorse A.J. Balukoff for Governor - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 15, 2018. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  58. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  59. ↑ "AJ Balukoff for Governor" (PDF). AJ Balukoff for Governor. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  60. ↑ https://www.facebook.com/ajbalukoffidaho/photos/a.416580208471599.1073741828.413953202067633/1494820993980843/?type=3 Burkett endosement]
  61. ↑ "AJ Balukoff for Governor" (PDF). AJ Balukoff for Governor. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  62. ↑ Russell, Betsy Z. (February 6, 2018). "Rusche endorses Balukoff over Jordan in Dems gubernatorial primary". The Spokesman Review . Retrieved February 22, 2018.
  63. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
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  71. 1 2 "Endorsements - AJ Balukoff for Governor" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  72. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  73. ↑ "A.J. Balukoff for Idaho". www.facebook.com. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  74. ↑ Locher, John (January 24, 2018). "Cher endorses Paulette Jordan for Idaho governor". Moscow-Pullman Daily News . Retrieved February 20, 2018.
  75. 1 2 "Who's With Paulette? - Jordan for Governor" . Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  76. ↑ Kruesi, Kimberley (March 15, 2018). "Democratic Governor Candidates Begin Collecting Endorsements". U.S. News & World Report . Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  77. ↑ "Paulette Jordan". Our Revolution. Retrieved May 22, 2018.
  78. ↑ "2018 Governor Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  79. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
  80. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  81. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  82. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2017-11-15.
  83. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
  84. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.
  85. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News .
  86. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
  87. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Retrieved 2018-07-18.
  88. ↑ Walter Bayes with 2%
  89. ↑ Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%
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