Arctic shipping routes

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Map of the Arctic region showing the bathymetry and the Northeast Passage, the Northern Sea Route within it, and the Northwest Passage. Map of the Arctic region showing the Northeast Passage, the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage, and bathymetry.png
Map of the Arctic region showing the bathymetry and the Northeast Passage, the Northern Sea Route within it, and the Northwest Passage.

Arctic shipping routes are the maritime paths used by vessels to navigate through parts or the entirety of the Arctic. There are three main routes that connect the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans: the Northeast Passage, the Northwest Passage, and the mostly unused Transpolar Sea Route. [2] In addition, two other significant routes exist: the Northern Sea Route, and the Arctic Bridge. [1] [2]

Contents

To connect the Atlantic with the Pacific, the Northwest Passage goes along the Northern Canadian and Alaskan coasts, the Northeast Passage (NEP) follows the Russian and Norwegian coasts, and the Transpolar Sea Route crosses the Arctic through the North Pole. [2]

The Arctic Bridge is an internal Arctic route linking Russia to Canada, and the Northern Sea Route (NSR) trails the Russian coast from the Bering Strait to the East, to the Kara Sea to the West. [2]

The main difference between the NSR and the NEP is that the latter comprises the Barents Sea and provides access to the port of Murmansk, the largest Russian Arctic port, and to the Atlantic. Given that the NSR constitutes the majority of the NEP, some sources use the terms NSR and NEP interchangeably. [3]

Current situation

The navigability of arctic sea routes depends primarily on the expanse of the floe, since it prevents naval traffic for a part of the year. The fluctuation of the area covered by sea ice determines the time windows during which ships can pass through.

Sea ice extent in March 2013 (left) and September 2013 (right), illustrating the respective monthly averages during the winter maximum and summer minimum extents. The magenta lines indicate the median ice extents in March and September, respectively, during the period 1981-2010. Arctic sea ice extent in 2013 - maximum and minimum ice extents.png
Sea ice extent in March 2013 (left) and September 2013 (right), illustrating the respective monthly averages during the winter maximum and summer minimum extents. The magenta lines indicate the median ice extents in March and September, respectively, during the period 1981–2010.

The NWP encounters thick multiyear ice, complex straits, and pingos that make navigation especially challenging. The eastern routes Northeast Passage and Northern Sea Route have experienced a higher level of activity compared to the Northwest Passage. [2] [3]

The NEP is relatively easier owing to lower overall ice extent and open water in the Barents Sea. Unlike similar latitudes in Alaska or in Canada, this area remains ice-free due to currents of warm water from the Gulf Stream, feeding into the North Atlantic. For both the NSR and NEP, in summer months the sea ice recedes more quickly compared to the NWP area. This characteristic has become more notable since the early 2000s due to successive low-records of ice age, thickness and extension. [3] Nonetheless, the NEP remains inaccessible for a large part of the year, since in the Laptev Sea and Kara Sea, through which the NEP passes, the minimum risk of non-passage over the whole year is respectively 17% and 15%. [4]

The Transpolar Sea Route remains a mostly unused route as ships going through it must traverse a permanent sea ice sheet, requiring advanced ice breaking capabilities. The TSR was only accessible 10 days in 2010, with icebreaker type vessels, and those 10 days were still considered as unsafe. [5]

Future projections

Various projections indicate that the ice floe will greatly diminish in the future, and might even disappear by the end of the century. The depletion of the arctic ice is already visible. On average over a year, the ice floe has diminished by 4.3% every ten years. However, this reduction is not uniform over the entire year. Indeed, if we observe only the month of September, the ice floe has diminished by 10.7% every ten years, compared to only 2.8% in March. Projection models of the evolution of the arctic ice floe are based on the last 30 years. These projections mainly use circulation models of ocean and atmospheric currents, such as NEMO, the OGCM and the CMIP. They also take into account the evolution of greenhouse gases, such as CO2. [5]

The NSR may be ice free by 2030, earlier than NWP or TSR. [6] Models predict that in that year 90% of the current area of ice will remain in winter, and only 60% in September. In 2060, they forecast that these numbers will decrease to 85% and 40% respectively. Finally, in 2090, they anticipate 85% in winter, and less than 10% in August–September. [7]

As a consequence of this reduction of the ice floe, the number of days of navigability on the NEP and NWP is increased, and routes such as the TSR, that are as of yet inaccessible to regular vessels, may open up. [8] The former are for now only open for a few days during the months of August and September, but certain projections indicate that in 2030 they will be open for a whole month. In 2060, the NEP will be open from August to October, and the NWP during August and September. Finally, in 2090, both passages will be open at least three months in a year. [7] Certain projections even say that the NEP will be accessible five months per year. [5]

However, all these projections remain uncertain since global warming is accelerating, and could have unexpected consequences on climatic conditions such as the perturbation of winds and ocean currents. [5]

Governance

The governance of the NEP has developed considerably in the late 20th century and early 21st century. The main sources of governance are the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the Arctic Council (AC), the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and the domestic legislation of the Arctic countries. In combination, they cover territorial claims, economic exploitation, technical shipping requirements, environmental protection, and search and rescue responsibilities. [3]

Economic viability of Arctic sea routes

Time efficiency

The commercial interest of the Arctic shipping routes lies in the shorter travel distances they offer between several economic poles, such as Northern Europe and East Asia. Indeed, passing through the Arctic, from Northern Europe to Shanghai for example, can reduce the distance covered by ships by up to 3000 nautical miles, compared to the same journey when passing through the Suez Canal. Nevertheless, not all journeys are improved since the voyage from Northern Europe to Vietnam, for example, results in an additional 1000 nautical miles covered. [9]

Furthermore, reduced distance does not always imply time gained as well. [10] A study by the Asian journal of shipping and logistics concludes that depending on the ice conditions in the Arctic, journeys from Northern Europe to East Asia may not save any time at all. Indeed, the overall time of the journey depends greatly on the time spent in ice-water which slows down ships considerably. As such, if the routes are open only 3 months in a year, which implies bad ice conditions, the aforementioned transit could result in a loss of 3 days compared to the one passing through the Suez canal. [9] However, if the routes are open all year round, which implies perfect ice conditions, the transit could result in a gain of up to 7 days. Another study even estimates that the time gained could reach up to 16 days. [11]

Economic assessment

The economic assessment of the Arctic routes is usually an interdisciplinary study that considers not only economic parameters, but also the influence of ice conditions and other environmental parameters, demand for goods and geopolitical factors. Currently researchers are trying to make the most comprehensive economic assessment of these routes. For example, Sibul and Jin proposed a methodology [10] [12] for estimating costs taking into account the influence of ice in accordance with the requirements of the Northern Sea Route Administration. [13] Later, these authors used the real weather and ice data to obtain the routes distribution for the Northern Sea Route depending on season and vessel's ice class. [8] [14]

Other factors

The economic viability of the Arctic routes does not only depend on their time efficiency; as a review commissioned by the UK government points out, there are many costs to be considered. Firstly, the review notes that Russia imposes tariffs on the NSR, the most used shipping route because of its favourable ice conditions, as opposed to Canada that imposes no tariffs on the use of the NWP, which, however, has worse ice conditions. The TSR can also be considered as an attractive prospect in the future, if the Arctic sea ice recedes considerably. [15]

Linked to these tariffs is the need for an icebreaker fleet to maintain routes and ports. Indeed, Russia does impose heavy fees for the use of the NSR, but it also maintains it, which is not without cost either. [15] [10]

Another important factor to consider is that high fuel prices make Arctic shipping more viable, and inversely so for low fuel prices. [10]

Finally, the lack of ports along the Arctic routes creates the need for special vessels, adapted to the ice conditions of the Arctic, with experienced crew. The lack of ports also means that container shipping is less attractive since vessels cannot exchange cargo along the way. [15] [10]

Limits of Arctic development

The development of arctic shipping routes has not gone uncontested, with concerns being raised about existing challenges that must be overcome. The UK Government Office for Science lists three causes of increased risk: [15]

  1. Extreme weather conditions that can cause harm to both ships and their crews, as well as a considerable danger caused by potential iceberg collisions. [8]
  2. A profound lack of infrastructure in the coastal regions around the main Arctic routes. Most notably lack of communication, insufficient mapping of the area and the remoteness from primary resources such as fuel and food are primordial concerns. [10]
  3. Increased chance of human error due to inexperience by the crew in handling under unconventional conditions.

Additionally, further technical and technological advancements are required to provide specialised vessels adapted to extreme weather conditions with high reliability and at a low cost. [15]

Intensifying the navigation along the Arctic routes also entails external policy issues. Interest shown in the last decades by major shipping companies has provoked a response of Arctic countries. A multitude of claims cause uncertainties relating to the legal status of some of the routes: it is still unknown if the NSR must be considered as internal waters, territorial waters or international straits. Most importantly, transiting ships will lose their right of innocent passage if parts of the NSR are claimed to be internal waters (see more under Arctic cooperation and politics). [16]

Another limit to Arctic shipping development is the effect it has on marine ecosystems as well as local communities. Increased shipping in the Arctic can not only raise risks in regards to travel, but also can put sea life and local ecosystems at risk. In addition, changing the shipping routes add complexity to the issue of emissions. The Arctic is a unique place for emission changes to occur, because unlike other places in the world, changes in the Arctic can have climate impacts that are global.

Finally, environmental policies in the Polar Code must be considered before the Arctic can become the new axis of intercontinental shipping. These restrictions are likely to become more strict as the market grows, to protect the existing nature and wildlife. [16]

Search and rescue

In 2011 the Arctic countries, organized through the Arctic Council, signed the first binding circumpolar treaty, the Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic. With it they officially established the areas of responsibility of each coastal country. [3]

Further reading

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kara Sea</span> Marginal sea of the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia between Novaya Zemlya and Severnaya Zemlya

The Kara Sea is a marginal sea, separated from the Barents Sea to the west by the Kara Strait and Novaya Zemlya, and from the Laptev Sea to the east by the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago. Ultimately the Kara, Barents and Laptev Seas are all extensions of the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Northwest Passage</span> Sea route north of North America

The Northwest Passage (NWP) is the sea lane between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans through the Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via waterways through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The eastern route along the Arctic coasts of Norway and Siberia is accordingly called the Northeast Passage (NEP). The various islands of the archipelago are separated from one another and from Mainland Canada by a series of Arctic waterways collectively known as the Northwest Passages, Northwestern Passages or the Canadian Internal Waters.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic</span> Polar region of the Earths northern hemisphere

The Arctic is a polar region located at the northernmost part of Earth. The Arctic region consists of the Arctic Ocean, adjacent seas, and parts of Canada, Danish Realm (Greenland), northern Finland, Iceland, northern Norway, Russia, northernmost Sweden and the United States (Alaska). Land within the Arctic region has seasonally varying snow and ice cover, with predominantly treeless permafrost under the tundra. Arctic seas contain seasonal sea ice in many places.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ringed seal</span> Species of carnivore

The ringed seal is an earless seal inhabiting the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. The ringed seal is a relatively small seal, rarely greater than 1.5 m in length, with a distinctive patterning of dark spots surrounded by light gray rings, hence its common name. It is the most abundant and wide-ranging ice seal in the Northern Hemisphere, ranging throughout the Arctic Ocean, into the Bering Sea and Okhotsk Sea as far south as the northern coast of Japan in the Pacific and throughout the North Atlantic coasts of Greenland and Scandinavia as far south as Newfoundland, and including two freshwater subspecies in northern Europe. Ringed seals are one of the primary prey of polar bears and killer whales, and have long been a component of the diet of indigenous people of the Arctic.

RV <i>Polarstern</i> German icebreaker and research vessel

RV Polarstern is a German research icebreaker of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany. Polarstern was built by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft in Kiel and Nobiskrug in Rendsburg, was commissioned in 1982, and is mainly used for research in the Arctic and Antarctica. The ship has a length of 118 metres and is a double-hulled icebreaker. She is operational at temperatures as low as −50 °C (−58 °F). Polarstern can break through ice 1.5 m thick at a speed of 5 knots. Thicker ice of up to 3 m (9.8 ft) can be broken by ramming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Northeast Passage</span> Shipping lane from the Kara Sea to the Pacific Ocean

The Northeast Passage is the shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, along the Arctic coasts of Norway and Russia. The western route through the islands of Canada is accordingly called the Northwest Passage (NWP).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Koch (boat)</span> Sailing ship of Russian origin used to explore the Arctic in the 15th and 16th centuries

The koch was a special type of small one- or two-mast wooden sailing ships designed and used in Russia for transpolar voyages in ice conditions of the Arctic seas, popular among the Pomors.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Icebreaker</span> Ship that is able to navigate through ice-covered waters

An icebreaker is a special-purpose ship or boat designed to move and navigate through ice-covered waters, and provide safe waterways for other boats and ships. Although the term usually refers to ice-breaking ships, it may also refer to smaller vessels, such as the icebreaking boats that were once used on the canals of the United Kingdom.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Northern Sea Route</span> Shipping route running along the Russian Arctic coast

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a shipping route about 5,600 kilometres (3,500 mi) long, defined by Russian legislation as running from the entrances to the Novaya Zemlya straits in the west, along the Russian Arctic coast above Siberia through the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea, and Chukchi Sea, to Cape_Dezhnyov on the Bering Strait, at parallel 66 ° N and meridian of 168 ° 58′37 ″ W.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Drift ice</span> Sea ice that is not attached to land

Drift ice, also called brash ice, is sea ice that is not attached to the shoreline or any other fixed object. Unlike fast ice, which is "fastened" to a fixed object, drift ice is carried along by winds and sea currents, hence its name. When drift ice is driven together into a large single mass, it is called pack ice. Wind and currents can pile up that ice to form ridges up to dozens of metres in thickness. These represent a challenge for icebreakers and offshore structures operating in cold oceans and seas.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ice class</span> Notation assigned to a ship denoting its sea ice navigational ability

Ice class refers to a notation assigned by a classification society or a national authority to denote the additional level of strengthening as well as other arrangements that enable a ship to navigate through sea ice. Some ice classes also have requirements for the ice-going performance of the vessel.

<i>Taymyr</i> (1909 icebreaker) Steam-powered icebreaker

The Taymyr was an icebreaking steamer of 1200 tons built for the Russian Imperial Navy at St. Petersburg in 1909. It was named after the Taymyr Peninsula.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic cooperation and politics</span> Between the eight Arctic nations

Arctic cooperation and politics are partially coordinated via the Arctic Council, composed of the eight Arctic nations: the United States, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Denmark with Greenland and the Faroe Islands. The dominant governmental power in Arctic policy resides within the executive offices, legislative bodies, and implementing agencies of the eight Arctic nations, and to a lesser extent other nations, such as United Kingdom, Germany, European Union and China. NGOs and academia play a large part in Arctic policy. Also important are intergovernmental bodies such as the United Nations and NATO.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement</span> International treaty

The Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement is an international treaty concluded among the member states of the Arctic Council — Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States — on 12 May 2011 in Nuuk, Greenland.

The Arctic Policy of China outlines China's approach to foreign relations with Arctic countries as well as its plans to develop infrastructure, extend military capabilities, conduct research, and excavate resources within the Arctic Circle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic sea ice decline</span> Sea ice loss observed in recent decades in the Arctic Ocean

Sea ice in the Arctic region has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. Global warming, caused by greenhouse gas forcing is responsible for the decline in Arctic sea ice. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty‐first century, with a decline rate of 4.7% per decade. It is also thought that summertime sea ice will cease to exist sometime during the 21st century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Transpolar Sea Route</span> Potential shipping route in the Arctic

The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) is a future Arctic shipping route running from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean across the center of the Arctic Ocean.

Pollution in the Arctic Ocean is primarily the result of economic activities carried out on land, which is sources from locally, regionally, and globally origins. There is also the inclusion of industrial development in the Arctic region, northern rivers, and the effects of military activities, particularly nuclear activity – as well as the influx of pollutants from other regions of the world.However, the Arctic Ocean remains relatively clean compared to other marine regions of the world.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic resources race</span> Competition over resources in the Arctic

The Arctic resources race is the competition between global entities for newly available natural resources of the Arctic. Under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea, five nations have the legal right to exploit the Arctic's natural resources within their exclusive economic zones: Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, and the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area</span> Nature reserve in Canada

Tuvaijuittuq Marine Protected Area is a marine protected area located off the northwest coast of Ellesmere Island in Nunavut, Canada. The goal of the marine protected area is to protect the rich biodiversity and dynamism of the High Arctic sea ice ecosystem. Covering an area of 319,411 square kilometres (123,325 sq mi), Tuvaijuittuq is the largest protected area in Canada and among the largest protected areas in the world. It is part of a large oceanic region referred to as the Last Ice Area, located adjacent to the coasts of northern Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, which contain and accumulate the oldest remaining sea ice in the Arctic.

References

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  4. ↑ Pastusiak, Tadeusz (2016-01-01). "The Time Window for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening On the Northern Sea Route". Annual of Navigation. 23 (1): 103–120. doi: 10.1515/aon-2016-0007 . ISSN   2300-6633.
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  6. ↑ Dams, Ties; van Schaik, Louise; Stoetman, Adája (2020). Presence before power: why China became a near-Arctic state (Report). Clingendael Institute. pp. 6–19. JSTOR   resrep24677.5 .
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  8. 1 2 3 Sibul, Gleb; Yang, Peihao; Muravev, Dmitri; Jin, Jian Gang; Kong, Linghe (2022-04-14). "Revealing the true navigability of the Northern Sea Route from ice conditions and weather observations". Maritime Policy & Management: 1–17. doi:10.1080/03088839.2022.2059717. ISSN   0308-8839. S2CID   248211083.
  9. 1 2 Lee, Sung-Woo; Song, Ju-Mi (December 2014). "Economic Possibilities of Shipping though Northern Sea Route1". The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics. 30 (3): 415–430. doi: 10.1016/j.ajsl.2014.12.009 . ISSN   2092-5212.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sibul, Gleb; Jin, Jian Gang (2021-05-01). "Evaluating the feasibility of combined use of the Northern Sea Route and the Suez Canal Route considering ice parameters". Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 147: 350–369. doi:10.1016/j.tra.2021.03.024. ISSN   0965-8564. S2CID   233567189.
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  12. ↑ THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE COST CALCULATION [EN/RUS/CH] , retrieved 2022-07-28
  13. ↑ "Rules of navigation in the water area of the Northern Sea Route". www.nsra.ru. Retrieved 2022-07-28.
  14. ↑ THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE NAVIGABILITY [EN/RUS/CH] , retrieved 2022-07-28
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