Arctic cooperation and politics

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Arctic Population Map. Arctic Population Map.jpg
Arctic Population Map.

Arctic cooperation and politics are partially coordinated via the Arctic Council, composed of the eight Arctic states: the United States, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Denmark with Greenland and the Faroe Islands. [1] The dominant governmental power in Arctic policy resides within the executive offices, legislative bodies, and implementing agencies of the eight Arctic countries, and to a lesser extent other countries, such as United Kingdom, Germany, European Union and China. NGOs and academia play a large part in Arctic policy. Also important are intergovernmental bodies such as the United Nations (especially as relates to the Law of the Sea Treaty) and NATO.

Contents

Though Arctic policy priorities differ, every Arctic state is concerned about sovereignty and defense, resource development, shipping routes, and environmental protection. Though several boundary and resource disputes in the Arctic remain unsolved, there is remarkable conformity of stated policy directives among Arctic states and a broad consensus toward peace and cooperation in the region. [2] [1] Obstacles that remain include United States non-ratification of the UNCLOS and the harmonizing of all UNCLOS territorial claims (most notably extended continental shelf claims along the Lomonosov Ridge); the dispute over the Northwest Passage; and securing agreements on regulations regarding shipping, tourism, and resource development in Arctic waters.

The Arctic Council membership includes the eight Arctic countries and organizations representing six indigenous populations. [1] It operates on consensus basis, mostly dealing with environmental treaties and not addressing boundary or resource disputes. (Although the Arctic Search and Rescue Agreement was signed in May 2011, the council's first binding document). A more robust Arctic Council with decision-making power on pan-Arctic resource and other issues has been proposed.

Circum-Arctic cooperative organizations

Arctic Council

Aurora Borealis -- Frederic Church, 1865. Aurora-borealis church 1865.jpg
Aurora Borealis -- Frederic Church, 1865.

Members include the eight Arctic countries: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and United States. Permanent participants are these six indigenous groups:

Arctic Council working groups:

In Tromsø, Norway on April 29, 2009, Arctic Council ministers approved a task force to create an international Search & Rescue (SAR) instrument for the Arctic by the next meeting in 2011. [3] [1] In Nuuk, Greenland on May 12, 2011, ministers signed a Search & Rescue agreement, the Arctic Council's first law-bound treaty.

At the Arctic Council ministerial meeting on April 24, 2015, a Task Force on Arctic Marine Cooperation was created to consider future needs for cooperation on Arctic marine issues. [4]

Conference of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region

Conference of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region (CPAR) is a parliamentary body comprising delegations appointed by the national parliaments of the Arctic states (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States) and the European Parliament. The conference also includes Indigenous peoples groups as Permanent Participants, and observers. The conference meets every two years, last in Oslo June 7, 2010. Between conferences the Arctic parliamentary cooperation is carried on by a Standing Committee of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region, which started its activities in 1994.

The five Arctic Ocean coastal states

Foreign ministers of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states (Russia, US, Canada, Norway, and Denmark (Greenland)) met:

International Maritime Organization

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) was established in 1948 to develop and maintain a comprehensive regulatory framework for shipping. [1] The IMO spent years negotiating an Arctic Code for shipping, but for many years, the Code was only set of voluntary Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered Waters (adopted in 2002). The Guidelines provide uniform safety, pollution prevention, and security standards for ocean carriers. [5] However, on 1 January 2017, the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters entered into force and is mandatory for all ships in Arctic waters over 500 tonnes. [6] [7]

The World Winter Cities Association for Mayors

The World Winter Cities Association for Mayors (WWCAM) is a network of international winter cities that convene to discuss winter technologies, experiences, and implications for city planning under the guiding philosophy of “Winter is a Resource and an Asset”. The Association, formerly known as the Northern Intercity Conference of Mayors, was founded in 1981 by the city of Sapporo, Japan. As of April 2012, 19 cities from 9 countries participate as members. The seventeenth conference is scheduled for Sapporo in 2016.

Regional Arctic cooperative organizations

Nordic Council

The Nordic Council is the Nordic inter-parliamentary body, while the Nordic Council of Ministers is the inter-governmental body. Members include: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the autonomous territories of Åland Islands (Finland), Faroe Islands (Denmark) and Greenland (Denmark).

Barents Euro-Arctic Council

Barents Euro-Arctic Council (BEAC) is the forum for intergovernmental cooperation in the Barents Region established in 1993 to "provide impetus to existing cooperation and consider new initiatives and proposals". [8] Members include: Russia, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Sweden and Commission of European Communities.

Pacific Northwest Economic Region: Arctic Caucus

The Pacific Northwest Economic Region (PNWER) Arctic Caucus formed informally in November 2010 as a loose alliance between Alaska and the Canadian Territories of Northwest Territories and the Yukon. Members include legislators, government officials, business and nonprofit leaders. The Caucus met in December 2010 in Barrow, Alaska; in Portland, Oregon in July 2011; and in Yellowknife, Northwest Territories in August 2011. [9]

Northern Forum

The Northern Forum is a non-profit, international organization composed of sub-national or regional governments from eight northern countries. The Forum's mission is to improve the quality of life of Northern peoples by using leadership networking to tackle common problems; and to support sustainable development and cooperative socio-economic initiatives. [10]

Youth Arctic Coalition

The Youth Arctic Coalition is a non-profit, international, youth organization that was created to bridge the gap between youth living in all parts of the Arctic. The YAC has membership in the eight Arctic states, and is supported by youth, organizations, and governments from around the world. In 2014, the YAC hosted its inaugural conference in Ottawa, which brought together over 200 youth from across the Arctic. [11]

Arctic policies of select countries

United States of America (Alaska)

Main goals in U.S. Arctic Policy are: National security; Protecting the Arctic environment and wildlife; Ensuring economic development is environmentally sustainable; Strengthening cooperative institutions among the eight Arctic countries; Including the Arctic's indigenous communities in decisions; and Improving scientific monitoring and research. [12]

On January 9, 2009, President Bush signed National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD)-66 on Arctic Region Policy, [13] a collaborative effort replacing the Clinton era Arctic policy directive. NSPD-66 is currently the active Arctic policy playbook being pursued by the Obama Administration and its Departments.

The U.S. Arctic Policy Group is a federal interagency working group comprising those agencies with programs and/or involvement in research and monitoring, land and natural resources management, environmental protection, human health, transportation and policy making in the Arctic. The APG is chaired by the U.S. Department of State and meets monthly to develop and implement U.S. programs and policies in the Arctic, including those relevant to the activities of the Arctic Council.

State Department's Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs (OPA) is a part of the State Department's Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (OES). OPA is responsible for formulating and implementing U.S. policy on international issues concerning the oceans, the Arctic, and Antarctica.

Canada (NWT, Nunavut, and Yukon)

Canada has more Arctic land mass than any country. On August 23, 2010, Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper said protection of Canada's sovereignty over its northern regions was its number one and "non-negotiable priority" in Arctic policy. [14] Canada has slated $109 million, to be spent before 2014, for research to substantiate extended continental shelf claims. [5] Canada's Arctic policy priorities are: to try to resolve boundary issues; to secure international recognition for the full extent of Canada's extended continental shelf; and to address Arctic governance and related emerging issues, such as public safety.

G-7 finance ministers met in Nunavut in February 2010.

Iceland

Denmark (Greenland, Faroe Islands)

Norway

The Norwegian Polar Institute in Tromsø is hosting the Arctic Council Secretariat from 2007 to 2013.

Sweden

Finland

The Finnish Arctic Strategy was released June 4, 2010 and concentrates on seven priority areas: security, environment, economy, infrastructure, arctic indigenous residents, institutions, and the European Union. [15]

Russia

In 2007, Russia planted a flag on the Arctic Ocean seafloor beneath the North Pole while performing research to substantiate its claim to an extended continental shelf. The flag planting was perceived erroneously to be a land claim—a claim Canada and other Arctic countries rebuked even though the Russian Government clearly stated that no such claim was made. In 2009, a Russian government policy document cited western reports of a potential for military conflict over Arctic resources.[ citation needed ] Despite having lost 18 percent of its population between 1989 and 2002, the Russian Arctic comprises 25% of Russia's landmass and still contains 80 percent of the four million people who inhabit the planet's Arctic region. [5] Russia's current Arctic policy is contained in the document "Basics of Russian Federation State Policy for the Arctic Through 2020 and Beyond" signed on 18 September 2008 by Russian President (now Prime Minister) Medvedev. [16] This policy document addresses various issues tied to the protection and development of the land and offshore waters of Russia's Arctic sector.

European Union

If accession of Iceland to the European Union occurs, the EU will increase its Arctic influence and possibly gain permanent observer status in the Arctic Council. The Northern Dimension of European Union policy, established in the late 1990s, intended to deal with issues concerning western Russia, as well as to increase general cooperation among the EU, Iceland and Norway. It has since become a multilateral, equal partnership among the EU, Iceland, Norway and Russia. Canada and the United States are observers to the partnership. Three Nordic Council members have joined the EU (Denmark in 1973 and Sweden & Finland in 1995). The European Union's application to become a “permanent observer” in the Arctic Council was blocked in 2009 by Canada in response to the EU's ban on the importation of seal products. [5]

China

China's ice capable research vessel, Xuě Lóng, sailed the Northwest Passage in August 2012. China is interested in Arctic resources and shipping routes; and attained permanent observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013. [1]

South Korea

South Korea has an icebreaker and is building another. The country is investing in LNG infrastructure near Inuvik, where LNG will be shipped from the Beaufort Sea and south through the Bering Strait.

Other Arctic treaties and agreements

Iceberg between Lango and Sanderson Hope, south of Upernavik, Greenland. Iceberg with hole near Sandersons Hope 2007-07-28 2.jpg
Iceberg between Langø and Sanderson Hope, south of Upernavik, Greenland.

Other treaties governing all or part of the Arctic region:

Territorial claims

According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), coastal states have sovereign rights to resources in the water and seabed within a 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). However, Article 76 of the Convention allows coastal states to extend their sovereign rights up to 350 nautical miles from their coastline if they can prove that the Arctic seafloor's underwater ridges are an extension of the country's own continental shelf. [5] Governments have ten years following their ratification of UNCLOS within which to submit their claims to extended continental shelves.

In 2001 Russia was the first Arctic littoral state to submit its claim. The UN Commission on the Continental Shelf requested a revised claim with more scientific data supporting their claim, and Russia planned to file additional data in 2013. [17]

Ice Dwellers Watching the Invaders -- William Bradford, 1875. Ice-dwellerswatchingtheinvaders1875 William Bradford.jpg
Ice Dwellers Watching the Invaders -- William Bradford, 1875.

Denmark and Canada dispute ownership of Hans Island in the Nares Strait between Ellesmere Island and Greenland.

On April 27, 2010, Norway and Russia announced an end to their 40-year arctic demarcation dispute in the Barents Sea. Future joint energy development is expected.[ citation needed ]

Maritime boundaries between Canada and the United States in the Beaufort Sea and between Canada and Denmark in Baffin Bay remain under dispute. [2]

Denmark (Greenland), Russia and Canada may have competing extended continental shelf claims over the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater mountain chain crossing the central Arctic basin. [5]

Shipping and transport

Global warming has had a greater impact on summer sea ice in the Arctic than previously estimated. Based on the recent studies, the Arctic will be largely ice-free during the summer sometime between 2020 and 2050. One 2011 Cambridge University study predicted that the Arctic would be free of summer ice by 2015. [18] No models predict that the winter sea ice will disappear during this century. [19]

An ice-free Arctic has major strategic and economic ramifications for global shipping, as vessels will potentially be able to traverse the Arctic Ocean. Trans-Arctic shipping routes could shorten distances between northern Europe and northern China by up to 4,000 nautical miles and reduce shipping times by up to two weeks. [20] [1]

All cargo ships in Arctic waters over 500 tonnes are subject to the mandatory requirements for safety and protection of the environment under the Polar Code. [6]

Arctic natural resources

Fisheries

Key Arctic fishery regimes include:

Cooperative Arctic research

International Polar Year

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Norwegian Sea</span> Marginal sea of the Arctic or Atlantic Ocean, northwest of Norway

The Norwegian Sea is a marginal sea, grouped with either the Atlantic Ocean or the Arctic Ocean, northwest of Norway between the North Sea and the Greenland Sea, adjoining the Barents Sea to the northeast. In the southwest, it is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by a submarine ridge running between Iceland and the Faroe Islands. To the north, the Jan Mayen Ridge separates it from the Greenland Sea.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic</span> Polar region of the Earths northern hemisphere

The Arctic is a polar region located at the northernmost part of Earth. The Arctic region, from the IERS Reference Meridian travelling east, consists of parts of northern Norway, northernmost Sweden, northern Finland, Russia, the United States (Alaska), Canada, Danish Realm (Greenland), and northern Iceland, along with the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas. Land within the Arctic region has seasonally varying snow and ice cover, with predominantly treeless permafrost under the tundra. Arctic seas contain seasonal sea ice in many places.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lomonosov Ridge</span> Underwater ridge of continental crust in the Arctic Ocean

The Lomonosov Ridge is an unusual underwater ridge of continental crust in the Arctic Ocean. It spans 1,800 kilometres (1,100 mi) between the New Siberian Islands over the central part of the ocean to Ellesmere Island of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The ridge divides the Arctic Basin into the Eurasian Basin and the Amerasian Basin. The width of the Lomonosov Ridge varies from 60 to 200 kilometres. It rises 3,300 to 3,700 metres above the 4,200-metre (13,800 ft) deep seabed. The minimum depth of the ocean above the ridge is less than 400 metres (1,300 ft). Slopes of the ridge are relatively steep, broken up by canyons, and covered with layers of silt. It is an aseismic ridge.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic Council</span> Intergovernmental forum for the Arctic

The Arctic Council is a high-level intergovernmental forum that addresses issues faced by the Arctic governments and the indigenous people of the Arcticregion. At present, eight countries exercise sovereignty over the lands within the Arctic Circle, and these constitute the member states of the council: Canada; Denmark; Finland; Iceland; Norway; Russia; Sweden; and the United States. Other countries or national groups can be admitted as observer states, while organizations representing the concerns of indigenous peoples can be admitted as indigenous permanent participants.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Territorial claims in the Arctic</span>

The Arctic consists of land, internal waters, territorial seas, exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and international waters above the Arctic Circle. All land, internal waters, territorial seas and EEZs in the Arctic are under the jurisdiction of one of the eight Arctic coastal states: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. International law regulates this area as with other portions of Earth.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arktika 2007</span> Russian expedition involving a crewed descent to the ocean bottom at the North Pole

Arktika 2007 was a 2007 expedition in which Russia performed the first ever crewed descent to the ocean bottom at the North Pole, as part of research related to the 2001 Russian territorial claim, one of many territorial claims in the Arctic, made possible, in part, because of Arctic shrinkage. As well as dropping a titanium tube containing the Russian flag, the submersibles collected specimens of Arctic flora and fauna and apparently recorded video of the dives. The "North Pole-35" manned drifting ice station was established.

The Ilulissat Declaration is a document signifying necessary joint regional efforts and responsibilities in response to the potentially adverse effects of climate change with regard to the melting Arctic ice pack.

The inaugural Arctic Ocean Conference was held in Ilulissat (Greenland) on 27-29 May 2008. Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States discussed key issues relating to the Arctic Ocean. The meeting was significant because of its plans for environmental regulation, maritime security, mineral exploration, polar oil oversight, and transportation. Before the conclusion of the conference, the attendees announced the Ilulissat Declaration.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic Ocean</span> Ocean in the north polar region

The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world's five oceanic divisions. It spans an area of approximately 14,060,000 km2 (5,430,000 sq mi) and is the coldest of the world's oceans. The International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) recognizes it as an ocean, although some oceanographers call it the Arctic Mediterranean Sea. It has also been described as an estuary of the Atlantic Ocean. It is also seen as the northernmost part of the all-encompassing world ocean.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nordic countries</span> Geographical and cultural region

The Nordic countries are a geographical and cultural region in Northern Europe and the North Atlantic. It includes the sovereign states of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden; the autonomous territories of the Faroe Islands and Greenland; and the autonomous region of Åland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic policy of the United States</span>

The Arctic policy of the United States is the foreign policy of the United States in regard to the Arctic region. In addition, the United States' domestic policy toward Alaska is part of its Arctic policy.

The Arctic policy of Canada includes both the foreign policy of Canada in regard to the Arctic region and Canada's domestic policy towards its Arctic territories. This includes the devolution of powers to the territories. Canada's Arctic policy includes the plans and provisions of these regional governments. It encompasses the exercise of sovereignty, social and economic development, the protection of the environment, and the improving and devolving of governance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic policy of Russia</span> Russia and the Arctic

The Arctic policy of Russia is the domestic and foreign policy of the Russian Federation with respect to the Russian region of the Arctic. The Russian region of the Arctic is defined in the "Russian Arctic Policy" as all Russian possessions located north of the Arctic Circle. Approximately one-fifth of Russia's landmass is north of the Arctic Circle. Russia is one of five littoral states bordering the Arctic Ocean. As of 2010, out of 4 million inhabitants of the Arctic, roughly 2 million lived in arctic Russia, making it the largest arctic country by population. However, in recent years Russia's Arctic population has been declining at an excessive rate.

Arctic Policy of Norway is Norway's foreign relations with other Arctic countries, and Norway's government policies on issues occurring within the geographic boundaries of "the Arctic" or related to the Arctic or its people. Since Norway is itself an Arctic nation, the Arctic Policy of Norway includes its domestic policies as regards the Norwegian Arctic region.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic policy of the Kingdom of Denmark</span> Danish foreign policy

The Arctic Policy of the Kingdom of Denmark defines the Kingdom's foreign relations and policies with other Arctic countries, and the Kingdom's strategy for the Arctic on issues occurring within the geographic boundaries of "the Arctic" or related to the Arctic or its peoples. In order to clearly understand the Danish geopolitical importance of the Arctic, it is necessary to mention Denmark's territorial claims in areas beyond its exclusive EEZ in areas around the Faroe Islands and north of Greenland covering parts of the North Pole, which is also claimed by Russia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic resources race</span> Competition over resources in the Arctic

The Arctic resources race is the competition between global entities for newly available natural resources of the Arctic. Under the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea, five nations have the legal right to exploit the Arctic's natural resources within their exclusive economic zones: Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, and the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geopolitics of the Arctic</span> Area study of geopolitics on the Arctic region

Arctic geopolitics is the area study of geopolitics on the Arctic region. The study of geopolitics deals with the "inalienable relationship between geography and politics", as it investigates the effects of the Earth's geography on politics and international relations. Arctic geopolitics focuses on the inter-state relations in the Arctic, which is the northernmost polar region. It is composed of the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas, and is home to around four million people. The states in or bordering the Arctic are commonly referred to as the Arctic Eight, and are the United States, Canada, Russia, Finland, the Kingdom of Denmark (Greenland), Norway, Iceland and Sweden.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Iceland Sea</span> Small body of water in the North Atlantic

The Iceland Sea, a relatively small body of water, is bounded by Iceland. It is characterized by its proximity to the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, which transforms into the Kolbeinsey Ridge, and the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and it lies just south of the Arctic Circle. This region is typically delineated by Greenland to the west, the Denmark Strait, and the continental shelf break south of Iceland to the south. Next in the boundary line are Jan Mayen, being a small Norwegian volcanic island, and the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone to the north, with the Jan Mayen Ridge to the east of the sea. This ridge serves as the northern boundary of the Iceland Sea, acting as the dividing line from the Greenland Sea. To the immediate south of Jan Mayen, the Iceland-Jan Mayen Ridge stretches towards the Iceland-Faroe Ridge, creating a boundary between the Iceland Sea and the Norwegian Sea to the east.

The Barents Sea is a secluded part of the Arctic Ocean divided between Norway and Russia. The politics in the Barents Sea is of paramount importance for the 2 countries relationship, showing both maritime conflict and maritime cooperation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic Five</span> Coastal states of Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Five are the five littoral states bordering the Arctic Ocean: Canada, The Kingdom of Denmark, Norway, The Russia Federation and the United States of America.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Buixadé Farré, Albert; Stephenson, Scott R.; Chen, Linling; Czub, Michael; Dai, Ying; Demchev, Denis; Efimov, Yaroslav; Graczyk, Piotr; Grythe, Henrik; Keil, Kathrin; Kivekäs, Niku; Kumar, Naresh; Liu, Nengye; Matelenok, Igor; Myksvoll, Mari; O'Leary, Derek; Olsen, Julia; Pavithran .A.P., Sachin; Petersen, Edward; Raspotnik, Andreas; Ryzhov, Ivan; Solski, Jan; Suo, Lingling; Troein, Caroline; Valeeva, Vilena; van Rijckevorsel, Jaap; Wighting, Jonathan (October 16, 2014). "Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage: Routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure". Polar Geography . 37 (4): 298–324. Bibcode:2014PolGe..37..298B. doi: 10.1080/1088937X.2014.965769 .
  2. 1 2 Lawson W.Brigham (2010). "The Arctic". Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 22 August 2010.
  3. 1 2 Polar Law Textbook
  4. ↑ Arctic Council Task Force on Arctic Marine Cooperation
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 U.S. Strategic Interests in the Arctic
  6. 1 2 "Shipping in polar waters". IMO. Retrieved 2 August 2021.
  7. ↑ "The Polar Code, One Year On". The Maritime Executive. Retrieved 2 August 2021.
  8. ↑ Archived 2019-11-08 at the Wayback Machine Barents Euro-Arctic Council
  9. ↑ "Arctic Caucus". Archived from the original on 2011-07-23. Retrieved 2010-09-10. PNWER: Arctic Caucus
  10. ↑ "The Northern Forum - The Northern Forum". www.northernforum.org. Retrieved 4 January 2019.
  11. ↑ youtharcticcoalition.org http://www.youtharcticcoalition.org.{{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  12. ↑ US Arctic Policy
  13. ↑ US Arctic Region Policy Presidential Directive
  14. ↑ "Arctic sovereignty 'Non-Negotiable': Canada's PM". Archived from the original on 2010-12-31. Retrieved 2010-08-24. Arctic Sovereignty "Non-Negotiable" -- Canada's PM
  15. ↑ Finland’s Strategy for the Arctic Region
  16. ↑ "ARCTIS - Russian Federation Policy for the Arctic to 2020". www.arctis-search.com. Retrieved 4 January 2019.
  17. ↑ "Ocean arctique russia on track for new arctic bid in 2013 05 10 10Realpolitik.tv > la géopolitique sur le net". Archived from the original on 2011-07-08. Retrieved 2010-10-09. Russia To File For Extended Continental Shelf in 2013
  18. ↑ Ice-free Summers in Arctic Ocean by 2015
  19. ↑ Ice-free Summers in Arctic Ocean by 2060
  20. ↑ Huebert, Rob; Exner-Pirot, Heather (May 2012), Climate Change & International Security: The Arctic as a Bellwether (PDF), Arlington, Virginia: Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-11-06, retrieved 2012-06-11
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