Belfast South contained some of Belfast's most expensive residential districts as well as Queen's University Belfast. The overall tenor of the constituency is middle-class – young, trendy and cosmopolitan towards the city centre, with Northern Ireland's biggest concentrations of both students and ethnic minorities, and further out from the city centre it is settled and prosperous. Despite this, significant pockets of inner-city working class areas such as the Markets and a number of isolated suburban estates exist in the constituency.
There had been particularly rapid demographic change in Belfast South from around the year 2000. The 2011 census revealed that Belfast South consisted of a slightly larger Catholic population than Protestant and while the constituency traditionally has had a unionist majority, the nationalist vote surpassed this in more recent elections. There have also been strong votes for other parties such as the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, Green Party, the Conservatives and the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition. The constituency has witnessed a steady series of candidates backed by groups who aspire to support the British Labour Party despite its prior ban on membership and organisation in Northern Ireland, though their results have been minimal. Until the 1990s the main focus of attention had been on contests between unionist candidates.
The subsequent by-election garnered much interest as it was expected that the Democratic Unionist Party would take the seat, building on their steady rise which had seen them gain both Belfast North and Belfast East at the previous general election. However, the DUP came third, behind the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, and the UUP's candidate Martin Smyth won the seat, holding it until 2005. The by-election was extremely significant at the time in that it was the first at which the DUP tide ebbed.
In January 2005 Smyth announced that he would retire at the 2005 general election, raising speculation both as to whom the Ulster Unionists would field in succession to him and what effect a different candidate would have upon their share of the vote. The UUP selected Assembly member Michael McGimpsey, albeit with a highly controversial and bitter selection. McGimpsey was repudiated by many prominent Unionists, including both Smyth and former UUP leader James Molyneaux. The DUP selected Jimmy Spratt and offered an electoral pact to the UUP that would give each party a free run at one out of South Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone. This offer was rejected by the UUP.
In the event, the DUP and UUP both fielded candidates which split the vote. The nationalist vote mainly went for the SDLP over Sinn Féin, with the result that the SDLP took the seat despite a majority of votes cast for unionist candidates.[1]
In the 2010 general election, Sinn Féin opted not to stand against the SDLP to avoid splitting the nationalist vote.[2] The SDLP won the seat with a majority of 6,000. This was the seat in which the Alliance Party had their second-best showing, polling 15% of the votes. Alasdair McDonnell retained the seat in May 2015, with only 24.5% of the vote, as Sinn Féin opted to stand. This is the smallest proportion of the vote a winning candidate has ever achieved in a UK general election.[3]
In the 2017 general election the seat was won by Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP[4] with Alasdair McDonnell losing his seat along with all other SDLP MPs in Northern Ireland.[5] This was won back for the SDLP by Claire Hanna in 2019, with Sinn Féin again opting not to stand.[6] This was the first time since 1987 that the winning candidate in the constituency had a majority of the vote.
The city boundaries were expanded under the Belfast Corporation Act 1896.[7] Under the Redistribution of Seats (Ireland) Act 1918, the parliamentary borough was extended to include the whole city and the number of divisions increased from 4 to 9. The Cromac and Ormeau divisions largely replaced the South division.[8][9] These boundaries were in effect at the 1918 general election.
Cromac Ward (except so much as is comprised in the East division),
St. George's Ward (except so much as is comprised in West division),
and in the parish of Shankill, County of Antrim, the Townland of Malone Lower, and so much of the Townland of Malone Upper as is included in the parliamentary borough.[10]
1922–1950
The divisions of Cromac (Cromac and Windsor wards) and Ormeau (Ormeau ward)[11]
1950–1974
In the county borough of Belfast, the wards of Cromac, Ormeau and Windsor.[12]
1974–1983
In the county borough of Belfast, the wards of Cromac, Ormeau and Windsor;
In the rural district of Lisburn, the electoral divisions of Ardmore, Dunmurry, Finaghy, and Upper Malone; and
in the rural district of Hillsborough, the electoral divisions of Breda and Edenderry.[13]
1983–1997
In Belfast, the wards of Ballynafeigh, Cromac, Donegall, Finaghy, Malone, Ormeau, Rosetta, St George's, Stranmillis, university, Upper Malone, Willowfield, and Windsor.[14]
1997–2010
In Belfast, the wards of Ballynafeigh, Blackstaff, Botanic, Finaghy, Malone, Musgrave, Ravenhill, Rosetta, Shaftesbury, Stranmillis, Upper Malone, Windsor and Woodstock,
and in Castlereagh, the wards of Beechill, Cairnshill, Galwally, Knockbracken, Minnowburn and Newtownbreda.[15]
2010–2024
In Belfast, the wards of Ballynafeigh, Blackstaff, Botanic, Finaghy, Malone, Musgrave, Ravenhill, Rosetta, Shaftesbury, Stranmillis, Upper Malone, Windsor and Woodstock
and in Castlereagh, the wards of Beechill, Cairnshill, Carryduff East, Carryduff West, Galwally, Hillfoot, Knockbracken, Minnowburn, Newtownbreda and Wynchurch.[16]
This seat saw the largest SDLP vote share and the largest increase in vote share for the party at the 2019 general election. This came as Sinn Féin did not contest the seat. It also saw the only fall in vote share for Alliance.[22]
Note: The by-election was caused by the decision of all Unionist MPs to resign their seats and seek re-election on a platform of opposition to the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
↑ Uberoi, Elise; Baker, Carl; Cracknell, Richard (19 December 2019). General Election 2019: results and analysis(PDF) (Report). House of Commons Library. Archived(PDF) from the original on 26 January 2020. Retrieved 5 January 2020.
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