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Emerging and growth-leading economies (EAGLEs) are a grouping of key emerging markets developed by BBVA Research. The EAGLE economies are expected to lead global growth in the next 10 years, and to provide important opportunities for investors.
EAGLEs is a grouping acronym created in 2010 by BBVA Research to identify all emerging economies whose contribution to world economic growth in the next ten years is expected to be larger than the average of the G6 economies (G7 excluding the U.S.). This is a dynamic concept where country members can change over time according to their forecasted performance relative to developed economies. The membership of the EAGLEs is subjected to a yearly revision and can change according to their forecasted economic performances relative to developed economies.
| EAGLEs members | 2011 [1] | 2012 [2] | 2013 [3] | 2014 [4] | 2015 [5] | 2016 [6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bangladesh |  | | ||||
 Brazil | | | | | | |
 People's Republic of China | | | | | | |
 Egypt | | | ||||
 India | | | | | | |
 Indonesia | | | | | | |
 Iran | | |||||
 Malaysia | | |||||
 Mexico | | | | | | |
 Nigeria | | | ||||
 Pakistan | | | ||||
 Philippines | | | ||||
 Russia | | | | | | |
 Turkey | | | | | | |
 Vietnam | |
| EAGLEs members | 2011 [1] | 2012 [2] | 2013 [3] | 2014 [4] | 2015 [5] | 2016 [6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iraq | | |||||
 South Korea | | | | | ||
 Saudi Arabia | | |||||
 Republic of China (Taiwan) | | | | | ||
 Thailand | |
As world economic growth rotates from developed to developing countries, there has been increasing interest in identifying emerging markets that will become global leaders, as well as increasing the lobbying of some countries to be included in the BRIC definition. However, many economists have argued that the BRIC concept (Brazil, Russia, India and China) is outdated and have proposed alternative definitions. The EAGLEs concept is similar to other proposals in going beyond BRICs (such as the CIVETS, Next Eleven or 7 percent club) but its methodology differs from others' in several ways:
Over the years there have been several attempts to try to implement the economic concept that will best reflect the potential of emerging markets in the coming years. After BRIC concept was coined by Goldman Sachs in 2001, there were other endeavors to find the best grouping acronym such as: CIVETS, Next Eleven, 7 per cent club and the EAGLEs.
In January 2011, Goldman Sachs decided to re-define its current definition of emerging markets and proposed a new term "Growth Markets". The separation of Growth Markets from Emerging Markets is aimed to show the world's most dynamic economies – those that are at least contributing 1 per cent to global growth (outside of the Developed World). In the first approach, eight economies have been identified and they were: BRIC economies plus Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia. This particular shift in terminology was initially proposed by BBVA Research (later followed by Goldman Sachs) with the aim of switching from the existing static concept to something more dynamic, that could better indicate market potential.
As part of the EAGLEs proposal, the EAGLEs' Nest is a second set of countries with expected Incremental GDP in the next decade to be lower than the average of the G6 economies (G7 excluding the U.S.) but higher than Italy's (G6 Minimum), the country which is anticipated to contribute least to global growth within the G7. The membership of the EAGLEs' Nest is subject to a yearly revision and can change according to forecasted economic performances.
| Nest members | 2011 [1] | 2012 [2] | 2013 [3] | 2014 [4] | 2015 [5] | 2016 [6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Algeria | | | ||||
 Argentina | | | | | | |
 Chile | | | | | | |
 Colombia | | | | | | |
 Ethiopia | | |||||
| Iraq | | | ||||
 Kazakhstan | | | | |||
 Libya | | |||||
 Morocco | | |||||
 Mozambique | | |||||
 Myanmar | | | ||||
 Peru | | | | | | |
 Poland | | | | | | |
 Romania | | |||||
| Saudi Arabia | | | ||||
 South Africa | | | | | | |
 Sri Lanka | | | ||||
| Thailand | | | | | | |
 United Arab Emirates | | | ||||
 Uzbekistan | |
| Nest members | 2011 [1] | 2012 [2] | 2013 [3] | 2014 [4] | 2015 [5] | 2016 [6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | | | | | ||
| Egypt | | | | | ||
| Iran | | | ||||
| Malaysia | | | | | | |
| Nigeria | | | | | ||
| Pakistan | | | | | ||
| Philippines | | | | | ||
 Qatar | | | ||||
 Ukraine | | |||||
| Vietnam | | | | | |
Three countries which would otherwise have met the criterion for the Nest were excluded: Iraq and Saudi Arabia because BBVA classifies them as frontier, not emerging markets; Iran was excluded due to sanctions and thus not a suitable target for investors. Iran would have been an EAGLE in 2012 and a nest in 2011 and 2013, Iraq and Saudi Arabia only qualified for the Nest. [3]
On September 9, 2011, Dow Jones and BBVA launched two equity indexes that allow investing in leading companies traded in Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLEs). There are two indexes, "Dow Jones BBVA EAGLEs" [7] and "Dow Jones BBVA EAGLEs Optimized", [8] both composed of a set of 50 companies.
The allocation by country is macro driven according to the contribution each EAGLE is going to make to incremental GDP within the group, in the next ten years. It is a dynamic index which changes its composition along with macro forecasts; hence it is an adaptive index when compared with other static peers. Revisions are made annually in March to update the indices compositions according to the latest macroeconomic forecasts. It is also a liquid index which provides a diversified exposure to Emerging Markets. In order to facilitate index replication by foreign investment firms, the sample of 50 companies is chosen from the Dow Jones Global Total Stock Market Index, plus HK and US listed Chinese companies.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced in a specific time period by countries. Due to its complex and subjective nature this measure is often revised before being considered a reliable indicator. GDP (nominal) per capita does not, however, reflect differences in the cost of living and the inflation rates of the countries; therefore, using a basis of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) may be more useful when comparing living standards between nations, while nominal GDP is more useful comparing national economies on the international market. Total GDP can also be broken down into the contribution of each industry or sector of the economy. The ratio of GDP to the total population of the region is the per capita GDP.
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The world economy or global economy is the economy of all humans of the world, referring to the global economic system, which includes all economic activities which are conducted both within and between nations, including production, consumption, economic management, work in general, exchange of financial values and trade of goods and services. In some contexts, the two terms are distinct "international" or "global economy" being measured separately and distinguished from national economies, while the "world economy" is simply an aggregate of the separate countries' measurements. Beyond the minimum standard concerning value in production, use and exchange, the definitions, representations, models and valuations of the world economy vary widely. It is inseparable from the geography and ecology of planet Earth.
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An emerging market is a market that has some characteristics of a developed market, but does not fully meet its standards. This includes markets that may become developed markets in the future or were in the past. The term "frontier market" is used for developing countries with smaller, riskier, or more illiquid capital markets than "emerging". As of 2006, the economies of China and India are considered to be the largest emerging markets. According to The Economist, many people find the term outdated, but no new term has gained traction. Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion. The 10 largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal or PPP-adjusted GDP are 4 of the 5 BRICS countries along with Indonesia, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan and Turkey.
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Terence James O'Neill, Baron O'Neill of Gatley is a British economist best known for coining BRICs, the acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China—the four once rapidly developing countries that were thought to challenge the global economic power of the developed G7 economies. He is also a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and former Conservative government minister. As of January 2014, he is an Honorary Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester. He was appointed Commercial Secretary to the Treasury in the Second Cameron Ministry, a position he held until his resignation on 23 September 2016. He chaired the UK's Independent Review into Antimicrobial Resistance for two years, which completed its work in May 2016. Since 2008, he has written monthly columns for international media organization Project Syndicate. He is the current chairman of the Council of Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs.
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